Alcoa

AA-N

Analysis and Opinions about AA-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 9, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 26/19, Down 18%) He sold it in September.
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Alcoa (AA-N)
March 9, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 26/19, Down 18%) He sold it in September.
SELL
SELL
January 30, 2020
He sold last year. It has since taken another hammering. Aluminum price will benefit from a stronger economy. This is a light metal and so every new generation of cars and airplanes will use it. There is nothing special about AA-N and it is a difficult place to be.
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Alcoa (AA-N)
January 30, 2020
He sold last year. It has since taken another hammering. Aluminum price will benefit from a stronger economy. This is a light metal and so every new generation of cars and airplanes will use it. There is nothing special about AA-N and it is a difficult place to be.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
May 7, 2019
A cyclical stock, so wait till it's beaten up. AA is in good shape with strong cash flow and they're a low-cost producer. China has cut back on capacity, so we're close to a turn.
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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 7, 2019
A cyclical stock, so wait till it's beaten up. AA is in good shape with strong cash flow and they're a low-cost producer. China has cut back on capacity, so we're close to a turn.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 26, 2019
Aluminum is a growth metal because it's light. Incredibly low price. Deleveraged, cut costs. Still generating free cash flow at low commodity prices. Don't need much to go right to move forward significantly. Aluminum prices are bottoming, he thinks. Over time, demand will grow. Sees earnings doubling over the next year or two, which will impact the stock price. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $38.82)
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Alcoa (AA-N)
March 26, 2019
Aluminum is a growth metal because it's light. Incredibly low price. Deleveraged, cut costs. Still generating free cash flow at low commodity prices. Don't need much to go right to move forward significantly. Aluminum prices are bottoming, he thinks. Over time, demand will grow. Sees earnings doubling over the next year or two, which will impact the stock price. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $38.82)
BUY
BUY
January 31, 2019
Only metal stock they hold. He is bullish on aluminium prices as there is demand from the automotive sector. The best in the business. A volatile stock. OK to own if you have a relatively long term horizon (5 years +).
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Alcoa (AA-N)
January 31, 2019
Only metal stock they hold. He is bullish on aluminium prices as there is demand from the automotive sector. The best in the business. A volatile stock. OK to own if you have a relatively long term horizon (5 years +).
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 2, 2018

(A Top Pick November 28, 2017. Down 4%). Alcoa suffered from the trade barriers, but with the USMCA agreements, he thinks that the tariffs will come off and Alcoa will do better.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
October 2, 2018

(A Top Pick November 28, 2017. Down 4%). Alcoa suffered from the trade barriers, but with the USMCA agreements, he thinks that the tariffs will come off and Alcoa will do better.

HOLD
HOLD
May 23, 2018

Metals look interesting, but he would consider other names before Alcoa. Hold, don't sell this.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 23, 2018

Metals look interesting, but he would consider other names before Alcoa. Hold, don't sell this.

BUY
BUY
May 7, 2018

Aluminum remains a growth metal. He owns it because Aluminum is in a sweet spot as Chinese production has come off. You rent this stock, you don't own it. It is the right moment in time for this one.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 7, 2018

Aluminum remains a growth metal. He owns it because Aluminum is in a sweet spot as Chinese production has come off. You rent this stock, you don't own it. It is the right moment in time for this one.

BUY
BUY
April 9, 2018

A cyclical stock. Aluminum is in a sweet spot as the Chinese cut back on capacity. There'll be a premium of aluminum prices. Rent, don't buy this stock. There could be share buybacks and dividend increases next year. Earnings will
double in the next three years.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
April 9, 2018

A cyclical stock. Aluminum is in a sweet spot as the Chinese cut back on capacity. There'll be a premium of aluminum prices. Rent, don't buy this stock. There could be share buybacks and dividend increases next year. Earnings will
double in the next three years.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 3, 2018

A tough one to analyse. They’ve put themselves in the position of being a low-cost producer of aluminum. Being a low-cost producer of aluminum is a mixed blessing, because you have high cost Chinese competitors that don't have to make money. They can lose unlimited sums.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
January 3, 2018

A tough one to analyse. They’ve put themselves in the position of being a low-cost producer of aluminum. Being a low-cost producer of aluminum is a mixed blessing, because you have high cost Chinese competitors that don't have to make money. They can lose unlimited sums.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 28, 2017

Spun off its Arconic unit last year, making it a pure aluminum play again. Aluminum is in the sweet spot of metals, because it is a growth metal. Because it’s a light and strong metal, every new generation of cars and planes uses more aluminum, being more fuel efficient. They have a pristine balance sheet and minimal debt. Throwing off massive free cash flow. After years of suffering through very weak pricing environment for aluminum and alumina, the pricing cycle is starting to turn. A low-cost producer and poised to generate significant earnings growth. Trading at 28.7X trailing 12 months earnings, and he is looking for earnings to double over the next 3 years. As a cyclical company, you have to buy when the PE is high, and sell when the PE is low and it looks like a cheap stock. (Analysts’ price target is $55.)

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Alcoa (AA-N)
November 28, 2017

Spun off its Arconic unit last year, making it a pure aluminum play again. Aluminum is in the sweet spot of metals, because it is a growth metal. Because it’s a light and strong metal, every new generation of cars and planes uses more aluminum, being more fuel efficient. They have a pristine balance sheet and minimal debt. Throwing off massive free cash flow. After years of suffering through very weak pricing environment for aluminum and alumina, the pricing cycle is starting to turn. A low-cost producer and poised to generate significant earnings growth. Trading at 28.7X trailing 12 months earnings, and he is looking for earnings to double over the next 3 years. As a cyclical company, you have to buy when the PE is high, and sell when the PE is low and it looks like a cheap stock. (Analysts’ price target is $55.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 23, 2017

The only mining stock he owns, because aluminum is a growth metal. Because it is light, every new generation of cars and planes has more aluminum. Aluminum has been in a down cycle for a long time. Alcoa has split itself into 2 companies. For aluminum, the up cycle is now here. This is a cyclical stock, so when it starts going up even further and looks really, really cheap, it is probably time to start looking at selling it, because it is a pure aluminum play.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
October 23, 2017

The only mining stock he owns, because aluminum is a growth metal. Because it is light, every new generation of cars and planes has more aluminum. Aluminum has been in a down cycle for a long time. Alcoa has split itself into 2 companies. For aluminum, the up cycle is now here. This is a cyclical stock, so when it starts going up even further and looks really, really cheap, it is probably time to start looking at selling it, because it is a pure aluminum play.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 24, 2017

Chart shows this was in a gently trending down-trend since February, and then broke out in June. The stock looks great, plus it is metal products and materials seem to be doing okay right now. The price of aluminum seems to be in an uptrend right now.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 24, 2017

Chart shows this was in a gently trending down-trend since February, and then broke out in June. The stock looks great, plus it is metal products and materials seem to be doing okay right now. The price of aluminum seems to be in an uptrend right now.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 6, 2017

Being in the materials based metals space, it will be a beneficiary in a cyclical environment where earnings are going to start to grow. Share price has weakened off a little, along with the rest of the market. It has come down to the 100-day moving average which could be interesting. RSI is down to about 45, and it hit oversold levels about a week ago. It is certainly a name you could consider owning.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
April 6, 2017

Being in the materials based metals space, it will be a beneficiary in a cyclical environment where earnings are going to start to grow. Share price has weakened off a little, along with the rest of the market. It has come down to the 100-day moving average which could be interesting. RSI is down to about 45, and it hit oversold levels about a week ago. It is certainly a name you could consider owning.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 24, 2016

Split into 2 companies, Alcoa (AA-N) and Arconic (ARNC-N). He likes them both. Alcoa is a classic deep cyclical, where he bought it down 75%. Shares have rallied, but this is the commodity side. With all the shutdowns, aluminum demand is outstripping supply, so Alcoa has started to rally, with the new US rule requiring more aluminum content in cars. Arconic is a great value added area. These are cyclicals, so you buy them when they have no earnings, and sell them when they are selling at 6X earnings.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
November 24, 2016

Split into 2 companies, Alcoa (AA-N) and Arconic (ARNC-N). He likes them both. Alcoa is a classic deep cyclical, where he bought it down 75%. Shares have rallied, but this is the commodity side. With all the shutdowns, aluminum demand is outstripping supply, so Alcoa has started to rally, with the new US rule requiring more aluminum content in cars. Arconic is a great value added area. These are cyclicals, so you buy them when they have no earnings, and sell them when they are selling at 6X earnings.

SELL
SELL
November 15, 2016

Manufacturers of aluminum have not been very good stocks. Profit margins are not very good. He does not like to own stocks that lose money at the bottom of a cycle, and this is certainly one of those companies. There is a lot of risk with this.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
November 15, 2016

Manufacturers of aluminum have not been very good stocks. Profit margins are not very good. He does not like to own stocks that lose money at the bottom of a cycle, and this is certainly one of those companies. There is a lot of risk with this.

SELL
SELL
September 2, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Not particularly good momentum, highly volatile and low ROE’s. Has not been able to grow earnings. This is a Short for him.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
September 2, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Not particularly good momentum, highly volatile and low ROE’s. Has not been able to grow earnings. This is a Short for him.

WAIT
WAIT
May 20, 2016

Wouldn’t go into this just yet. It is still firmly in the value investor camp. Starting to gain traction and commodity stabilization is starting.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 20, 2016

Wouldn’t go into this just yet. It is still firmly in the value investor camp. Starting to gain traction and commodity stabilization is starting.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 19, 2016

(Top Pick June 2/15, Down 29.16%) They are a low cost producer and can still generate cash flow at reduced commodity prices. You have to step in at low prices because if you wait for the commodity price to increase you will miss it.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 19, 2016

(Top Pick June 2/15, Down 29.16%) They are a low cost producer and can still generate cash flow at reduced commodity prices. You have to step in at low prices because if you wait for the commodity price to increase you will miss it.

WAIT
WAIT
April 13, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) This is looking a little bit cleaner now and has gone through some really tough stuff. He would give it a little more time.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
April 13, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) This is looking a little bit cleaner now and has gone through some really tough stuff. He would give it a little more time.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 6, 2016

This is a Short for him. It falls into the cyclical category of stocks, but doesn’t hit enough of his metrics to be a Buy. Low ROE at 6%. It also has a debt problem. Weak price momentum. Very volatile. 1.3% dividend yield.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
April 6, 2016

This is a Short for him. It falls into the cyclical category of stocks, but doesn’t hit enough of his metrics to be a Buy. Low ROE at 6%. It also has a debt problem. Weak price momentum. Very volatile. 1.3% dividend yield.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 9, 2016

A pretty solid company. They are splitting their upstream and downstream operations. She is not putting money into the commodity space as she would rather wait for everything to stabilize.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
February 9, 2016

A pretty solid company. They are splitting their upstream and downstream operations. She is not putting money into the commodity space as she would rather wait for everything to stabilize.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 2, 2016

Chart shows a rounded bottom running from 2011 to 2014, and then it topped. A classic top with a bunch of peaks, and then it broke the neck line, tested, and then fell further. Since that time it has been pretty much in a downtrend. Until it bases, he wouldn’t touch this.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
February 2, 2016

Chart shows a rounded bottom running from 2011 to 2014, and then it topped. A classic top with a bunch of peaks, and then it broke the neck line, tested, and then fell further. Since that time it has been pretty much in a downtrend. Until it bases, he wouldn’t touch this.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 21, 2016

Tied to the commodity complex and so he shies away from it. They are not in control of the commodity. There has been a historic oversupply of aluminum.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
January 21, 2016

Tied to the commodity complex and so he shies away from it. They are not in control of the commodity. There has been a historic oversupply of aluminum.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 12, 2016

In the process of splitting into 2 different companies. Commodity will be one and “value added” the other. US auto demand, in terms of aluminum, will be rising sharply over the next couple of years because of new emission standards. Every time they increase emission standards, cars incorporate more aluminum. Increasing Chinese supply has been putting pressure on aluminum pricing. Supply demand is slowly coming back into a better picture, and he thinks over time this is worth double the current share price.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
January 12, 2016

In the process of splitting into 2 different companies. Commodity will be one and “value added” the other. US auto demand, in terms of aluminum, will be rising sharply over the next couple of years because of new emission standards. Every time they increase emission standards, cars incorporate more aluminum. Increasing Chinese supply has been putting pressure on aluminum pricing. Supply demand is slowly coming back into a better picture, and he thinks over time this is worth double the current share price.

PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
January 11, 2016

We are back to the $8 level that it was at when they took it out of the DOW. You have to think there is value here as it is at the lows of 2012/2013. He would have half a position right now.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
January 11, 2016

We are back to the $8 level that it was at when they took it out of the DOW. You have to think there is value here as it is at the lows of 2012/2013. He would have half a position right now.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 25, 2015

Doesn’t have a lot of investments in base metals because the dollar is strong and there is weakening demand from emerging markets. They are splitting the company in 2. Aluminum is not a commodity that China needs to import. They can produce it domestically.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
November 25, 2015

Doesn’t have a lot of investments in base metals because the dollar is strong and there is weakening demand from emerging markets. They are splitting the company in 2. Aluminum is not a commodity that China needs to import. They can produce it domestically.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 17, 2015

This has very strong seasonal characteristics. Historically it moves higher from around the latter part of November right through until late April of each year. Technically the stock is not looking good. It is still in a downward trend and has recently hit a new low. There are no signs of a bottoming yet.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
November 17, 2015

This has very strong seasonal characteristics. Historically it moves higher from around the latter part of November right through until late April of each year. Technically the stock is not looking good. It is still in a downward trend and has recently hit a new low. There are no signs of a bottoming yet.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 26, 2015

The problem is that their destiny really isn’t in their control. There has been an imbalance between supply and demand with far too much supply. Have been shuttering production for years to try and create more of a balance, but the wildcard is China which produces a ton of aluminum.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
August 26, 2015

The problem is that their destiny really isn’t in their control. There has been an imbalance between supply and demand with far too much supply. Have been shuttering production for years to try and create more of a balance, but the wildcard is China which produces a ton of aluminum.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 22, 2015

His concern is that they didn’t control a lot of their own destiny. From a supply standpoint, there was a long history of oversupply in the industry and they have shuttered 30%-35% of their production, but they don’t control China. Chinese production has increased dramatically in the last 6-12 months and have flooded the market. Aluminum prices have fallen and this company stock price has gone down.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 22, 2015

His concern is that they didn’t control a lot of their own destiny. From a supply standpoint, there was a long history of oversupply in the industry and they have shuttered 30%-35% of their production, but they don’t control China. Chinese production has increased dramatically in the last 6-12 months and have flooded the market. Aluminum prices have fallen and this company stock price has gone down.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 15, 2015

Not a big fan. They have been doing a lot of right things lately. They’ve been very, very aggressively trying to up-market their product closer to final end goods for premium industries like aerospace. Doing what they can, but aluminum is the most prevalent metal on earth. It never gets tight. Has had very little earnings growth for a very long time, and doesn’t have a ridiculously low multiple.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 15, 2015

Not a big fan. They have been doing a lot of right things lately. They’ve been very, very aggressively trying to up-market their product closer to final end goods for premium industries like aerospace. Doing what they can, but aluminum is the most prevalent metal on earth. It never gets tight. Has had very little earnings growth for a very long time, and doesn’t have a ridiculously low multiple.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 13, 2015

So much of the aluminum story depends on how well China is doing. There are some exciting things happening in aluminum. Aircraft sales are way up, and Ford (F-N) has moved into aluminum bodies for trucks. Until commodity prices start to get a little more stabilized, he doesn’t see money moving into the sector. A lot of these manufacturing companies are not about revenue gain, but operating cost cutting.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 13, 2015

So much of the aluminum story depends on how well China is doing. There are some exciting things happening in aluminum. Aircraft sales are way up, and Ford (F-N) has moved into aluminum bodies for trucks. Until commodity prices start to get a little more stabilized, he doesn’t see money moving into the sector. A lot of these manufacturing companies are not about revenue gain, but operating cost cutting.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 6, 2015

His outlook is not good near to medium term. Your major buyer is China, but they actually produce aluminum themselves. The outlook is not good.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
July 6, 2015

His outlook is not good near to medium term. Your major buyer is China, but they actually produce aluminum themselves. The outlook is not good.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 3, 2015

This has turned itself from a metal basher into manufactured products. As the weight of a car or a plane comes down, aluminum is used more and more. Over the last year, this one is off about 7%. It is probably worthwhile putting in a longer-term position, as they should do well because of its major product and what it does with it will be used more and more.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
June 3, 2015

This has turned itself from a metal basher into manufactured products. As the weight of a car or a plane comes down, aluminum is used more and more. Over the last year, this one is off about 7%. It is probably worthwhile putting in a longer-term position, as they should do well because of its major product and what it does with it will be used more and more.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 2, 2015

This has been over $30 five times in the last 15 years. It is a cyclical company, so you have to rent it, not own it. They are in a sweet spot right now. Have made a bunch of acquisitions and have gotten more into the value added part of the aluminum business. Aluminum prices are historically low, but this is still throwing off free cash flow. Earnings are at about $1 a share and US auto demand is going to rise 25% over the next couple of years, simply because of emission standards. Dividend yield of 0.95%.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
June 2, 2015

This has been over $30 five times in the last 15 years. It is a cyclical company, so you have to rent it, not own it. They are in a sweet spot right now. Have made a bunch of acquisitions and have gotten more into the value added part of the aluminum business. Aluminum prices are historically low, but this is still throwing off free cash flow. Earnings are at about $1 a share and US auto demand is going to rise 25% over the next couple of years, simply because of emission standards. Dividend yield of 0.95%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 26, 2015

If he had to own a commodity, aluminum might be one that he might want to look at. The problem with this company is that aluminum is the one commodity that they actually make and export out of China. He wouldn’t have too much money in commodities at all right now.

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Alcoa (AA-N)
May 26, 2015

If he had to own a commodity, aluminum might be one that he might want to look at. The problem with this company is that aluminum is the one commodity that they actually make and export out of China. He wouldn’t have too much money in commodities at all right now.