Pacific Exploration & Production.

PRE-T

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Analysis and Opinions about PRE-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 29, 2016

(A Top Pick March 23/15. Up 78.95%.) *A Short* Overall this was a good short at the time. He closed it off when oil rebounded. With Shorts you have to have a much narrower window because things can turn around.

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(A Top Pick March 23/15. Up 78.95%.) *A Short* Overall this was a good short at the time. He closed it off when oil rebounded. With Shorts you have to have a much narrower window because things can turn around.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 6, 2015

It is in a terribly financial situation. They were deploying capital into several countries and now debt to cash flow is very high.

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It is in a terribly financial situation. They were deploying capital into several countries and now debt to cash flow is very high.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 23, 2015

Short. They were not able to extend the life of the rubiales field, which drives 40% of their value in production, a balance sheet that is getting worse, there is a lot of insider selling, their reserves are grossly overstated, and they are giving to a charity they control. It is likely to face a reserve write down and then eventual extinction.

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Short. They were not able to extend the life of the rubiales field, which drives 40% of their value in production, a balance sheet that is getting worse, there is a lot of insider selling, their reserves are grossly overstated, and they are giving to a charity they control. It is likely to face a reserve write down and then eventual extinction.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 18, 2015

Got out of this some time ago. Feels it has some detrimental aspects that you have to recognize. Some of their major fields will revert back to the Colombian government in a relatively short time. Haven’t been that good in terms of their ability to produce some of the fields. Discoveries have not kept up in terms of the quality and size.

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Got out of this some time ago. Feels it has some detrimental aspects that you have to recognize. Some of their major fields will revert back to the Colombian government in a relatively short time. Haven’t been that good in terms of their ability to produce some of the fields. Discoveries have not kept up in terms of the quality and size.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 12, 2015

Doesn’t follow this one that closely, but the dividend is definitely in danger. It is over 20% right now. They are paying a dividend based on an asset that they literally have to turn over to Ecopetrol next year. They haven’t enough current cash flow for that asset.

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Doesn’t follow this one that closely, but the dividend is definitely in danger. It is over 20% right now. They are paying a dividend based on an asset that they literally have to turn over to Ecopetrol next year. They haven’t enough current cash flow for that asset.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 2, 2015

You have to play the safer names in energy. He would not roll the dice on this one. Play a little more safe, better balance sheet, etc. Prefers RRX-T.

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You have to play the safer names in energy. He would not roll the dice on this one. Play a little more safe, better balance sheet, etc. Prefers RRX-T.

HOLD
HOLD
January 23, 2015

Would recommend you sell this, because the biggest risk is that their licenses in Columbia are coming due and they will lose a lot of their properties. If you want to hold oil, switch to another company.

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Would recommend you sell this, because the biggest risk is that their licenses in Columbia are coming due and they will lose a lot of their properties. If you want to hold oil, switch to another company.

SELL
SELL
January 22, 2015

He got out about 6 months ago. Management kept missing their objectives. There were questions about leases reverting back to the Columbian government. He feels the risks are still there. Take your losses and move on.

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He got out about 6 months ago. Management kept missing their objectives. There were questions about leases reverting back to the Columbian government. He feels the risks are still there. Take your losses and move on.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 29, 2014

This or an oil sands play? You want to be in a large cap company rather than a smaller one, particularly when the commodity price is not hitting new highs. If you look at some of the oil Sands plays, particularly Suncor (SU-T), it has some very attractive properties, where the breakeven cost for them is in the high $20. Thinks the internationals, such as this one, are deeply oversold. Until you see that commodity move up substantially, $100 and above, he doesn't think you get a catalyst for these names.

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This or an oil sands play? You want to be in a large cap company rather than a smaller one, particularly when the commodity price is not hitting new highs. If you look at some of the oil Sands plays, particularly Suncor (SU-T), it has some very attractive properties, where the breakeven cost for them is in the high $20. Thinks the internationals, such as this one, are deeply oversold. Until you see that commodity move up substantially, $100 and above, he doesn't think you get a catalyst for these names.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 15, 2014

Closed at $21.18 and his model price is $34.34, a 62% upside. However, he doesn’t think the stock will trade above $23. That has been the ceiling of the stock in terms of his valuation. Nice yield of 3.4%.

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Closed at $21.18 and his model price is $34.34, a 62% upside. However, he doesn’t think the stock will trade above $23. That has been the ceiling of the stock in terms of his valuation. Nice yield of 3.4%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 24, 2014

Just came into existence about 10 years ago and today it is a very big oil/gas producer. Primarily in Colombia but has operations in other parts of South America also. Got a great deal to operate the Rubiales field, but only until 2016 so the expiry date is only 2 years away. In the last year or 2, they have been making a lot of acquisitions to try and diversify away from that. In negotiations to try to extend their contract, but if they get it, it probably won’t be as good in terms as what they had. A lot of uncertainty so people on margin have been selling.

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Just came into existence about 10 years ago and today it is a very big oil/gas producer. Primarily in Colombia but has operations in other parts of South America also. Got a great deal to operate the Rubiales field, but only until 2016 so the expiry date is only 2 years away. In the last year or 2, they have been making a lot of acquisitions to try and diversify away from that. In negotiations to try to extend their contract, but if they get it, it probably won’t be as good in terms as what they had. A lot of uncertainty so people on margin have been selling.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
March 17, 2014

Problem with Columbian plays is the shorter reserve life indexes so you have to develop properties faster. Political risk is not higher than in the past. The assets in Canada are cheaper than Columbian ones.

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Problem with Columbian plays is the shorter reserve life indexes so you have to develop properties faster. Political risk is not higher than in the past. The assets in Canada are cheaper than Columbian ones.

SELL
SELL
February 28, 2014

Likes the assets in Columbia but there are some issues. They have diversified very well. He would not be adding and would prefer Canadian oil companies. He can’t sell because of being in a tax account.

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Likes the assets in Columbia but there are some issues. They have diversified very well. He would not be adding and would prefer Canadian oil companies. He can’t sell because of being in a tax account.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 21, 2014

(Top Pick Feb 27/13, Down 33.47%) There is concern over decline rates being high, but they have a new discovery in Peru. Someone has been selling it like there is no tomorrow. He is going to hang in because analysts are saying it is a $20 or $30 stock. Someone in Columbia knows something we don’t know and is selling the stock. Yield is 3.5%. It is cheap right now. He is going to wait them out.

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(Top Pick Feb 27/13, Down 33.47%) There is concern over decline rates being high, but they have a new discovery in Peru. Someone has been selling it like there is no tomorrow. He is going to hang in because analysts are saying it is a $20 or $30 stock. Someone in Columbia knows something we don’t know and is selling the stock. Yield is 3.5%. It is cheap right now. He is going to wait them out.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 24, 2014

Likes that they are consolidating a lot of oil production out of Colombia. Well managed company. Wait to see how the integration of all the companies comes through. An issue that some of the companies have is that their licenses are coming due, which might cause some issues on production going forward.

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Likes that they are consolidating a lot of oil production out of Colombia. Well managed company. Wait to see how the integration of all the companies comes through. An issue that some of the companies have is that their licenses are coming due, which might cause some issues on production going forward.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 12, 2013

(A Top Pick Dec 13/12. Down 17.55%.) Still feels the company has a lot of potential, but the marketplace just hasn’t been too kind. Increasing production and getting their permits. Haven’t made any mistakes. 3% dividend.

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(A Top Pick Dec 13/12. Down 17.55%.) Still feels the company has a lot of potential, but the marketplace just hasn’t been too kind. Increasing production and getting their permits. Haven’t made any mistakes. 3% dividend.

BUY
BUY
November 7, 2013

(Market Call Minute.) Very attractively priced. Trading at 2.4X cash flow versus its international peers at 3.6.

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(Market Call Minute.) Very attractively priced. Trading at 2.4X cash flow versus its international peers at 3.6.

BUY
BUY
October 28, 2013

Has been growing fast by buying up and consolidating Colombian oil companies and he can see this continuing. Colombian government has not been especially friendly to the mining side and has affected its paralysis by lack of decisions. The oil side has been working pretty well.

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Has been growing fast by buying up and consolidating Colombian oil companies and he can see this continuing. Colombian government has not been especially friendly to the mining side and has affected its paralysis by lack of decisions. The oil side has been working pretty well.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 22, 2013

(A Top Pick Oct 19/12. Down 7%.) They just made an acquisition and took some write-downs that have not made him very enthusiastic. Expecting good growth potential. A lot of opportunities in the area of Colombia they are working. Dividend is up to about 3%.

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(A Top Pick Oct 19/12. Down 7%.) They just made an acquisition and took some write-downs that have not made him very enthusiastic. Expecting good growth potential. A lot of opportunities in the area of Colombia they are working. Dividend is up to about 3%.

BUY
BUY
October 11, 2013

International oils are getting a 2nd look and this one, along with some of the other names are looking good. The problem with this had been a shorter reserve life, but the recent acquisition will help the life a little bit. Valuation is going up with international oils. They are in Colombia, so there are obviously some political risks, but it is somewhat more stable than people would believe. 3% dividend yield.

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International oils are getting a 2nd look and this one, along with some of the other names are looking good. The problem with this had been a shorter reserve life, but the recent acquisition will help the life a little bit. Valuation is going up with international oils. They are in Colombia, so there are obviously some political risks, but it is somewhat more stable than people would believe. 3% dividend yield.

BUY
BUY
August 19, 2013

He would buy it here. It is a pretty good name and trading line with its peers. Had good results in Peru and Brazil. $26 would be optimistic for a one year target.

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He would buy it here. It is a pretty good name and trading line with its peers. Had good results in Peru and Brazil. $26 would be optimistic for a one year target.

HOLD
HOLD
April 22, 2013

Excellent company. Located in Colombia, Peru and Brazil and have had some good results. Looks very attractive but unfortunately, people tend to throw the baby out with the bathwater when commodities come under pressure. Guilt by association rather than the fundamentals.

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Excellent company. Located in Colombia, Peru and Brazil and have had some good results. Looks very attractive but unfortunately, people tend to throw the baby out with the bathwater when commodities come under pressure. Guilt by association rather than the fundamentals.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 27, 2013

Largest independent oil producer in Colombia and have lots of drillable property. Selling into international markets, which are significantly higher than in North America. Just made a gas discovery in Colombia. Trades at a very reasonable multiple. Dividend yield of 1.8%.

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Largest independent oil producer in Colombia and have lots of drillable property. Selling into international markets, which are significantly higher than in North America. Just made a gas discovery in Colombia. Trades at a very reasonable multiple. Dividend yield of 1.8%.

BUY
BUY
January 15, 2013

(Market Call Minute.) Good name. Good growth and should continue to do well. Relatively attractive valuation.

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(Market Call Minute.) Good name. Good growth and should continue to do well. Relatively attractive valuation.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 13, 2012

Very low multiple. Indifferent payout but he considers it a growth stock. Selling into the international market. Suspects that they will get back into Venezuela in the next little while. In the meantime, they have great drilling prospects, production is increasing at a good rate and a good recommendations from people that know, in the oil patch. Very reasonable price.

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Very low multiple. Indifferent payout but he considers it a growth stock. Selling into the international market. Suspects that they will get back into Venezuela in the next little while. In the meantime, they have great drilling prospects, production is increasing at a good rate and a good recommendations from people that know, in the oil patch. Very reasonable price.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 19, 2012

Relatively low dividend but great success in finding oil in Colombia, which he feels is a reasonable political environment. Trades at a very low multiple. Results have been very consistent. Also, they are getting international prices.

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Relatively low dividend but great success in finding oil in Colombia, which he feels is a reasonable political environment. Trades at a very low multiple. Results have been very consistent. Also, they are getting international prices.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 19, 2012

Has no exposure to Colombia, which has been a disaster the past 1-1.5 years. The agency that issues environmental and drilling permits has had enormous backlogs. At the same time there has been an increase in kidnappings and pipeline bombings.

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Has no exposure to Colombia, which has been a disaster the past 1-1.5 years. The agency that issues environmental and drilling permits has had enormous backlogs. At the same time there has been an increase in kidnappings and pipeline bombings.

HOLD
HOLD
June 25, 2012
Made a series of confusing acquisitions. Given uncertainty of growth out to 2016 when they loose the field, he would not step into it.
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Made a series of confusing acquisitions. Given uncertainty of growth out to 2016 when they loose the field, he would not step into it.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 7, 2012
(A Top Pick Feb 1/11. Down 23.43%.) Colombian oil/gas stocks tailed off in the correction last year. Probably because they were too promoted. Have a process that they might employ in the fracking area. Thinks it is very solid longer-term.
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(A Top Pick Feb 1/11. Down 23.43%.) Colombian oil/gas stocks tailed off in the correction last year. Probably because they were too promoted. Have a process that they might employ in the fracking area. Thinks it is very solid longer-term.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 10, 2012
(Top Pick Feb 1/11, Down 35.28%) Whole Colombian territory was on the boil and they came off the boil. In this case there are some analysts that don’t like the company on a promotional aspect.
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(Top Pick Feb 1/11, Down 35.28%) Whole Colombian territory was on the boil and they came off the boil. In this case there are some analysts that don’t like the company on a promotional aspect.
BUY
BUY
December 9, 2011
Doesn't pay a dividend so it is a growth stock. Operates in Colombia. Has taken quite a beating recently. He still likes the company. There were some downgrades in terms of their potential production. It is definitely trading in a Buy range.
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Doesn't pay a dividend so it is a growth stock. Operates in Colombia. Has taken quite a beating recently. He still likes the company. There were some downgrades in terms of their potential production. It is definitely trading in a Buy range.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 22, 2011
A fantastic growth story in Columbia but right now, the momentum is coming off. They have a depleting asset with all kinds of contract issues. There is no way to know where it is going to come off to.
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A fantastic growth story in Columbia but right now, the momentum is coming off. They have a depleting asset with all kinds of contract issues. There is no way to know where it is going to come off to.
BUY
BUY
November 15, 2011
There are a couple of overhangs on this stock. Infrastructure challenges in Colombia, labour issues and permitting. At this price and valuation it is attractive.
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There are a couple of overhangs on this stock. Infrastructure challenges in Colombia, labour issues and permitting. At this price and valuation it is attractive.
BUY
BUY
October 21, 2011
Virgin territory in Colombia, which has turned around politically. Improvement in production has been substantial. They have no problems getting licensing or getting the pipelines in.
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Virgin territory in Colombia, which has turned around politically. Improvement in production has been substantial. They have no problems getting licensing or getting the pipelines in.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 16, 2011
Core value of about $23. Risk (?) value to their upside to their exploration is about $35, so they have about 10% downside but 35% upside. That is not enough given that management's track record in the past year.
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Core value of about $23. Risk (?) value to their upside to their exploration is about $35, so they have about 10% downside but 35% upside. That is not enough given that management's track record in the past year.
BUY
BUY
July 18, 2011
Is a name he would start getting back into. Political situation is relatively stable. It doesn’t concern him like Peru. A decent name. Nibble away at it.
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Is a name he would start getting back into. Political situation is relatively stable. It doesn’t concern him like Peru. A decent name. Nibble away at it.