Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

Analysis and Opinions about CNQ-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 12, 2018

He is constructive on the oil price. As demand season picks up here and as differentials narrow, it will be good for them. The free cash flow is going north. They are through the Horizons build. They had a 20% dividend increase. The stock is down year to date, so it is a good level to be accumulating. (Analysts’ target: $51.94).

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He is constructive on the oil price. As demand season picks up here and as differentials narrow, it will be good for them. The free cash flow is going north. They are through the Horizons build. They had a 20% dividend increase. The stock is down year to date, so it is a good level to be accumulating. (Analysts’ target: $51.94).

HOLD
HOLD
March 7, 2018

Good long-term core position. Increased their dividend. The business is doing fine. All energy stocks have come off lately, but CNQ is one of the best ones.

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Good long-term core position. Increased their dividend. The business is doing fine. All energy stocks have come off lately, but CNQ is one of the best ones.

BUY
BUY
March 1, 2018

This is the only large-cap oil company he owns. He has preferred CNQ and Suncor for a while, as the two large-cap oil companies to own. CNQ is a better business than Husky Energy. It has a better cash-flow than Husky.

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This is the only large-cap oil company he owns. He has preferred CNQ and Suncor for a while, as the two large-cap oil companies to own. CNQ is a better business than Husky Energy. It has a better cash-flow than Husky.

HOLD
HOLD
February 15, 2018

Focused on heavy oil and acquisition related growth. They garner the most international interest. He took profits on CNQ-T recently but it is a great core name to own. RDS-N holds $4 Billion in CNQ-T and at some point he thinks they will put it back into the market. He would wait for that block to trade if it was going to, but who knows when.

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Focused on heavy oil and acquisition related growth. They garner the most international interest. He took profits on CNQ-T recently but it is a great core name to own. RDS-N holds $4 Billion in CNQ-T and at some point he thinks they will put it back into the market. He would wait for that block to trade if it was going to, but who knows when.

WATCH
WATCH
February 13, 2018

She is not buying energy now because of her overall negative view of the Canadian energy market at this time. If she was going to buy at this time, she would buy a large producer and she would specifically prefer CNQ because it is well diversified, has a very strong balance sheet, and she likes its management.

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She is not buying energy now because of her overall negative view of the Canadian energy market at this time. If she was going to buy at this time, she would buy a large producer and she would specifically prefer CNQ because it is well diversified, has a very strong balance sheet, and she likes its management.

BUY
BUY
February 7, 2018

CNQ-T vs SU-T. Both companies suffer from wider heavy oil differentials. He really likes CNQ over Suncor because it is gushing with free cash flow (he estimates $2.3 billion this year). CNQ Horizon expansion added 70,000 bpd of production. He owns CNQ bonds and equity. (Analysts’ price target for CNQ-T is $52 )

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CNQ-T vs SU-T. Both companies suffer from wider heavy oil differentials. He really likes CNQ over Suncor because it is gushing with free cash flow (he estimates $2.3 billion this year). CNQ Horizon expansion added 70,000 bpd of production. He owns CNQ bonds and equity. (Analysts’ price target for CNQ-T is $52 )

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
February 5, 2018

VET-T vs. CNQ-T. VET-T is trading a bit more expensively. She likes the CNQ-T story better from a valuation perspective.

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VET-T vs. CNQ-T. VET-T is trading a bit more expensively. She likes the CNQ-T story better from a valuation perspective.

HOLD
HOLD
January 25, 2018

Near its 52 week high but well above its lows. Until you see better pricing for Canadian heavy crude these stocks are going to have a hard time growing. We will probably see increased dividends.

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Near its 52 week high but well above its lows. Until you see better pricing for Canadian heavy crude these stocks are going to have a hard time growing. We will probably see increased dividends.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 4, 2018

(A Top Pick Feb 14/17. Up 20%.) WTI oil prices were up about 12% last year, and the E&P producers in Canada were down about 13%, but this company held its own. In terms of companies you want to own for the long-term producing energy, this is at the top of the list. Good dividend growth and free cash flow generation. This is a company that gets stronger while others are getting weaker.

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(A Top Pick Feb 14/17. Up 20%.) WTI oil prices were up about 12% last year, and the E&P producers in Canada were down about 13%, but this company held its own. In terms of companies you want to own for the long-term producing energy, this is at the top of the list. Good dividend growth and free cash flow generation. This is a company that gets stronger while others are getting weaker.

SELL
SELL
January 2, 2018

This has been the one sector that hasn't really exploded in any way on the TSX, and we are currently dealing with the top level of its history. It’s a stock you would have to watch. It needs to get up through the $46 level and has had all kinds of problems doing it through the years. He would Sell at this level.

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This has been the one sector that hasn't really exploded in any way on the TSX, and we are currently dealing with the top level of its history. It’s a stock you would have to watch. It needs to get up through the $46 level and has had all kinds of problems doing it through the years. He would Sell at this level.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 18, 2017

Canada’s energy sector is going to underperform the US. Most of what they do is oil and gas extraction: heavy oil from the oil sands. He is surprised valuation is holding up this much. He sees more downside risk than upside potential. You might be a dip buyer but it is not attractive at this point.

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Canada’s energy sector is going to underperform the US. Most of what they do is oil and gas extraction: heavy oil from the oil sands. He is surprised valuation is holding up this much. He sees more downside risk than upside potential. You might be a dip buyer but it is not attractive at this point.

WATCH
WATCH
December 18, 2017

It has held up well. It is one of the trophy names out there. More than a million barrels a day. $7.9 and 8.3 $billion in cap-X programs. They are the biggest player out there. The stock is trading above book value and you want to buy it when it gets down there. It could get pulled back in Q1. He thinks we will see a recovery from tax loss selling and then a second low. Any new bull market in energy could go into 2022/3 after the lows early next year.

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It has held up well. It is one of the trophy names out there. More than a million barrels a day. $7.9 and 8.3 $billion in cap-X programs. They are the biggest player out there. The stock is trading above book value and you want to buy it when it gets down there. It could get pulled back in Q1. He thinks we will see a recovery from tax loss selling and then a second low. Any new bull market in energy could go into 2022/3 after the lows early next year.

BUY
BUY
December 13, 2017

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Suncor (SU-T) for a longer outlook for gains? They are almost interchangeable. They are the 2 quality companies in the Canadian oil patch, and the 2 that have been able to purchase assets at good prices, while other companies were down. He owns both, and it is a coin toss as to which would do better in the next couple of years. He would be a buyer of both.

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Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Suncor (SU-T) for a longer outlook for gains? They are almost interchangeable. They are the 2 quality companies in the Canadian oil patch, and the 2 that have been able to purchase assets at good prices, while other companies were down. He owns both, and it is a coin toss as to which would do better in the next couple of years. He would be a buyer of both.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 30, 2017

SU-T vs. CNQ-T. SU-T is a great company. With CNQ-T they are the two big guys in the field. He owns neither one but he would lean a little more to CNQ-T because of better valuation. The yield is not as great but they have more potential to bump the dividend up. Unit we get a better energy environment in Canada the growth will be limited.

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SU-T vs. CNQ-T. SU-T is a great company. With CNQ-T they are the two big guys in the field. He owns neither one but he would lean a little more to CNQ-T because of better valuation. The yield is not as great but they have more potential to bump the dividend up. Unit we get a better energy environment in Canada the growth will be limited.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 29, 2017

What's a good blue-chip, dividend paying energy stock for a long term hold? He really, really likes this one, the best in class. Assuming oil ranges from $40-$60, this company is going to gush about $2.5 billion in free cash flow in 2018. They are going to pay down debt aggressively. They’ll also be increasing the dividend.

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What's a good blue-chip, dividend paying energy stock for a long term hold? He really, really likes this one, the best in class. Assuming oil ranges from $40-$60, this company is going to gush about $2.5 billion in free cash flow in 2018. They are going to pay down debt aggressively. They’ll also be increasing the dividend.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 29, 2017

His outlook for 2018 is that oil and gas prices are going to remain range bound. Would prefer energy infrastructure instead of this company. He wants exposure to companies that are going to benefit from pulling the stuff out of the ground. That includes transporting it, fractionation for gas, logistics. Companies underpinned by “fee for service” or “take or pay” contracts have a lot more visibility and a lot less commodity price exposure. This wouldn’t be his favourite.

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His outlook for 2018 is that oil and gas prices are going to remain range bound. Would prefer energy infrastructure instead of this company. He wants exposure to companies that are going to benefit from pulling the stuff out of the ground. That includes transporting it, fractionation for gas, logistics. Companies underpinned by “fee for service” or “take or pay” contracts have a lot more visibility and a lot less commodity price exposure. This wouldn’t be his favourite.

WAIT
WAIT
November 9, 2017

CNQ-T vs. SU-T. Both are up for the year because the profits are in refining. They will both generate significant cash flow. They could buy back shares or make an acquisition. Both are good for the long term but there could be weakness during tax loss selling. SU-T gives you refining stability and CNQ-T gives you oil sands growth.

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CNQ-T vs. SU-T. Both are up for the year because the profits are in refining. They will both generate significant cash flow. They could buy back shares or make an acquisition. Both are good for the long term but there could be weakness during tax loss selling. SU-T gives you refining stability and CNQ-T gives you oil sands growth.

PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
November 6, 2017

The analysts and investors love this because of the size and growth. The Horizon project has done well. The stock has continued to do well, but he worries a little that Shell is going to come out on a short-term basis. He would be more inclined to take money out of this rather than buying. The valuation is a little more expensive than it is on juniors.

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The analysts and investors love this because of the size and growth. The Horizon project has done well. The stock has continued to do well, but he worries a little that Shell is going to come out on a short-term basis. He would be more inclined to take money out of this rather than buying. The valuation is a little more expensive than it is on juniors.

HOLD
HOLD
October 11, 2017

A name she would potentially add to her portfolios if she wanted to increase her energy exposures. There is very little visibility in the next 12 months, because everyone is questioning if oil prices are going to move up. This one has held up relatively better than most of the producers.

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A name she would potentially add to her portfolios if she wanted to increase her energy exposures. There is very little visibility in the next 12 months, because everyone is questioning if oil prices are going to move up. This one has held up relatively better than most of the producers.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 26, 2017

Recently sold this as he trimmed oil stocks. He likes the company and its management. They are buying assets at what he thinks are cheap prices from distressed sellers. Likes the way it’s managed and the exposure they have. A well-run company, but he is a little concerned about the oil patch today. Prefers PrairieSky Royalty (PSK-T) which doesn’t have any operational risks.

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Recently sold this as he trimmed oil stocks. He likes the company and its management. They are buying assets at what he thinks are cheap prices from distressed sellers. Likes the way it’s managed and the exposure they have. A well-run company, but he is a little concerned about the oil patch today. Prefers PrairieSky Royalty (PSK-T) which doesn’t have any operational risks.

BUY
BUY
September 22, 2017

One of the premier oil companies in Canada. They are very astute at making acquisitions and integrating them, and have made a bunch in the last little while. Also, every time they have worked on a project through the years, they have always been on time. At this level, this should be okay.

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One of the premier oil companies in Canada. They are very astute at making acquisitions and integrating them, and have made a bunch in the last little while. Also, every time they have worked on a project through the years, they have always been on time. At this level, this should be okay.

HOLD
HOLD
September 19, 2017

Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? Both companies, relative to the other stocks in the energy index, have performed pretty well. From this point on, he likes both, and is hard-pressed to tell you which one he would choose. Both have very good growth profiles. This one has made acquisitions recently. They are both very good on M&A on an opportunistic basis. Their balance sheets have been improving steadily. Because they have both held their ground so well, there are better opportunities in some of the intermediate space, in terms of capital gains.

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Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? Both companies, relative to the other stocks in the energy index, have performed pretty well. From this point on, he likes both, and is hard-pressed to tell you which one he would choose. Both have very good growth profiles. This one has made acquisitions recently. They are both very good on M&A on an opportunistic basis. Their balance sheets have been improving steadily. Because they have both held their ground so well, there are better opportunities in some of the intermediate space, in terms of capital gains.

BUY
BUY
September 13, 2017

He likes this a lot and admires its management. Probably the foremost producer in Canada without being integrated. A real benchmark for the energy industry. Superbly run, and has always maintained a good solid balance sheet. That allows them to take advantage when opportunities arise. Lately they’ve made some significant acquisitions, and he expects that will continue going forward.

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He likes this a lot and admires its management. Probably the foremost producer in Canada without being integrated. A real benchmark for the energy industry. Superbly run, and has always maintained a good solid balance sheet. That allows them to take advantage when opportunities arise. Lately they’ve made some significant acquisitions, and he expects that will continue going forward.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
August 24, 2017

This is a great Canadian company with fabulous properties and it is well managed. You need energy to start to do something. If you are optimistic on the energy price and have a long time horizon then this is a great stock.

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This is a great Canadian company with fabulous properties and it is well managed. You need energy to start to do something. If you are optimistic on the energy price and have a long time horizon then this is a great stock.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 23, 2017

They did a good job of making acquisitions. There is an overhang of 4 billion of stock to come out at some point. They can pay down debt, increase the dividend and buy back shares with it. (Analysts’ target: $48.00).

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They did a good job of making acquisitions. There is an overhang of 4 billion of stock to come out at some point. They can pay down debt, increase the dividend and buy back shares with it. (Analysts’ target: $48.00).

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 21, 2017

It is safe here. It does not rely on higher oil prices. Once their project is done they will have a lot more cash to throw around. The downside does not look too bad. (Analysts’ target: $48.11).

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It is safe here. It does not rely on higher oil prices. Once their project is done they will have a lot more cash to throw around. The downside does not look too bad. (Analysts’ target: $48.11).

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 28, 2017

He is modelling a 69% 2017 estimated payout ratio at $53 WTI, which is probably approaching 80% right now. This company has outstanding growth. They just did an acquisition. He is modelling 20% production growth and 40% cash flow per share growth over the next couple of years. The acquisition is very accretive, but for it to work you need oil prices to cooperate. You need to have $50+ oil. He would be looking for oil companies with balance sheets closer to 1X EV to cash flow.

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He is modelling a 69% 2017 estimated payout ratio at $53 WTI, which is probably approaching 80% right now. This company has outstanding growth. They just did an acquisition. He is modelling 20% production growth and 40% cash flow per share growth over the next couple of years. The acquisition is very accretive, but for it to work you need oil prices to cooperate. You need to have $50+ oil. He would be looking for oil companies with balance sheets closer to 1X EV to cash flow.

HOLD
HOLD
July 19, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) This is a hold.

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(Market Call Minute.) This is a hold.

BUY
BUY
July 10, 2017

They have struggled recently. They are digesting an acquisition. It is going to be a play on energy prices.

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They have struggled recently. They are digesting an acquisition. It is going to be a play on energy prices.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 5, 2017

He is Short this, but it is more of a generic Short in that he needed a hedge being Long on energy. If he is wrong on energy, this company will be harmed quite a bit by a very enormous debt load.

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He is Short this, but it is more of a generic Short in that he needed a hedge being Long on energy. If he is wrong on energy, this company will be harmed quite a bit by a very enormous debt load.

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