Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

Analysis and Opinions about CNQ-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY
BUY
September 19, 2018

Energy producers have been weak this summer, but strengthening in the last few weeks. He looks for companies that thrive through too patches. CNQ is better than the group. The sector is catching a bid; the cyclicals will do better in this next part of the cycle. They will generate a lot of cash and improve their multiples. CNQ will do well.

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Energy producers have been weak this summer, but strengthening in the last few weeks. He looks for companies that thrive through too patches. CNQ is better than the group. The sector is catching a bid; the cyclicals will do better in this next part of the cycle. They will generate a lot of cash and improve their multiples. CNQ will do well.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 18, 2018

There are short term opportunities in the oil patch due to Venezuela’s collapse and restraints within Saudi Arabia. CNQ is the quality play in this sector, so someone who buys this company is not hurting themself. However, he thinks there are way better places to make money than resources. He thinks the Permian will drown the market with more oil and there are difficult issues in access to market for heavy Canadian crude. This is a well-run company but this type of business is too tough at the moment.

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There are short term opportunities in the oil patch due to Venezuela’s collapse and restraints within Saudi Arabia. CNQ is the quality play in this sector, so someone who buys this company is not hurting themself. However, he thinks there are way better places to make money than resources. He thinks the Permian will drown the market with more oil and there are difficult issues in access to market for heavy Canadian crude. This is a well-run company but this type of business is too tough at the moment.

HOLD
HOLD
September 14, 2018

This would be a conservative choice with 50% light oil exposure. He thinks there are companies with more leverage – like Cenovus. CNQ-T is a fine company and they are buying back stock.

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This would be a conservative choice with 50% light oil exposure. He thinks there are companies with more leverage – like Cenovus. CNQ-T is a fine company and they are buying back stock.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 7, 2018

(A Top Pick August 21/2017, Up 16%). Pipelines are weighing on sentiment. Just finished a big cycle of cap spending, so this frees up cash flow to pay higher dividends. Higher dividends, not growth, is the future of the oil patch. Smart in buying up distressed assets. Will be around for a long time, no matter what happens to pipelines.

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(A Top Pick August 21/2017, Up 16%). Pipelines are weighing on sentiment. Just finished a big cycle of cap spending, so this frees up cash flow to pay higher dividends. Higher dividends, not growth, is the future of the oil patch. Smart in buying up distressed assets. Will be around for a long time, no matter what happens to pipelines.

HOLD
HOLD
September 5, 2018

Along with Suncor, these are the two big boys on the block for the energy sector in Canada. CNQ-T has done some great acquisitions and have managed their balance sheet smartly. Once capital flows back into the sector, this will be an excellent holding.

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Along with Suncor, these are the two big boys on the block for the energy sector in Canada. CNQ-T has done some great acquisitions and have managed their balance sheet smartly. Once capital flows back into the sector, this will be an excellent holding.

HOLD
HOLD
August 17, 2018

It has been selling off more aggressively than integrated companies, because of their lack of refinery exposure. Their production growth and cash flow yield looks very good. They have been buying back stock. He sees better opportunities to take advantage of rising oil prices, but would continue to hold it.

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It has been selling off more aggressively than integrated companies, because of their lack of refinery exposure. Their production growth and cash flow yield looks very good. They have been buying back stock. He sees better opportunities to take advantage of rising oil prices, but would continue to hold it.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
August 13, 2018

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) vs Suncor (SU-T). Both are trophy stories of Canada. CNQ is in 2 businesses and Suncor is in 3 businesses. CNQ is in the oilsands. Suncor is in the oilsands plus the production side, and the refining business. Both are generating free cash flow. CNQ is looking at expansion in their Horizon project. Suncor has been increasing dividends and buying back stock. On weakness on either, both would be great to own.

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Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) vs Suncor (SU-T). Both are trophy stories of Canada. CNQ is in 2 businesses and Suncor is in 3 businesses. CNQ is in the oilsands. Suncor is in the oilsands plus the production side, and the refining business. Both are generating free cash flow. CNQ is looking at expansion in their Horizon project. Suncor has been increasing dividends and buying back stock. On weakness on either, both would be great to own.

BUY
BUY
July 30, 2018

VET-T vs. SU-T vs. CNQ–T. CNQ-T is the cheapest of the three in terms of price to book. It has a nice upside potential of 40% on current earnings, which have been rising at a nice clip. Buy the cheapest of the three.

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VET-T vs. SU-T vs. CNQ–T. CNQ-T is the cheapest of the three in terms of price to book. It has a nice upside potential of 40% on current earnings, which have been rising at a nice clip. Buy the cheapest of the three.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 24, 2018

The best large-cap energy company in Canada. However, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Libya and other big oil producers are being constrained to sell oil. Canada, too. We need better politics to make our energy sector more attractive to investors. He fears a revolution in Venezuela in five years where they want to bring Exxon. Other countries, like Iraq, need oil revenues, too. That said, the world is reducing fossil fuel consumption. This is a tough business

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The best large-cap energy company in Canada. However, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Libya and other big oil producers are being constrained to sell oil. Canada, too. We need better politics to make our energy sector more attractive to investors. He fears a revolution in Venezuela in five years where they want to bring Exxon. Other countries, like Iraq, need oil revenues, too. That said, the world is reducing fossil fuel consumption. This is a tough business

BUY
BUY
July 23, 2018

It's a little above resistance now. It's entering seasonality starting late-July. Chart looks good.

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It's a little above resistance now. It's entering seasonality starting late-July. Chart looks good.

BUY
BUY
July 18, 2018

The energy sector has been improving over the past few months. Suncor and CNQ took advantage of the downturn with some smart acquisitions. CNQ is trading at the top of the sector and is a large holding in their portfolio.

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The energy sector has been improving over the past few months. Suncor and CNQ took advantage of the downturn with some smart acquisitions. CNQ is trading at the top of the sector and is a large holding in their portfolio.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 16, 2018

(Past Top Pick, June 7, 2017, Up 28%) Well-managed and -financed company. Good balance sheet and cash flow. He tends to do well and he has long believed in it. Good price today.

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(Past Top Pick, June 7, 2017, Up 28%) Well-managed and -financed company. Good balance sheet and cash flow. He tends to do well and he has long believed in it. Good price today.

BUY
BUY
July 12, 2018

He still likes it here. It rebounded from its lows. A lot of energy companies have very high decline rates. This one has a low decline rate. This company is truly a free cash flow machine. He likes how they are de-levering. He feels more comfortable with this one vs. SU-T. He prefers the cash flow profile given capital expenditures over the next few years.

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He still likes it here. It rebounded from its lows. A lot of energy companies have very high decline rates. This one has a low decline rate. This company is truly a free cash flow machine. He likes how they are de-levering. He feels more comfortable with this one vs. SU-T. He prefers the cash flow profile given capital expenditures over the next few years.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 12, 2018

Even if oil stays at 70 dollars this company is printing money because they have the big project built in the last years. He likes the execution and Management. Yield at 2.8% is not too bad. The pipeline issue is improving. (Analysts’ price target is $56.50)

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Even if oil stays at 70 dollars this company is printing money because they have the big project built in the last years. He likes the execution and Management. Yield at 2.8% is not too bad. The pipeline issue is improving. (Analysts’ price target is $56.50)

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 6, 2018

Crescent Point or CNQ or Parex? Portfolio strategy, especially in a taxable account, if you own Crescent Point, could consider taking a capital loss and going over to CNQ. The oil stocks have really lagged the commodity. Significantly undervalued. If you have big oils in your portfolio, they could underperform Crescent Point. Once Crescent Point starts to move, it will probably move fairly dramatically.

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Crescent Point or CNQ or Parex? Portfolio strategy, especially in a taxable account, if you own Crescent Point, could consider taking a capital loss and going over to CNQ. The oil stocks have really lagged the commodity. Significantly undervalued. If you have big oils in your portfolio, they could underperform Crescent Point. Once Crescent Point starts to move, it will probably move fairly dramatically.

BUY
BUY
June 29, 2018

This is their year. Has rebounded with oil prices, still room to go. Executing well, wall of cash flow coming, good yield.

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This is their year. Has rebounded with oil prices, still room to go. Executing well, wall of cash flow coming, good yield.

BUY
BUY
June 15, 2018

He has been involved from early stages. The key is the operation people that have done extraordinarily well as well as the timing of acquisitions. It does acquisitions on a contrarian basis. They built the business very effectively over the years and rates right there with SU-T in any portfolio.

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He has been involved from early stages. The key is the operation people that have done extraordinarily well as well as the timing of acquisitions. It does acquisitions on a contrarian basis. They built the business very effectively over the years and rates right there with SU-T in any portfolio.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 12, 2018

He does not own any oil companies. He is concerned about environmental groups and indigenous peoples who can slow down major energy projects. He believes that more pipelines will be built, but he is doubtful that they will be built in a time frame that is helpful to today's investor. He thinks it could be 3 to 4 years before the pipeline hits the coast.

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He does not own any oil companies. He is concerned about environmental groups and indigenous peoples who can slow down major energy projects. He believes that more pipelines will be built, but he is doubtful that they will be built in a time frame that is helpful to today's investor. He thinks it could be 3 to 4 years before the pipeline hits the coast.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 25, 2018

They're pulling back along with today's slide in oil prices. Well-managed. It's geographically diverse, and has 20-30% gas operations and fewer operations in the oil sands than, say, Suncor. Diversity gives you protection. He used to own CNQ. If CNQ went back to $40, he'd look at this again.

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They're pulling back along with today's slide in oil prices. Well-managed. It's geographically diverse, and has 20-30% gas operations and fewer operations in the oil sands than, say, Suncor. Diversity gives you protection. He used to own CNQ. If CNQ went back to $40, he'd look at this again.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 23, 2018

A top 10 position for him. CNQ has been a big investor in the oil sands. They've made smart acquitions. Also, oil prices have been rising. CNQ will generate a ton of cash going foward, so the dividend will rise. One of the few Canadian oil companies trading at multi-year highs. This can be a core position. He does worry about the take-away issue (lack of pipelines) and the politics around it, but CNQ is is a great long-term stock. (Analysts' price target: $54.96)

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A top 10 position for him. CNQ has been a big investor in the oil sands. They've made smart acquitions. Also, oil prices have been rising. CNQ will generate a ton of cash going foward, so the dividend will rise. One of the few Canadian oil companies trading at multi-year highs. This can be a core position. He does worry about the take-away issue (lack of pipelines) and the politics around it, but CNQ is is a great long-term stock. (Analysts' price target: $54.96)

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 18, 2018

Reporting earlier this month with YOY sales up 40%. Free cash flow grew 300% to $1.4 billion. RBC noted that on a $70 WTI, CNQ will generate $70 billion cash flow in 2019. They could buy back stock. Its cash flow will outpace the
sector's. Expect 25-45% upside with rising oil prices. (Analysts' price target $54.37)

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Reporting earlier this month with YOY sales up 40%. Free cash flow grew 300% to $1.4 billion. RBC noted that on a $70 WTI, CNQ will generate $70 billion cash flow in 2019. They could buy back stock. Its cash flow will outpace the
sector's. Expect 25-45% upside with rising oil prices. (Analysts' price target $54.37)

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 8, 2018

Sold off today when Shell sold its shares. The deal was done at a 3% discount, but the whole energy patch sold off today ahead of Trump's Iran announcement. She would consider this stock. Trump pulled out of the Iran deal--but the EU didn't. Oil has had a good rally, but in Canada with the lack of pipelines (like the TransMountain deadline), she won't add much oil to her portfolio until this situation is clarified.

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Sold off today when Shell sold its shares. The deal was done at a 3% discount, but the whole energy patch sold off today ahead of Trump's Iran announcement. She would consider this stock. Trump pulled out of the Iran deal--but the EU didn't. Oil has had a good rally, but in Canada with the lack of pipelines (like the TransMountain deadline), she won't add much oil to her portfolio until this situation is clarified.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
April 25, 2018

There has been a rally in the stock recently buy now increase in model value – currently at $45.88 (implying it is fair valued now). He would wait for a pull back.

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There has been a rally in the stock recently buy now increase in model value – currently at $45.88 (implying it is fair valued now). He would wait for a pull back.

BUY
BUY
April 23, 2018

Benefitting from rising oil prices. Sold in mid-2015 given oil concerns. Maybe he sold too early. Wonderful management. Will see a ton of free cash flow as oil prices rise. Dividend nearly 3%.

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Benefitting from rising oil prices. Sold in mid-2015 given oil concerns. Maybe he sold too early. Wonderful management. Will see a ton of free cash flow as oil prices rise. Dividend nearly 3%.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 13, 2018

(A Top Pick January 23/17 Up 17%) This is the elephant in the industry. It is a high-quality company. The heavy oil differential has still hurt them despite the improvement in oil prices. Still a core position. He thinks the differential discount will get fixed, especially once Line 3 is completed on Enbridge.

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(A Top Pick January 23/17 Up 17%) This is the elephant in the industry. It is a high-quality company. The heavy oil differential has still hurt them despite the improvement in oil prices. Still a core position. He thinks the differential discount will get fixed, especially once Line 3 is completed on Enbridge.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 3, 2018

Everybody loves this stock. They produce about 10% of Canada’s total production. This is one of the best performing names in the industry. Management will probably see $2 to $3 billion of free cash flow this year, which they can use to pay down debt and buy back shares or pay dividends. He sees this as a core holding in the large cap portion of a portfolio.

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Everybody loves this stock. They produce about 10% of Canada’s total production. This is one of the best performing names in the industry. Management will probably see $2 to $3 billion of free cash flow this year, which they can use to pay down debt and buy back shares or pay dividends. He sees this as a core holding in the large cap portion of a portfolio.

BUY
BUY
April 2, 2018

Everything in Canadian oil is a purchase. Just buy and hold your nose for two years. This is the large-cap oil player he stays away from, but is well-run. They are buying long-life assets from Americans, but paying depressed prices. This
will pay off in the long term.

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Everything in Canadian oil is a purchase. Just buy and hold your nose for two years. This is the large-cap oil player he stays away from, but is well-run. They are buying long-life assets from Americans, but paying depressed prices. This
will pay off in the long term.

PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
March 29, 2018

The dividend looks pretty safe. 63% all-in payout ratio. It has a really good balance sheet. They have 9% production growth and only trade in line with peers. Oil is risky but there are tail winds. He thinks it is time to nibble.

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The dividend looks pretty safe. 63% all-in payout ratio. It has a really good balance sheet. They have 9% production growth and only trade in line with peers. Oil is risky but there are tail winds. He thinks it is time to nibble.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 26, 2018

Most of their CAPEX is behind them, so they're enjoying cash flow, paying down debt and increasing their 3.6% yield. Not very expensive. Doing selective acqusitions. Will do even better when the gas price returns. (Analysts' price target $51.83)

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Most of their CAPEX is behind them, so they're enjoying cash flow, paying down debt and increasing their 3.6% yield. Not very expensive. Doing selective acqusitions. Will do even better when the gas price returns. (Analysts' price target $51.83)

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 21, 2018

CNQ-T versus SU-T. They both rank well in his model. In a rising interest rate world, energy stocks do well. CNQ ranks slightly higher as share earnings will grow 100% in 2018 with a 16 times P/E. He does not own either stock.

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CNQ-T versus SU-T. They both rank well in his model. In a rising interest rate world, energy stocks do well. CNQ ranks slightly higher as share earnings will grow 100% in 2018 with a 16 times P/E. He does not own either stock.

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