Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

TSE:CNQ

41.41
0.02 (0.05%)
Canadian Natural Resources Limited, or CNRL or Canadian Natural, is a Canadian oil and gas exploration, development and production company, with its corporate head office in Calgary, Alberta.
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Analysis and Opinions about CNQ-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 15, 2020
He is really light in the oil space. CNQ is a great company, but the problem is money is not flowing into resources. There is a large gap in the pricing of Canadian oil relative to the US and the world. He is not adding anything at this time.
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He is really light in the oil space. CNQ is a great company, but the problem is money is not flowing into resources. There is a large gap in the pricing of Canadian oil relative to the US and the world. He is not adding anything at this time.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 6, 2020
CNQ-T vs. SU-T. He thinks we are at the point where we have peak demand for carbon-based energy. By 2025 every car manufacturer will at least have a hybrid. There will always be at last a little demand for carbon-based energy. Right now we are generating more energy from solar than from coal, so we are moving in the right direction. He is indifferent to the two stocks.
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CNQ-T vs. SU-T. He thinks we are at the point where we have peak demand for carbon-based energy. By 2025 every car manufacturer will at least have a hybrid. There will always be at last a little demand for carbon-based energy. Right now we are generating more energy from solar than from coal, so we are moving in the right direction. He is indifferent to the two stocks.
BUY
BUY
January 6, 2020
Oil. They will raise their dividend this year and go up by double digits. He is positioned for this stock to do better in 2020. (Analysts’ price target is $45.00)
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Oil. They will raise their dividend this year and go up by double digits. He is positioned for this stock to do better in 2020. (Analysts’ price target is $45.00)
BUY
BUY
December 31, 2019
SU vs. CNQ He owns CNQ; with CU, they are the two best-run Canadian oil companies. They've maintained decent share prices as its peers got washed out. SU has benefitted from the diversity of their refining assets when the WTI price differential widened CNQ is a cash-flow machine, decreasing debt and costs. You can own SU or CNQ, not both. CNQ is in a better position of returning shareholder dollars through share buybacks and/or raising the dividend. Caveat: if oil prices rise in 2020, these two giants won't benefit as much as its smaller peers (e.g. WCP) which have fallen further.
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SU vs. CNQ He owns CNQ; with CU, they are the two best-run Canadian oil companies. They've maintained decent share prices as its peers got washed out. SU has benefitted from the diversity of their refining assets when the WTI price differential widened CNQ is a cash-flow machine, decreasing debt and costs. You can own SU or CNQ, not both. CNQ is in a better position of returning shareholder dollars through share buybacks and/or raising the dividend. Caveat: if oil prices rise in 2020, these two giants won't benefit as much as its smaller peers (e.g. WCP) which have fallen further.
HOLD
HOLD
December 16, 2019
He has always thought this one of the companies where you would hide as companies that would hold up in a downturn. They have done much better than mid-tiers. You can preserve money but not make much. It is a testament to the management of the company. It is best of breed.
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He has always thought this one of the companies where you would hide as companies that would hold up in a downturn. They have done much better than mid-tiers. You can preserve money but not make much. It is a testament to the management of the company. It is best of breed.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 13, 2019

In cyclical stocks, the commodity is so important. Saudi Aramco came out with its IPO this week in Riyad, not London or NYSE. In recent OPEC meetings they agreed to cut back output 500,000 more barrels per day. With current oil price tightening CNQ should be OK. Core holding for him.

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In cyclical stocks, the commodity is so important. Saudi Aramco came out with its IPO this week in Riyad, not London or NYSE. In recent OPEC meetings they agreed to cut back output 500,000 more barrels per day. With current oil price tightening CNQ should be OK. Core holding for him.

HOLD
HOLD
December 5, 2019

He owns this as well as SU-T. His model price is a 2.5% upside at $38.37 for CNQ-T. The fundamentals and price action are really squeezing it here. $31.50 would make him a buyer. Otherwise it has to show him by breaking through at $38.40.

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He owns this as well as SU-T. His model price is a 2.5% upside at $38.37 for CNQ-T. The fundamentals and price action are really squeezing it here. $31.50 would make him a buyer. Otherwise it has to show him by breaking through at $38.40.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 3, 2019

(A Top Pick Dec 10/18, Up 4%) His second-biggest energy holding after SU-T. Superb managers with great cost control. It's done well in a tough environment, beating the energy group which is down 10% in this period.

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(A Top Pick Dec 10/18, Up 4%) His second-biggest energy holding after SU-T. Superb managers with great cost control. It's done well in a tough environment, beating the energy group which is down 10% in this period.

BUY
BUY
November 21, 2019
CNQ-T and SU-T are where it is at. CNQ-T just keep growing and growing. They bought the Devon assets. Their debt is a bit high but they have a massive cash flow. The key thing is that they are buying back stock with their cash flow. They think their stock is cheap and they will be paying down debt. Tax loss selling may pull the stock down so it can be bought cheaper.
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CNQ-T and SU-T are where it is at. CNQ-T just keep growing and growing. They bought the Devon assets. Their debt is a bit high but they have a massive cash flow. The key thing is that they are buying back stock with their cash flow. They think their stock is cheap and they will be paying down debt. Tax loss selling may pull the stock down so it can be bought cheaper.
BUY
BUY
November 18, 2019
He has been buying it for clients at current levels. He thinks you might be able to get it cheaper. There will be volatility due to the commodity price. Free cash flow is massive. They are buying back stock and paying the dividend.
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He has been buying it for clients at current levels. He thinks you might be able to get it cheaper. There will be volatility due to the commodity price. Free cash flow is massive. They are buying back stock and paying the dividend.
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
November 12, 2019
Pays a 4.05% dividend. A terrific company. They're buying back stock steadily which will eventually increase the stock price. They're paying off a big acquisition quickly. A definite buy, but they face the headwind of a challenging time for Canadian oil. His top choice in Canadian energy.
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Pays a 4.05% dividend. A terrific company. They're buying back stock steadily which will eventually increase the stock price. They're paying off a big acquisition quickly. A definite buy, but they face the headwind of a challenging time for Canadian oil. His top choice in Canadian energy.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 6, 2019
SU vs PKI? The two go to stocks in the energy space are CNQ and SU. We are eventually going to have a big consolidation in the energy space, there are too many small players now. SU is a solid company, he would prefer it.
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SU vs PKI? The two go to stocks in the energy space are CNQ and SU. We are eventually going to have a big consolidation in the energy space, there are too many small players now. SU is a solid company, he would prefer it.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 4, 2019
Option trade with uncertainty in Canada? Do a covered call or write a put. If you sell a put, you must buy the stock at a certain price, so you can set a price point to enter the position. If a covered call, you're buying the stock, selling a call and capping your upside but reducing your cost base. The premiums on CNQ are in the top 25% of Canadian option premiums. Don't buy options on it now.
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Option trade with uncertainty in Canada? Do a covered call or write a put. If you sell a put, you must buy the stock at a certain price, so you can set a price point to enter the position. If a covered call, you're buying the stock, selling a call and capping your upside but reducing your cost base. The premiums on CNQ are in the top 25% of Canadian option premiums. Don't buy options on it now.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 22, 2019

Pays a 4.5% yield at a compelling valuation, yet offers free cash flow. CNQ could raise dividends and buyback shares. Among the better energy stocks. (Analysts’ price target is $44.10)

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Pays a 4.5% yield at a compelling valuation, yet offers free cash flow. CNQ could raise dividends and buyback shares. Among the better energy stocks. (Analysts’ price target is $44.10)

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 15, 2019

Sell or wait before Monday's election? Owning CNQ and SU He owns no oil stocks, but CNQ and SU are good. He sees no relief for oil stocks after the election, which could result in a coalition government. Doesn't see pipeline problems lifting.

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Sell or wait before Monday's election? Owning CNQ and SU He owns no oil stocks, but CNQ and SU are good. He sees no relief for oil stocks after the election, which could result in a coalition government. Doesn't see pipeline problems lifting.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 10, 2019
They bought a lot of oil sands assets. They bought back a lot of stock also. He thinks their stock is cheap. Their debt is high but still well regarded.
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They bought a lot of oil sands assets. They bought back a lot of stock also. He thinks their stock is cheap. Their debt is high but still well regarded.
BUY
BUY
September 30, 2019
It ranks quite well in his dividend model (top 15) but earnings estimates have been shaved in the last 90 days, yet free cash flow has grown. He is quite positive and this one should be able to participate on the commodity upside.
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It ranks quite well in his dividend model (top 15) but earnings estimates have been shaved in the last 90 days, yet free cash flow has grown. He is quite positive and this one should be able to participate on the commodity upside.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 19, 2019
(A Top Pick Sep 26/18, Down 13%) You would have thought this stock would have been up given results so you are getting it on sale. See his Top Picks
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(A Top Pick Sep 26/18, Down 13%) You would have thought this stock would have been up given results so you are getting it on sale. See his Top Picks
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 19, 2019

He prefers it over SU-T. They have all kinds of free cash flow. They increased the dividend almost 50% in the last three years. They bought all kinds of assets over the last few years at fire sale prices. If you own one Energy stock, this is the one. (Analysts’ price target is $45.32)

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He prefers it over SU-T. They have all kinds of free cash flow. They increased the dividend almost 50% in the last three years. They bought all kinds of assets over the last few years at fire sale prices. If you own one Energy stock, this is the one. (Analysts’ price target is $45.32)

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 16, 2019
It is always a buy close to book value. In the low $30s it makes sense. They are buying back their stock aggressively. This will be an astute investment if we get back to $70-$100 oil. The stock has upside. They are generating a lot of free cash flow.
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It is always a buy close to book value. In the low $30s it makes sense. They are buying back their stock aggressively. This will be an astute investment if we get back to $70-$100 oil. The stock has upside. They are generating a lot of free cash flow.
BUY
BUY
September 16, 2019
Pays nearly a 4% dividend. CNQ is one of the best-run oil companies, but he doesn't own oil.
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Pays nearly a 4% dividend. CNQ is one of the best-run oil companies, but he doesn't own oil.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 13, 2019
If oil prices live in this range and the differentials get fixed overtime, this company generates so much cash flow it holds no debt in 4 years time very conservatively, he thinks. Yield 4.45% (Analysts’ price target is $45.32)
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If oil prices live in this range and the differentials get fixed overtime, this company generates so much cash flow it holds no debt in 4 years time very conservatively, he thinks. Yield 4.45% (Analysts’ price target is $45.32)
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 12, 2019
Doesn't own any energy right now, but if she had to pick one, this is a good choice. Diversified, strong balance sheet, and has been increasing dividend all along. Dividend is safe. A good long-term, conservative play. Yield is over 4%.
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Doesn't own any energy right now, but if she had to pick one, this is a good choice. Diversified, strong balance sheet, and has been increasing dividend all along. Dividend is safe. A good long-term, conservative play. Yield is over 4%.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 9, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 22/18, Down 27%) Even the heavy weights have reflected the environment they are in. It is still solidly producing positive cash flow.
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(A Top Pick Aug 22/18, Down 27%) Even the heavy weights have reflected the environment they are in. It is still solidly producing positive cash flow.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 4, 2019
Canada's biggest oil producer. A contrarian pick given the brutal oil climate now. Pays 4.86% yield. It's trading at a discounted valuation now; the gap between the valuation and the oil in the ground is historically wide (too wide). Good growth. (Analysts’ price target is $45.66)
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Canada's biggest oil producer. A contrarian pick given the brutal oil climate now. Pays 4.86% yield. It's trading at a discounted valuation now; the gap between the valuation and the oil in the ground is historically wide (too wide). Good growth. (Analysts’ price target is $45.66)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 30, 2019
Very well-run, but he doesn't buy large-caps. Whenever CNQ says they have a lot of free cash flow, they buy a company. Instead, they need to aggressively buyback shares and raise their dividend.
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Very well-run, but he doesn't buy large-caps. Whenever CNQ says they have a lot of free cash flow, they buy a company. Instead, they need to aggressively buyback shares and raise their dividend.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 7, 2019
A contrarian pick. CNQ is Canada's biggest oil and natural gas producer. They have audited, proven reserve life of 27.7 years (current production rates until the lands are depleted to hydro-carbons). And yet, this trades at 10.2x earnings, which means the market ascribes zero value to the last 17 years of oil. This yields 4.7% which has grown 24% in the last 5 years. (Analysts’ price target is $46.17)
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A contrarian pick. CNQ is Canada's biggest oil and natural gas producer. They have audited, proven reserve life of 27.7 years (current production rates until the lands are depleted to hydro-carbons). And yet, this trades at 10.2x earnings, which means the market ascribes zero value to the last 17 years of oil. This yields 4.7% which has grown 24% in the last 5 years. (Analysts’ price target is $46.17)
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2019

CNQ vs SU? He thinks oil prices will be flat for the next period. There continues to be a flood of oil out the US and there is growth globally as well. In Canada, we are anti-trade outside of Canada. CNQ-T has been the best managed company in the space since 1990. SU-T is also a safe pick as well. Not a real reason to own them as he is not bullish on oil. (Analysts’ price target is $46.33)

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CNQ vs SU? He thinks oil prices will be flat for the next period. There continues to be a flood of oil out the US and there is growth globally as well. In Canada, we are anti-trade outside of Canada. CNQ-T has been the best managed company in the space since 1990. SU-T is also a safe pick as well. Not a real reason to own them as he is not bullish on oil. (Analysts’ price target is $46.33)

HOLD
HOLD
July 24, 2019

He likes both SU-T and CNQ-T and has made it a Top Pick in the past. Both these stocks continue to be good to hold. SU-T will continue to be a core holding for him as he likes both their upstream and downstream assets.

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He likes both SU-T and CNQ-T and has made it a Top Pick in the past. Both these stocks continue to be good to hold. SU-T will continue to be a core holding for him as he likes both their upstream and downstream assets.

HOLD
HOLD
July 24, 2019
One of the most widely held stocks in the energy space. Well managed and great assets. They have purchased many distressed assets at good value. It may not have the torque to the upside like others, but a solid core holding.
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One of the most widely held stocks in the energy space. Well managed and great assets. They have purchased many distressed assets at good value. It may not have the torque to the upside like others, but a solid core holding.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 19, 2019

or Suncor Neither. CNQ is a great company and doing good things on the ESG front and advocating for the oil industry. This and Suncor are the two biggest oil names in Canada. CNQ keeps promising free cash flow, but keeps deferring that flow. He'd rather buy Cenovus which is poised to receive large-cap investment inflows.

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or Suncor Neither. CNQ is a great company and doing good things on the ESG front and advocating for the oil industry. This and Suncor are the two biggest oil names in Canada. CNQ keeps promising free cash flow, but keeps deferring that flow. He'd rather buy Cenovus which is poised to receive large-cap investment inflows.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
June 20, 2019
It is one of the two main trophies. It has gone sideways since 2008. It goes up 50% and down 50%. This is a very volatile sector. You have to take advantage of the lulls when the stock is cheap.
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It is one of the two main trophies. It has gone sideways since 2008. It goes up 50% and down 50%. This is a very volatile sector. You have to take advantage of the lulls when the stock is cheap.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 20, 2019
Do you have a view of oil in general? Oil looks pretty oversold. He is not convinced to jump into oil in general. This company in particular needs oil to move higher to move up. (Analysts’ price target is $47.71)
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Do you have a view of oil in general? Oil looks pretty oversold. He is not convinced to jump into oil in general. This company in particular needs oil to move higher to move up. (Analysts’ price target is $47.71)
BUY
BUY
May 29, 2019
Latest acquisition? They are buying the Devon oilsands assets. Maybe it is time to come back into the Canadian oil patch. It trades about 4 times cash flow. At this price and a good yield, it is time to start nibbling here. (Analysts’ price target is $47.00)
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Latest acquisition? They are buying the Devon oilsands assets. Maybe it is time to come back into the Canadian oil patch. It trades about 4 times cash flow. At this price and a good yield, it is time to start nibbling here. (Analysts’ price target is $47.00)
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 24, 2019
CNQ vs SU Both have excellent management teams and are generating free cash flow. Both pay dividends. CNQ-T does not have refining assets. Both are the go to names for investors out of Canada. On a value basis, neither are great value right now. There are more exciting names to own.
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CNQ vs SU Both have excellent management teams and are generating free cash flow. Both pay dividends. CNQ-T does not have refining assets. Both are the go to names for investors out of Canada. On a value basis, neither are great value right now. There are more exciting names to own.
BUY
BUY
May 23, 2019
A great stock. It does not have up-stream and downstream protection. You can't predict the oil price. Hopefully we get positive news on Trans-Mountain. US investors want some policy changes in Canadian energy before investing here and those changes may happen. It has good risk/reward. There is no debt problem.
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A great stock. It does not have up-stream and downstream protection. You can't predict the oil price. Hopefully we get positive news on Trans-Mountain. US investors want some policy changes in Canadian energy before investing here and those changes may happen. It has good risk/reward. There is no debt problem.
BUY
BUY
May 21, 2019
Fabulous company. Grown dividend 17 years in a row. Natural decline rate is about 12%, extremely low. If you had to buy one Canadian oil and gas and hold it for 5 years, this is the one. Better, and more diversified, than Suncor. Management has tremendous track record. Good long-term hold.
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Fabulous company. Grown dividend 17 years in a row. Natural decline rate is about 12%, extremely low. If you had to buy one Canadian oil and gas and hold it for 5 years, this is the one. Better, and more diversified, than Suncor. Management has tremendous track record. Good long-term hold.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 17, 2019
(A Top Pick May 18/18, Down 21%) A increase in commodity prices has been offset by lack of market access. He does not own any energy stocks currently.
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(A Top Pick May 18/18, Down 21%) A increase in commodity prices has been offset by lack of market access. He does not own any energy stocks currently.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
May 17, 2019
There are no big projects going through and Notley's move to proffer WCS oil price was smart. This is one of the top Canadian oil companies. He's not in this space, but likes CNQ.
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There are no big projects going through and Notley's move to proffer WCS oil price was smart. This is one of the top Canadian oil companies. He's not in this space, but likes CNQ.
BUY
BUY
May 15, 2019
Crude oil is in a secular bear market, and it should top out around $80 in the next three years. He predicts a strong year in 2019, 2020 to be choppy (avoid oil), then it'll pop in 2021, because energy is a late-cycle play. He likes oil now for the next six months. He recommended CNQ this past week to clients. CNQ has had a good uptrend since the start of 2019. This could return to $46. Likes CNQ through December 2019, but be cautious in 2020.
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Crude oil is in a secular bear market, and it should top out around $80 in the next three years. He predicts a strong year in 2019, 2020 to be choppy (avoid oil), then it'll pop in 2021, because energy is a late-cycle play. He likes oil now for the next six months. He recommended CNQ this past week to clients. CNQ has had a good uptrend since the start of 2019. This could return to $46. Likes CNQ through December 2019, but be cautious in 2020.
HOLD
HOLD
May 10, 2019
Energy is tricky with a four year bear market. However, valuations are starting to get cheap enough. He does not own this. One of the largest producers. He just sees better opportunities in the space. (Analysts’ price target is $47.55)
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