Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

TSE:CNQ

22.92
0.51 (2.18%)
Canadian Natural Resources Limited, or CNRL or Canadian Natural, is a Canadian oil and gas exploration, development and production company, with its corporate head office in Calgary, Alberta.
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Analysis and Opinions about CNQ-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 3, 2020
He does not consider energy producers to be infrastructure plays as they are exposed to commodity price trends. He prefers to own the midstream businesses.
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He does not consider energy producers to be infrastructure plays as they are exposed to commodity price trends. He prefers to own the midstream businesses.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 3, 2020
We are past the 'best-before' date and core investments in energy are going to be less and less for institutions and individual investors. You want to wait and see what a second COVID wave will look like as we get into the flu season. The futures curve points back to $50 in 2027. There will be challenges in the sector. He does not feel it is investible.
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We are past the 'best-before' date and core investments in energy are going to be less and less for institutions and individual investors. You want to wait and see what a second COVID wave will look like as we get into the flu season. The futures curve points back to $50 in 2027. There will be challenges in the sector. He does not feel it is investible.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 19, 2020
It is tough to knock CNQ. The Saudis are rumoured to be divesting their holdings. They have lots of liquidity. He does not own it as it is so large within the energy index. He thinks he would do better owning names that are not already known.
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It is tough to knock CNQ. The Saudis are rumoured to be divesting their holdings. They have lots of liquidity. He does not own it as it is so large within the energy index. He thinks he would do better owning names that are not already known.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 26, 2020
Did the Saudis buy into Suncor and CNQ? He believes this is true, that a large Canadian pension fund sold these stocks to the Saudis. Can't comment on the stocks themselves; anything oil and gas been difficult. This industry can't catch a break. Oil prices can't trade at these prices for long, and a second wave will hurt these stocks more.
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Did the Saudis buy into Suncor and CNQ? He believes this is true, that a large Canadian pension fund sold these stocks to the Saudis. Can't comment on the stocks themselves; anything oil and gas been difficult. This industry can't catch a break. Oil prices can't trade at these prices for long, and a second wave will hurt these stocks more.
WATCH
WATCH
May 21, 2020
He owns no producers in Canada, nor the US. Near term contracts on oil have moved substantially. Longer term they have not moved. This is a mid-term trade. There will be a lot more volatility in the space. We have to get through a lot of inventory before fundamentals will change on oil.
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He owns no producers in Canada, nor the US. Near term contracts on oil have moved substantially. Longer term they have not moved. This is a mid-term trade. There will be a lot more volatility in the space. We have to get through a lot of inventory before fundamentals will change on oil.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
May 20, 2020
Balance sheet safe? Their debt increased to $19.9 billion by end-March and equity is $34 billion. He feels the balance sheet is safe, but it is very levered to oil prices. As he thinks WTI could drop below $20 again soon on rising global inventory, he would be cautious. They have not cut the dividend, but have not taken any impairments on reserves just yet. He thinks this may cause some concern about the dividend longevity. Don't chase it, wait for a lower price.
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Balance sheet safe? Their debt increased to $19.9 billion by end-March and equity is $34 billion. He feels the balance sheet is safe, but it is very levered to oil prices. As he thinks WTI could drop below $20 again soon on rising global inventory, he would be cautious. They have not cut the dividend, but have not taken any impairments on reserves just yet. He thinks this may cause some concern about the dividend longevity. Don't chase it, wait for a lower price.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 15, 2020
Phase I was the valley of death, when oil prices went to single digits. Now in Phase II, oil prices have recovered and the market is now waiting to see what happens to oil demand and how quickly it recovers. He holds 12 names, 8 of them oil producers. He would rather own a smaller cap producer. CNQ has tough competition on its cash flow to keep paying the dividend (he was surprised they didn't cut the dividend). He thinks when a buyer enters on a small cap stock, it can turn higher more aggressively.
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Phase I was the valley of death, when oil prices went to single digits. Now in Phase II, oil prices have recovered and the market is now waiting to see what happens to oil demand and how quickly it recovers. He holds 12 names, 8 of them oil producers. He would rather own a smaller cap producer. CNQ has tough competition on its cash flow to keep paying the dividend (he was surprised they didn't cut the dividend). He thinks when a buyer enters on a small cap stock, it can turn higher more aggressively.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 14, 2020
A great company, one of Canada's best oil companies with a super balance sheet. But CNQ couldn't do anything during the recent oil war. What could they do? They can't control the price of oil. This will be a consolidator over time. Smaller energy companies won't make it through. Oil is a tough sector with a murky future. Will oil return to $50 or $60? Oil companies have to wait for the oil price to rise.
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A great company, one of Canada's best oil companies with a super balance sheet. But CNQ couldn't do anything during the recent oil war. What could they do? They can't control the price of oil. This will be a consolidator over time. Smaller energy companies won't make it through. Oil is a tough sector with a murky future. Will oil return to $50 or $60? Oil companies have to wait for the oil price to rise.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 3, 2020

The composition of this ETF has become highly concentrated. Five names account for 78% of its value. CNQ and SU account for most it. Both of those names have rallied well compared to their peers as buyers in the US have been stepping in. However, their hedge books are naked to oil prices right now. He would prefer to own small cap names with good hedge books, if you select the right ones he thinks.

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The composition of this ETF has become highly concentrated. Five names account for 78% of its value. CNQ and SU account for most it. Both of those names have rallied well compared to their peers as buyers in the US have been stepping in. However, their hedge books are naked to oil prices right now. He would prefer to own small cap names with good hedge books, if you select the right ones he thinks.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 24, 2020
All oil has been decimated. Shocking. But these stocks can bounce nicely on optimistic day. They have free cash flow to service their debt. Don't chase it today, but nibble under $12 and hold it for long term. They have a great suite of assets and they will pay down their debt. Down the road, expect buybacks and acquisitions.
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All oil has been decimated. Shocking. But these stocks can bounce nicely on optimistic day. They have free cash flow to service their debt. Don't chase it today, but nibble under $12 and hold it for long term. They have a great suite of assets and they will pay down their debt. Down the road, expect buybacks and acquisitions.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 16, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 18/19, Down 54%) Everything went well until the Saudi/Russia conflict. He is not buying oils at this point.
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(A Top Pick Mar 18/19, Down 54%) Everything went well until the Saudi/Russia conflict. He is not buying oils at this point.
BUY
BUY
March 12, 2020

He owns CNQ instead of Suncor. These two are the ones you want to own with the volatility in the oil market. They both have the ability to manage through this and have a chance to buy a bunch of assets. The smaller caps are just fighting to live another day. Risk that oil can go lower.

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He owns CNQ instead of Suncor. These two are the ones you want to own with the volatility in the oil market. They both have the ability to manage through this and have a chance to buy a bunch of assets. The smaller caps are just fighting to live another day. Risk that oil can go lower.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 11, 2020

Energy stocks? Right now stick to the large, liquid energy stocks. There is growing concern of counter-party credit exposure within the mid-stream and pipeline space. He recommends ENB-T and TRP-T for pipelines and SU-T and CNQ-T for producers, if you want to own any energy stocks. SU-T yield is 7.2%, while CNQ-T is 8.4%. CNQ-T is probably still showing positive cash flow, even at these oil price levels. You may still lose money, but it will be much less than a smaller player.

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Energy stocks? Right now stick to the large, liquid energy stocks. There is growing concern of counter-party credit exposure within the mid-stream and pipeline space. He recommends ENB-T and TRP-T for pipelines and SU-T and CNQ-T for producers, if you want to own any energy stocks. SU-T yield is 7.2%, while CNQ-T is 8.4%. CNQ-T is probably still showing positive cash flow, even at these oil price levels. You may still lose money, but it will be much less than a smaller player.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 11, 2020
Valuation is getting more expensive, payout ratio is going higher, balance sheet is getting worse. Only buy if you think oil is going higher, and then you'll be fine.
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Valuation is getting more expensive, payout ratio is going higher, balance sheet is getting worse. Only buy if you think oil is going higher, and then you'll be fine.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 6, 2020

Suncor is a good buy, but so is CNQ, he thinks. Both have yields of 5.6% today.

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Suncor is a good buy, but so is CNQ, he thinks. Both have yields of 5.6% today.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 4, 2020
(A Top Pick Feb 27/19, Down 7%) A week and a half ago this was up in value. He thinks the sell off will be short lived. This is still a Top Pick for him.
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(A Top Pick Feb 27/19, Down 7%) A week and a half ago this was up in value. He thinks the sell off will be short lived. This is still a Top Pick for him.
HOLD
HOLD
March 4, 2020

Suncor will be a survivor of this energy down turn, but only wants to own one oil sands producer. He prefers CNQ. Suncor has benefited from their refinery assets, but that value uplift is pretty much played out.

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Suncor will be a survivor of this energy down turn, but only wants to own one oil sands producer. He prefers CNQ. Suncor has benefited from their refinery assets, but that value uplift is pretty much played out.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 4, 2020
Any time the share price drops to the low $30s this is a good buy. He expects it to rebound back above the mid-$40s when oil prices recover. Their capex has peaked and now they can reap the benefits in higher cash flows. When capital returns to Canada, this will be one of the first ones to attract new investor interest. Yield 4.47% (Analysts’ price target is $47.00)
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Any time the share price drops to the low $30s this is a good buy. He expects it to rebound back above the mid-$40s when oil prices recover. Their capex has peaked and now they can reap the benefits in higher cash flows. When capital returns to Canada, this will be one of the first ones to attract new investor interest. Yield 4.47% (Analysts’ price target is $47.00)
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
February 21, 2020

It's a good hold for the longterm. It could be a good time to start looking into this. He would watch it closely. He thinks there will be production moving back to NA due to the coronavirus. He's looking for an entry point.

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It's a good hold for the longterm. It could be a good time to start looking into this. He would watch it closely. He thinks there will be production moving back to NA due to the coronavirus. He's looking for an entry point.

BUY
BUY
February 6, 2020
A run from Dec did very well and then abruptly turned back down. Maybe we get a rebound with the price of oil being higher. There is the 4% yield. It has recovered and his upside target of $45 remains. If oil does really well he would expect $63.
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A run from Dec did very well and then abruptly turned back down. Maybe we get a rebound with the price of oil being higher. There is the 4% yield. It has recovered and his upside target of $45 remains. If oil does really well he would expect $63.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 3, 2020
It has a big bottom at $30 over recent years, and we're seeing a longer-term uptrend. We're seeing weakness and it's now re-testing support. There'll be an accumulation phase before it pushes higher. He just bought this. It's one of the best oil stocks. (Analysts’ price target is $47.11)
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It has a big bottom at $30 over recent years, and we're seeing a longer-term uptrend. We're seeing weakness and it's now re-testing support. There'll be an accumulation phase before it pushes higher. He just bought this. It's one of the best oil stocks. (Analysts’ price target is $47.11)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 15, 2020
He is really light in the oil space. CNQ is a great company, but the problem is money is not flowing into resources. There is a large gap in the pricing of Canadian oil relative to the US and the world. He is not adding anything at this time.
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He is really light in the oil space. CNQ is a great company, but the problem is money is not flowing into resources. There is a large gap in the pricing of Canadian oil relative to the US and the world. He is not adding anything at this time.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 6, 2020
CNQ-T vs. SU-T. He thinks we are at the point where we have peak demand for carbon-based energy. By 2025 every car manufacturer will at least have a hybrid. There will always be at last a little demand for carbon-based energy. Right now we are generating more energy from solar than from coal, so we are moving in the right direction. He is indifferent to the two stocks.
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CNQ-T vs. SU-T. He thinks we are at the point where we have peak demand for carbon-based energy. By 2025 every car manufacturer will at least have a hybrid. There will always be at last a little demand for carbon-based energy. Right now we are generating more energy from solar than from coal, so we are moving in the right direction. He is indifferent to the two stocks.
BUY
BUY
January 6, 2020
Oil. They will raise their dividend this year and go up by double digits. He is positioned for this stock to do better in 2020. (Analysts’ price target is $45.00)
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Oil. They will raise their dividend this year and go up by double digits. He is positioned for this stock to do better in 2020. (Analysts’ price target is $45.00)
BUY
BUY
December 31, 2019
SU vs. CNQ He owns CNQ; with CU, they are the two best-run Canadian oil companies. They've maintained decent share prices as its peers got washed out. SU has benefitted from the diversity of their refining assets when the WTI price differential widened CNQ is a cash-flow machine, decreasing debt and costs. You can own SU or CNQ, not both. CNQ is in a better position of returning shareholder dollars through share buybacks and/or raising the dividend. Caveat: if oil prices rise in 2020, these two giants won't benefit as much as its smaller peers (e.g. WCP) which have fallen further.
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SU vs. CNQ He owns CNQ; with CU, they are the two best-run Canadian oil companies. They've maintained decent share prices as its peers got washed out. SU has benefitted from the diversity of their refining assets when the WTI price differential widened CNQ is a cash-flow machine, decreasing debt and costs. You can own SU or CNQ, not both. CNQ is in a better position of returning shareholder dollars through share buybacks and/or raising the dividend. Caveat: if oil prices rise in 2020, these two giants won't benefit as much as its smaller peers (e.g. WCP) which have fallen further.
HOLD
HOLD
December 16, 2019
He has always thought this one of the companies where you would hide as companies that would hold up in a downturn. They have done much better than mid-tiers. You can preserve money but not make much. It is a testament to the management of the company. It is best of breed.
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He has always thought this one of the companies where you would hide as companies that would hold up in a downturn. They have done much better than mid-tiers. You can preserve money but not make much. It is a testament to the management of the company. It is best of breed.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 13, 2019

In cyclical stocks, the commodity is so important. Saudi Aramco came out with its IPO this week in Riyad, not London or NYSE. In recent OPEC meetings they agreed to cut back output 500,000 more barrels per day. With current oil price tightening CNQ should be OK. Core holding for him.

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In cyclical stocks, the commodity is so important. Saudi Aramco came out with its IPO this week in Riyad, not London or NYSE. In recent OPEC meetings they agreed to cut back output 500,000 more barrels per day. With current oil price tightening CNQ should be OK. Core holding for him.

HOLD
HOLD
December 5, 2019

He owns this as well as SU-T. His model price is a 2.5% upside at $38.37 for CNQ-T. The fundamentals and price action are really squeezing it here. $31.50 would make him a buyer. Otherwise it has to show him by breaking through at $38.40.

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He owns this as well as SU-T. His model price is a 2.5% upside at $38.37 for CNQ-T. The fundamentals and price action are really squeezing it here. $31.50 would make him a buyer. Otherwise it has to show him by breaking through at $38.40.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 3, 2019

(A Top Pick Dec 10/18, Up 4%) His second-biggest energy holding after SU-T. Superb managers with great cost control. It's done well in a tough environment, beating the energy group which is down 10% in this period.

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(A Top Pick Dec 10/18, Up 4%) His second-biggest energy holding after SU-T. Superb managers with great cost control. It's done well in a tough environment, beating the energy group which is down 10% in this period.

BUY
BUY
November 21, 2019
CNQ-T and SU-T are where it is at. CNQ-T just keep growing and growing. They bought the Devon assets. Their debt is a bit high but they have a massive cash flow. The key thing is that they are buying back stock with their cash flow. They think their stock is cheap and they will be paying down debt. Tax loss selling may pull the stock down so it can be bought cheaper.
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CNQ-T and SU-T are where it is at. CNQ-T just keep growing and growing. They bought the Devon assets. Their debt is a bit high but they have a massive cash flow. The key thing is that they are buying back stock with their cash flow. They think their stock is cheap and they will be paying down debt. Tax loss selling may pull the stock down so it can be bought cheaper.
BUY
BUY
November 18, 2019
He has been buying it for clients at current levels. He thinks you might be able to get it cheaper. There will be volatility due to the commodity price. Free cash flow is massive. They are buying back stock and paying the dividend.
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He has been buying it for clients at current levels. He thinks you might be able to get it cheaper. There will be volatility due to the commodity price. Free cash flow is massive. They are buying back stock and paying the dividend.
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
November 12, 2019
Pays a 4.05% dividend. A terrific company. They're buying back stock steadily which will eventually increase the stock price. They're paying off a big acquisition quickly. A definite buy, but they face the headwind of a challenging time for Canadian oil. His top choice in Canadian energy.
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Pays a 4.05% dividend. A terrific company. They're buying back stock steadily which will eventually increase the stock price. They're paying off a big acquisition quickly. A definite buy, but they face the headwind of a challenging time for Canadian oil. His top choice in Canadian energy.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 6, 2019
SU vs PKI? The two go to stocks in the energy space are CNQ and SU. We are eventually going to have a big consolidation in the energy space, there are too many small players now. SU is a solid company, he would prefer it.
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SU vs PKI? The two go to stocks in the energy space are CNQ and SU. We are eventually going to have a big consolidation in the energy space, there are too many small players now. SU is a solid company, he would prefer it.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 4, 2019
Option trade with uncertainty in Canada? Do a covered call or write a put. If you sell a put, you must buy the stock at a certain price, so you can set a price point to enter the position. If a covered call, you're buying the stock, selling a call and capping your upside but reducing your cost base. The premiums on CNQ are in the top 25% of Canadian option premiums. Don't buy options on it now.
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Option trade with uncertainty in Canada? Do a covered call or write a put. If you sell a put, you must buy the stock at a certain price, so you can set a price point to enter the position. If a covered call, you're buying the stock, selling a call and capping your upside but reducing your cost base. The premiums on CNQ are in the top 25% of Canadian option premiums. Don't buy options on it now.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 22, 2019

Pays a 4.5% yield at a compelling valuation, yet offers free cash flow. CNQ could raise dividends and buyback shares. Among the better energy stocks. (Analysts’ price target is $44.10)

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Pays a 4.5% yield at a compelling valuation, yet offers free cash flow. CNQ could raise dividends and buyback shares. Among the better energy stocks. (Analysts’ price target is $44.10)

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 15, 2019

Sell or wait before Monday's election? Owning CNQ and SU He owns no oil stocks, but CNQ and SU are good. He sees no relief for oil stocks after the election, which could result in a coalition government. Doesn't see pipeline problems lifting.

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Sell or wait before Monday's election? Owning CNQ and SU He owns no oil stocks, but CNQ and SU are good. He sees no relief for oil stocks after the election, which could result in a coalition government. Doesn't see pipeline problems lifting.