Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

CM-T

TSE:CM

95.94
1.19 (1.26%)
The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, commonly referred to as CIBC, is one of the Big Five banks in Canada. The bank is headquartered at Commerce Court in Toronto, Ontario. CIBC's Institution Number is 010, and its SWIFT code is CIBCCATT.
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Analysis and Opinions about CM-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
HOLD
HOLD
August 4, 2020
In Canada, the big banks are good value creators over time. However, he prefers geographic and business diversification, and CM is underdeveloped in the U.S. despite a recent purchase down there. Their asset management is a fee-based business so it isn't effected by low interest rates or loan loss provisions. Their large exposure to lending and deposit activities is a disadvantage. Historically, the big banks yield double-digit returns, including dividend, and CM grows its dividend at 7-8% yearly--but not every year, not this year. If you own, then hold. If not, look at another Canadian bank.
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In Canada, the big banks are good value creators over time. However, he prefers geographic and business diversification, and CM is underdeveloped in the U.S. despite a recent purchase down there. Their asset management is a fee-based business so it isn't effected by low interest rates or loan loss provisions. Their large exposure to lending and deposit activities is a disadvantage. Historically, the big banks yield double-digit returns, including dividend, and CM grows its dividend at 7-8% yearly--but not every year, not this year. If you own, then hold. If not, look at another Canadian bank.
BUY
BUY
July 8, 2020

Canadian bank for dividends? For a 10-15 year time horizon, the Canadian banks are a pocket of value. They are trading less than 10 times forward earnings, which already include loan loss provisions. They have high asset qualities. Buying here is a winning formula for the long term. The dividend will pay you to wait for the market to return to normal post-pandemic. TD, RY and BNS happen to be the ones he favors for his clients. They have exposure to international markets. BNS has the best valuation and the dividend yield is better than its peers.

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Canadian bank for dividends? For a 10-15 year time horizon, the Canadian banks are a pocket of value. They are trading less than 10 times forward earnings, which already include loan loss provisions. They have high asset qualities. Buying here is a winning formula for the long term. The dividend will pay you to wait for the market to return to normal post-pandemic. TD, RY and BNS happen to be the ones he favors for his clients. They have exposure to international markets. BNS has the best valuation and the dividend yield is better than its peers.

BUY
BUY
June 29, 2020
He still likes it. It is at somewhat of a discount. It is more Canadian-centric compared to competitors. Over the next few quarters he thinks provisions for loan losses will rise. They are at a reasonable price.
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He still likes it. It is at somewhat of a discount. It is more Canadian-centric compared to competitors. Over the next few quarters he thinks provisions for loan losses will rise. They are at a reasonable price.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 5, 2020
(A Top Pick Jul 15/19, Down 1%) The best performing Canadian bank of the past 12 months. It continues to go through a transition. On a long term basis, CM still has good things going for it compared to its peers, giving them an opportunity to increase market share.
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(A Top Pick Jul 15/19, Down 1%) The best performing Canadian bank of the past 12 months. It continues to go through a transition. On a long term basis, CM still has good things going for it compared to its peers, giving them an opportunity to increase market share.
BUY
BUY
June 3, 2020
There is a nice recovery in the Canadian banking sector. This shows they have likely over reserved for credit losses. There are a lot of moving parts and he is surprised about how agreeable the banks are to deferrals of mortgages. Higher oil prices is helping as well. Now is a decent time to pick a bank for your portfolio.
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There is a nice recovery in the Canadian banking sector. This shows they have likely over reserved for credit losses. There are a lot of moving parts and he is surprised about how agreeable the banks are to deferrals of mortgages. Higher oil prices is helping as well. Now is a decent time to pick a bank for your portfolio.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 1, 2020
Preferred shares? He holds preferreds for their clients. These are senior to common stock and are more risky than bonds. The preferred market is unique to Canada and lacks liquidity at times. The yields are very attractive at 6% or higher. Just be careful of the difference between the "rate reset" offerings that renew their dividends based on the Bank of Canada interest rates. He would suggest owing the perpetual shares instead that have a constant dividend.
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Preferred shares? He holds preferreds for their clients. These are senior to common stock and are more risky than bonds. The preferred market is unique to Canada and lacks liquidity at times. The yields are very attractive at 6% or higher. Just be careful of the difference between the "rate reset" offerings that renew their dividends based on the Bank of Canada interest rates. He would suggest owing the perpetual shares instead that have a constant dividend.
BUY
BUY
March 23, 2020
Nothing has happened to CIBC in recent weeks to make it worth 35% less. If you liked it at $110 a share you should love it at the current price. No Canadian bank has ever cut a dividend in 77 years.
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Nothing has happened to CIBC in recent weeks to make it worth 35% less. If you liked it at $110 a share you should love it at the current price. No Canadian bank has ever cut a dividend in 77 years.
BUY
BUY
March 17, 2020

It's a good time to buy the big 6 banks. Yields are very high, with CM yielding 7.5%. It's a good time for a young investor to initiate positions. No bank will have its earnings totally obliterated during this crisis. Prices have rolled back. You can now buy a bank at book value or 1.5x book, which is a rare opportunity. Yes, ROE will be compressed if loan losses rise, but requirements have recently been loosened, which takes some pressure off. TD and BMO are more exposed to the U.S. where there are some commercial credit problems, so he's cooler on those, and hotter on the other big 6, including CIBC.

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It's a good time to buy the big 6 banks. Yields are very high, with CM yielding 7.5%. It's a good time for a young investor to initiate positions. No bank will have its earnings totally obliterated during this crisis. Prices have rolled back. You can now buy a bank at book value or 1.5x book, which is a rare opportunity. Yes, ROE will be compressed if loan losses rise, but requirements have recently been loosened, which takes some pressure off. TD and BMO are more exposed to the U.S. where there are some commercial credit problems, so he's cooler on those, and hotter on the other big 6, including CIBC.

BUY
BUY
March 12, 2020

He owns TD and Royal. People are worried that with the price of oil so low, we'll go into recession, rates will go down, and the Canadian consumer is more highly leveraged than the US consumer. Banks are trading at reasonable multiples with good balance sheets. Risk profile is not what the US was in 2008. Makes a lot of sense to own any of them now for the long term.

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He owns TD and Royal. People are worried that with the price of oil so low, we'll go into recession, rates will go down, and the Canadian consumer is more highly leveraged than the US consumer. Banks are trading at reasonable multiples with good balance sheets. Risk profile is not what the US was in 2008. Makes a lot of sense to own any of them now for the long term.

WAIT
WAIT
February 24, 2020
$99-126 is its range for trading. Wait for earnings on Feb. 26, which he expects to be decent, so it would be a good buying opportunity on Thursday/Friday. CM is right at its 200-day moving average. A buying opportunity if this falls to the lower end of its range.
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$99-126 is its range for trading. Wait for earnings on Feb. 26, which he expects to be decent, so it would be a good buying opportunity on Thursday/Friday. CM is right at its 200-day moving average. A buying opportunity if this falls to the lower end of its range.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
February 20, 2020
The banks had a lack luster performance in the last quarters and analysts really cut their ratings on the banks, so it may be an opportunity to get back into them. He is looking at a breakout from the October peak. They are starting to bounce back again.
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The banks had a lack luster performance in the last quarters and analysts really cut their ratings on the banks, so it may be an opportunity to get back into them. He is looking at a breakout from the October peak. They are starting to bounce back again.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 6, 2020
(A Top Pick Feb 11/19, Up 4%) It is fairly representative of what happened to bank stocks in the last year. It went sideways but lost attitude. It remains good value. He wishes the cheap stocks would get going.
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(A Top Pick Feb 11/19, Up 4%) It is fairly representative of what happened to bank stocks in the last year. It went sideways but lost attitude. It remains good value. He wishes the cheap stocks would get going.
HOLD
HOLD
January 16, 2020
Banks on the whole are going sideways. It's OK. Pretty good dividend. Stuck in a range, $100 on the low side and $120 on the high end. Good for the dividend, but not for growth. Yield is 5.3%.
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Banks on the whole are going sideways. It's OK. Pretty good dividend. Stuck in a range, $100 on the low side and $120 on the high end. Good for the dividend, but not for growth. Yield is 5.3%.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 9, 2020
Weak link among the Canadian banks.
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Weak link among the Canadian banks.
BUY
BUY
January 8, 2020
One of his principal bank holdings. Loan provision increases have been occurring and he thinks management is just being cautious. It is well capitalized and trades at a discount to its peers. He would recommend buying here.
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One of his principal bank holdings. Loan provision increases have been occurring and he thinks management is just being cautious. It is well capitalized and trades at a discount to its peers. He would recommend buying here.
HOLD
HOLD
January 7, 2020
Everything looks okay, but it looks kind of mushy. All banks look like this, except National Bank which is Quebec based. The banks are cheap, but they look like they want to ooze lower before there is any rebound. He would hold it if you own it, but he doesn't expect good performance in the next couple months.
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Everything looks okay, but it looks kind of mushy. All banks look like this, except National Bank which is Quebec based. The banks are cheap, but they look like they want to ooze lower before there is any rebound. He would hold it if you own it, but he doesn't expect good performance in the next couple months.
BUY
BUY
January 6, 2020

He switched from BMO-T to CM-T last year. It is still not his largest banking holding. It is a bit of a catch-up trade.

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He switched from BMO-T to CM-T last year. It is still not his largest banking holding. It is a bit of a catch-up trade.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 3, 2020
They stubbed their toe on Q4 earnings and arrived late to buying assets in the US. In Canada, they have been very aggressive on mortgage lending. He does not own it presently. He is not a fan of the overall leverage to the Canadian economy.
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They stubbed their toe on Q4 earnings and arrived late to buying assets in the US. In Canada, they have been very aggressive on mortgage lending. He does not own it presently. He is not a fan of the overall leverage to the Canadian economy.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 31, 2019
CM vs. MFC They were late to get US exposure, which hurt them. Also, there's negativity towards CM's mortgage book. TD and RY remain the top Canadian banks, not CM. TD & RY are investing in tech, the future, which is smart. MFC: The lifecos have done well diversifying into asset management and into Asia. But with low interest rates, pricing insurance gets tougher and limits growth. You own lifecos for Asia and wealth management. Not CM, but buy TD and Royal.
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CM vs. MFC They were late to get US exposure, which hurt them. Also, there's negativity towards CM's mortgage book. TD and RY remain the top Canadian banks, not CM. TD & RY are investing in tech, the future, which is smart. MFC: The lifecos have done well diversifying into asset management and into Asia. But with low interest rates, pricing insurance gets tougher and limits growth. You own lifecos for Asia and wealth management. Not CM, but buy TD and Royal.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 16, 2019
They stood out from their peers as the one to increase their expenses. This is difficult because of the headwinds in the sector. It has the weakest earnings profile going forward. He would prefer another bank. See his Top Picks for today.
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They stood out from their peers as the one to increase their expenses. This is difficult because of the headwinds in the sector. It has the weakest earnings profile going forward. He would prefer another bank. See his Top Picks for today.
HOLD
HOLD
December 11, 2019
If the market is going into an inflationary period, this dividend and 8.9 times earnings, you could but it here. Their underlying credit quality remains stable. The resumption of Canadian real estate looks good. Earnings are not growing as fast as other Canadian banks. Yield 5.5% (Analysts’ price target is $113.00)
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If the market is going into an inflationary period, this dividend and 8.9 times earnings, you could but it here. Their underlying credit quality remains stable. The resumption of Canadian real estate looks good. Earnings are not growing as fast as other Canadian banks. Yield 5.5% (Analysts’ price target is $113.00)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 6, 2019
The banks across the board have’s done well this week. Banks do well between August to September and usually outperform the market. From a technical perspective, we inched into resistance and we’re seeing testing. He wouldn’t be a buyer here unless it come down to the August low.
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The banks across the board have’s done well this week. Banks do well between August to September and usually outperform the market. From a technical perspective, we inched into resistance and we’re seeing testing. He wouldn’t be a buyer here unless it come down to the August low.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
December 5, 2019
$111.65 is his structural level. It will stay where it is until there is some news. He would add here as his model price is $135.44 or an 18% upside. He would nibble here.
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$111.65 is his structural level. It will stay where it is until there is some news. He would add here as his model price is $135.44 or an 18% upside. He would nibble here.
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
December 4, 2019

Lots of upside to come and pays a nice yield. CM is in the lower end of its 10-year range. Really likes this, even more than TD.

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Lots of upside to come and pays a nice yield. CM is in the lower end of its 10-year range. Really likes this, even more than TD.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 3, 2019
(A Top Pick Dec 10/18, Up 13%) Pays the best dividend among Canadian banks. Still likes it. Trades in line with its peers in terms of valuation. ROE is fairly good. They report next week. Credit has held in well in this space, and all the banks have contained operating costs. The sector is up 14%.
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(A Top Pick Dec 10/18, Up 13%) Pays the best dividend among Canadian banks. Still likes it. Trades in line with its peers in terms of valuation. ROE is fairly good. They report next week. Credit has held in well in this space, and all the banks have contained operating costs. The sector is up 14%.
HOLD
HOLD
November 14, 2019
Financials look pretty good. They keep moving on into December. You have support way back in May and we should see it hold at $110. It should carry on into January and February of next year. It should go back up to $120 and then pause there.
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Financials look pretty good. They keep moving on into December. You have support way back in May and we should see it hold at $110. It should carry on into January and February of next year. It should go back up to $120 and then pause there.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 6, 2019
Will they continue to outperform their peers? Every cycle sees the laggard become the leader and then vice versa. The Canadian banks are all about the same in long term returns. CM is the smaller of the Big 5 banks. RY has been consistently the largest bank, however. CM-T does have the highest current dividend yield.
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Will they continue to outperform their peers? Every cycle sees the laggard become the leader and then vice versa. The Canadian banks are all about the same in long term returns. CM is the smaller of the Big 5 banks. RY has been consistently the largest bank, however. CM-T does have the highest current dividend yield.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 28, 2019
Traditionally it has been regarded as more focused on the domestic economy. The reliance on the domestic Canadian mortgage market for growth is not well regarded. It might be okay shorter term but not longer term.
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Traditionally it has been regarded as more focused on the domestic economy. The reliance on the domestic Canadian mortgage market for growth is not well regarded. It might be okay shorter term but not longer term.
BUY
BUY
October 22, 2019
A recent top pick. Fine valuation vs. peers. Neither the cheapest or most expensive bank, and pays nearly a 5% yield (safe), higher than peers. Their mortgage exposure is greater than peers, though.
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A recent top pick. Fine valuation vs. peers. Neither the cheapest or most expensive bank, and pays nearly a 5% yield (safe), higher than peers. Their mortgage exposure is greater than peers, though.
HOLD
HOLD
October 18, 2019
He saw a floor near $100 back in August and resistance at $110. If we go above $112, then $120 is very likely. A no man's land right now, so just hold with downside to about $105.
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He saw a floor near $100 back in August and resistance at $110. If we go above $112, then $120 is very likely. A no man's land right now, so just hold with downside to about $105.
HOLD
HOLD
October 7, 2019
He is luke warm on Canadian banks. He owns BNS-T and CWB-T. It has not been the best run bank historically. The dividend is safe unless something horrific happens. It will probably continue to grow its dividend.
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He is luke warm on Canadian banks. He owns BNS-T and CWB-T. It has not been the best run bank historically. The dividend is safe unless something horrific happens. It will probably continue to grow its dividend.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 20, 2019

Canadian banks have gotten very cheap now. CIBC has a US presence but it’s mainly in Canada. RBC has more resources with a global presence. He thinks that banks are still a good place to be. Would be buying Royal Bank and TD.

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Canadian banks have gotten very cheap now. CIBC has a US presence but it’s mainly in Canada. RBC has more resources with a global presence. He thinks that banks are still a good place to be. Would be buying Royal Bank and TD.

BUY
BUY
September 12, 2019
The breakout above $105 is very encouraging and he picked it up. We just punched through the 200 day moving average. This stock is outperforming the S&P.
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The breakout above $105 is very encouraging and he picked it up. We just punched through the 200 day moving average. This stock is outperforming the S&P.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 9, 2019
They surprised everybody in the last quarter with earnings. You get over 5.5% yield. The valuation of this banks is out of kilter with the other banks. People are concerned that they are too Canada-centric. At this price it is his Top Pick. It is a screaming buy at $100. (Analysts’ price target is $110.94)
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They surprised everybody in the last quarter with earnings. You get over 5.5% yield. The valuation of this banks is out of kilter with the other banks. People are concerned that they are too Canada-centric. At this price it is his Top Pick. It is a screaming buy at $100. (Analysts’ price target is $110.94)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 9, 2019
Facing same issues as all the banks. Cheaper valuation, so bit more protected on the downside. No earnings growth. Not getting the spread when rates are compressed.
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Facing same issues as all the banks. Cheaper valuation, so bit more protected on the downside. No earnings growth. Not getting the spread when rates are compressed.
BUY
BUY
September 6, 2019
Seasonality around October, as it is year end for them. It’s at an attractive place. It’s at the low end of its trading range so he would be a buyer here. It won’t stay here for too long.
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Seasonality around October, as it is year end for them. It’s at an attractive place. It’s at the low end of its trading range so he would be a buyer here. It won’t stay here for too long.