Canfor Pulp Products

CFX-T

Analysis and Opinions about CFX-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
SELL
SELL
May 8, 2017

Seasonally, forest product stocks have a history of reaching a peak around the 3rd week in April. This year is no different. Probably an opportunity to take some money off table.

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Seasonally, forest product stocks have a history of reaching a peak around the 3rd week in April. This year is no different. Probably an opportunity to take some money off table.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 24, 2016

CFP-T vs. CFX-T. CFP-T has more leverage to building products. He prefers it over CFX-T. He does not invest in pulp.

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CFP-T vs. CFX-T. CFP-T has more leverage to building products. He prefers it over CFX-T. He does not invest in pulp.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 13, 2015

(A Top Pick April 22/14. Up 36.7%.) One of the largest softwood pulp producers globally. It is a play on the growing middle class of India and China. Benefiting from a weak Cdn$. Have a strong balance sheet with net cash. Expecting they are going to generate $1.50-$2 in free cash flow, which will lead to all kinds of opportunities for them.

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(A Top Pick April 22/14. Up 36.7%.) One of the largest softwood pulp producers globally. It is a play on the growing middle class of India and China. Benefiting from a weak Cdn$. Have a strong balance sheet with net cash. Expecting they are going to generate $1.50-$2 in free cash flow, which will lead to all kinds of opportunities for them.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 22, 2014

A large producer of softwood pulp in North America which goes into producing things like tissue paper, etc. Benefiting from current strong pulp prices and a weak Cdn$. Thinks it is going to generate a very significant amount of free cash flow over the next couple of years, in excess of $1 a share. Yield of 1.86% and there is a very strong possibility that this will be increased significantly over the next 12-18 months.

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A large producer of softwood pulp in North America which goes into producing things like tissue paper, etc. Benefiting from current strong pulp prices and a weak Cdn$. Thinks it is going to generate a very significant amount of free cash flow over the next couple of years, in excess of $1 a share. Yield of 1.86% and there is a very strong possibility that this will be increased significantly over the next 12-18 months.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 17, 2013

This one can be traded. On May 22/13 to June 24/13 there was a dip in the stock price. Pulp is cyclical. If there is any kind of questionable growth or volatility in the market, you will see this one suffer a little bit of a downdraft.

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Canfor Pulp Products (CFX-T)
September 17, 2013

This one can be traded. On May 22/13 to June 24/13 there was a dip in the stock price. Pulp is cyclical. If there is any kind of questionable growth or volatility in the market, you will see this one suffer a little bit of a downdraft.

BUY
BUY
March 7, 2013

Just reinstated their dividend last quarter because results have been better on the pulp side. Clearly the dividend will be able to grow. Also, could be a takeout candidate by Canfor Corp (CFP-T), their parent.

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Just reinstated their dividend last quarter because results have been better on the pulp side. Clearly the dividend will be able to grow. Also, could be a takeout candidate by Canfor Corp (CFP-T), their parent.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 22, 2013

Doesn’t think they look for too much out of the pulp side of the business. It’s mainly lumber. If you are going to play anything in this area he would prefer you do Canfor (CFP-T) directly.

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Doesn’t think they look for too much out of the pulp side of the business. It’s mainly lumber. If you are going to play anything in this area he would prefer you do Canfor (CFP-T) directly.

BUY
BUY
January 7, 2013

This one has been basing on the price chart for the last little while. Market seems to be hardening up a little bit for pulp prices. Thinks this one can probably go higher over the next couple of months. Wouldn’t be hard to see $13-$14 on this.

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This one has been basing on the price chart for the last little while. Market seems to be hardening up a little bit for pulp prices. Thinks this one can probably go higher over the next couple of months. Wouldn’t be hard to see $13-$14 on this.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 28, 2012

Had a wonderful run from 2010 up to about $18 but unfortunately it turned around and now is in a major downtrend. Not making any kind of a base.

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Had a wonderful run from 2010 up to about $18 but unfortunately it turned around and now is in a major downtrend. Not making any kind of a base.

SELL
SELL
October 1, 2012

Producer of an industrial product and Chinese dictate demand. Price is whacked. You might want to lock in any capital losses.

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Producer of an industrial product and Chinese dictate demand. Price is whacked. You might want to lock in any capital losses.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 26, 2012

There is a big price war so margins keep coming down. In the last week or so, inventories have come down a little bit so there has been a slight pause. He finds value elsewhere.

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Canfor Pulp Products (CFX-T)
September 26, 2012

There is a big price war so margins keep coming down. In the last week or so, inventories have come down a little bit so there has been a slight pause. He finds value elsewhere.

HOLD
HOLD
July 5, 2012
Lumber companies depend on the US housing market. If you can look past the value to when things start to pick up, this could be one that does OK. He is not in this sector right now but the ducks are starting to line up.
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Lumber companies depend on the US housing market. If you can look past the value to when things start to pick up, this could be one that does OK. He is not in this sector right now but the ducks are starting to line up.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 6, 2012
Has come down with the market and you wait for recovery in the sector. Pretty well run. Yield of around 3% and he doesn't know of any threats to this.
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Has come down with the market and you wait for recovery in the sector. Pretty well run. Yield of around 3% and he doesn't know of any threats to this.
BUY
BUY
May 30, 2012
Been a very volatile trader. He thinks it is a better company now. They did a lot of Cap-X. They are vulnerable to a price cycle at home. Return is good. They might have to trim the dividend again. You could trade it.
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Been a very volatile trader. He thinks it is a better company now. They did a lot of Cap-X. They are vulnerable to a price cycle at home. Return is good. They might have to trim the dividend again. You could trade it.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 27, 2012
Chart is showing a trend change. Yielding 11% so this makes him nervous.
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Chart is showing a trend change. Yielding 11% so this makes him nervous.
HOLD
HOLD
January 20, 2012
Yielding about 11%. Thought was that the payout was cut but months have gone by and it has not been cut. The price of pulp has been coming down, but stabilized recently. Thinks it will be ok even if it cuts its payout.
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Yielding about 11%. Thought was that the payout was cut but months have gone by and it has not been cut. The price of pulp has been coming down, but stabilized recently. Thinks it will be ok even if it cuts its payout.
BUY
BUY
January 10, 2012
They might be rising from the dead. He is convinced this is not a dead company. They survived the downturn. Has a fabulous yield of 13%, which doesn’t seem to be in danger. Low debt.
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They might be rising from the dead. He is convinced this is not a dead company. They survived the downturn. Has a fabulous yield of 13%, which doesn’t seem to be in danger. Low debt.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 5, 2012
Their fortunes are dependent on the price of pulp and recently the price has been a little bit weak. Some of the Chinese pricing has been backing off. He is not sure that commodities are going to be the place to target this year. He would like to see a trade through the 200 day moving average first.
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Their fortunes are dependent on the price of pulp and recently the price has been a little bit weak. Some of the Chinese pricing has been backing off. He is not sure that commodities are going to be the place to target this year. He would like to see a trade through the 200 day moving average first.
WAIT
WAIT
January 4, 2012
Has come off sharply because of a drop in pulp prices. Very volatile trader. BMO reduced its target today. Pulp prices are starting to bottom. CFX has low debt and does not have to shut at a low price point. Thinks they will see an increase in prices this year although they may go a little lower. Have not set the dividend for the year and it might get cut back a bit.
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Has come off sharply because of a drop in pulp prices. Very volatile trader. BMO reduced its target today. Pulp prices are starting to bottom. CFX has low debt and does not have to shut at a low price point. Thinks they will see an increase in prices this year although they may go a little lower. Have not set the dividend for the year and it might get cut back a bit.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 29, 2011
Economically sensitive. There is some question around pricing for this company and their distribution is dependent on strong pricing.
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Economically sensitive. There is some question around pricing for this company and their distribution is dependent on strong pricing.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 15, 2011
Done nothing but trend downwards since summer. In seasonality we are getting into a firmer part. It should take off from the November low. Buy about $11
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Done nothing but trend downwards since summer. In seasonality we are getting into a firmer part. It should take off from the November low. Buy about $11
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 7, 2011
High yield of about 11% or so and paying out about 100% of what it earns, which is a little bit of concern for him. Last quarter was a little light because of lower pulp prices.
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High yield of about 11% or so and paying out about 100% of what it earns, which is a little bit of concern for him. Last quarter was a little light because of lower pulp prices.
HOLD
HOLD
October 3, 2011
14% high-yield creates fear as they feel something must be wrong. Pulp prices have come off, but not as much percentagewise as what the stock has come off. Feels it is overdone.
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14% high-yield creates fear as they feel something must be wrong. Pulp prices have come off, but not as much percentagewise as what the stock has come off. Feels it is overdone.
HOLD
HOLD
September 13, 2011
Pulp prices have been quite strong and distributions have been very good. Believes distribution is safe. But if you look at this summer, weakness in economy would wash over this company.
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Canfor Pulp Products (CFX-T)
September 13, 2011
Pulp prices have been quite strong and distributions have been very good. Believes distribution is safe. But if you look at this summer, weakness in economy would wash over this company.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 24, 2011
Nothing company specific right now. He is not crazy about the pulp industry. Long-term future of the industry is lousy.
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Nothing company specific right now. He is not crazy about the pulp industry. Long-term future of the industry is lousy.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 21, 2011
Forest products are doing fairly well but the market doesn’t care any more. It just doesn’t interest him.
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Forest products are doing fairly well but the market doesn’t care any more. It just doesn’t interest him.
BUY
BUY
June 28, 2011
Continues to be a core position. Has ability to raise prices if there is inflation in the system. Pulp has continued to be very strong. Will be able to continue to pay a good yield.
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Continues to be a core position. Has ability to raise prices if there is inflation in the system. Pulp has continued to be very strong. Will be able to continue to pay a good yield.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 27, 2011
(A Top Pick June 11/10. Up 32.26%.) Paying a very healthy dividend and he expects they will continue earning this and paying it. Has been volatile. Current price is a good place to buy. Probably in the low $20's in 12 months. Pulp prices are strong because paper prices are strong. They are also selling a lot of electricity into the BC grid.
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(A Top Pick June 11/10. Up 32.26%.) Paying a very healthy dividend and he expects they will continue earning this and paying it. Has been volatile. Current price is a good place to buy. Probably in the low $20's in 12 months. Pulp prices are strong because paper prices are strong. They are also selling a lot of electricity into the BC grid.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 18, 2011
(A Top Pick May 10/10. Up 28.24%.)
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(A Top Pick May 10/10. Up 28.24%.)
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 16, 2011
(A Top Pick April 22/10. Up 56.99%.) Still likes. Very good yield. Generates a lot of electricity, which goes into the grid. Currently a Hold.
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(A Top Pick April 22/10. Up 56.99%.) Still likes. Very good yield. Generates a lot of electricity, which goes into the grid. Currently a Hold.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
April 15, 2011
Has an excellent yield of 7.7%, which he feels they can maintain. Likes to buy in the $14 range.
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Has an excellent yield of 7.7%, which he feels they can maintain. Likes to buy in the $14 range.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 13, 2011
(A Top Pick April 22/10. Up 47.99%.) Still a Buy.
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(A Top Pick April 22/10. Up 47.99%.) Still a Buy.
BUY
BUY
April 7, 2011
Pulp is in strong demand. Because of consolidation over the last few years, supply is relatively tight. Yield will probably be very strong over the next year.
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Pulp is in strong demand. Because of consolidation over the last few years, supply is relatively tight. Yield will probably be very strong over the next year.
HOLD
HOLD
March 29, 2011
Hold it for the yield. Doesn’t know if you will get much more growth in it. It has a strong headwind with the Canadian dollar as strong as it is. He would lighten it at this point. Payout is relatively safe in here.
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Hold it for the yield. Doesn’t know if you will get much more growth in it. It has a strong headwind with the Canadian dollar as strong as it is. He would lighten it at this point. Payout is relatively safe in here.
HOLD
HOLD
February 7, 2011
This will be more directed to the Asian market over time. Good dividend and doesn’t think it’s in jeopardy.
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This will be more directed to the Asian market over time. Good dividend and doesn’t think it’s in jeopardy.
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
February 3, 2011
Really likes it. Pulp is in big demand. Trimmed their very high distribution to a dividend but still paying close to 10%.
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Really likes it. Pulp is in big demand. Trimmed their very high distribution to a dividend but still paying close to 10%.
HOLD
HOLD
January 28, 2011
People are starting to get optimistic about forest product sector. Hasn’t been a particularly a good performer and the pricing has not been very good. When looking at the FMV, they don’t jump out. Trading at around 1.5X Book and it’s alright.
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