SPDR Cons Discretionary ETF

XLY-N

NYSEARCA:XLY

115.83
0.75 (0.64%)

Analysis and Opinions about XLY-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 30, 2015

This is a seasonal call. Although he respects the seasonals, he is technical and fundamental. The idea is that you rotate out of the discretionary stocks after the winter, and you go into staples. You then reverse this in the summer. In this case, he waited until December because the staples were the out-performers right up until the end of the year. Then he started to see the staples underperform a bit, so he rolled into the discretionarys late in the year. This is showing the higher highs and higher lows. He thinks this will move until at least April-May.

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This is a seasonal call. Although he respects the seasonals, he is technical and fundamental. The idea is that you rotate out of the discretionary stocks after the winter, and you go into staples. You then reverse this in the summer. In this case, he waited until December because the staples were the out-performers right up until the end of the year. Then he started to see the staples underperform a bit, so he rolled into the discretionarys late in the year. This is showing the higher highs and higher lows. He thinks this will move until at least April-May.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 31, 2014

(A Top Pick Oct 1/14. Up 11.05%.) On a seasonal basis, this still looks very good. This particular security has a positive seasonality from the middle of October right through until the end of April.

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(A Top Pick Oct 1/14. Up 11.05%.) On a seasonal basis, this still looks very good. This particular security has a positive seasonality from the middle of October right through until the end of April.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 1, 2014

Don’t buy today. Restaurants, Disney, Retail, etc. Good from mid October to first week in January. It has an upward long term trend, but it is slightly negative compared to the market and below its 20 day moving average.

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Don’t buy today. Restaurants, Disney, Retail, etc. Good from mid October to first week in January. It has an upward long term trend, but it is slightly negative compared to the market and below its 20 day moving average.

HOLD
HOLD
February 12, 2014

Period of seasonal strength for this is normally from the end of October through until May of each year. Chart shows it is doing pretty good this year and this is still in an upward trend. Not outperforming the market though and trading right around its 20 day moving average. Technicals are a little bit mixed right now but they are not bad. You want to continue owning the Consumer Discretionary sector until around the end of April when you could switch to the Consumers Staples (XLP-N). Historically, this has been a good strategy and you can do Pairs trades based on the strategy of changing into this in May and then back again in October.

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Period of seasonal strength for this is normally from the end of October through until May of each year. Chart shows it is doing pretty good this year and this is still in an upward trend. Not outperforming the market though and trading right around its 20 day moving average. Technicals are a little bit mixed right now but they are not bad. You want to continue owning the Consumer Discretionary sector until around the end of April when you could switch to the Consumers Staples (XLP-N). Historically, this has been a good strategy and you can do Pairs trades based on the strategy of changing into this in May and then back again in October.

BUY
BUY
September 16, 2013

Consumer discretionary ETF. He recommends it.

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Consumer discretionary ETF. He recommends it.

HOLD
HOLD
April 12, 2013

He often pairs Consumers Discretionary with Consumer Staples (XLP-N) and we are getting to the critical time very shortly. Historically, you want to be in this one right around November and hold it until, on average, April 22. Just hit an all-time high today. Hang on until you start seeing technical signs of it starting to roll over. He’ll probably be taking profits on this one in the next week or 2.

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He often pairs Consumers Discretionary with Consumer Staples (XLP-N) and we are getting to the critical time very shortly. Historically, you want to be in this one right around November and hold it until, on average, April 22. Just hit an all-time high today. Hang on until you start seeing technical signs of it starting to roll over. He’ll probably be taking profits on this one in the next week or 2.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 3, 2012
Top Short Shorting discretionary in the summer in the past has worked well. It is just starting to roll over. When it falls to $40 you would consider covering. It is not like a stop loss for him though.
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Top Short Shorting discretionary in the summer in the past has worked well. It is just starting to roll over. When it falls to $40 you would consider covering. It is not like a stop loss for him though.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 3, 2012
(A Top Pick Oct 27/11. Up 15.52%.) He is now short this one as a Pairs trade with consumer staples (SPDR Consumer Staples ETF (XLP-N)?).
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(A Top Pick Oct 27/11. Up 15.52%.) He is now short this one as a Pairs trade with consumer staples (SPDR Consumer Staples ETF (XLP-N)?).
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 27, 2011
(Top Pick May 5/11, Down 0.14%) Go long the discretionaries. A good time seasonally. He may exit it at some point in the middle.
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(Top Pick May 5/11, Down 0.14%) Go long the discretionaries. A good time seasonally. He may exit it at some point in the middle.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 5, 2011
Top Short Consumer Discretionary ETF. Basically a Pairs Trade. He goes long the staples sector and goes short the discretionary sector. If the market goes down, he is expecting the discretionary sector to go down more.
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Top Short Consumer Discretionary ETF. Basically a Pairs Trade. He goes long the staples sector and goes short the discretionary sector. If the market goes down, he is expecting the discretionary sector to go down more.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 28, 2011
(A Top Pick Nov 1/10. Up 12.51%.) Consumer Discretionary ETF. Consumer stocks do well on average every year from October to the middle of April. Will hold this for a couple of months from here.
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(A Top Pick Nov 1/10. Up 12.51%.) Consumer Discretionary ETF. Consumer stocks do well on average every year from October to the middle of April. Will hold this for a couple of months from here.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 1, 2010
Shorted this in August. Now long. It is a seasonally strong period for this. If you switch back and forth between staple and discretionary, you would be way up but not if you didn’t. Last year trade worked out very well. Actual trade ends April 22nd. It’s not done as a paired trade this time. He may short staples in January if it is weak.
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Shorted this in August. Now long. It is a seasonally strong period for this. If you switch back and forth between staple and discretionary, you would be way up but not if you didn’t. Last year trade worked out very well. Actual trade ends April 22nd. It’s not done as a paired trade this time. He may short staples in January if it is weak.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 5, 2010
Top Short Short with a long on XLP-N – See comments on XLP-N for pairs trade.
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Top Short Short with a long on XLP-N – See comments on XLP-N for pairs trade.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 24, 2009
Staples tend to become less favourable around the end of October and discretionary becomes more favourable. If the economists are right about the recession ending, it should be more discretionary spending by the consumer. Expect this will pull back to $26, which would be an ideal point to enter.
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Staples tend to become less favourable around the end of October and discretionary becomes more favourable. If the economists are right about the recession ending, it should be more discretionary spending by the consumer. Expect this will pull back to $26, which would be an ideal point to enter.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 11, 2006

(Top Short July 24/06. Up 13.5%.) Still thinks the consumers a big risk. Actually stopped himself out of that trade. Still a risky place to be.

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(Top Short July 24/06. Up 13.5%.) Still thinks the consumers a big risk. Actually stopped himself out of that trade. Still a risky place to be.

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