Guide Exploration

GO-T

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Analysis and Opinions about GO-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 21, 2013

(A Top Pick July 4/12. Down 1.79%.) Acquired by Long Run Exploration (LRE-T) in Oct/12. LRE would be a fabulous buy under $4.

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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
August 21, 2013

(A Top Pick July 4/12. Down 1.79%.) Acquired by Long Run Exploration (LRE-T) in Oct/12. LRE would be a fabulous buy under $4.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
September 25, 2012

(A Top Pick July 4/12. Up 1.79%.) Merging with WestFire Energy (WFE-T) in October, which makes a lot of sense. Likes this company longer-term. This is one you want to own for the long run.

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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
September 25, 2012

(A Top Pick July 4/12. Up 1.79%.) Merging with WestFire Energy (WFE-T) in October, which makes a lot of sense. Likes this company longer-term. This is one you want to own for the long run.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 4, 2012
0.4 price to book ratio. Bounced up a little bit. Likes it. Book value was $3.99 in March. Should be 40%+ oil and liquids next year. Northwest Alberta corridor. If it stays as cheap as it is someone will come knocking, but wait until the fall to buy.
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0.4 price to book ratio. Bounced up a little bit. Likes it. Book value was $3.99 in March. Should be 40%+ oil and liquids next year. Northwest Alberta corridor. If it stays as cheap as it is someone will come knocking, but wait until the fall to buy.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 5, 2012
(A Top Pick May 10/11. Down 40.32%.) Doing about 15,000-16,000 barrels a day of which 37% is liquids, 5700 BOEs a day. Has a nice spread in the West 5 area. Cheap but it could get cheaper.
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(A Top Pick May 10/11. Down 40.32%.) Doing about 15,000-16,000 barrels a day of which 37% is liquids, 5700 BOEs a day. Has a nice spread in the West 5 area. Cheap but it could get cheaper.
BUY
BUY
March 19, 2012
(Market Call Minute) Cut reserves today. Much cleaner story now. If you are patient on Nat Gas, it is ok.
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(Market Call Minute) Cut reserves today. Much cleaner story now. If you are patient on Nat Gas, it is ok.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 16, 2011
Sitting on a huge land spread. Just had a new management change. Has been struggling to grow production for several years. Will take a little while for the management team to chew through the properties and divest themselves of non-core assets. On a long-term holding you could do okay but he prefers others.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
August 16, 2011
Sitting on a huge land spread. Just had a new management change. Has been struggling to grow production for several years. Will take a little while for the management team to chew through the properties and divest themselves of non-core assets. On a long-term holding you could do okay but he prefers others.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 8, 2011
Management was chronically over promising. But management had turned over. Have extensive land package. There is no leadership or game plan today. Production is declining.
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Management was chronically over promising. But management had turned over. Have extensive land package. There is no leadership or game plan today. Production is declining.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 10, 2011
Doing 13,500-14,000 BOE's a day and expected to average 14,000 a day. Got into the doghouse when involved with the Pasqua and Cardium. Had to sell assets. Doing 37%-38% oil and liquids which is over 50% of revenues. Fabulous value story with BV of $7.97. Has an NAV of $5.48 at the end of 2010. Expecting $1.50 annualized cash flow at the end of 2011.Very cheap.
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Doing 13,500-14,000 BOE's a day and expected to average 14,000 a day. Got into the doghouse when involved with the Pasqua and Cardium. Had to sell assets. Doing 37%-38% oil and liquids which is over 50% of revenues. Fabulous value story with BV of $7.97. Has an NAV of $5.48 at the end of 2010. Expecting $1.50 annualized cash flow at the end of 2011.Very cheap.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 4, 2011
Have not had a good time of things. Let leverage get too high and had to sell key assets that use to be their jewels. Reserve bookings have been in question. Have retrenched and focusing on probable reserves and turning them into proved reserves. Have lost a lot of their luster and the attention of the street.
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Have not had a good time of things. Let leverage get too high and had to sell key assets that use to be their jewels. Reserve bookings have been in question. Have retrenched and focusing on probable reserves and turning them into proved reserves. Have lost a lot of their luster and the attention of the street.
BUY
BUY
April 14, 2011
Likes this one. Has a $5.50 target. Sees an NAV of $5.48. Expecting them to do 14,400 BOE’s a day this year. About 34% of oil and liquids, which will be cash flowing them $122 million. Debt about $136 million. Just over 1:1 debt to cash flow ratio. Could see volumes growing up to 15,000 BOE’s a day by year-end.
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Likes this one. Has a $5.50 target. Sees an NAV of $5.48. Expecting them to do 14,400 BOE’s a day this year. About 34% of oil and liquids, which will be cash flowing them $122 million. Debt about $136 million. Just over 1:1 debt to cash flow ratio. Could see volumes growing up to 15,000 BOE’s a day by year-end.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 9, 2011
Stuck in a trading range of $3.50 to $4.50 and he feels it’s dead money. Attractive on a valuation basis as it’s trading at a significant discount at 4X enterprise value to cash flow for production and also cheap on book reserves but feels reserves are aggressively booked.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
February 9, 2011
Stuck in a trading range of $3.50 to $4.50 and he feels it’s dead money. Attractive on a valuation basis as it’s trading at a significant discount at 4X enterprise value to cash flow for production and also cheap on book reserves but feels reserves are aggressively booked.
WAIT
WAIT
February 8, 2011
Lot of similarities with SU. Looks like a good place to be. $6.00-$6.80 resistance. In short term, some of indicators are overbought. Then it is going to go much higher.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
February 8, 2011
Lot of similarities with SU. Looks like a good place to be. $6.00-$6.80 resistance. In short term, some of indicators are overbought. Then it is going to go much higher.
HOLD
HOLD
December 14, 2010
Buy at $3.50, sell at $4.25-$4.50. In a no man’s land. Looking at flat production growth. Can withstand a low natural gas price.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
December 14, 2010
Buy at $3.50, sell at $4.25-$4.50. In a no man’s land. Looking at flat production growth. Can withstand a low natural gas price.
SELL
SELL
November 26, 2010
(Market Call Minute.) Over promise and under deliver from management.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
November 26, 2010
(Market Call Minute.) Over promise and under deliver from management.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 24, 2010
(A Top Pick Nov 5/09. Down 30%.) Was above its 200 day moving average and then dropped below. Sold his holdings at about where he had bought.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
November 24, 2010
(A Top Pick Nov 5/09. Down 30%.) Was above its 200 day moving average and then dropped below. Sold his holdings at about where he had bought.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 8, 2010
(Top Pick Dec 1/09, Down 17%) It was a value play. They have huge assets. He hoped they could execute on a strategy and grow production. They had a number of set backs and he exited the position.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
November 8, 2010
(Top Pick Dec 1/09, Down 17%) It was a value play. They have huge assets. He hoped they could execute on a strategy and grow production. They had a number of set backs and he exited the position.
HOLD
HOLD
October 27, 2010
If you are a believer in the recovery of natural gas prices for 2011, you’ll do quite well. Value of their proven reserves is about $4.25 in a $5 natural gas market. Have decreased their financial leverage so debt to cash flow is about 1X.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
October 27, 2010
If you are a believer in the recovery of natural gas prices for 2011, you’ll do quite well. Value of their proven reserves is about $4.25 in a $5 natural gas market. Have decreased their financial leverage so debt to cash flow is about 1X.
SELL
SELL
August 31, 2010
Completed strategic review and no buyer could be found. Struggling to meet production. A name to sell or at least not buy.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
August 31, 2010
Completed strategic review and no buyer could be found. Struggling to meet production. A name to sell or at least not buy.
BUY
BUY
August 24, 2010
A brutal story. He was buying it today. He is using it as a way to play an unbelievably beaten up story. It’s cheap on a reserve basis and on a cash flow basis. CEO changed. Limited downside.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
August 24, 2010
A brutal story. He was buying it today. He is using it as a way to play an unbelievably beaten up story. It’s cheap on a reserve basis and on a cash flow basis. CEO changed. Limited downside.
SELL
SELL
August 6, 2010
Thinks investment world has lost faith with management. Consider moving to Emerge (EME-T).
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Thinks investment world has lost faith with management. Consider moving to Emerge (EME-T).
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 27, 2010
Oil and Gas in Western Canada. Sold one of their large assets. Still looking at other options to raise cash.
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Oil and Gas in Western Canada. Sold one of their large assets. Still looking at other options to raise cash.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 16, 2010
Chart is showing quite a bit of weakness relative to its peers. If you are currently in this, don't average down but consider reducing out of it.
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Chart is showing quite a bit of weakness relative to its peers. If you are currently in this, don't average down but consider reducing out of it.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 10, 2010
Concerns him. They were looking for someone to buy the company in its entirety but sold a part so suggests they were unsuccessful in finding a buyer. There are much better names to invest in.
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Concerns him. They were looking for someone to buy the company in its entirety but sold a part so suggests they were unsuccessful in finding a buyer. There are much better names to invest in.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 1, 2010
(Top Pick Jun 11/09, Up 21.40%) Effectively up for sale right now.
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(Top Pick Jun 11/09, Up 21.40%) Effectively up for sale right now.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 18, 2010
(Top Pick Nov 5/09, Up 6% total return) The junior oils are doing better than the senior oils. It just pulled back to its 200 day moving average, which is rising and he thinks this is a good buying opportunity. Stop loss at $4.65. Still has a lot of upside potential.
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(Top Pick Nov 5/09, Up 6% total return) The junior oils are doing better than the senior oils. It just pulled back to its 200 day moving average, which is rising and he thinks this is a good buying opportunity. Stop loss at $4.65. Still has a lot of upside potential.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 14, 2010
Q1 results were quite good. Put themselves up for sale. Doesn't think there is a huge amount of downside. Relatively inexpensive but doesn't expect to see a lot of M&A activity for a while.
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Q1 results were quite good. Put themselves up for sale. Doesn't think there is a huge amount of downside. Relatively inexpensive but doesn't expect to see a lot of M&A activity for a while.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 16, 2010
Doing a strategic review so looking at all the terms including selling the company. He would be cautious on this one. Have some good acreage but have to prove up a lot of it and bring it into development, which means capital.
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Doing a strategic review so looking at all the terms including selling the company. He would be cautious on this one. Have some good acreage but have to prove up a lot of it and bring it into development, which means capital.
BUY
BUY
April 9, 2010
A lot of the natural gas stocks have pulled back a little. Now going through a transition of more of a resource play in the Montney and Doig plays. Still have more drilling to do to prove it out but thinks it will be successful.
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A lot of the natural gas stocks have pulled back a little. Now going through a transition of more of a resource play in the Montney and Doig plays. Still have more drilling to do to prove it out but thinks it will be successful.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 24, 2010
Very enviable position primarily in Alberta. 2 cautions. 1) They have put themselves up for sale and 2) have over promised and under delivered.
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Very enviable position primarily in Alberta. 2 cautions. 1) They have put themselves up for sale and 2) have over promised and under delivered.
BUY
BUY
March 8, 2010
Thinks it has room to move to the upside. Could be a takeover candidate.
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Thinks it has room to move to the upside. Could be a takeover candidate.
WAIT
WAIT
February 16, 2010
Highflying stock way back when. Really fell out of favour compared to pier group. There are doubts about management being able to meet their forecast. It won’t go up in multiple until you have had successive quarters meeting forecast. Great assets, but quiet money – unless they get taken out.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
February 16, 2010
Highflying stock way back when. Really fell out of favour compared to pier group. There are doubts about management being able to meet their forecast. It won’t go up in multiple until you have had successive quarters meeting forecast. Great assets, but quiet money – unless they get taken out.
SELL
SELL
February 8, 2010
Have not been able to make production targets for the last 3 years. There are questions as to whether they can grow.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
February 8, 2010
Have not been able to make production targets for the last 3 years. There are questions as to whether they can grow.
HOLD
HOLD
January 22, 2010
A “show me” story. Evenly weighted between gas and oil. Had some good oil results from the Doik (?) play, which is good.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
January 22, 2010
A “show me” story. Evenly weighted between gas and oil. Had some good oil results from the Doik (?) play, which is good.
BUY
BUY
January 20, 2010
Has been a bit of a laggard but thinks that energy over the first 6 months is poised to outperform. Sees oil in the $70-$90 range and all natural gas producers will benefit.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
January 20, 2010
Has been a bit of a laggard but thinks that energy over the first 6 months is poised to outperform. Sees oil in the $70-$90 range and all natural gas producers will benefit.
HOLD
HOLD
Guide Exploration (GO-T)
January 5, 2010
(Market Call Minute)
HOLD
HOLD
December 11, 2009
Disappointed in the last year or so by its inability to meet production forecasts. Becoming a “show me” story.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
December 11, 2009
Disappointed in the last year or so by its inability to meet production forecasts. Becoming a “show me” story.
HOLD
HOLD
December 7, 2009
Good management and have put together a reasonably good set of plays. Lost traction recently. Drilling in a very competitive area in central Alberta.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
December 7, 2009
Good management and have put together a reasonably good set of plays. Lost traction recently. Drilling in a very competitive area in central Alberta.
HOLD
HOLD
December 4, 2009
Natural gas. Under performer over the last few years because of some production issues. Looks cheap compared to its peers.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
December 4, 2009
Natural gas. Under performer over the last few years because of some production issues. Looks cheap compared to its peers.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 1, 2009
Have executed nicely over the last five years. Hasn't participated in the oil/gas rally. Asset rich with lots of drilling development. Have significant oil as well as unconventional natural gas plays in the Montney. Trading at about 5X net adjusted cash flow. Very cheap.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
December 1, 2009
Have executed nicely over the last five years. Hasn't participated in the oil/gas rally. Asset rich with lots of drilling development. Have significant oil as well as unconventional natural gas plays in the Montney. Trading at about 5X net adjusted cash flow. Very cheap.
BUY
BUY
November 30, 2009
About 60% natural gas and 40% light oil. Operate in the Peace River Arch in Alberta along with gas exposure in North-East BC. A recovery in gas prices will drive the stock forward.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
November 30, 2009
About 60% natural gas and 40% light oil. Operate in the Peace River Arch in Alberta along with gas exposure in North-East BC. A recovery in gas prices will drive the stock forward.
HOLD
HOLD
November 18, 2009
Like other gas producers, had a good pop through the summer. Focused in the Montney. A “wait and see” picture. 19,000 BOE's production per day. Transitioning from an explorer into a developer that usually results in some aches and pains.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
November 18, 2009
Like other gas producers, had a good pop through the summer. Focused in the Montney. A “wait and see” picture. 19,000 BOE's production per day. Transitioning from an explorer into a developer that usually results in some aches and pains.
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 18, 2009
Over promised and under delivered lately. Not much production growth over the past 2-3 years. Strong land base and a lot of opportunities.
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Guide Exploration (GO-T)
November 18, 2009