Caterpillar

CAT-N

NYSE:CAT

136.93
0.07 (0.05%)
Caterpillar Inc. is an American corporation which designs, develops, engineers, manufactures, markets and sells machinery, engines, financial products and insurance to customers via a worldwide dealer network.
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Analysis and Opinions about CAT-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY
BUY
February 8, 2018

AAPL-Q vs. CAT-N. CAT-N is machinery and has been a hero. They both really pulled back. CAT-N had a 22% earnings beat last quarter. AAPL-Q is really the iPhone X or 10 story. They missed on units. It is not a lost leader but the concept applies. This will be used like the iPad with augmented reality. You are in a very expensive period of time – an air pocket. AAPL-Q is a great company, however.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
February 8, 2018

AAPL-Q vs. CAT-N. CAT-N is machinery and has been a hero. They both really pulled back. CAT-N had a 22% earnings beat last quarter. AAPL-Q is really the iPhone X or 10 story. They missed on units. It is not a lost leader but the concept applies. This will be used like the iPad with augmented reality. You are in a very expensive period of time – an air pocket. AAPL-Q is a great company, however.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 6, 2017

(A Top Pick Nov 16/16. Down 52%.) *Short* At the time, this was trading at over 30 times earnings, with basically 3 years of down earnings. It was trading at a ridiculously high multiple. They missed on the past 5 quarters, and the stock had run up on the idea that Donald Trump was going to build the wall using thousands of Caterpillar tractors. He underestimated the global recovery, which helped sales. On top of that, they operationally improved their margins to such a degree that earnings recovery has grown through the estimates in the last three quarters. Has shorted again recently because, although a good story, it is trading at 25X what he thinks will be their peak earnings.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
November 6, 2017

(A Top Pick Nov 16/16. Down 52%.) *Short* At the time, this was trading at over 30 times earnings, with basically 3 years of down earnings. It was trading at a ridiculously high multiple. They missed on the past 5 quarters, and the stock had run up on the idea that Donald Trump was going to build the wall using thousands of Caterpillar tractors. He underestimated the global recovery, which helped sales. On top of that, they operationally improved their margins to such a degree that earnings recovery has grown through the estimates in the last three quarters. Has shorted again recently because, although a good story, it is trading at 25X what he thinks will be their peak earnings.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 11, 2017

This was basically left for dead and everybody was very negative on it. It hit a low in late January 2016, and has rebounded nicely. It was a long, long decline for the better part of 2 years, and then finally started to turn around, and it is breaking out again. This is its first break-out in 6 years. This is probably a pretty positive thing for everybody in the world, because it means very, very hard-core resources and commodities are getting moved around.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
October 11, 2017

This was basically left for dead and everybody was very negative on it. It hit a low in late January 2016, and has rebounded nicely. It was a long, long decline for the better part of 2 years, and then finally started to turn around, and it is breaking out again. This is its first break-out in 6 years. This is probably a pretty positive thing for everybody in the world, because it means very, very hard-core resources and commodities are getting moved around.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 21, 2017

It has done well through a difficult period. 80% of the revenue from that sector was just replacement parts. This equipment wears out and has to be replaced and maintained. It has the fastest earnings revisions of any S&P company. (Analysts’ target: $125.00).

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
September 21, 2017

It has done well through a difficult period. 80% of the revenue from that sector was just replacement parts. This equipment wears out and has to be replaced and maintained. It has the fastest earnings revisions of any S&P company. (Analysts’ target: $125.00).

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 3, 2017

(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 57%.) *Short* He closed out the Short on November 15. Overall, they have done really well, and certainly defied many people who thought a Short was a good idea.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
August 3, 2017

(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 57%.) *Short* He closed out the Short on November 15. Overall, they have done really well, and certainly defied many people who thought a Short was a good idea.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 3, 2017

Relative to what they’ve been through, this has really done well. 75% of revenues are global and they are in over 180 countries. Have had a few very tough years from an environment perspective, and have held up very well. Although things are turning around, he would not be a buyer. A lot of their business is in emerging market countries where brand isn’t as important as price, and their main competitor is much cheaper. The stock is way too expensive at around 30X PE.

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Relative to what they’ve been through, this has really done well. 75% of revenues are global and they are in over 180 countries. Have had a few very tough years from an environment perspective, and have held up very well. Although things are turning around, he would not be a buyer. A lot of their business is in emerging market countries where brand isn’t as important as price, and their main competitor is much cheaper. The stock is way too expensive at around 30X PE.

HOLD
HOLD
February 17, 2017

Things are slowly improving post- the election. It is one of the highest quality players in this area.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
February 17, 2017

Things are slowly improving post- the election. It is one of the highest quality players in this area.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 15, 2017

The perceived outlook from investors is that this company is well positioned to benefit from infrastructure spending and the global mining boom. Based on the valuation, it is trading above its historical multiple. A lot of the good news is already built into the share price. This is not an overly cheap stock.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
February 15, 2017

The perceived outlook from investors is that this company is well positioned to benefit from infrastructure spending and the global mining boom. Based on the valuation, it is trading above its historical multiple. A lot of the good news is already built into the share price. This is not an overly cheap stock.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 13, 2017

*Short* They’ve missed expectations 14 quarters in a row, 5 down-years of earnings. Management just said expectations were too high for next year. On their website, they are selling used equipment at a discount, rather than new equipment. Doesn’t see where growth is coming from. Dividend yield of 3.13%. (Analysts’ price target is $98.45.)

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
February 13, 2017

*Short* They’ve missed expectations 14 quarters in a row, 5 down-years of earnings. Management just said expectations were too high for next year. On their website, they are selling used equipment at a discount, rather than new equipment. Doesn’t see where growth is coming from. Dividend yield of 3.13%. (Analysts’ price target is $98.45.)

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 26, 2017

Had a great deal of difficulty for a number of years. They made an untimely move into mining way back. It was untimely. They went way down because commodity prices and economic growth in China both declined. They just reported okay results recently. It is not a near term story. Future good news it built into the stock price so he would avoid it.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
January 26, 2017

Had a great deal of difficulty for a number of years. They made an untimely move into mining way back. It was untimely. They went way down because commodity prices and economic growth in China both declined. They just reported okay results recently. It is not a near term story. Future good news it built into the stock price so he would avoid it.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 16, 2016

*Short* This has a little over $3 in earnings, and is trading at over 30X forward earnings. They’ve missed earnings in the past couple of quarters. The machinery capital spending business is slowing down because the mining industry has slowed down. They are starting to sell their own used equipment on their website, because there is not as much demand for the new stuff. The price is dropping at a 5% annual rate on what they are selling,. Dividend yield of 3.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $82.17.)

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
November 16, 2016

*Short* This has a little over $3 in earnings, and is trading at over 30X forward earnings. They’ve missed earnings in the past couple of quarters. The machinery capital spending business is slowing down because the mining industry has slowed down. They are starting to sell their own used equipment on their website, because there is not as much demand for the new stuff. The price is dropping at a 5% annual rate on what they are selling,. Dividend yield of 3.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $82.17.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 10, 2016

Any time a company is faced with such a tough environment, they always look at costs. Feels that with the rotation from mining into infrastructure, a lot of stocks have really done well. However, we still haven’t seen the bottom of the downturn.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
August 10, 2016

Any time a company is faced with such a tough environment, they always look at costs. Feels that with the rotation from mining into infrastructure, a lot of stocks have really done well. However, we still haven’t seen the bottom of the downturn.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 23, 2016

Canada has had a huge bounce, and none of these prices make any sense when you look at fundamentals, including mining. His model price is $47.51, a negative 38%. Dividend yield of 4%.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
June 23, 2016

Canada has had a huge bounce, and none of these prices make any sense when you look at fundamentals, including mining. His model price is $47.51, a negative 38%. Dividend yield of 4%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 14, 2016

When you look at a collapse in an asset class, such as energy in the last 18 months, he has never seen where it bottoms and turns around, and becomes a new leader right away. We have had a great rally in energy and there is some risk that as we get back the cost of production, new production will come on. This company had a tremendous rally since February, but is looking a lot like the energy and metals sectors, and there is some risk that it runs into resistance here and could roll over.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
June 14, 2016

When you look at a collapse in an asset class, such as energy in the last 18 months, he has never seen where it bottoms and turns around, and becomes a new leader right away. We have had a great rally in energy and there is some risk that as we get back the cost of production, new production will come on. This company had a tremendous rally since February, but is looking a lot like the energy and metals sectors, and there is some risk that it runs into resistance here and could roll over.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 13, 2016

*Short* This has had a really nice run off the bottom and is up about 35%. They capitalized big time on a once-in-a-lifetime mining boom, and he doubts if we are going to see that again. There are just too many headwinds. The street is talking up the name, but he could see this halved in price in the next year or so. Dividend yield of 4.09%.

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Caterpillar (CAT-N)
June 13, 2016

*Short* This has had a really nice run off the bottom and is up about 35%. They capitalized big time on a once-in-a-lifetime mining boom, and he doubts if we are going to see that again. There are just too many headwinds. The street is talking up the name, but he could see this halved in price in the next year or so. Dividend yield of 4.09%.

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