Obsidian Energy
OBE-T
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About Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
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He would not buy it right now because WTI will get a $10-$20 price erosion this year. The stock has gone up after people stopped worrying about them being able to repay their debt. The stock will go down if there is a retreat in the price of oil.
Everything that we know about the company is in the price right now. The volume is low and the stock is kind of flatlining here a little. You could be a buyer, but there are others he likes better. If crude is going to move, he’s not sure this stock will.
Everything that we know about the company is in the price right now. The volume is low and the stock is kind of flatlining here a little. You could be a buyer, but there are others he likes better. If crude is going to move, he’s not sure this stock will.
Unfortunately, the way the markets are focused on every little bit of data, there will be a move based in a large part on what the commodity is doing. January, for this company, traditionally has a pretty soft patch that dovetails with the overall market. Wait until early February, and then look at this again.
Unfortunately, the way the markets are focused on every little bit of data, there will be a move based in a large part on what the commodity is doing. January, for this company, traditionally has a pretty soft patch that dovetails with the overall market. Wait until early February, and then look at this again.
It was one of the worst mistakes he made of the last couple years. He hopes to sell it at $12-$14. He didn’t think this company would get into so much trouble. Since then they have paid off a lot of debt and now he is happy to hold it. The CEO came from Bankers and it was a top pick of his. There is one insider buying a lot of shares. He likes it and plans on holing it.
It was one of the worst mistakes he made of the last couple years. He hopes to sell it at $12-$14. He didn’t think this company would get into so much trouble. Since then they have paid off a lot of debt and now he is happy to hold it. The CEO came from Bankers and it was a top pick of his. There is one insider buying a lot of shares. He likes it and plans on holing it.
Feels that a lot of the street and analysts that will be covering this company, don’t know much about the new CEO. Thinks very highly of him. As the company goes through this period of divestitures, he thinks they are going to get down to 25,000 barrels of equivalent, and will be a much stronger company and much more focused. They are in the process of deleveraging their balance sheet, and thinks they are almost there. One to keep on your radar screen.
Feels that a lot of the street and analysts that will be covering this company, don’t know much about the new CEO. Thinks very highly of him. As the company goes through this period of divestitures, he thinks they are going to get down to 25,000 barrels of equivalent, and will be a much stronger company and much more focused. They are in the process of deleveraging their balance sheet, and thinks they are almost there. One to keep on your radar screen.
Thinks this has a fair amount of gas in its production. Although energy stocks in general have not been doing that well, the price of gas has just entered into a period of seasonal strength. Technically the chart is showing an improvement with the stock moving in an upward trend. Buy it for a move until around the 2nd week in December.
Thinks this has a fair amount of gas in its production. Although energy stocks in general have not been doing that well, the price of gas has just entered into a period of seasonal strength. Technically the chart is showing an improvement with the stock moving in an upward trend. Buy it for a move until around the 2nd week in December.
(Market Call Minute.) He really wants to like this, because the new CEO was the former CEO of Bankers Petroleum. Because of their numbers, it is just not attractive to him.
(Market Call Minute.) He really wants to like this, because the new CEO was the former CEO of Bankers Petroleum. Because of their numbers, it is just not attractive to him.
New management has done quite well in trying to transition the company. The debt has always been a big stranglehold on the company, and they have done very well addressing it by selling off assets. Now they have a much cleaner company, focused almost entirely on the Cardium. If they can keep costs low, which historically has been a problem for the company, it could end up being a pretty good company.
New management has done quite well in trying to transition the company. The debt has always been a big stranglehold on the company, and they have done very well addressing it by selling off assets. Now they have a much cleaner company, focused almost entirely on the Cardium. If they can keep costs low, which historically has been a problem for the company, it could end up being a pretty good company.
(Market Call Minute.) They cleaned up their company with a major asset sale. They are paying down their debt and will survive. BV is $5.39. This will be a great buy on weakness, $1.60-$1.70.
(Market Call Minute.) They cleaned up their company with a major asset sale. They are paying down their debt and will survive. BV is $5.39. This will be a great buy on weakness, $1.60-$1.70.
This was one of his major mistakes. The stock fell under $1, but has recovered after they sold off some of their assets. Their debt load was monstrous, but they were paying it down. He likes management which has an excellent skill set. It wouldn’t surprise him to see oil prices at $60-$70 or more before the end of 2017. If this happened, this company’s bottom line would look much, much better.
This was one of his major mistakes. The stock fell under $1, but has recovered after they sold off some of their assets. Their debt load was monstrous, but they were paying it down. He likes management which has an excellent skill set. It wouldn’t surprise him to see oil prices at $60-$70 or more before the end of 2017. If this happened, this company’s bottom line would look much, much better.
At one time this was an almost 200,000 barrel a day company. By the time the dust settles, this might be 30,000-40,000, focusing only on about 3 core plays. This isn’t even on his radar screen for investing.
At one time this was an almost 200,000 barrel a day company. By the time the dust settles, this might be 30,000-40,000, focusing only on about 3 core plays. This isn’t even on his radar screen for investing.
Just went from being something you could not touch to something that is interesting. You have to believe oil prices are going higher, which he is not convinced of. Assuming they are, they have a debt to cash flow of 2.4X, which is really manageable at $40 WTI price for 2016. That is great. They have an effective payout ratio of 62%. Cheap relative to their peers. However, its production declines by 72% from 2015 to 2017. He would prefer Crescent Point (CPG-T).
Just went from being something you could not touch to something that is interesting. You have to believe oil prices are going higher, which he is not convinced of. Assuming they are, they have a debt to cash flow of 2.4X, which is really manageable at $40 WTI price for 2016. That is great. They have an effective payout ratio of 62%. Cheap relative to their peers. However, its production declines by 72% from 2015 to 2017. He would prefer Crescent Point (CPG-T).
They have pulled off $1.1 billion in asset sales in Saskatchewan and Alberta, and were upgraded by a number of analysts. Raymond James to $3 and BNS to $2.25. There is probably some additional upside looking out over the next year. However, there are a couple who are neutral to flat with lower price targets. He would suggest you try to read all the stories on why they have their various price targets. The chart shows a tremendous amount of resistance, and he believes in the idea of “lower for longer”. Oil should probably stabilize over the next few years in the $50-$60 range, but by no means whatsoever are we coming back into balance. Inventory levels are massive compared to the 5-10 year averages. Thinks that will be with us for years and years to come. Wouldn’t be a big investor yet, but more inclined to probably Sell into this.
They have pulled off $1.1 billion in asset sales in Saskatchewan and Alberta, and were upgraded by a number of analysts. Raymond James to $3 and BNS to $2.25. There is probably some additional upside looking out over the next year. However, there are a couple who are neutral to flat with lower price targets. He would suggest you try to read all the stories on why they have their various price targets. The chart shows a tremendous amount of resistance, and he believes in the idea of “lower for longer”. Oil should probably stabilize over the next few years in the $50-$60 range, but by no means whatsoever are we coming back into balance. Inventory levels are massive compared to the 5-10 year averages. Thinks that will be with us for years and years to come. Wouldn’t be a big investor yet, but more inclined to probably Sell into this.
(Market Call Minute.) This is an absolute Sell.
The big issue is that they have a lot of debt. As their problems occurred, they had to sell, sell and sell. They now have $1.94 billion of debt, which is $3.86. BV is $5.84, so it is trading at a significant discount. Has long term debt out to 2020-2025. The big issue is that they took out $700 million impairment last year, and $1.1 billion the year before. They need a $45 number at the end of the year to not have another impairment. 2015 operating costs are higher than they should be. This is a Lottery 649 ticket.
The big issue is that they have a lot of debt. As their problems occurred, they had to sell, sell and sell. They now have $1.94 billion of debt, which is $3.86. BV is $5.84, so it is trading at a significant discount. Has long term debt out to 2020-2025. The big issue is that they took out $700 million impairment last year, and $1.1 billion the year before. They need a $45 number at the end of the year to not have another impairment. 2015 operating costs are higher than they should be. This is a Lottery 649 ticket.
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He would not buy it right now because WTI will get a $10-$20 price erosion this year. The stock has gone up after people stopped worrying about them being able to repay their debt. The stock will go down if there is a retreat in the price of oil.