Obsidian Energy

OBE-T

TSE:OBE

1.81
0.01 (0.55%)
Obsidian Energy Ltd. is a mid-sized Canadian oil and natural gas production company based in Calgary, Alberta. For a while it was one of the S&P/TSX 60, the sixty largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
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Analysis and Opinions about OBE-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
HOLD
HOLD
March 28, 2017

She does not see a takeover happening. It is an interesting company, having gone through quite a transformation, selling a lot of assets, and changing management team. Analysts are impressed with this new team. She believes they will cut costs and focus them in their core area. She sees funded growth for this company.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
March 28, 2017

She does not see a takeover happening. It is an interesting company, having gone through quite a transformation, selling a lot of assets, and changing management team. Analysts are impressed with this new team. She believes they will cut costs and focus them in their core area. She sees funded growth for this company.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 7, 2017

This has been a turnaround/repair story. He didn’t sell when it hit bottom, and since then it has tripled. They had about $2.5 billion in debt, which is now under $500 million. Their capital budget is $180 million, and they estimate the production growth will be about 15% before the end of the year. Of course, a lot of this comes down to oil/gas prices. (Analysts’ price target is $2.76.)

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
February 7, 2017

This has been a turnaround/repair story. He didn’t sell when it hit bottom, and since then it has tripled. They had about $2.5 billion in debt, which is now under $500 million. Their capital budget is $180 million, and they estimate the production growth will be about 15% before the end of the year. Of course, a lot of this comes down to oil/gas prices. (Analysts’ price target is $2.76.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 31, 2017

A turnaround story led by David French. The company’s problem was deleveraging, which they have done a good job in fixing. Looking at valuations relative to some of its peers, he prefers them. They still have some dwindling down of assets and further refocusing.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
January 31, 2017

A turnaround story led by David French. The company’s problem was deleveraging, which they have done a good job in fixing. Looking at valuations relative to some of its peers, he prefers them. They still have some dwindling down of assets and further refocusing.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 9, 2017

He would not buy it right now because WTI will get a $10-$20 price erosion this year. The stock has gone up after people stopped worrying about them being able to repay their debt. The stock will go down if there is a retreat in the price of oil.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
January 9, 2017

He would not buy it right now because WTI will get a $10-$20 price erosion this year. The stock has gone up after people stopped worrying about them being able to repay their debt. The stock will go down if there is a retreat in the price of oil.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 3, 2017

Everything that we know about the company is in the price right now. The volume is low and the stock is kind of flatlining here a little. You could be a buyer, but there are others he likes better. If crude is going to move, he’s not sure this stock will.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
January 3, 2017

Everything that we know about the company is in the price right now. The volume is low and the stock is kind of flatlining here a little. You could be a buyer, but there are others he likes better. If crude is going to move, he’s not sure this stock will.

WAIT
WAIT
December 28, 2016

Unfortunately, the way the markets are focused on every little bit of data, there will be a move based in a large part on what the commodity is doing. January, for this company, traditionally has a pretty soft patch that dovetails with the overall market. Wait until early February, and then look at this again.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
December 28, 2016

Unfortunately, the way the markets are focused on every little bit of data, there will be a move based in a large part on what the commodity is doing. January, for this company, traditionally has a pretty soft patch that dovetails with the overall market. Wait until early February, and then look at this again.

HOLD
HOLD
December 22, 2016

It was one of the worst mistakes he made of the last couple years. He hopes to sell it at $12-$14. He didn’t think this company would get into so much trouble. Since then they have paid off a lot of debt and now he is happy to hold it. The CEO came from Bankers and it was a top pick of his. There is one insider buying a lot of shares. He likes it and plans on holing it.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
December 22, 2016

It was one of the worst mistakes he made of the last couple years. He hopes to sell it at $12-$14. He didn’t think this company would get into so much trouble. Since then they have paid off a lot of debt and now he is happy to hold it. The CEO came from Bankers and it was a top pick of his. There is one insider buying a lot of shares. He likes it and plans on holing it.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 6, 2016

Feels that a lot of the street and analysts that will be covering this company, don’t know much about the new CEO. Thinks very highly of him. As the company goes through this period of divestitures, he thinks they are going to get down to 25,000 barrels of equivalent, and will be a much stronger company and much more focused. They are in the process of deleveraging their balance sheet, and thinks they are almost there. One to keep on your radar screen.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
December 6, 2016

Feels that a lot of the street and analysts that will be covering this company, don’t know much about the new CEO. Thinks very highly of him. As the company goes through this period of divestitures, he thinks they are going to get down to 25,000 barrels of equivalent, and will be a much stronger company and much more focused. They are in the process of deleveraging their balance sheet, and thinks they are almost there. One to keep on your radar screen.

HOLD
HOLD
October 14, 2016

Thinks this has a fair amount of gas in its production. Although energy stocks in general have not been doing that well, the price of gas has just entered into a period of seasonal strength. Technically the chart is showing an improvement with the stock moving in an upward trend. Buy it for a move until around the 2nd week in December.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
October 14, 2016

Thinks this has a fair amount of gas in its production. Although energy stocks in general have not been doing that well, the price of gas has just entered into a period of seasonal strength. Technically the chart is showing an improvement with the stock moving in an upward trend. Buy it for a move until around the 2nd week in December.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 7, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) He really wants to like this, because the new CEO was the former CEO of Bankers Petroleum. Because of their numbers, it is just not attractive to him.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
October 7, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) He really wants to like this, because the new CEO was the former CEO of Bankers Petroleum. Because of their numbers, it is just not attractive to him.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 16, 2016

New management has done quite well in trying to transition the company. The debt has always been a big stranglehold on the company, and they have done very well addressing it by selling off assets. Now they have a much cleaner company, focused almost entirely on the Cardium. If they can keep costs low, which historically has been a problem for the company, it could end up being a pretty good company.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
September 16, 2016

New management has done quite well in trying to transition the company. The debt has always been a big stranglehold on the company, and they have done very well addressing it by selling off assets. Now they have a much cleaner company, focused almost entirely on the Cardium. If they can keep costs low, which historically has been a problem for the company, it could end up being a pretty good company.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 6, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) They cleaned up their company with a major asset sale. They are paying down their debt and will survive. BV is $5.39. This will be a great buy on weakness, $1.60-$1.70.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
September 6, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) They cleaned up their company with a major asset sale. They are paying down their debt and will survive. BV is $5.39. This will be a great buy on weakness, $1.60-$1.70.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 5, 2016

This was one of his major mistakes. The stock fell under $1, but has recovered after they sold off some of their assets. Their debt load was monstrous, but they were paying it down. He likes management which has an excellent skill set. It wouldn’t surprise him to see oil prices at $60-$70 or more before the end of 2017. If this happened, this company’s bottom line would look much, much better.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
August 5, 2016

This was one of his major mistakes. The stock fell under $1, but has recovered after they sold off some of their assets. Their debt load was monstrous, but they were paying it down. He likes management which has an excellent skill set. It wouldn’t surprise him to see oil prices at $60-$70 or more before the end of 2017. If this happened, this company’s bottom line would look much, much better.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 21, 2016

At one time this was an almost 200,000 barrel a day company. By the time the dust settles, this might be 30,000-40,000, focusing only on about 3 core plays. This isn’t even on his radar screen for investing.

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At one time this was an almost 200,000 barrel a day company. By the time the dust settles, this might be 30,000-40,000, focusing only on about 3 core plays. This isn’t even on his radar screen for investing.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 17, 2016

Just went from being something you could not touch to something that is interesting. You have to believe oil prices are going higher, which he is not convinced of. Assuming they are, they have a debt to cash flow of 2.4X, which is really manageable at $40 WTI price for 2016. That is great. They have an effective payout ratio of 62%. Cheap relative to their peers. However, its production declines by 72% from 2015 to 2017. He would prefer Crescent Point (CPG-T).

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Just went from being something you could not touch to something that is interesting. You have to believe oil prices are going higher, which he is not convinced of. Assuming they are, they have a debt to cash flow of 2.4X, which is really manageable at $40 WTI price for 2016. That is great. They have an effective payout ratio of 62%. Cheap relative to their peers. However, its production declines by 72% from 2015 to 2017. He would prefer Crescent Point (CPG-T).

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