Obsidian Energy

OBE-T

TSE:OBE

1.21
0.11 (10.00%)
Obsidian Energy Ltd. is a mid-sized Canadian oil and natural gas production company based in Calgary, Alberta. For a while it was one of the S&P/TSX 60, the sixty largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
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Analysis and Opinions about OBE-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 1, 2018

They have gone through a lot of stress at the Board level but that seems to have cleared up. They have a strong balance sheet, with $328 million in debt compared to $2.17 billion of equity. Their production this year will be about the same as last year. He thinks this stock is cheap, like many of its peers, a humbler reflection of what it was in 2008.

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They have gone through a lot of stress at the Board level but that seems to have cleared up. They have a strong balance sheet, with $328 million in debt compared to $2.17 billion of equity. Their production this year will be about the same as last year. He thinks this stock is cheap, like many of its peers, a humbler reflection of what it was in 2008.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 18, 2018

After their recent conference call, he spoke with management and learned the activist investors have come to an agreement and will defer a 1-for-3 stock consolidation. He thinks they may sell the whole company and hopefully at a large premium. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $1.77 )

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
April 18, 2018

After their recent conference call, he spoke with management and learned the activist investors have come to an agreement and will defer a 1-for-3 stock consolidation. He thinks they may sell the whole company and hopefully at a large premium. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $1.77 )

SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
April 16, 2018

It hit upon hard times with an extremely highly leveraged balance sheet, but management has kept the company alive. They have significantly de-risked the company but it has shrunk. The balance sheet is very much improved. This is a very high risk/high reward kind of play.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
April 16, 2018

It hit upon hard times with an extremely highly leveraged balance sheet, but management has kept the company alive. They have significantly de-risked the company but it has shrunk. The balance sheet is very much improved. This is a very high risk/high reward kind of play.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 3, 2018

This has been in the news over the last week because a disgruntled shareholder group wants it to do different things. This is the old Penn-West, which was $36 in 2008 and is now $1.33. The company announced that they are putting assets up for sale and looking at otherwise to maximize shareholder value. Their long-term debt at the end of 2017 was 328 million, equity is $2.17 billion with a book value of $4.29. They have a Cardium asset play, which people like. The company is cheap, but there are lots of cheap energy stocks. Do you want to own this particular one? They could potentially be a $4 or $5 stock in the next cycle.

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This has been in the news over the last week because a disgruntled shareholder group wants it to do different things. This is the old Penn-West, which was $36 in 2008 and is now $1.33. The company announced that they are putting assets up for sale and looking at otherwise to maximize shareholder value. Their long-term debt at the end of 2017 was 328 million, equity is $2.17 billion with a book value of $4.29. They have a Cardium asset play, which people like. The company is cheap, but there are lots of cheap energy stocks. Do you want to own this particular one? They could potentially be a $4 or $5 stock in the next cycle.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 6, 2018

(A Top Pick June 8, 2017. Down 30.16%). This has continued to turn against him, but he doubled down on it recently. He has confidence in the CEO David French. He will see results tomorrow. This is a smaller company than it was with reduced debt. They are looking to grow 20% per year. Tremendous upside but a lot of risk.

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(A Top Pick June 8, 2017. Down 30.16%). This has continued to turn against him, but he doubled down on it recently. He has confidence in the CEO David French. He will see results tomorrow. This is a smaller company than it was with reduced debt. They are looking to grow 20% per year. Tremendous upside but a lot of risk.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 27, 2018

This is the former Penn West, which he bought and lost money on. They have relatively new management (16 months ago). The former Bankers’ Petroleum boss is running it. He thinks a takeover is possible here. This company has knocked out a lot of debt, which involved selling down assets and because of that revenues went down. However, the company has recently replaced 126% of their resource base. He expects it to grow 5 to 10% (Analysts’ price target is 1.80$)

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
February 27, 2018

This is the former Penn West, which he bought and lost money on. They have relatively new management (16 months ago). The former Bankers’ Petroleum boss is running it. He thinks a takeover is possible here. This company has knocked out a lot of debt, which involved selling down assets and because of that revenues went down. However, the company has recently replaced 126% of their resource base. He expects it to grow 5 to 10% (Analysts’ price target is 1.80$)

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 26, 2018

When you see little companies trading at these levels, the temptation is to buy them thinking they can turn into something really good. Their balance sheet has greatly improved. He models the 2018-2019 debt to cash flow as 2.3% and 2.2%. Not expensive, and he sees some production growth, 3% over the next couple of years. If he were going into one of the small guys, he would go into Enerplus (ERF-T) which has an incredible balance sheet.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
January 26, 2018

When you see little companies trading at these levels, the temptation is to buy them thinking they can turn into something really good. Their balance sheet has greatly improved. He models the 2018-2019 debt to cash flow as 2.3% and 2.2%. Not expensive, and he sees some production growth, 3% over the next couple of years. If he were going into one of the small guys, he would go into Enerplus (ERF-T) which has an incredible balance sheet.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 16, 2018

(A Top Pick Feb 7/17. Down 27%.) Just came out with results yesterday, and had some good results in the Cardium, one of their 3 areas. Have had difficulties in the past with the SEC, and settled a while ago for $48.6 million. If this gets put in play. He thinks they are looking at double digit growth in terms of output. Still has a big debt load relative to revenues. A good turnaround opportunity, and could end up doing very well.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
January 16, 2018

(A Top Pick Feb 7/17. Down 27%.) Just came out with results yesterday, and had some good results in the Cardium, one of their 3 areas. Have had difficulties in the past with the SEC, and settled a while ago for $48.6 million. If this gets put in play. He thinks they are looking at double digit growth in terms of output. Still has a big debt load relative to revenues. A good turnaround opportunity, and could end up doing very well.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 5, 2018

He would not own this, despite his admiration for the CEO. The CEO inherited a hodgepodge of old, mature, tired assets with a couple of exceptions. The trouble is that he is exposed to liabilities, higher operating costs and leverage is at the upper end.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
January 5, 2018

He would not own this, despite his admiration for the CEO. The CEO inherited a hodgepodge of old, mature, tired assets with a couple of exceptions. The trouble is that he is exposed to liabilities, higher operating costs and leverage is at the upper end.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 26, 2017

He’s lost a fair bit of money on this, but is happy to hold. The major problem they are facing is with the SEC. They thought they had settled and it appeared everything was good, but now the SEC has come back after them. That is ultimately going to cost them time and money. It is the kind of a distraction that a company really doesn’t need. Expects there will be some tax loss selling towards the end of the year, so you may be able to get in at a better price.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
September 26, 2017

He’s lost a fair bit of money on this, but is happy to hold. The major problem they are facing is with the SEC. They thought they had settled and it appeared everything was good, but now the SEC has come back after them. That is ultimately going to cost them time and money. It is the kind of a distraction that a company really doesn’t need. Expects there will be some tax loss selling towards the end of the year, so you may be able to get in at a better price.

BUY
BUY
August 14, 2017

The former Penn West. This is a company he has lost money on. They sold off an incredible amount of their assets. The CEO used to be the CEO of another company that had properties in Albania and was taken over. It would not surprise him if they sell this company, too. He is still happy to hold it though.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
August 14, 2017

The former Penn West. This is a company he has lost money on. They sold off an incredible amount of their assets. The CEO used to be the CEO of another company that had properties in Albania and was taken over. It would not surprise him if they sell this company, too. He is still happy to hold it though.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 8, 2017

They had to bring their debt down. It was one of two blow outs he had in the last while. He had faith in management. They turned it around. They are going to change the name. (Analysts' target: $2.50).

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They had to bring their debt down. It was one of two blow outs he had in the last while. He had faith in management. They turned it around. They are going to change the name. (Analysts' target: $2.50).

HOLD
HOLD
May 29, 2017

It is no longer at risk of default. It was the largest oil and gas income trust, mature assets. He is just not sure what they have left now that they have sold off so much to pay down the debt. He would not be buying as it is a hold at best.

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It is no longer at risk of default. It was the largest oil and gas income trust, mature assets. He is just not sure what they have left now that they have sold off so much to pay down the debt. He would not be buying as it is a hold at best.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 23, 2017

They had a management upgrade when they brought David French in. Have done a good job of selling off assets and paying down debt. Now they are in a pretty good position. They would be growing production in 2018 X 17%, and are trading at 6X enterprise value to cash flow. However, the average US company in 2018 is going to grow production by 47%, which is 10X this company’s growth rate.

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They had a management upgrade when they brought David French in. Have done a good job of selling off assets and paying down debt. Now they are in a pretty good position. They would be growing production in 2018 X 17%, and are trading at 6X enterprise value to cash flow. However, the average US company in 2018 is going to grow production by 47%, which is 10X this company’s growth rate.

BUY
BUY
April 3, 2017

He lost money on it. He held it. He likes where they are moving now. The likelihood of it being sold is greater than before.

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He lost money on it. He held it. He likes where they are moving now. The likelihood of it being sold is greater than before.

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