A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 7, 2005
potential take-over. Not big on this company
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potential take-over. Not big on this company
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 4, 2005
Financial engineering performance trusts.
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Financial engineering performance trusts.
VAGUE
VAGUE
March 3, 2005
Appears that any deal with Chinese is dead. May get split up. Good current management.
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Appears that any deal with Chinese is dead. May get split up. Good current management.
VAGUE
VAGUE
March 1, 2005
Area play is real. Should do well as long as people stay interested.
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Area play is real. Should do well as long as people stay interested.
BUY
BUY
February 25, 2005
New management with a good track record. About a 12 year reserve life. 85% gas. A good portion of it's production is in the Olds area of Alberta and they had a setback there with processing facility, but thinks that's behind them. Relatively low payout ratio. Debt to cash flow in or around 1X they should be in good shape going forward.
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General Market Comment
February 25, 2005
New management with a good track record. About a 12 year reserve life. 85% gas. A good portion of it's production is in the Olds area of Alberta and they had a setback there with processing facility, but thinks that's behind them. Relatively low payout ratio. Debt to cash flow in or around 1X they should be in good shape going forward.
N/A
N/A
February 25, 2005
Oil/Gold Ratio Chart - When it is rising, oil is outperforming gold and vice versa. Oil has gotten into an area where it's been overbought and there will be a correction. Dow Jones/Gold Ratio Chart - After the peak of gold in the 1980's, the Dow has led all the way and really took off in 1984. Made a huge top and since then has been favouring gold. The chart now shows a consolidation triangle which indicates a break to the downside for Dow. Bond Yield/Gold Ratio Chart - Bonds have been falling in yields. Throughout the 80's and 90's, they have basically traded in a huge range, but in the last year or two has broken out hugely in favour of bonds. It's getting extreme, so at some time, it will correct down and favour gold again. Silver/Gold Ratio Chart - Throughout the late 80's gold was favoured over silver. Silver has now taken over and this is the key commodity to be and his TOP PICKS today are all silver stocks. XAU/Gold Ratio Chart - Should you be long "gold stocks" or "gold" chart. The up trend indicates gold is favoured as happened from about 1994 to 2000/2001. The last few years have seen gold stocks more favourable. They are still in that trend and near the top in the consolidation zone. Gold stocks should continue to be favoured over holding gold, but at some point in time, gold will eventually outperform the stock.
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General Market Comment
February 25, 2005
Oil/Gold Ratio Chart - When it is rising, oil is outperforming gold and vice versa. Oil has gotten into an area where it's been overbought and there will be a correction. Dow Jones/Gold Ratio Chart - After the peak of gold in the 1980's, the Dow has led all the way and really took off in 1984. Made a huge top and since then has been favouring gold. The chart now shows a consolidation triangle which indicates a break to the downside for Dow. Bond Yield/Gold Ratio Chart - Bonds have been falling in yields. Throughout the 80's and 90's, they have basically traded in a huge range, but in the last year or two has broken out hugely in favour of bonds. It's getting extreme, so at some time, it will correct down and favour gold again. Silver/Gold Ratio Chart - Throughout the late 80's gold was favoured over silver. Silver has now taken over and this is the key commodity to be and his TOP PICKS today are all silver stocks. XAU/Gold Ratio Chart - Should you be long "gold stocks" or "gold" chart. The up trend indicates gold is favoured as happened from about 1994 to 2000/2001. The last few years have seen gold stocks more favourable. They are still in that trend and near the top in the consolidation zone. Gold stocks should continue to be favoured over holding gold, but at some point in time, gold will eventually outperform the stock.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 24, 2005
Sold their holdings recently because of a disappointing 1st half and not sure how the 2nd half is going to look.
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General Market Comment
February 24, 2005
Sold their holdings recently because of a disappointing 1st half and not sure how the 2nd half is going to look.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 23, 2005
In the mining sector, they've always had good assets, but have not developed them well or have had poor management. Not a fan. If you're owning for a takeover, it's been for sale for a very long time with very little action, even in this good commodity cycle.
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General Market Comment
February 23, 2005
In the mining sector, they've always had good assets, but have not developed them well or have had poor management. Not a fan. If you're owning for a takeover, it's been for sale for a very long time with very little action, even in this good commodity cycle.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 18, 2005
(A Top Pick Oct 18/04. Up 40%.) Now absorbed by Magna.
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General Market Comment
February 18, 2005
(A Top Pick Oct 18/04. Up 40%.) Now absorbed by Magna.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 18, 2005
Brascan (BNN.LV.A-T) has given one more month for a potential buyer to come forward. Looking at past results, you should assume that there will be no deal. There are better long term opportunities elsewhere.
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General Market Comment
February 18, 2005
Brascan (BNN.LV.A-T) has given one more month for a potential buyer to come forward. Looking at past results, you should assume that there will be no deal. There are better long term opportunities elsewhere.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 16, 2005
Incredibly cheap. Caught up in the bid by Ming Metals and somehow its going to work its way out. Making tons of money.
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General Market Comment
February 16, 2005
Incredibly cheap. Caught up in the bid by Ming Metals and somehow its going to work its way out. Making tons of money.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 15, 2005
Has gone up significantly the last couple of months, so probably not a great time to buy it. Has had 3 quarters were production has fallen or just remained flat.
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General Market Comment
February 15, 2005
Has gone up significantly the last couple of months, so probably not a great time to buy it. Has had 3 quarters were production has fallen or just remained flat.
BUY
BUY
February 14, 2005
Has a big play in the Pembina area. Has a problem with sour gas which has created delays. Moving into the next phase. Has some decent upside ahead of it.
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General Market Comment
February 14, 2005
Has a big play in the Pembina area. Has a problem with sour gas which has created delays. Moving into the next phase. Has some decent upside ahead of it.
HOLD
HOLD
February 4, 2005
Cyclical in nature. Will go through tremendous upswings where cash coming in seems unending and then all of a sudden prices come down. If you are a bull and believe in the extended China demand, then it might be a good hold. If you own, wait for Brascan to sell it.
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General Market Comment
February 4, 2005
Cyclical in nature. Will go through tremendous upswings where cash coming in seems unending and then all of a sudden prices come down. If you are a bull and believe in the extended China demand, then it might be a good hold. If you own, wait for Brascan to sell it.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
February 1, 2005
Had a wonderful upleg in '03 and is now correcting. When the stock pulls back to around $18 and finds support, that would be a good place to buy.
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General Market Comment
February 1, 2005
Had a wonderful upleg in '03 and is now correcting. When the stock pulls back to around $18 and finds support, that would be a good place to buy.
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