A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary

Signal
Opinion
Expert
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 8, 2006
Government of Canada 2029 bonds. Thinks that deflation is more of an issue than inflation and longed maturity bonds will outperform. Caveat. They have a volatility to them and can be up or down 10%.
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Government of Canada 2029 bonds. Thinks that deflation is more of an issue than inflation and longed maturity bonds will outperform. Caveat. They have a volatility to them and can be up or down 10%.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 25, 2006
Government of Canada 10-Year Bonds. Interest rates have peaked and are probably going to weaken, especially as the economy itself has peaked and will weaken. These yield about 4.4%. Gives good diversification in your portfolio. As interest rates come off, you will make a capital gain as well.
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Government of Canada 10-Year Bonds. Interest rates have peaked and are probably going to weaken, especially as the economy itself has peaked and will weaken. These yield about 4.4%. Gives good diversification in your portfolio. As interest rates come off, you will make a capital gain as well.
N/A
N/A
July 19, 2006
Fairly good environment for gold however, the trading pattern of gold for the last 12 months has had an enormous amount of institutional money investing in hard assets (metal) as a hedge against the US$. Copper, zinc and nickel doubled. Gold went up about 55%. Concerned about base metals, because if the economy is moderating it will mean lower demand for base metals. Question; If metals drop, will gold be dragged down as it was dragged up with base metals?The other side of the story is if there is pressure on the US$ and it drops, everything priced in US$ goes up and gold could go up. He believes in the latter.
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Fairly good environment for gold however, the trading pattern of gold for the last 12 months has had an enormous amount of institutional money investing in hard assets (metal) as a hedge against the US$. Copper, zinc and nickel doubled. Gold went up about 55%. Concerned about base metals, because if the economy is moderating it will mean lower demand for base metals. Question; If metals drop, will gold be dragged down as it was dragged up with base metals?The other side of the story is if there is pressure on the US$ and it drops, everything priced in US$ goes up and gold could go up. He believes in the latter.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 7, 2006
(A Top Pick on Apr 4/06 was Government of Canada 5.75% Bond 2029. This is again a Top Pick.)
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(A Top Pick on Apr 4/06 was Government of Canada 5.75% Bond 2029. This is again a Top Pick.)
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N/A
July 6, 2006
Tonight's talk was on hedge "Funds" which are not traded on the North Anerican Exchanges, so there are no stocks to show. Sorry!
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Tonight's talk was on hedge "Funds" which are not traded on the North Anerican Exchanges, so there are no stocks to show. Sorry!
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 15, 2006
His market risk and sector risk models are both negative. Went back to the bull market in commodities in the late 70’s and looked at what happened through that period. There were a number of significant corrections, similar to the ones that we've been going through in the last month. You have to be prepared for 25/50% corrections in the biggest stocks. It may be that the bull market continues and we go on to higher highs as it did back then. If we continue to be in a secular bull market, the stocks should come back into the area were they should hold and then should be able to rally from there. You have to decide if you want to bet that this is a bottom or see if it holds and be prepared to pay a little higher price.
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His market risk and sector risk models are both negative. Went back to the bull market in commodities in the late 70’s and looked at what happened through that period. There were a number of significant corrections, similar to the ones that we've been going through in the last month. You have to be prepared for 25/50% corrections in the biggest stocks. It may be that the bull market continues and we go on to higher highs as it did back then. If we continue to be in a secular bull market, the stocks should come back into the area were they should hold and then should be able to rally from there. You have to decide if you want to bet that this is a bottom or see if it holds and be prepared to pay a little higher price.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
June 14, 2006
Chose a 2029 5.75% Canada Bond as his 3rd Top Pick. Has had an equity like return. Believes that real rates are dropping. Expects there will be a slowdown or recession in the US and that will give bonds a tremendous bid.
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Chose a 2029 5.75% Canada Bond as his 3rd Top Pick. Has had an equity like return. Believes that real rates are dropping. Expects there will be a slowdown or recession in the US and that will give bonds a tremendous bid.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 18, 2006
Royal Bank of Scotland is not listed on North American exchanges. Trades at 10 X earnings. 4.5% yield. 18% ROE. Have announced they are going to buyback shares.
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Royal Bank of Scotland is not listed on North American exchanges. Trades at 10 X earnings. 4.5% yield. 18% ROE. Have announced they are going to buyback shares.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 6, 2006
MacQuarie Bank is an Australian bank. The symbol is MQBKY-N, but is not registered under globeinvestor.com but can be purchased from the Sydney Exchange. Gives exposure to the Australian economy where the market has done nothing for the last 2 years but is starting to wake up. Involved in infrastructure deals.
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MacQuarie Bank is an Australian bank. The symbol is MQBKY-N, but is not registered under globeinvestor.com but can be purchased from the Sydney Exchange. Gives exposure to the Australian economy where the market has done nothing for the last 2 years but is starting to wake up. Involved in infrastructure deals.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 4, 2006
Paul's 3 Top Picks include Royal Bank Of Scotland which is not listed on the North American exchanges, REIT Bonds and a Government of Canada 5.75% Bond 2029.
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Paul's 3 Top Picks include Royal Bank Of Scotland which is not listed on the North American exchanges, REIT Bonds and a Government of Canada 5.75% Bond 2029.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 3, 2006
Is bullish on silver stocks and is waiting for the ETF on them.
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Is bullish on silver stocks and is waiting for the ETF on them.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 12, 2006
He is bullish on Oil and gas because of the depletion of oil and exploration. He predicts that oil prices will be at the $50 to $60 level, but there will be short term volatility where the prices could go from $50 to $125. He believes oil production has peaked. He also said we will never run out of oil, but the price of oil will increase as the supply decreases. Boom times in Canada, it will be a large run because of the oil sands and reserves. He believes that the Canadian based oil sands will be the largest in the world. For natural gas his forcast will see gas around $7 to $10. Again we could see short term volatility from a day to a week depending on circumstances (eg, hurricanes) Weather was mild in January so now we have extra gas in storage. This time of year prices go down as the heating season comes to the end. It's a buying opportunity for natural gas. Service Sector- He believes the service sector represents an attractive sector to invest in for the long term. As we go after lower and lower grades of gas, we are going to have continually increasing inputs of technology, equipment, investment, manpower per barrel and cubic feet recovered. So there is a real basis of service income and profitability to occur. His investments are mostly weighted to the energy service sector.
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He is bullish on Oil and gas because of the depletion of oil and exploration. He predicts that oil prices will be at the $50 to $60 level, but there will be short term volatility where the prices could go from $50 to $125. He believes oil production has peaked. He also said we will never run out of oil, but the price of oil will increase as the supply decreases. Boom times in Canada, it will be a large run because of the oil sands and reserves. He believes that the Canadian based oil sands will be the largest in the world. For natural gas his forcast will see gas around $7 to $10. Again we could see short term volatility from a day to a week depending on circumstances (eg, hurricanes) Weather was mild in January so now we have extra gas in storage. This time of year prices go down as the heating season comes to the end. It's a buying opportunity for natural gas. Service Sector- He believes the service sector represents an attractive sector to invest in for the long term. As we go after lower and lower grades of gas, we are going to have continually increasing inputs of technology, equipment, investment, manpower per barrel and cubic feet recovered. So there is a real basis of service income and profitability to occur. His investments are mostly weighted to the energy service sector.
BUY
BUY
March 11, 2006
White Rock is a very new REIT. They have 220 million in assets, 19 holdings. Stable income flow , a little too much debt. 78% of their leases are government. Good stable base with long term leases with the government, in good buildings and capital cities.
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White Rock is a very new REIT. They have 220 million in assets, 19 holdings. Stable income flow , a little too much debt. 78% of their leases are government. Good stable base with long term leases with the government, in good buildings and capital cities.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 7, 2006
Feels that the US has lived beyond their means. They have debt levels in every area from consumer, municipal to state government to federal government. This has been sustained, by the great increase in home prices and the great drop in interest rates, now it's coming home to roost. The home market and interest drops have peaked. Add in the "ageing crisis" and the US governments lack of preparation. Feels that inflation is also picking up, and that even though the rates are reported at 1% or 2% he doesn't know anything that hasn't gone up more then that. He gave an example of how the numbers are fudged. Say they use steak as their consumer index number, and steak prices go up too much. They make the assumption that you aren't going to buy it anymore and switch to chop beef, they switch steak out of the consumer price index for chop meat. They've kept the prices down by taking things out that increase a lot. Further on, he says that going off the gold standard was a mistake, because it allowed politicians to not have to be responsible by only printing enough money that could be backed by the gold. There as been talk about going back, but there isn't enough gold in the world to cover the US debt.
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Feels that the US has lived beyond their means. They have debt levels in every area from consumer, municipal to state government to federal government. This has been sustained, by the great increase in home prices and the great drop in interest rates, now it's coming home to roost. The home market and interest drops have peaked. Add in the "ageing crisis" and the US governments lack of preparation. Feels that inflation is also picking up, and that even though the rates are reported at 1% or 2% he doesn't know anything that hasn't gone up more then that. He gave an example of how the numbers are fudged. Say they use steak as their consumer index number, and steak prices go up too much. They make the assumption that you aren't going to buy it anymore and switch to chop beef, they switch steak out of the consumer price index for chop meat. They've kept the prices down by taking things out that increase a lot. Further on, he says that going off the gold standard was a mistake, because it allowed politicians to not have to be responsible by only printing enough money that could be backed by the gold. There as been talk about going back, but there isn't enough gold in the world to cover the US debt.
BUY
BUY
March 7, 2006
Junior golds as a group are very undervalued, which he sees as an indication that it's not speculative yet.
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Junior golds as a group are very undervalued, which he sees as an indication that it's not speculative yet.
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