A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 5, 2008
ETFs are great because you can get the broad exposure to the sector. What looks interesting to him now are the 1) non-durable consumer stocks 2) biotech and pharmaceuticals 3) software (specifically companies that have recurring revenue) and 4) rails.
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ETFs are great because you can get the broad exposure to the sector. What looks interesting to him now are the 1) non-durable consumer stocks 2) biotech and pharmaceuticals 3) software (specifically companies that have recurring revenue) and 4) rails.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 5, 2008
Cdn$: Feels that $0.98 is the base and probably $1.02 for the maximum for this year. Longer term $.98 to $1.05.
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Cdn$: Feels that $0.98 is the base and probably $1.02 for the maximum for this year. Longer term $.98 to $1.05.
WAIT
WAIT
August 5, 2008
Banks: Looking out 3 years, bank stocks will be very much higher and the yield is going to be very attractive. There was a recent bounce in the US financials, which has rubbed off on the Canadian banks. He still feels there are a lot of financial worries so the bank debacle is not over yet.
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Banks: Looking out 3 years, bank stocks will be very much higher and the yield is going to be very attractive. There was a recent bounce in the US financials, which has rubbed off on the Canadian banks. He still feels there are a lot of financial worries so the bank debacle is not over yet.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 1, 2008
Oil Income Trusts: Revenues have picked up substantially and they have increased payouts. On a long-term basis, he likes Baytex Energy (BTE.UN-T), Freehold Royalty (FRU.UN-T), NAL Oil & Gas (NAE.UN-T). Arc Energy (AET.UN-T) is a little expensive but has one of the best managements. In both the Montney and Bakken areas.
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Oil Income Trusts: Revenues have picked up substantially and they have increased payouts. On a long-term basis, he likes Baytex Energy (BTE.UN-T), Freehold Royalty (FRU.UN-T), NAL Oil & Gas (NAE.UN-T). Arc Energy (AET.UN-T) is a little expensive but has one of the best managements. In both the Montney and Bakken areas.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 31, 2008

Gold: One would have thought it would be going up in this environment. He thinks the US$ will still go down. Longer term, gold is a great place to be.

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Gold: One would have thought it would be going up in this environment. He thinks the US$ will still go down. Longer term, gold is a great place to be.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 31, 2008

Refineries: This is an area that could have the greatest leverage going forward. Crack spreads are about as low as they have ever been due to high oil prices. Now that oil has dropped, the margins will start to move back out. Valero Energy (VLO-N) would be his choice.

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Refineries: This is an area that could have the greatest leverage going forward. Crack spreads are about as low as they have ever been due to high oil prices. Now that oil has dropped, the margins will start to move back out. Valero Energy (VLO-N) would be his choice.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2008
Coal Plays: With acquisition of Royal Utilities Income Fund Sherritt (S-T) is more coal than it used to be. Other pure plays would be Grand Cache (GCE-T) or Western Canadian (WTN-T), which are the small ends of small caps. These 2 would be raising your risk quite a bit because if coal pulls back, they will drop quite a bit.
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Coal Plays: With acquisition of Royal Utilities Income Fund Sherritt (S-T) is more coal than it used to be. Other pure plays would be Grand Cache (GCE-T) or Western Canadian (WTN-T), which are the small ends of small caps. These 2 would be raising your risk quite a bit because if coal pulls back, they will drop quite a bit.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 29, 2008
European Utilities: Can be divided into 2 categories. Energy market is deregulated so with higher energy costs they have higher power costs. There is also the regulated utility, which is the more defensive one. The utility sector is providing the traditional defensive haven. There are a lot that would yield 4% to 5%.
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European Utilities: Can be divided into 2 categories. Energy market is deregulated so with higher energy costs they have higher power costs. There is also the regulated utility, which is the more defensive one. The utility sector is providing the traditional defensive haven. There are a lot that would yield 4% to 5%.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 29, 2008
Australian Banks: Not bottoming as yet. 2 of them have issued profit warnings in the last few days. There has been a bit of a housing bubble in Australia, interest rates have gone up and housing prices are starting to roll over. Yields are attractive, but not sure they are safe.
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Australian Banks: Not bottoming as yet. 2 of them have issued profit warnings in the last few days. There has been a bit of a housing bubble in Australia, interest rates have gone up and housing prices are starting to roll over. Yields are attractive, but not sure they are safe.
HOLD
HOLD
July 29, 2008
British Gas: Probably one of the highest quality oil/gas companies in Europe. Has the fastest growth rate of all the major European energy companies. Very much focused on gas and LNG. Good long-term holding with strong fundamentals.
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British Gas: Probably one of the highest quality oil/gas companies in Europe. Has the fastest growth rate of all the major European energy companies. Very much focused on gas and LNG. Good long-term holding with strong fundamentals.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 28, 2008
Markets: What we have seen over the last 3 weeks is a little bit of a head fake. Fundamentals are not quite there yet. Things will get worse for the next couple of months. Look for a market bottom late August or early September and would be a good time to start moving into the market.
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Markets: What we have seen over the last 3 weeks is a little bit of a head fake. Fundamentals are not quite there yet. Things will get worse for the next couple of months. Look for a market bottom late August or early September and would be a good time to start moving into the market.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 28, 2008
What oil company to own? ETFs are an absolutely brilliant way of playing the market if you don't know what company to own. Low costs.
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What oil company to own? ETFs are an absolutely brilliant way of playing the market if you don't know what company to own. Low costs.
HOLD
HOLD
July 25, 2008
Canadian Banks: If you compare these with the global situation, they are good businesses. Profitability over the last few years has been due to the elevated credit. As a credit unwinds, the profitability will not be there.
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Canadian Banks: If you compare these with the global situation, they are good businesses. Profitability over the last few years has been due to the elevated credit. As a credit unwinds, the profitability will not be there.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 25, 2008
Healthcare & Diagnostics Area: With health care, you have to be very specific. US$ will continue to drop. The ability of the US to pay concerns him. He would avoid the drug makers and focus on the diagnostics. He would play this through GE (GE-N).
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Healthcare & Diagnostics Area: With health care, you have to be very specific. US$ will continue to drop. The ability of the US to pay concerns him. He would avoid the drug makers and focus on the diagnostics. He would play this through GE (GE-N).
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 25, 2008
Principal Protected Notes: Good vehicle. Offers a very good way to participate in specific investments. Note of caution. The issuer protects it. In other words, if you have a note by a company that went broke, your note would be worth zero.
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Principal Protected Notes: Good vehicle. Offers a very good way to participate in specific investments. Note of caution. The issuer protects it. In other words, if you have a note by a company that went broke, your note would be worth zero.
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