A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 18, 2008
Copper: Traditionally it has always been housing related. A little bit of reason to have some concerns. Wouldn’t be aggressive on copper in the short term. There’s time yet.
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General Market Comment
August 18, 2008
Copper: Traditionally it has always been housing related. A little bit of reason to have some concerns. Wouldn’t be aggressive on copper in the short term. There’s time yet.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 18, 2008
Silver: For the most part this acts with gold. Thinks there is an oversold component here and there should be a bounce, but Buy a low cost producer such as Silver Wheaton (SLW-T).
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General Market Comment
August 18, 2008
Silver: For the most part this acts with gold. Thinks there is an oversold component here and there should be a bounce, but Buy a low cost producer such as Silver Wheaton (SLW-T).
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 15, 2008
Market: Was more optimistic on gold than he should have been. It held at $850-$875 and every sign suggested that it was going higher. Got hit with profit taking. Should have some support around $770. Market is close to starting a new up-leg. A little financials, some utilities, industrials, US health care, US consumer discretionary will lead the market and energy will follow in about 1 month and gold after another 6 weeks.
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General Market Comment
August 15, 2008
Market: Was more optimistic on gold than he should have been. It held at $850-$875 and every sign suggested that it was going higher. Got hit with profit taking. Should have some support around $770. Market is close to starting a new up-leg. A little financials, some utilities, industrials, US health care, US consumer discretionary will lead the market and energy will follow in about 1 month and gold after another 6 weeks.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 14, 2008
Oil: Fairly comfortable to wear it has pulled back. At $140 or more, it was speculation that was driving it. At $120 plus or minus $15 is a pretty good range.
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General Market Comment
August 14, 2008
Oil: Fairly comfortable to wear it has pulled back. At $140 or more, it was speculation that was driving it. At $120 plus or minus $15 is a pretty good range.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 14, 2008
Oil Stocks: Market is not pricing in $100 oil. It takes a long time for the companies to catch up, as analysts don't feel oil can stay at the high levels. Oil will continue to be in high demand.
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General Market Comment
August 14, 2008
Oil Stocks: Market is not pricing in $100 oil. It takes a long time for the companies to catch up, as analysts don't feel oil can stay at the high levels. Oil will continue to be in high demand.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 12, 2008
Energy: Too early to know if the energy cycle is over yet. Both oil and natural gas were going up in parabolic curves, which is unsustainable and they are now correcting. He is somewhat cautious here.
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General Market Comment
August 12, 2008
Energy: Too early to know if the energy cycle is over yet. Both oil and natural gas were going up in parabolic curves, which is unsustainable and they are now correcting. He is somewhat cautious here.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 11, 2008
This is like a wholesale sell off in the gold sector. People are moving to the financials. This is a big sell off. For those who are patient, this could be a very attractive entry point. Doesn’t think gold can come down much more and should edge up, but the question is will stocks follow. It’s very related to the US$. When it’s strong, gold tends to be weak.
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General Market Comment
August 11, 2008
This is like a wholesale sell off in the gold sector. People are moving to the financials. This is a big sell off. For those who are patient, this could be a very attractive entry point. Doesn’t think gold can come down much more and should edge up, but the question is will stocks follow. It’s very related to the US$. When it’s strong, gold tends to be weak.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 8, 2008
Gold: Has always found gold bullion a little difficult to make a forecast on. The breakdown of gold stocks has surprised him. His concern is that gold stocks have more down side than base metals, oil/gas or commodities.
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Gold: Has always found gold bullion a little difficult to make a forecast on. The breakdown of gold stocks has surprised him. His concern is that gold stocks have more down side than base metals, oil/gas or commodities.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 5, 2008
ETFs are great because you can get the broad exposure to the sector. What looks interesting to him now are the 1) non-durable consumer stocks 2) biotech and pharmaceuticals 3) software (specifically companies that have recurring revenue) and 4) rails.
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ETFs are great because you can get the broad exposure to the sector. What looks interesting to him now are the 1) non-durable consumer stocks 2) biotech and pharmaceuticals 3) software (specifically companies that have recurring revenue) and 4) rails.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 5, 2008
Cdn$: Feels that $0.98 is the base and probably $1.02 for the maximum for this year. Longer term $.98 to $1.05.
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Cdn$: Feels that $0.98 is the base and probably $1.02 for the maximum for this year. Longer term $.98 to $1.05.
WAIT
WAIT
August 5, 2008
Banks: Looking out 3 years, bank stocks will be very much higher and the yield is going to be very attractive. There was a recent bounce in the US financials, which has rubbed off on the Canadian banks. He still feels there are a lot of financial worries so the bank debacle is not over yet.
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Banks: Looking out 3 years, bank stocks will be very much higher and the yield is going to be very attractive. There was a recent bounce in the US financials, which has rubbed off on the Canadian banks. He still feels there are a lot of financial worries so the bank debacle is not over yet.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 1, 2008
Oil Income Trusts: Revenues have picked up substantially and they have increased payouts. On a long-term basis, he likes Baytex Energy (BTE.UN-T), Freehold Royalty (FRU.UN-T), NAL Oil & Gas (NAE.UN-T). Arc Energy (AET.UN-T) is a little expensive but has one of the best managements. In both the Montney and Bakken areas.
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Oil Income Trusts: Revenues have picked up substantially and they have increased payouts. On a long-term basis, he likes Baytex Energy (BTE.UN-T), Freehold Royalty (FRU.UN-T), NAL Oil & Gas (NAE.UN-T). Arc Energy (AET.UN-T) is a little expensive but has one of the best managements. In both the Montney and Bakken areas.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 31, 2008

Gold: One would have thought it would be going up in this environment. He thinks the US$ will still go down. Longer term, gold is a great place to be.

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Gold: One would have thought it would be going up in this environment. He thinks the US$ will still go down. Longer term, gold is a great place to be.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 31, 2008

Refineries: This is an area that could have the greatest leverage going forward. Crack spreads are about as low as they have ever been due to high oil prices. Now that oil has dropped, the margins will start to move back out. Valero Energy (VLO-N) would be his choice.

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Refineries: This is an area that could have the greatest leverage going forward. Crack spreads are about as low as they have ever been due to high oil prices. Now that oil has dropped, the margins will start to move back out. Valero Energy (VLO-N) would be his choice.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2008
Coal Plays: With acquisition of Royal Utilities Income Fund Sherritt (S-T) is more coal than it used to be. Other pure plays would be Grand Cache (GCE-T) or Western Canadian (WTN-T), which are the small ends of small caps. These 2 would be raising your risk quite a bit because if coal pulls back, they will drop quite a bit.
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Coal Plays: With acquisition of Royal Utilities Income Fund Sherritt (S-T) is more coal than it used to be. Other pure plays would be Grand Cache (GCE-T) or Western Canadian (WTN-T), which are the small ends of small caps. These 2 would be raising your risk quite a bit because if coal pulls back, they will drop quite a bit.
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