A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Signal
Opinion
Expert
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December 23, 2019
Market. We are extended in the short term. That is to be expected because we had a pretty good run. Put/Calls are showing complacency. We could expect a 1-5% correction, but how the pause manifests itself is always unique. It is a combination of price and time. The S&P has a nice trend, but we are at the top end of the channel it is in. The US$ is doing what it is expected to do. It is a pro-cyclical move underpinned by commodities. The bit of inflation we are getting is a good thing.
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General Market Comment
December 23, 2019
Market. We are extended in the short term. That is to be expected because we had a pretty good run. Put/Calls are showing complacency. We could expect a 1-5% correction, but how the pause manifests itself is always unique. It is a combination of price and time. The S&P has a nice trend, but we are at the top end of the channel it is in. The US$ is doing what it is expected to do. It is a pro-cyclical move underpinned by commodities. The bit of inflation we are getting is a good thing.
BUY
BUY
December 23, 2019
TSX. If you go back to 2007/8, we are up only about 2000 points. The US is a more growth oriented market. The trend we are seeing now, he thinks, is for real.
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General Market Comment
December 23, 2019
TSX. If you go back to 2007/8, we are up only about 2000 points. The US is a more growth oriented market. The trend we are seeing now, he thinks, is for real.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 23, 2019
Market Outlook He has been buying less and selling more. For the portfolio, he has dropped holdings from 22 down to 12 -- not buying anything this year. He is playing defense by taking money off the table. He is definitely looking to sell.
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General Market Comment
December 23, 2019
Market Outlook He has been buying less and selling more. For the portfolio, he has dropped holdings from 22 down to 12 -- not buying anything this year. He is playing defense by taking money off the table. He is definitely looking to sell.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 23, 2019
Canadian Banks He owns Laurentian bank and is holding it for the dividends. In a recession, he expects the Canadian banking sector will get killed. He would likely move to holding the preferreds as he expects a recession by 2021 as it will be safer. You might do better looking into European banks that could create better capital appreciation and dividends. Taking some money off the table, early in the New Year, would make sense. He would be cautious about shorting any Canadian banks as you have to cover the dividends.
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General Market Comment
December 23, 2019
Canadian Banks He owns Laurentian bank and is holding it for the dividends. In a recession, he expects the Canadian banking sector will get killed. He would likely move to holding the preferreds as he expects a recession by 2021 as it will be safer. You might do better looking into European banks that could create better capital appreciation and dividends. Taking some money off the table, early in the New Year, would make sense. He would be cautious about shorting any Canadian banks as you have to cover the dividends.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 23, 2019
Mid-cap O&G? He is looking at a lot of mid-cap energy stocks right now. He is not racing to buy any right now as many have high levels of debt. Natural gas is undervalued, he thinks, but thinks fracing in the US could be a wildcard. Looking at energy now is a smart thing to do.
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General Market Comment
December 23, 2019
Mid-cap O&G? He is looking at a lot of mid-cap energy stocks right now. He is not racing to buy any right now as many have high levels of debt. Natural gas is undervalued, he thinks, but thinks fracing in the US could be a wildcard. Looking at energy now is a smart thing to do.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 23, 2019
CDN dollar? Neither Canada nor the US has control over their deficits. Unemployment is at super low levels and the economies are doing well -- this is the time they should be paying down debt.
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General Market Comment
December 23, 2019
CDN dollar? Neither Canada nor the US has control over their deficits. Unemployment is at super low levels and the economies are doing well -- this is the time they should be paying down debt.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 20, 2019
Market Outlook Last year the year end market was much different when the Fed Reserve was too much into the tightening camp. Since then they have eased three times this year and the stock market has responded. He thinks markets will continue to ebb and flow and every ounce of good news has to have a response. You have to step up that much more to keep momentum going. It has been a very good decade, but was not as good as the 80's, 90's or 50's. Stability has defined this market, with low volatility. This can lead to being complacent. He thinks the economy may go into a low growth environment, which may cause rotation into value based companies based on more reasonable P/E multiples.
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General Market Comment
December 20, 2019
Market Outlook Last year the year end market was much different when the Fed Reserve was too much into the tightening camp. Since then they have eased three times this year and the stock market has responded. He thinks markets will continue to ebb and flow and every ounce of good news has to have a response. You have to step up that much more to keep momentum going. It has been a very good decade, but was not as good as the 80's, 90's or 50's. Stability has defined this market, with low volatility. This can lead to being complacent. He thinks the economy may go into a low growth environment, which may cause rotation into value based companies based on more reasonable P/E multiples.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 20, 2019
Housing & Recessions US Housing Starts have recovered back to 1.3 million new starts -- more normal levels. Housing start growth means we are not yet getting close to a recession as a decline in starts has been a good predictor of recessions.
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General Market Comment
December 20, 2019
Housing & Recessions US Housing Starts have recovered back to 1.3 million new starts -- more normal levels. Housing start growth means we are not yet getting close to a recession as a decline in starts has been a good predictor of recessions.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 20, 2019
There’s nothing that’s holding the markets back. Some of the volume is down, so he’s sitting on the sidelines though. It’s rare to have rising returns back to back. He’s neutral right now by reducing equities and going into fixed income.
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General Market Comment
December 20, 2019
There’s nothing that’s holding the markets back. Some of the volume is down, so he’s sitting on the sidelines though. It’s rare to have rising returns back to back. He’s neutral right now by reducing equities and going into fixed income.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 20, 2019
Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal was tepid with little details. There’s finally results of what the trade war has done. The valuations are still pretty high. He doesn’t believe inflation has gone away.
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General Market Comment
December 20, 2019
Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal was tepid with little details. There’s finally results of what the trade war has done. The valuations are still pretty high. He doesn’t believe inflation has gone away.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 20, 2019
He was expecting to see more tax-loss selling in energy stocks. There have been some significant up trends however. On the earning side, we have to watch the price of oil. If we hit $70 for oil, energy stocks may do very well.
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General Market Comment
December 20, 2019
He was expecting to see more tax-loss selling in energy stocks. There have been some significant up trends however. On the earning side, we have to watch the price of oil. If we hit $70 for oil, energy stocks may do very well.
N/A
N/A
December 19, 2019
Market. We have seen a massive disconnect between oil and oil stocks. Oil rallied this year but you just starting to see oil stocks lift. The 'truce' between China and the US has taken the demand worry off the table. Investors on the sidelines thinking oil might be a little bit wobbly, last Friday saw the end of tax loss selling was the green light to go back into oil. The mid-cap space was the most abandoned. The real opportunity today is those mid-cap Canadian oil stocks. He is optimistic for 2020.
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General Market Comment
December 19, 2019
Market. We have seen a massive disconnect between oil and oil stocks. Oil rallied this year but you just starting to see oil stocks lift. The 'truce' between China and the US has taken the demand worry off the table. Investors on the sidelines thinking oil might be a little bit wobbly, last Friday saw the end of tax loss selling was the green light to go back into oil. The mid-cap space was the most abandoned. The real opportunity today is those mid-cap Canadian oil stocks. He is optimistic for 2020.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 19, 2019
Brexit's influence on the 2020 U.S. election The Tories' Johnson won in part because voters were scared of Labour's strong left-wing party. The U.S. needs a leader in the middle. The UK election may influence the Democrats' platform.
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General Market Comment
December 19, 2019
Brexit's influence on the 2020 U.S. election The Tories' Johnson won in part because voters were scared of Labour's strong left-wing party. The U.S. needs a leader in the middle. The UK election may influence the Democrats' platform.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 19, 2019
Too much to hold 4 Canadian banks, consisting of 20% of his portfolio? He's long term. Nothing wrong with this. Banks do incredibly well in Canada, generating 12-15% ROE long term and always raise their dividends. They're well-regulated and diversified across North America.
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General Market Comment
December 19, 2019
Too much to hold 4 Canadian banks, consisting of 20% of his portfolio? He's long term. Nothing wrong with this. Banks do incredibly well in Canada, generating 12-15% ROE long term and always raise their dividends. They're well-regulated and diversified across North America.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 18, 2019
Market Outlook The market appears to be changing with money coming back into value stocks, not just growth and technology. He thinks there is still lots of money sitting on the sidelines that can fuel the market higher. Yield curve inversions have for the most part returned to normal -- even negative bond yields in Europe are starting to end. He thinks government and personal debt will be a problem, but highly levered corporate debt will likely be the first issues. He has been buying high quality (P2) preferred shares.
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General Market Comment
December 18, 2019
Market Outlook The market appears to be changing with money coming back into value stocks, not just growth and technology. He thinks there is still lots of money sitting on the sidelines that can fuel the market higher. Yield curve inversions have for the most part returned to normal -- even negative bond yields in Europe are starting to end. He thinks government and personal debt will be a problem, but highly levered corporate debt will likely be the first issues. He has been buying high quality (P2) preferred shares.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 18, 2019
Not a fan of the infrastructure space, but at least SNC Lavalin today has put this fraud scandal behind them (by pleading guilty....He's not bullish emerging markets, particularly India which may be entering a real estate crisis; Chinese growth keeps slower; and Latin America is not in great shape...The rest of 2019 will be calm--no interest rate hikes, no hawkish statements from banks, unless Trump says something about the China-US trade deal. We'll end 2019 on a positive note.
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General Market Comment
December 18, 2019
Not a fan of the infrastructure space, but at least SNC Lavalin today has put this fraud scandal behind them (by pleading guilty....He's not bullish emerging markets, particularly India which may be entering a real estate crisis; Chinese growth keeps slower; and Latin America is not in great shape...The rest of 2019 will be calm--no interest rate hikes, no hawkish statements from banks, unless Trump says something about the China-US trade deal. We'll end 2019 on a positive note.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 18, 2019
China He doesn't own Chinese stocks, because few are world-class and there's no investor protection. China's economy is starting to struggle and is seeing slower growth. He doesn't invest in EM because of corruption and lack of transparency.
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General Market Comment
December 18, 2019
China He doesn't own Chinese stocks, because few are world-class and there's no investor protection. China's economy is starting to struggle and is seeing slower growth. He doesn't invest in EM because of corruption and lack of transparency.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 18, 2019
Outlook for Japan The Japanese small-cap market has been rallying a lot. A new law has forced Japanese to raise dividends and share buybacks, and Japanese companies now pay a higher yield than the S&P for the first time ever. Private equity.
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General Market Comment
December 18, 2019
Outlook for Japan The Japanese small-cap market has been rallying a lot. A new law has forced Japanese to raise dividends and share buybacks, and Japanese companies now pay a higher yield than the S&P for the first time ever. Private equity.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 17, 2019
Orphan stocks that aren't part of the big index are forgotten and mispriced--which is a buying opportunity. A lot of people are buying ETFs and other passive investing; active managers underperform (historically). Fundamental investing is here to stay and will enjoy a comeback....M&A will continue, given a lot of capital in the private equity space.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2019
Orphan stocks that aren't part of the big index are forgotten and mispriced--which is a buying opportunity. A lot of people are buying ETFs and other passive investing; active managers underperform (historically). Fundamental investing is here to stay and will enjoy a comeback....M&A will continue, given a lot of capital in the private equity space.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 17, 2019
Tech sector It's been the best performing sector in recent years in Canada and America. When interest rates are low, tech stocks make a lot of sense. You can discount them for 10-20 years when the recurring revenue is here to stay. It's difficult to call the outlooks of giants Google and Amazon, though they've done a tremendous job to grow, though he doesn't see real profitability. He'd rather focus on small/midcap tech companies that are massively underpriced and have tremendous valuation upside--they could be taken out--and easier to predict.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2019
Tech sector It's been the best performing sector in recent years in Canada and America. When interest rates are low, tech stocks make a lot of sense. You can discount them for 10-20 years when the recurring revenue is here to stay. It's difficult to call the outlooks of giants Google and Amazon, though they've done a tremendous job to grow, though he doesn't see real profitability. He'd rather focus on small/midcap tech companies that are massively underpriced and have tremendous valuation upside--they could be taken out--and easier to predict.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 17, 2019
The US has been the best house on the street for 10 years, but with this rally the US is underperforming. Several tailwinds right after the recession (cheap currency, aggressive liquidity) have made the American markets and dollar expensive. Since the recession, we still carry that trauma, so there's a lot of skittishness out there. So, when the market panics, bond yields fall, but the prevents investor euphoria--and that's why he feels we are not in a bubble. US investors have done well since the recession, but not in Europe as well as Asia, Latin America and elsewhere. Trade wars have fulled full-on reflation.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2019
The US has been the best house on the street for 10 years, but with this rally the US is underperforming. Several tailwinds right after the recession (cheap currency, aggressive liquidity) have made the American markets and dollar expensive. Since the recession, we still carry that trauma, so there's a lot of skittishness out there. So, when the market panics, bond yields fall, but the prevents investor euphoria--and that's why he feels we are not in a bubble. US investors have done well since the recession, but not in Europe as well as Asia, Latin America and elsewhere. Trade wars have fulled full-on reflation.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 17, 2019
2020 should be good for world markets now that the China-US trade war has calmed and Brexit looks settled. What geographies to invest in and how much? Yes, a lot of political angst has been cleared, but he'd rather look at fundamentals. For 2020, he'd be underweight US, market weight Canada, overweight Europe and maximum overweight in emerging markets.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2019
2020 should be good for world markets now that the China-US trade war has calmed and Brexit looks settled. What geographies to invest in and how much? Yes, a lot of political angst has been cleared, but he'd rather look at fundamentals. For 2020, he'd be underweight US, market weight Canada, overweight Europe and maximum overweight in emerging markets.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 17, 2019
An ETF paying income for a senior Hard to identify one ETF. The biggest challenge for him is generating for clients yield in a low-interest rate time. The solution is moving into dividend-paying stocks, but these are not bond proxies.
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General Market Comment
December 17, 2019
An ETF paying income for a senior Hard to identify one ETF. The biggest challenge for him is generating for clients yield in a low-interest rate time. The solution is moving into dividend-paying stocks, but these are not bond proxies.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 16, 2019
Breaking news: Boeing is halting production of the 737 Max: Not a huge surprise. They alluded to it before. It will have financial impact. Their supply chain is backing up, so this may slow it down. This stoppage has never happened before that he knows of. To get people confident to fly a plane that has crashed will take a lot to get that back. Airlines will be hit and will want some sort of compensation from Boeing. During this year, Boeing stock remains positive, because there's a duopoly, but he still wouldn't buy Boeing. If there was more competition, Boeing would be crushed. They show some arrogance, too....Cineworld bought Cineplex today: it's a good deal for both companies. He sold Cineplex today. Cineplex's balance sheet was getting levered up and their strategy didn't work by paying a high dividend buy investing in various businesses. Now, under Cineworld, their position is stronger; the deal with be accretive, given them more of a global presence. He doesn't think Cineworld will pay a dividend.
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General Market Comment
December 16, 2019
Breaking news: Boeing is halting production of the 737 Max: Not a huge surprise. They alluded to it before. It will have financial impact. Their supply chain is backing up, so this may slow it down. This stoppage has never happened before that he knows of. To get people confident to fly a plane that has crashed will take a lot to get that back. Airlines will be hit and will want some sort of compensation from Boeing. During this year, Boeing stock remains positive, because there's a duopoly, but he still wouldn't buy Boeing. If there was more competition, Boeing would be crushed. They show some arrogance, too....Cineworld bought Cineplex today: it's a good deal for both companies. He sold Cineplex today. Cineplex's balance sheet was getting levered up and their strategy didn't work by paying a high dividend buy investing in various businesses. Now, under Cineworld, their position is stronger; the deal with be accretive, given them more of a global presence. He doesn't think Cineworld will pay a dividend.
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December 16, 2019
Market. Central bankers have gotten used to just throwing money at the problem and we forget how unusual this is. It used to be in the US that the economy was used to improve financial assets and now it is financial assets that are being used to improve the economy. Share prices are now rising faster than earnings and revenues. You are seeing valuation inflation. The US FED is planning on buying half a billion dollars in bonds by mid-January to put them into record territory.
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General Market Comment
December 16, 2019
Market. Central bankers have gotten used to just throwing money at the problem and we forget how unusual this is. It used to be in the US that the economy was used to improve financial assets and now it is financial assets that are being used to improve the economy. Share prices are now rising faster than earnings and revenues. You are seeing valuation inflation. The US FED is planning on buying half a billion dollars in bonds by mid-January to put them into record territory.
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N/A
December 16, 2019
[Today's show was pre-empted by breaking news]
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General Market Comment
December 16, 2019
[Today's show was pre-empted by breaking news]
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 13, 2019
Market Outlook There is some kind of agreement on the US-China trade issues, but there is nothing in writing yet. She thinks the market had already factored this in and is now selling on news. Even an easing of tariffs would be positive for China and business confidence globally would pick up. She would like to see companies increase spending to expand capacity. Her top picks are avoiding deep cyclical names. She expects to see US economic growth to slow modestly, but a recession will be avoided. Even in Canada there is a shortage of skilled workers, causing he to be weary of wage inflation.
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General Market Comment
December 13, 2019
Market Outlook There is some kind of agreement on the US-China trade issues, but there is nothing in writing yet. She thinks the market had already factored this in and is now selling on news. Even an easing of tariffs would be positive for China and business confidence globally would pick up. She would like to see companies increase spending to expand capacity. Her top picks are avoiding deep cyclical names. She expects to see US economic growth to slow modestly, but a recession will be avoided. Even in Canada there is a shortage of skilled workers, causing he to be weary of wage inflation.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 13, 2019
Hitting the major factors which include Brexit, USMCA and the trade war. In one day, we get details but the market was flat.
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General Market Comment
December 13, 2019
Hitting the major factors which include Brexit, USMCA and the trade war. In one day, we get details but the market was flat.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 13, 2019

He was surprised by the election of Boris Johnson. Nothing moved today. There probably would have been more volatility if the news today didn't come in.

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General Market Comment
December 13, 2019

He was surprised by the election of Boris Johnson. Nothing moved today. There probably would have been more volatility if the news today didn't come in.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 13, 2019
Tariffs being delayed between the US and China is seen positively. It's in the best interest for both parties.
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General Market Comment
December 13, 2019
Tariffs being delayed between the US and China is seen positively. It's in the best interest for both parties.
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