A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 22, 2020
Silver? Both silver and gold have been in vogue lately because of low interest rates. A number of countries are struggling, so when currency is declining people want protection through metals. These have been poor investments over the long run. Silver will likely under-perform so many good companies going forward.
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Silver? Both silver and gold have been in vogue lately because of low interest rates. A number of countries are struggling, so when currency is declining people want protection through metals. These have been poor investments over the long run. Silver will likely under-perform so many good companies going forward.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 21, 2020
The stock market has had a V-shaped recovery, but the economy hasn't as people need time to get used to say, going to a restaurant, or heading downtown. This will eventually effect the stock market. Who really knows what 2021 earnings will be? Those projections will likely drift down later this year. Invest in specific areas of the market. Be cautious and patient. Own asset-light companies with good balance sheets and low debt.
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The stock market has had a V-shaped recovery, but the economy hasn't as people need time to get used to say, going to a restaurant, or heading downtown. This will eventually effect the stock market. Who really knows what 2021 earnings will be? Those projections will likely drift down later this year. Invest in specific areas of the market. Be cautious and patient. Own asset-light companies with good balance sheets and low debt.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 21, 2020
Dividends safe for Canadian banks in the coming years? Like the US banks, Canadian ones will have difficult quarters, but they have lots of capital to protect their dividends. Don't expect share buybacks though. Loan loss provisions will increase until the economy returns to some sort of normalcy. Eventually, the headwinds will turn into tailwinds. The dividends are sustainable.
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Dividends safe for Canadian banks in the coming years? Like the US banks, Canadian ones will have difficult quarters, but they have lots of capital to protect their dividends. Don't expect share buybacks though. Loan loss provisions will increase until the economy returns to some sort of normalcy. Eventually, the headwinds will turn into tailwinds. The dividends are sustainable.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 20, 2020
We're pushing conditions like those in 1999 with high valuations. The global pandemic has created a bifurcation in new economy vs. old economy stocks as central banks support markets. It'll be interesting how this plays out. He sees a gradual, L-shaped recovery, not V-shaped. The world economy has shrunk 5%, there's double-digit unemployment, a change in behaviour (in videoconferncing vs. working in an office) and a massive $9 trillion in emergency stimulus from world central banks. Make sure to have true diversification in your portfolio. Can you handle another downturn? companies like Microsoft and Visa are trading at lofty valuations--everything has to go perfectly to receive a payoff from these stocks. Is future growth reflect in current valuations? That's the $64,000 question.
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We're pushing conditions like those in 1999 with high valuations. The global pandemic has created a bifurcation in new economy vs. old economy stocks as central banks support markets. It'll be interesting how this plays out. He sees a gradual, L-shaped recovery, not V-shaped. The world economy has shrunk 5%, there's double-digit unemployment, a change in behaviour (in videoconferncing vs. working in an office) and a massive $9 trillion in emergency stimulus from world central banks. Make sure to have true diversification in your portfolio. Can you handle another downturn? companies like Microsoft and Visa are trading at lofty valuations--everything has to go perfectly to receive a payoff from these stocks. Is future growth reflect in current valuations? That's the $64,000 question.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 20, 2020
US ETFs hedged and not hedged to the USD? Buy hedged as well as non, half and half. Both.
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US ETFs hedged and not hedged to the USD? Buy hedged as well as non, half and half. Both.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 17, 2020
Market Outlook The market is close to valuations of 2000. When the market is peaking, this may attract a new wave of investors that creates a mockery of valuation metrics. There will be a flood of financial reportings in the market next week that will undoubtedly lead to a substantial move in the marketplace. It was similar market conditions back in 2000, before the market finally let go and collapsed.
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Market Outlook The market is close to valuations of 2000. When the market is peaking, this may attract a new wave of investors that creates a mockery of valuation metrics. There will be a flood of financial reportings in the market next week that will undoubtedly lead to a substantial move in the marketplace. It was similar market conditions back in 2000, before the market finally let go and collapsed.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 17, 2020
Market top still 3150? The 3150 level for the S&P500 is his estimate for fair market value. There has been a radical change in the outlook for the market based on government stimulus. His fair value is now 2600-2700. The technical price-to-book metric he follows projected 3400-3600, the last peak in 2000 before the collapse -- that is about 4 times book value. There will be 500 new balance sheets coming into the market next week as earnings are reported. This will cause the market to move substantially.
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Market top still 3150? The 3150 level for the S&P500 is his estimate for fair market value. There has been a radical change in the outlook for the market based on government stimulus. His fair value is now 2600-2700. The technical price-to-book metric he follows projected 3400-3600, the last peak in 2000 before the collapse -- that is about 4 times book value. There will be 500 new balance sheets coming into the market next week as earnings are reported. This will cause the market to move substantially.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 17, 2020
Gold He sees an extreme loss of confidence in the paper currency market sometime in the future. He recommends holding at least 20% gold in your portfolio. His gold holdings have crept up to become 40% of his portfolios and he has no intention to reduce that -- he is letting them run. This is not just as US problem, it is a global problem as the balance sheets of all the key economies are of concern. He thinks we may also see a rebound in inflation as well. He is not a gold bug, he is a balance sheet bug.
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Gold He sees an extreme loss of confidence in the paper currency market sometime in the future. He recommends holding at least 20% gold in your portfolio. His gold holdings have crept up to become 40% of his portfolios and he has no intention to reduce that -- he is letting them run. This is not just as US problem, it is a global problem as the balance sheets of all the key economies are of concern. He thinks we may also see a rebound in inflation as well. He is not a gold bug, he is a balance sheet bug.
N/A
N/A
July 17, 2020
US Presidential Elections. People are discounting the polls like last elections. The market is not prepared for a Biden win and a major change in government. In terms of tax policy and earnings, it's gonna be bad if it happens. The earnings growth expectations won't be anywhere close if Biden is elected, especially without a V-shaped recovery.
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US Presidential Elections. People are discounting the polls like last elections. The market is not prepared for a Biden win and a major change in government. In terms of tax policy and earnings, it's gonna be bad if it happens. The earnings growth expectations won't be anywhere close if Biden is elected, especially without a V-shaped recovery.
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July 17, 2020
Earnings expectations. Markets are discounting this year and focusing on next year. We have higher debt and more taxes so there will be pressure on a strong year next year. Earnings are better than expected. Trade and bank revenues were up this week. Loan loss is higher than average though. There is more uncertainty and he expects lower multiples.
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Earnings expectations. Markets are discounting this year and focusing on next year. We have higher debt and more taxes so there will be pressure on a strong year next year. Earnings are better than expected. Trade and bank revenues were up this week. Loan loss is higher than average though. There is more uncertainty and he expects lower multiples.
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N/A
July 17, 2020
Bank of Canada. The interest rate will be anchored to zero just for the economy to get by. At some point, there will be an inflation shock. When inflation pressure builds, it will be a colossal cost to governments. They will raise taxes.
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Bank of Canada. The interest rate will be anchored to zero just for the economy to get by. At some point, there will be an inflation shock. When inflation pressure builds, it will be a colossal cost to governments. They will raise taxes.
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July 17, 2020
Value stocks vs growth stocks. The NASDAQ closed down and the S&P closed up this week meaning there was more money going into the value stocks. When comparing the NASDAQ100 ETF to Berkshire Hathaway, when the tech bubble burst, money came back to the value stocks. Looking at the S&P500 value vs growth ETFs, we can see that growth stocks have outperformed. There is a big concentration of the growth portfolio relying on big names like Amazon and Google. For him, it's not between growth and value, but that energy is out and there is change in fundamentals. He thinks technology is the future. Healthcare is the only sector that he sees growth.
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Value stocks vs growth stocks. The NASDAQ closed down and the S&P closed up this week meaning there was more money going into the value stocks. When comparing the NASDAQ100 ETF to Berkshire Hathaway, when the tech bubble burst, money came back to the value stocks. Looking at the S&P500 value vs growth ETFs, we can see that growth stocks have outperformed. There is a big concentration of the growth portfolio relying on big names like Amazon and Google. For him, it's not between growth and value, but that energy is out and there is change in fundamentals. He thinks technology is the future. Healthcare is the only sector that he sees growth.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 16, 2020
Do you feel that the economy is running off a cliff, with people not realizing that the only thing holding it up is government support? There is some disconnect between markets and the economy. Household and corporations are getting a lot of support. So the consumer isn't feeling the decline in income.
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Do you feel that the economy is running off a cliff, with people not realizing that the only thing holding it up is government support? There is some disconnect between markets and the economy. Household and corporations are getting a lot of support. So the consumer isn't feeling the decline in income.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 16, 2020
Will the US election be the focus in months to come? There will be increasing focus. Polls show that Biden has the lead. We hear more policy statements every day. Corporate taxes will go up, which could become a headwind. So profit recovery to pre-Covid levels may be more protracted than the consensus. It will take longer than just next year.
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Will the US election be the focus in months to come? There will be increasing focus. Polls show that Biden has the lead. We hear more policy statements every day. Corporate taxes will go up, which could become a headwind. So profit recovery to pre-Covid levels may be more protracted than the consensus. It will take longer than just next year.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 16, 2020
Where are the opportunities? Bifurcation in the market. Money flow has gone to some of the secular growth areas, so valuations are elevated. Some of the more defensive names have been left behind, like staples and utilities. We're seeing some value in the market. Could be due for a pullback.
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Where are the opportunities? Bifurcation in the market. Money flow has gone to some of the secular growth areas, so valuations are elevated. Some of the more defensive names have been left behind, like staples and utilities. We're seeing some value in the market. Could be due for a pullback.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 15, 2020
Market Outlook There are a lot of moving parts in the market these days. We are at an important juncture right now. This is technology valuations being detached from the fundamentals of the market. Either the broad market will rise faster than the tech stocks or tech stocks are going to fall. He hopes for the latter. Vaccine stocks should be treated as speculative. Human trials are beginning, but it will take a while to prove them up. He does not pretend to be a biotech expert. He continues to see digitization being even more important during the pandemic theme. AI, merging the real and virtual worlds, along with digitization are the key themes. He is 85% invested in these themes, with a 65% short equity hedge overlay. He is over weight on his hedge as he beliefs there are more downside risks in the market right now, which still allows him to benefit somewhat on the market "melt up". He sees the Cloud being split between the semi-conductors and the equipment space.
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Market Outlook There are a lot of moving parts in the market these days. We are at an important juncture right now. This is technology valuations being detached from the fundamentals of the market. Either the broad market will rise faster than the tech stocks or tech stocks are going to fall. He hopes for the latter. Vaccine stocks should be treated as speculative. Human trials are beginning, but it will take a while to prove them up. He does not pretend to be a biotech expert. He continues to see digitization being even more important during the pandemic theme. AI, merging the real and virtual worlds, along with digitization are the key themes. He is 85% invested in these themes, with a 65% short equity hedge overlay. He is over weight on his hedge as he beliefs there are more downside risks in the market right now, which still allows him to benefit somewhat on the market "melt up". He sees the Cloud being split between the semi-conductors and the equipment space.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 15, 2020
Bitcoin? He has some limited clients that hold bitcoin. There are two ways to play it 1) directly into a bitcoin wallet or 2) into a fund. He has not bought into the funds as they trade at a premium to the underlying bitcoin price. If you are looking for a cryptocurrency as an investment, he would recommend buying the bitcoin itself. If the funds ever move into alignment on value with the underlying, then he would recommend the funds.
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Bitcoin? He has some limited clients that hold bitcoin. There are two ways to play it 1) directly into a bitcoin wallet or 2) into a fund. He has not bought into the funds as they trade at a premium to the underlying bitcoin price. If you are looking for a cryptocurrency as an investment, he would recommend buying the bitcoin itself. If the funds ever move into alignment on value with the underlying, then he would recommend the funds.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 14, 2020
In this split market, the cyclical stocks will face headwinds until COVID comes under control in the U.S. and consumer demand picks up. In contrast, the tech stocks are on fire and will likely continue to do pretty well. He likes industrials such as Linamar; cars are starting to see a pick-up and Linamar continues to invest in technology, so the company should be strong post-pandemic. He doesn't expect the market to return to March's lows, though the recovery could take longer than expected especially for industries like restaurants. A vaccine will certainly offer comfort and improve business.
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In this split market, the cyclical stocks will face headwinds until COVID comes under control in the U.S. and consumer demand picks up. In contrast, the tech stocks are on fire and will likely continue to do pretty well. He likes industrials such as Linamar; cars are starting to see a pick-up and Linamar continues to invest in technology, so the company should be strong post-pandemic. He doesn't expect the market to return to March's lows, though the recovery could take longer than expected especially for industries like restaurants. A vaccine will certainly offer comfort and improve business.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 14, 2020
Cannabis sector He isn't involved at all in cannabis. It feels like a commoditized product, and the quality of management teams is not impressive. The sector is an uphill battle. In the future, will it be cheaper to produce weed in southern countries instead of Canada and the U.S?
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Cannabis sector He isn't involved at all in cannabis. It feels like a commoditized product, and the quality of management teams is not impressive. The sector is an uphill battle. In the future, will it be cheaper to produce weed in southern countries instead of Canada and the U.S?
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 13, 2020
Hotels and shopping malls will take a long time to recover. It's an incredible time in the market now with all this buoyant behaviour, coming right after the worst quarter in ages. He is "nervous long" in his stocks, but the tailwinds are rock-bottom low interest rates and monetary stimulus. Expectations of bouncing back to normal, as well as mounting debt, are concerns. He's cautious and looking for dividends. He has a core position in gold, about 7-8% in gold and silver in his portfolios. The US dollar will rollover as the US becomes the biggest debtor nation. Paper currencies are at risk--there's so much paper money out there.
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Hotels and shopping malls will take a long time to recover. It's an incredible time in the market now with all this buoyant behaviour, coming right after the worst quarter in ages. He is "nervous long" in his stocks, but the tailwinds are rock-bottom low interest rates and monetary stimulus. Expectations of bouncing back to normal, as well as mounting debt, are concerns. He's cautious and looking for dividends. He has a core position in gold, about 7-8% in gold and silver in his portfolios. The US dollar will rollover as the US becomes the biggest debtor nation. Paper currencies are at risk--there's so much paper money out there.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 13, 2020
Silver outlook He likes silver, which outperforms later in the cycle. There's a lag, but it will catch up to gold, and both will go higher. He has pure plays on silver.
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Silver outlook He likes silver, which outperforms later in the cycle. There's a lag, but it will catch up to gold, and both will go higher. He has pure plays on silver.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 10, 2020
Market Outlook He is still a long term US dollar bull. If anything goes wrong in the latter half of the year, it is the only safe haven, he thinks.
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Market Outlook He is still a long term US dollar bull. If anything goes wrong in the latter half of the year, it is the only safe haven, he thinks.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 10, 2020
Gold. Gold is not his cup of tea. He has a model price that is over 40% lower than current market prices. He would rather put his money some place else -- outside gold. He would favour stocks that will benefit post-pandemic trends, like e-commerce.
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Gold. Gold is not his cup of tea. He has a model price that is over 40% lower than current market prices. He would rather put his money some place else -- outside gold. He would favour stocks that will benefit post-pandemic trends, like e-commerce.
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July 10, 2020
Coronavirus cases in the United States. There was a compelling headline this morning of Remdesivir, the anti-viral drug from Gilead, showing efficacy in treating critical patients. The market celebrates this type of news, but it is not a cure, and we need a vaccine for things to go back to normal.
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Coronavirus cases in the United States. There was a compelling headline this morning of Remdesivir, the anti-viral drug from Gilead, showing efficacy in treating critical patients. The market celebrates this type of news, but it is not a cure, and we need a vaccine for things to go back to normal.
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July 10, 2020
Earnings season. Last week he suggested being bearish on American banks. Today, there was massive call spread buying on the options market. Call spreads are a defensive way to play the earning season. There is optimism coming into the market. Banks have pulled back so there is some value trade. He expect the earnings to have more disappointments than good news.
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Earnings season. Last week he suggested being bearish on American banks. Today, there was massive call spread buying on the options market. Call spreads are a defensive way to play the earning season. There is optimism coming into the market. Banks have pulled back so there is some value trade. He expect the earnings to have more disappointments than good news.
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July 10, 2020
Q2. There is tremendous amounts of noise. With the current levels of markets, there is a fair bit of perfect scenario priced in than disappointments.
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Q2. There is tremendous amounts of noise. With the current levels of markets, there is a fair bit of perfect scenario priced in than disappointments.
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N/A
July 10, 2020
Canada's AAA rating. Looking at where Canada should be trading, it should be at AA-. The US should also be at a similar level. He doesn't think the rating agencies are correctly reflecting the risks. Governments are printing money to manage the debt issues.
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Canada's AAA rating. Looking at where Canada should be trading, it should be at AA-. The US should also be at a similar level. He doesn't think the rating agencies are correctly reflecting the risks. Governments are printing money to manage the debt issues.
WAIT
WAIT
July 10, 2020
ARC ETFs. An ETF issuer that has a number of thematic ETFs, including fintech, robotics, general innovations, etc. He loves this company's funds. Right now, be patient and wait for a pull-back.
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ARC ETFs. An ETF issuer that has a number of thematic ETFs, including fintech, robotics, general innovations, etc. He loves this company's funds. Right now, be patient and wait for a pull-back.
N/A
N/A
July 10, 2020
Biden. There's going to be political will to raise corporate tax rates and bring jobs back to America. There will be some supply price increases since labour costs will go up. He wants to raise minimum wages, reverse Trump's tax policies, and tax policies that encourage outsourcing. These policies will add to margin pressures. Biden wants to focus on clean energy in regards to infrastructure. ICLN, ZMT could be a good way to play this. Technical set-up and fundamental catalyst point to both benefitting if Biden wins.
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Biden. There's going to be political will to raise corporate tax rates and bring jobs back to America. There will be some supply price increases since labour costs will go up. He wants to raise minimum wages, reverse Trump's tax policies, and tax policies that encourage outsourcing. These policies will add to margin pressures. Biden wants to focus on clean energy in regards to infrastructure. ICLN, ZMT could be a good way to play this. Technical set-up and fundamental catalyst point to both benefitting if Biden wins.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 9, 2020
Selling in the markets today. After tremendous Q2 recovery, equities are due for a bit of a pause. In part due to rising Covid-19 cases, especially in the US. Slower reopening would dampen corporate earnings. Renewed US-China tensions are probably at play. Upcoming US election divisiveness is weighing on consumer sentiment as well.
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Selling in the markets today. After tremendous Q2 recovery, equities are due for a bit of a pause. In part due to rising Covid-19 cases, especially in the US. Slower reopening would dampen corporate earnings. Renewed US-China tensions are probably at play. Upcoming US election divisiveness is weighing on consumer sentiment as well.
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