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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary
Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 11, 2020
The hard part for investors is that we're not viral experts, but some experts have said that the coronavirus will peak in the spring and subside when the hot weather of summer. Also, China's measures to contain it are helping. Overall, things look good for stocks. The rally won't be derailed. He sees no end to the bull run in tech, his favourite sector. He prefers American over Canadian stocks. He's been all-in America (MSFT, Amazon) in the past 5 years. The US economy looks better than the Canadian, but there are winning stocks in Canada.
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The hard part for investors is that we're not viral experts, but some experts have said that the coronavirus will peak in the spring and subside when the hot weather of summer. Also, China's measures to contain it are helping. Overall, things look good for stocks. The rally won't be derailed. He sees no end to the bull run in tech, his favourite sector. He prefers American over Canadian stocks. He's been all-in America (MSFT, Amazon) in the past 5 years. The US economy looks better than the Canadian, but there are winning stocks in Canada.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 11, 2020
Markets are continuing, simply. You don't know what'll happen with the coronavirus--markets dropped then recovered, but it may or may not be a black swan event, but it isn't over yet--and there remains risk. Markets are being defensive. The impact will be negative for products made in China and for transportation.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarkets are continuing, simply. You don't know what'll happen with the coronavirus--markets dropped then recovered, but it may or may not be a black swan event, but it isn't over yet--and there remains risk. Markets are being defensive. The impact will be negative for products made in China and for transportation.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 11, 2020
Is there a 5G ETF? Not that he knows of. Maybe there is one in the U.S. But the universe of these 5G stocks like Nokia and Ericcson is too small. Better to buy the individual stocks.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIs there a 5G ETF? Not that he knows of. Maybe there is one in the U.S. But the universe of these 5G stocks like Nokia and Ericcson is too small. Better to buy the individual stocks.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 11, 2020
Do covered call stocks and ETFs actually protect on the downside, as in Dec. 2018's sell-off? Covered calls offer little protection on the downside except the covered call premium of 3%. He likes covered calls, but they confuse retail investors. When markets tanked in Dec. 2018, he sold covered calls and bought stocks.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDo covered call stocks and ETFs actually protect on the downside, as in Dec. 2018's sell-off? Covered calls offer little protection on the downside except the covered call premium of 3%. He likes covered calls, but they confuse retail investors. When markets tanked in Dec. 2018, he sold covered calls and bought stocks.
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February 10, 2020
Market. He is attending two conferences in Florida this week. (a) The FX conference and (b) one with keynote speakers by Fed economists.
Corona Virus: It is temporary for sure, but this is going to be a lot bigger than SARS was by a long shot. It won't have a long lasting impact. But it will have a more prolonged impact than the SARS issue and probably has some more meaningful economic impact.
We saw the German Chancellor's heir apparent step aside. There is more extremism against more globalism and to more nationalism. This is troubling to him. Ultimately he thinks it is another headwind to more global economic growth.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket. He is attending two conferences in Florida this week. (a) The FX conference and (b) one with keynote speakers by Fed economists.
Corona Virus: It is temporary for sure, but this is going to be a lot bigger than SARS was by a long shot. It won't have a long lasting impact. But it will have a more prolonged impact than the SARS issue and probably has some more meaningful economic impact.
We saw the German Chancellor's heir apparent step aside. There is more extremism against more globalism and to more nationalism. This is troubling to him. Ultimately he thinks it is another headwind to more global economic growth.
BUY
BUY
February 10, 2020
Play China? KWEB-N is an ETF whose founders he met with at the ETF conference last week. It plays the Silk Road Initiative. He plays China through the 'A' shares market.
Show full opinionHide full opinionPlay China? KWEB-N is an ETF whose founders he met with at the ETF conference last week. It plays the Silk Road Initiative. He plays China through the 'A' shares market.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 10, 2020
Mortgage Insurance Plays. We are late in the cycle but interest rates will likely stay low for a while. He would not go for mortgage insurers at this point but would avoid.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMortgage Insurance Plays. We are late in the cycle but interest rates will likely stay low for a while. He would not go for mortgage insurers at this point but would avoid.
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February 10, 2020
Educational Segment. Environmental Social Governance Investing. The environment has been a theme in this day and age. There is a lot of value being created in this sector. EOM-T and CVX-N are the top of his list. SU-T and ENB-T are the better names in Canada.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Environmental Social Governance Investing. The environment has been a theme in this day and age. There is a lot of value being created in this sector. EOM-T and CVX-N are the top of his list. SU-T and ENB-T are the better names in Canada.
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N/A
February 10, 2020
Market. 2020 is going on with what happened in 2019. Equities continue to march higher. Rates will remain lower for longer. 2020 is going to be about multiple expansion. This is where infrastructure equities really shine. Digital infrastructure is going to play a much bigger role in the future.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket. 2020 is going on with what happened in 2019. Equities continue to march higher. Rates will remain lower for longer. 2020 is going to be about multiple expansion. This is where infrastructure equities really shine. Digital infrastructure is going to play a much bigger role in the future.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 10, 2020
It's a mania with so much momentum that won't derail money flowing into markets. This includes FOMO and a passive flow of funds, plus the thought that the Fed will save our butts. As for coronavirus, he compares it to the Fukushima nuclear disaster which took a major economy, Japan, off-stream for a quarter. Copper, oil and bonds tell us there's a problem, but not the rest of the market. Over 90% of the market gain last year was due to the higher multiple on stocks (lifted by cheap liquidity), not earnings growth anymore. Looking ahead, we'll have continued low interest rates, though the failed negative rate experiment has failed apart from trapping liquidity. We need basic fundamentals.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's a mania with so much momentum that won't derail money flowing into markets. This includes FOMO and a passive flow of funds, plus the thought that the Fed will save our butts. As for coronavirus, he compares it to the Fukushima nuclear disaster which took a major economy, Japan, off-stream for a quarter. Copper, oil and bonds tell us there's a problem, but not the rest of the market. Over 90% of the market gain last year was due to the higher multiple on stocks (lifted by cheap liquidity), not earnings growth anymore. Looking ahead, we'll have continued low interest rates, though the failed negative rate experiment has failed apart from trapping liquidity. We need basic fundamentals.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 7, 2020
Market Outlook The US employment numbers were better than expected. The four year cycle is still up. He spoke with an analyst who believes there is at least another 4 up years to come. We are in a short term pullback, which should provide a strong buying opportunity. With bond yields about 1.3% in the US, corporate average dividends exceed that so this will act as another bullish catalyst to the market. Buy the dips.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket Outlook The US employment numbers were better than expected. The four year cycle is still up. He spoke with an analyst who believes there is at least another 4 up years to come. We are in a short term pullback, which should provide a strong buying opportunity. With bond yields about 1.3% in the US, corporate average dividends exceed that so this will act as another bullish catalyst to the market. Buy the dips.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 7, 2020
We saw bond prices rising by 6 basis points which is a concern. The yield curve has inverted yet again. Bond investors are running to the hills. Looking at the junk bond yields, at 2008, it was at 16%. Now, the yield is at 3%. It tells him that the bond market does not reflect the equities.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWe saw bond prices rising by 6 basis points which is a concern. The yield curve has inverted yet again. Bond investors are running to the hills. Looking at the junk bond yields, at 2008, it was at 16%. Now, the yield is at 3%. It tells him that the bond market does not reflect the equities.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 7, 2020
Looking at the background of what's going on and why. Last year the NASDAQ was up 35% and stock prices were up 25% based on price-earnings multiple expansion and not on earnings. There were investors who were rotating sectors or piling into shares, like what happened to Tesla. He would recommend half-position entries. Have some cash on hand to see how things unfold.
Show full opinionHide full opinionLooking at the background of what's going on and why. Last year the NASDAQ was up 35% and stock prices were up 25% based on price-earnings multiple expansion and not on earnings. There were investors who were rotating sectors or piling into shares, like what happened to Tesla. He would recommend half-position entries. Have some cash on hand to see how things unfold.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 7, 2020
Historically, momentum traders last around 2-3 years. When the music stops, stocks can dip 60%. Right now, the stock market is overbought so any volatility will send the market even lower quickly.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHistorically, momentum traders last around 2-3 years. When the music stops, stocks can dip 60%. Right now, the stock market is overbought so any volatility will send the market even lower quickly.
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N/A
February 6, 2020
Market. Fang Stocks. At least a couple of them are overvalued. He thinks history will repeat itself from the Nifty-Fifty days. He presumes they will take a hit. He is concerned about the level they have reached. AAPL-Q is only about 40-50% overvalued, but AMZN-Q is unbelievable. The question is what are their earnings.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket. Fang Stocks. At least a couple of them are overvalued. He thinks history will repeat itself from the Nifty-Fifty days. He presumes they will take a hit. He is concerned about the level they have reached. AAPL-Q is only about 40-50% overvalued, but AMZN-Q is unbelievable. The question is what are their earnings.
