A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 28, 2020
Stop losses You tell your broker to sell a stock when it falls to a certain price, useful for traders and speculators but not long-term investors. If you like a stock at $125, you should like it more at $110 and not sell it or even buy more. He never uses stop losses and doesn't recommend them to long-term investors.
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Stop losses You tell your broker to sell a stock when it falls to a certain price, useful for traders and speculators but not long-term investors. If you like a stock at $125, you should like it more at $110 and not sell it or even buy more. He never uses stop losses and doesn't recommend them to long-term investors.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 28, 2020
Hello, I am Michael O'Reilly-- Stockchase Research editor. Today we begin reporting "Stockchase Research Top Picks" and will do so every Tuesday and Thursday. These picks focus on newly released institutional analyst opinions and targets along with our own additional insights. Today's Top Picks focus on the trends in gold, cloud services and 5G, along with home improvement. Enjoy!
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Hello, I am Michael O'Reilly-- Stockchase Research editor. Today we begin reporting "Stockchase Research Top Picks" and will do so every Tuesday and Thursday. These picks focus on newly released institutional analyst opinions and targets along with our own additional insights. Today's Top Picks focus on the trends in gold, cloud services and 5G, along with home improvement. Enjoy!
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 27, 2020
He's been bullish since late-March due to so much stimulus in the system, but in the last 3 weeks the markets has been narrowing with tech and healthcare facing headwinds now. 10 days ago we saw a strong reversal intra-day. He's become cautious, taking profits in tech names and holds short positions. He sees a rotation into transport stocks and medical devices. Expect bumpiness in the next few weeks. Earnings this week are important to watch to see how the market reacts to those reports and to guidance. Markets consistently rally on good vaccine or stimulus news, including today.
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He's been bullish since late-March due to so much stimulus in the system, but in the last 3 weeks the markets has been narrowing with tech and healthcare facing headwinds now. 10 days ago we saw a strong reversal intra-day. He's become cautious, taking profits in tech names and holds short positions. He sees a rotation into transport stocks and medical devices. Expect bumpiness in the next few weeks. Earnings this week are important to watch to see how the market reacts to those reports and to guidance. Markets consistently rally on good vaccine or stimulus news, including today.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 24, 2020
Market Outlook This week in the market has had a lot of issues to deal with. Going forward investors need to be cognizant of these points and how they may impact their portfolios. There is a potential in the US to see the pandemic case and death counts tick up. He suggested investors should re-think asset allocations. Those heading into retirement should want some exposure into fixed income and increasingly into cash.
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Market Outlook This week in the market has had a lot of issues to deal with. Going forward investors need to be cognizant of these points and how they may impact their portfolios. There is a potential in the US to see the pandemic case and death counts tick up. He suggested investors should re-think asset allocations. Those heading into retirement should want some exposure into fixed income and increasingly into cash.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 24, 2020
US Banks? The big US banks have reported this week. All have pre-signalled what they expect loan losses from the pandemic to be. All the expected losses have been big, making this sector one he is suggesting patience with. He might suggest WFC as they have new executives in place. The company has been hurt and could be moving away from the issues dogging them in the past.
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US Banks? The big US banks have reported this week. All have pre-signalled what they expect loan losses from the pandemic to be. All the expected losses have been big, making this sector one he is suggesting patience with. He might suggest WFC as they have new executives in place. The company has been hurt and could be moving away from the issues dogging them in the past.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 24, 2020
Nasdaq vs TSE exchanges? If you look at the Nasdaq, it has been dominated by just a few names with the shift of work to home. We are likely to see mean reversion. He might trim a Nasdaq position and add to a TSE position. He also would look outside North America due to the correlation of the TSE with US markets. He might suggest looking into a Eurostock 600 ETF to be added.
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Nasdaq vs TSE exchanges? If you look at the Nasdaq, it has been dominated by just a few names with the shift of work to home. We are likely to see mean reversion. He might trim a Nasdaq position and add to a TSE position. He also would look outside North America due to the correlation of the TSE with US markets. He might suggest looking into a Eurostock 600 ETF to be added.
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July 24, 2020
Markets. A battle between the bulls and the bears. The quality of this rally, looking at institutions and retail flows, is poor. The rally is really coming from small individual investors and not institutions. It's driven by central bank support and liquidity that hasn't really solved any of the risk issues that is in the backdrop.
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Markets. A battle between the bulls and the bears. The quality of this rally, looking at institutions and retail flows, is poor. The rally is really coming from small individual investors and not institutions. It's driven by central bank support and liquidity that hasn't really solved any of the risk issues that is in the backdrop.
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July 24, 2020
The fundamentals are not bullish, especially since central banks in many countries had to take on debt and print money. It's an inherent sign of the fundamental weakness in the world economy. It doesn't mean the markets can't continue to go higher, especially with investors who fear missing out but he sees tougher times ahead.
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The fundamentals are not bullish, especially since central banks in many countries had to take on debt and print money. It's an inherent sign of the fundamental weakness in the world economy. It doesn't mean the markets can't continue to go higher, especially with investors who fear missing out but he sees tougher times ahead.
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July 24, 2020
Gold. One of his favourite asset classes. It's a great hedge for market uncertainty and volatility. He sees it going even higher.
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Gold. One of his favourite asset classes. It's a great hedge for market uncertainty and volatility. He sees it going even higher.
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July 24, 2020
Share buybacks. He sees buying back stocks as a form of financial engineering that compensates the C-suite tremendously. He is a critique of share buybacks. He thinks that companies that have bought back stocks will have regulatory restrictions, such as the aviation industry.
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Share buybacks. He sees buying back stocks as a form of financial engineering that compensates the C-suite tremendously. He is a critique of share buybacks. He thinks that companies that have bought back stocks will have regulatory restrictions, such as the aviation industry.
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July 24, 2020
USD Reserve Status. Looking at the cycle of the reserve currency economies of the world, there is a shift with the US and China battling for trade. These cycles take place in decades and centuries. Looking at the Chinese yuan, in the last couple years, the government has devalued it tremendously. The broader US Dollar index is still within the average range. Bottom line, countries will be printing money and taking on debt. Right now, you have to like gold.
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USD Reserve Status. Looking at the cycle of the reserve currency economies of the world, there is a shift with the US and China battling for trade. These cycles take place in decades and centuries. Looking at the Chinese yuan, in the last couple years, the government has devalued it tremendously. The broader US Dollar index is still within the average range. Bottom line, countries will be printing money and taking on debt. Right now, you have to like gold.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 23, 2020
Caution doesn't apply to every stock? That's right. Most of the averages are capitalization weighted. The very large companies are doing better and driving the indexes higher. So, while the indexes are at record levels, the average company is 10% below its record level. Worries include high valuations as well as Covid.
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Caution doesn't apply to every stock? That's right. Most of the averages are capitalization weighted. The very large companies are doing better and driving the indexes higher. So, while the indexes are at record levels, the average company is 10% below its record level. Worries include high valuations as well as Covid.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 23, 2020
A sense of unreality in the markets now? Market looks into the future, and it's telling us that there is an end in sight. The risk is that the market gets it wrong. By "market", he means the cumulative weight of all investment dollars. The market has a strong record of getting it right.
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A sense of unreality in the markets now? Market looks into the future, and it's telling us that there is an end in sight. The risk is that the market gets it wrong. By "market", he means the cumulative weight of all investment dollars. The market has a strong record of getting it right.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 23, 2020
How to decide when to sell? That's the difficult part. Take an unemotional view. How does it compare to its own history, its peer group, and to all of the opportunities out there? He likes it trading at or below its historical norm in terms of valuation metrics. It should be competitive against its peers and the market.
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How to decide when to sell? That's the difficult part. Take an unemotional view. How does it compare to its own history, its peer group, and to all of the opportunities out there? He likes it trading at or below its historical norm in terms of valuation metrics. It should be competitive against its peers and the market.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 23, 2020
How do you participate in this market? He uses a barbell approach. He does own some FANGs, but also value stocks like JP Morgan, CVS, and Raytheon.
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How do you participate in this market? He uses a barbell approach. He does own some FANGs, but also value stocks like JP Morgan, CVS, and Raytheon.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 22, 2020
Market Outlook Investing when interest rates are zero are driving up bond values. Ten year US treasuries are down to a yield of 0.6%, down from 2.0% a year ago. Interest rates will likely creep back up a bit as central banks take their foot off the gas, at least a little. This is expected to reduce the valuations of bonds soon. He expects the global economies will recover eventually after this. In ten years time we think of this event as a distant memory. Don't get used to mortgage rates being this low forever. His free website is steinbergwealth.com.
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Market Outlook Investing when interest rates are zero are driving up bond values. Ten year US treasuries are down to a yield of 0.6%, down from 2.0% a year ago. Interest rates will likely creep back up a bit as central banks take their foot off the gas, at least a little. This is expected to reduce the valuations of bonds soon. He expects the global economies will recover eventually after this. In ten years time we think of this event as a distant memory. Don't get used to mortgage rates being this low forever. His free website is steinbergwealth.com.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 22, 2020
BoC interest rates? He thinks the Bank of Canada is following the footsteps of other central banks. We have probably seen the last cut from the BoC and we are in a good position now.
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BoC interest rates? He thinks the Bank of Canada is following the footsteps of other central banks. We have probably seen the last cut from the BoC and we are in a good position now.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 22, 2020
Canadian banks? He has a Canadian dividend fund they started this year and it holds a lot of Canadian banks. When some bank share prices tumbled as much as 50%, they still did not cut dividends. The share price could be volatile and since they offer tremendous value in the long run and are well capitalized against loan losses, they are a good buy. The Canadian government is doing all it can to ensure the economy will survive. And the dividends are secure.
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Canadian banks? He has a Canadian dividend fund they started this year and it holds a lot of Canadian banks. When some bank share prices tumbled as much as 50%, they still did not cut dividends. The share price could be volatile and since they offer tremendous value in the long run and are well capitalized against loan losses, they are a good buy. The Canadian government is doing all it can to ensure the economy will survive. And the dividends are secure.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 22, 2020
Energy into Gold? He is not a short term trader. He does not know the timing in a short time period to bet that gold will go up versus oil. It is more a gamble than an investment. It is easier to think of companies you can buy and hold for 5 years that he would be happy with. Neither sector has done well over the long term when you look historically at their capital allocation strategies.
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Energy into Gold? He is not a short term trader. He does not know the timing in a short time period to bet that gold will go up versus oil. It is more a gamble than an investment. It is easier to think of companies you can buy and hold for 5 years that he would be happy with. Neither sector has done well over the long term when you look historically at their capital allocation strategies.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 22, 2020
Blackrock Municpal Bond Trust? Muni-bonds are only attractive for Americans, because of the favorable tax treatment. It does not make sense for Canadians.
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Blackrock Municpal Bond Trust? Muni-bonds are only attractive for Americans, because of the favorable tax treatment. It does not make sense for Canadians.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 22, 2020
Silver? Both silver and gold have been in vogue lately because of low interest rates. A number of countries are struggling, so when currency is declining people want protection through metals. These have been poor investments over the long run. Silver will likely under-perform so many good companies going forward.
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Silver? Both silver and gold have been in vogue lately because of low interest rates. A number of countries are struggling, so when currency is declining people want protection through metals. These have been poor investments over the long run. Silver will likely under-perform so many good companies going forward.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 21, 2020
The stock market has had a V-shaped recovery, but the economy hasn't as people need time to get used to say, going to a restaurant, or heading downtown. This will eventually effect the stock market. Who really knows what 2021 earnings will be? Those projections will likely drift down later this year. Invest in specific areas of the market. Be cautious and patient. Own asset-light companies with good balance sheets and low debt.
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The stock market has had a V-shaped recovery, but the economy hasn't as people need time to get used to say, going to a restaurant, or heading downtown. This will eventually effect the stock market. Who really knows what 2021 earnings will be? Those projections will likely drift down later this year. Invest in specific areas of the market. Be cautious and patient. Own asset-light companies with good balance sheets and low debt.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 21, 2020
Dividends safe for Canadian banks in the coming years? Like the US banks, Canadian ones will have difficult quarters, but they have lots of capital to protect their dividends. Don't expect share buybacks though. Loan loss provisions will increase until the economy returns to some sort of normalcy. Eventually, the headwinds will turn into tailwinds. The dividends are sustainable.
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Dividends safe for Canadian banks in the coming years? Like the US banks, Canadian ones will have difficult quarters, but they have lots of capital to protect their dividends. Don't expect share buybacks though. Loan loss provisions will increase until the economy returns to some sort of normalcy. Eventually, the headwinds will turn into tailwinds. The dividends are sustainable.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 20, 2020
We're pushing conditions like those in 1999 with high valuations. The global pandemic has created a bifurcation in new economy vs. old economy stocks as central banks support markets. It'll be interesting how this plays out. He sees a gradual, L-shaped recovery, not V-shaped. The world economy has shrunk 5%, there's double-digit unemployment, a change in behaviour (in videoconferncing vs. working in an office) and a massive $9 trillion in emergency stimulus from world central banks. Make sure to have true diversification in your portfolio. Can you handle another downturn? companies like Microsoft and Visa are trading at lofty valuations--everything has to go perfectly to receive a payoff from these stocks. Is future growth reflect in current valuations? That's the $64,000 question.
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We're pushing conditions like those in 1999 with high valuations. The global pandemic has created a bifurcation in new economy vs. old economy stocks as central banks support markets. It'll be interesting how this plays out. He sees a gradual, L-shaped recovery, not V-shaped. The world economy has shrunk 5%, there's double-digit unemployment, a change in behaviour (in videoconferncing vs. working in an office) and a massive $9 trillion in emergency stimulus from world central banks. Make sure to have true diversification in your portfolio. Can you handle another downturn? companies like Microsoft and Visa are trading at lofty valuations--everything has to go perfectly to receive a payoff from these stocks. Is future growth reflect in current valuations? That's the $64,000 question.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 20, 2020
US ETFs hedged and not hedged to the USD? Buy hedged as well as non, half and half. Both.
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US ETFs hedged and not hedged to the USD? Buy hedged as well as non, half and half. Both.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 17, 2020
Market Outlook The market is close to valuations of 2000. When the market is peaking, this may attract a new wave of investors that creates a mockery of valuation metrics. There will be a flood of financial reportings in the market next week that will undoubtedly lead to a substantial move in the marketplace. It was similar market conditions back in 2000, before the market finally let go and collapsed.
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Market Outlook The market is close to valuations of 2000. When the market is peaking, this may attract a new wave of investors that creates a mockery of valuation metrics. There will be a flood of financial reportings in the market next week that will undoubtedly lead to a substantial move in the marketplace. It was similar market conditions back in 2000, before the market finally let go and collapsed.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 17, 2020
Market top still 3150? The 3150 level for the S&P500 is his estimate for fair market value. There has been a radical change in the outlook for the market based on government stimulus. His fair value is now 2600-2700. The technical price-to-book metric he follows projected 3400-3600, the last peak in 2000 before the collapse -- that is about 4 times book value. There will be 500 new balance sheets coming into the market next week as earnings are reported. This will cause the market to move substantially.
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Market top still 3150? The 3150 level for the S&P500 is his estimate for fair market value. There has been a radical change in the outlook for the market based on government stimulus. His fair value is now 2600-2700. The technical price-to-book metric he follows projected 3400-3600, the last peak in 2000 before the collapse -- that is about 4 times book value. There will be 500 new balance sheets coming into the market next week as earnings are reported. This will cause the market to move substantially.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 17, 2020
Gold He sees an extreme loss of confidence in the paper currency market sometime in the future. He recommends holding at least 20% gold in your portfolio. His gold holdings have crept up to become 40% of his portfolios and he has no intention to reduce that -- he is letting them run. This is not just as US problem, it is a global problem as the balance sheets of all the key economies are of concern. He thinks we may also see a rebound in inflation as well. He is not a gold bug, he is a balance sheet bug.
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Gold He sees an extreme loss of confidence in the paper currency market sometime in the future. He recommends holding at least 20% gold in your portfolio. His gold holdings have crept up to become 40% of his portfolios and he has no intention to reduce that -- he is letting them run. This is not just as US problem, it is a global problem as the balance sheets of all the key economies are of concern. He thinks we may also see a rebound in inflation as well. He is not a gold bug, he is a balance sheet bug.
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July 17, 2020
US Presidential Elections. People are discounting the polls like last elections. The market is not prepared for a Biden win and a major change in government. In terms of tax policy and earnings, it's gonna be bad if it happens. The earnings growth expectations won't be anywhere close if Biden is elected, especially without a V-shaped recovery.
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US Presidential Elections. People are discounting the polls like last elections. The market is not prepared for a Biden win and a major change in government. In terms of tax policy and earnings, it's gonna be bad if it happens. The earnings growth expectations won't be anywhere close if Biden is elected, especially without a V-shaped recovery.
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July 17, 2020
Earnings expectations. Markets are discounting this year and focusing on next year. We have higher debt and more taxes so there will be pressure on a strong year next year. Earnings are better than expected. Trade and bank revenues were up this week. Loan loss is higher than average though. There is more uncertainty and he expects lower multiples.
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Earnings expectations. Markets are discounting this year and focusing on next year. We have higher debt and more taxes so there will be pressure on a strong year next year. Earnings are better than expected. Trade and bank revenues were up this week. Loan loss is higher than average though. There is more uncertainty and he expects lower multiples.
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