A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 10, 2020
2020 outlook: more gains to come. Markets can trend for a long time, and the cycle isn't ending anytime soon. Trump trade issues look they're fading and Brexit problems may soon fade. The outlook is good for stocks. True, anything can happen in world news. Iran stood down in the war threat this past week with America. Today's jobs numbers were good enough, not great, but good enough. Manufacturing is weak in America and the world. Boeing has continued woes. Earnings season is coming and will telegraph the future.
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General Market Comment
January 10, 2020
2020 outlook: more gains to come. Markets can trend for a long time, and the cycle isn't ending anytime soon. Trump trade issues look they're fading and Brexit problems may soon fade. The outlook is good for stocks. True, anything can happen in world news. Iran stood down in the war threat this past week with America. Today's jobs numbers were good enough, not great, but good enough. Manufacturing is weak in America and the world. Boeing has continued woes. Earnings season is coming and will telegraph the future.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 10, 2020
Better to sell a stock, pays the capital gains, then buyback at least 25% lower, or use new money to buy it (in an unregistered account)? If you're very bullish--confident that a high-flying stock will fall, then you can do sell-and-buyback later 34-50% lower. But you can't know that for sure. This is a tactical swing, based on a longer-term plan and a firm asset allocation (say, 60/40 stocks/bonds). It will work if you guess it for sure.
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General Market Comment
January 10, 2020
Better to sell a stock, pays the capital gains, then buyback at least 25% lower, or use new money to buy it (in an unregistered account)? If you're very bullish--confident that a high-flying stock will fall, then you can do sell-and-buyback later 34-50% lower. But you can't know that for sure. This is a tactical swing, based on a longer-term plan and a firm asset allocation (say, 60/40 stocks/bonds). It will work if you guess it for sure.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 10, 2020
Difference between cash flow and EPS? In oil, you talk cash flow per share growth; EPS with banks. Payout ratios apply to both metrics, and be very different sometimes. Say a power stock has a payout ratio of earnings at 200%, but 42% free cash flow--vastly different. Hard to summarize the difference. Instead, you must know the company and balance sheet.
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General Market Comment
January 10, 2020
Difference between cash flow and EPS? In oil, you talk cash flow per share growth; EPS with banks. Payout ratios apply to both metrics, and be very different sometimes. Say a power stock has a payout ratio of earnings at 200%, but 42% free cash flow--vastly different. Hard to summarize the difference. Instead, you must know the company and balance sheet.
N/A
N/A
January 9, 2020
Market. December of last year was very bad and then we had a fantastic year and then news came out and who know what will happen. She is a bottom up stock picker. The strategy is to look for good management teams. Investors should expect more volatility. The political events seem to be digested very quickly even if creating a lot of noise in the market. It's going to continue to be a tale of winners and losers.
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General Market Comment
January 9, 2020
Market. December of last year was very bad and then we had a fantastic year and then news came out and who know what will happen. She is a bottom up stock picker. The strategy is to look for good management teams. Investors should expect more volatility. The political events seem to be digested very quickly even if creating a lot of noise in the market. It's going to continue to be a tale of winners and losers.
N/A
N/A
January 9, 2020
People are worried about where things are going from here. The most important thing is knowing when you need the cash. You should not be forced to sell into a depressed market. Also you need to stay balanced.
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General Market Comment
January 9, 2020
People are worried about where things are going from here. The most important thing is knowing when you need the cash. You should not be forced to sell into a depressed market. Also you need to stay balanced.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2020
A good year for 2019? 2019 turned out be the best year of the decade for the TSX, up 95% in total returns when you include dividends. Dividends are often neglected when investors tally up their total returns.
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General Market Comment
January 9, 2020
A good year for 2019? 2019 turned out be the best year of the decade for the TSX, up 95% in total returns when you include dividends. Dividends are often neglected when investors tally up their total returns.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2020
Is there more juice in 2020? We think so. Doesn't see any reason why we don't march higher perhaps toward triple digit returns in the next decade, though not in a straight line. What was anomalous in the past decade was the subdued volatility. Expects higher prices over the next decade, but in a choppy fashion.
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General Market Comment
January 9, 2020
Is there more juice in 2020? We think so. Doesn't see any reason why we don't march higher perhaps toward triple digit returns in the next decade, though not in a straight line. What was anomalous in the past decade was the subdued volatility. Expects higher prices over the next decade, but in a choppy fashion.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2020
What does 2020 hold for the Canadian oil patch? In the first inning of a resurgence in energy. We won't go back to the days of $140 a barrel, but the psychology and sentiment of last fall are about as abysmal as you're going to get. Investors are ignoring the sector, yet the producers are generating a lot of free cash and buying back shares, things that the market will reward in due course.
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General Market Comment
January 9, 2020
What does 2020 hold for the Canadian oil patch? In the first inning of a resurgence in energy. We won't go back to the days of $140 a barrel, but the psychology and sentiment of last fall are about as abysmal as you're going to get. Investors are ignoring the sector, yet the producers are generating a lot of free cash and buying back shares, things that the market will reward in due course.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2020
What do you look for on rumours that a company's being acquired? You wouldn't like to sit on a stool with only 1 leg, so they look for companies that have 3 or 4 legs to the stool. So look for other qualities. Assess the credibility of the bid, regulatory approvals, sharehold approval, any competing bids.
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General Market Comment
January 9, 2020
What do you look for on rumours that a company's being acquired? You wouldn't like to sit on a stool with only 1 leg, so they look for companies that have 3 or 4 legs to the stool. So look for other qualities. Assess the credibility of the bid, regulatory approvals, sharehold approval, any competing bids.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2020
How to invest in the theme of water as the new oil? Likes the theme of infrastructure. Owns it indirectly through BAM. For a direct play on infrastructure like water, Brookfield Infrastructure would be good.
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General Market Comment
January 9, 2020
How to invest in the theme of water as the new oil? Likes the theme of infrastructure. Owns it indirectly through BAM. For a direct play on infrastructure like water, Brookfield Infrastructure would be good.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2020
When do you decide to hold more than one company in a sector? When there's enough idiosyncracy within that industry to warrant having two names. Or when there's enough exposure in the market overall that you ought to have more than one. For example, in a place like banks or the consumer space.
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General Market Comment
January 9, 2020
When do you decide to hold more than one company in a sector? When there's enough idiosyncracy within that industry to warrant having two names. Or when there's enough exposure in the market overall that you ought to have more than one. For example, in a place like banks or the consumer space.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 8, 2020
Market Outlook The market is betting that President Trump will not follow through on the attack into Iraq. However, any attack on US soil could be very detrimental to the market. Oil is down over 4% intraday today, testing $60. Shale decline rates may actually be much higher that originally thought, making the US not as self-sufficient as President Trump believes. Valuations in the markets today are based on investors chasing growth stocks. This may begin to change. Low interest rates has spawned very high levels of debt (consumer, corporate and government). This could make things precarious going forward.
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General Market Comment
January 8, 2020
Market Outlook The market is betting that President Trump will not follow through on the attack into Iraq. However, any attack on US soil could be very detrimental to the market. Oil is down over 4% intraday today, testing $60. Shale decline rates may actually be much higher that originally thought, making the US not as self-sufficient as President Trump believes. Valuations in the markets today are based on investors chasing growth stocks. This may begin to change. Low interest rates has spawned very high levels of debt (consumer, corporate and government). This could make things precarious going forward.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 8, 2020
CDN vs US financials? He thinks in terms of valuations it is in favour of Canadian financials based on price to cash (9.9 times for Canadian vs. 12 times for US) and yields (4.3% for Canadian and 2.7% for US).
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General Market Comment
January 8, 2020
CDN vs US financials? He thinks in terms of valuations it is in favour of Canadian financials based on price to cash (9.9 times for Canadian vs. 12 times for US) and yields (4.3% for Canadian and 2.7% for US).
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 8, 2020
Canadian vs US Large Caps? Last year the US outperformed Canadian due to energy being held back. The US is strong in industrial and consumer staples -- Canada is lacking that. In the current environment, global economies have been lagging and there is growing interest again in materials and energy. This could lean things back towards Canada perhaps.
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General Market Comment
January 8, 2020
Canadian vs US Large Caps? Last year the US outperformed Canadian due to energy being held back. The US is strong in industrial and consumer staples -- Canada is lacking that. In the current environment, global economies have been lagging and there is growing interest again in materials and energy. This could lean things back towards Canada perhaps.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 8, 2020
We had an incredible 2019. If the Fed, EU and Japan keep interest rates low, the markets will chug along. Expect volatility, a rollercoaster, and earnings growth of 2%. Stock prices will rise accordingly. ESG investing will be a rising force in 2020 and years to come.
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General Market Comment
January 8, 2020
We had an incredible 2019. If the Fed, EU and Japan keep interest rates low, the markets will chug along. Expect volatility, a rollercoaster, and earnings growth of 2%. Stock prices will rise accordingly. ESG investing will be a rising force in 2020 and years to come.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 8, 2020
The rise of ESG in 2020 Asset managers are facing more pressure to invest in ESG in 2020. ESG is responsible investing, and this is becoming a big thing. Are companies you invest in doing the right thing? This will be a big theme in coming years, because climate change is so prominent.
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General Market Comment
January 8, 2020
The rise of ESG in 2020 Asset managers are facing more pressure to invest in ESG in 2020. ESG is responsible investing, and this is becoming a big thing. Are companies you invest in doing the right thing? This will be a big theme in coming years, because climate change is so prominent.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 7, 2020
This is a good time to be in the markets, following the Santa Claus Rally, then continues to do well into May. But expect volatility and a pullback(s). Recent chart movement bodes well. January means the small-cap effect when they outperform large-caps into February, but this isn't happening this year. Large caps still rule. Cannabis hasn't bounced back yet, which is surprising, following December tax-loss selling.
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General Market Comment
January 7, 2020
This is a good time to be in the markets, following the Santa Claus Rally, then continues to do well into May. But expect volatility and a pullback(s). Recent chart movement bodes well. January means the small-cap effect when they outperform large-caps into February, but this isn't happening this year. Large caps still rule. Cannabis hasn't bounced back yet, which is surprising, following December tax-loss selling.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 7, 2020
If the Dow drops down to 27,500, then the bull market for 2020 is off. The wild card of the Iran-US war is something to watch closely.
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General Market Comment
January 7, 2020
If the Dow drops down to 27,500, then the bull market for 2020 is off. The wild card of the Iran-US war is something to watch closely.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 7, 2020
This year will be interesting as this is the year that Trump will try everything to get re-elected. However, he doesn't think there will be direct conflict as there is too much to lose. It will likely be a surrogate war.
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General Market Comment
January 7, 2020
This year will be interesting as this is the year that Trump will try everything to get re-elected. However, he doesn't think there will be direct conflict as there is too much to lose. It will likely be a surrogate war.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 7, 2020
Last year, there was volatility with the US-China war that has made a lot of money for those that have rode the waves. The Feds are on the side of Trump in the sense of quantitative easing. The phase I deal is to be signed but there is scant information.
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General Market Comment
January 7, 2020
Last year, there was volatility with the US-China war that has made a lot of money for those that have rode the waves. The Feds are on the side of Trump in the sense of quantitative easing. The phase I deal is to be signed but there is scant information.
N/A
N/A
January 6, 2020
Market. Geopolitical risk was as high as it has ever been prior to this most recent event. That even creates uncertainty but it is not a reason to buy stocks on dips. We are in a political world and Trump elevates that. Will he make a choice to do something that would keep the impeachment out of the headlines. People may be discounting this event too much and it may become more of an event than people think. In the US it is show me the money time and unless there is meaningful growth in earnings, then there is no reason to buy the dips. Interest rates are low but it does not make stocks a bullish bet. Gold has received a big lift. See his Educational Segment. If we can break out from these resistance points it could mean $1800 or $1900. The US/China trade we should get a signatory event but we should not get a phase II this year and maybe with a different leading in the US. He thinks Trump will not win the election.
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General Market Comment
January 6, 2020
Market. Geopolitical risk was as high as it has ever been prior to this most recent event. That even creates uncertainty but it is not a reason to buy stocks on dips. We are in a political world and Trump elevates that. Will he make a choice to do something that would keep the impeachment out of the headlines. People may be discounting this event too much and it may become more of an event than people think. In the US it is show me the money time and unless there is meaningful growth in earnings, then there is no reason to buy the dips. Interest rates are low but it does not make stocks a bullish bet. Gold has received a big lift. See his Educational Segment. If we can break out from these resistance points it could mean $1800 or $1900. The US/China trade we should get a signatory event but we should not get a phase II this year and maybe with a different leading in the US. He thinks Trump will not win the election.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 6, 2020
Shorting Corporate Bonds – An ETF Recommendation? The riskiest part of the market is the high yield market. SJB-N is the riskiest of the corporate high yield bonds – junk bonds. The challenge is that you have to pay the yield when you are short – about 5% on average. It is expensive to be short high yield.
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General Market Comment
January 6, 2020
Shorting Corporate Bonds – An ETF Recommendation? The riskiest part of the market is the high yield market. SJB-N is the riskiest of the corporate high yield bonds – junk bonds. The challenge is that you have to pay the yield when you are short – about 5% on average. It is expensive to be short high yield.
BUY
BUY
January 6, 2020
Sleep at Night Portfolio – If Larry retires, is it safe? If the market went bear, his portfolios would not go down. When the markets are at a high point and don’t look good, his fund goes down but not as much as the market. When he retires, there will be a strong team in place to replace him. His intelligence is being taken into an artificial intelligence process.
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General Market Comment
January 6, 2020
Sleep at Night Portfolio – If Larry retires, is it safe? If the market went bear, his portfolios would not go down. When the markets are at a high point and don’t look good, his fund goes down but not as much as the market. When he retires, there will be a strong team in place to replace him. His intelligence is being taken into an artificial intelligence process.
N/A
N/A
January 6, 2020
Inversion of interest rate curve and does that now reduce recession risk. When the FED starts to cut rates that will uninvert the rate curve. If we were worried about recession then long rates would be skyrocketing and they are not. They are relatively contained. It speaks to economic weakness. The economy is not going to be rip-roaring strong here.
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General Market Comment
January 6, 2020
Inversion of interest rate curve and does that now reduce recession risk. When the FED starts to cut rates that will uninvert the rate curve. If we were worried about recession then long rates would be skyrocketing and they are not. They are relatively contained. It speaks to economic weakness. The economy is not going to be rip-roaring strong here.
N/A
N/A
January 6, 2020
Educational Segment. When he is building portfolios, he is looking for assets that are uncorrelated so he can reduce risk. This is the most important thing if you are taking the sleep-at-night approach. Gold still stands out to him as one of the best asset classes of 2020. He thinks gold still has some upside potential. Monetary policy has not worked well in driving economic growth so it will shift to fiscal policy which will demand that more quantitative easing will have to occur. Jewelry demand is an offset to demand. ETF (investor) demand and central bank demand for gold are the two main points. Investor holdings are the biggest demand for gold. We are back to the level of 2012. That was sparked by QE2 and now we are back to that resistance. If we break through that, there is no resistance to above $1800. He loves the asset class here. Equities give you a 2:1 upside to the commodity price.
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General Market Comment
January 6, 2020
Educational Segment. When he is building portfolios, he is looking for assets that are uncorrelated so he can reduce risk. This is the most important thing if you are taking the sleep-at-night approach. Gold still stands out to him as one of the best asset classes of 2020. He thinks gold still has some upside potential. Monetary policy has not worked well in driving economic growth so it will shift to fiscal policy which will demand that more quantitative easing will have to occur. Jewelry demand is an offset to demand. ETF (investor) demand and central bank demand for gold are the two main points. Investor holdings are the biggest demand for gold. We are back to the level of 2012. That was sparked by QE2 and now we are back to that resistance. If we break through that, there is no resistance to above $1800. He loves the asset class here. Equities give you a 2:1 upside to the commodity price.
N/A
N/A
January 6, 2020
Market. We had a list of concerns going into the new year. Trump is not the normal protocol and adds risk relative to norm and we are seeing it play out early in 2020. It is a low interest rate environment and so Mr. Bushell likes dividends. There is no impetus to inflation. You want to be overweight equities. Typically banks don’t underperform for two years in a row, although he thinks that will become more common in the future.
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General Market Comment
January 6, 2020
Market. We had a list of concerns going into the new year. Trump is not the normal protocol and adds risk relative to norm and we are seeing it play out early in 2020. It is a low interest rate environment and so Mr. Bushell likes dividends. There is no impetus to inflation. You want to be overweight equities. Typically banks don’t underperform for two years in a row, although he thinks that will become more common in the future.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 6, 2020
He doesn't follow geopolitics, though he has personal concerns about Iran. Point is, it's noise and it's not a factor in his investing. Gold does well in times of perceived and real war. Gold has had a strong day. His market concern is systemic. The Shiller PE Ratio: PE today is the same as before the market crashed in 1929. The market is frothy, 30% overvalued in Canada, and 50% in America--way above historic averages. "Irrational confidence" explains the current market which is expensive. There's real risk here.
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General Market Comment
January 6, 2020
He doesn't follow geopolitics, though he has personal concerns about Iran. Point is, it's noise and it's not a factor in his investing. Gold does well in times of perceived and real war. Gold has had a strong day. His market concern is systemic. The Shiller PE Ratio: PE today is the same as before the market crashed in 1929. The market is frothy, 30% overvalued in Canada, and 50% in America--way above historic averages. "Irrational confidence" explains the current market which is expensive. There's real risk here.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 6, 2020
A protection strategy assuming a 20% correction before spring? Things can get ugly before they get profit. First, take profits after a fantastic 2019, then reposition your stocks/bonds ratio, buying more bonds to make your target mix (i.e. 70/30 stocks/bonds). Himself, he's moving a third of his equities into inverse products--like an ETF that rises when markets fall (see his top picks). Investors really feel the pain of a drawdown--people are emotional and irrational. So, probably in the next two years, the market will fall and an inverse product will go up. This is playing defence.
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General Market Comment
January 6, 2020
A protection strategy assuming a 20% correction before spring? Things can get ugly before they get profit. First, take profits after a fantastic 2019, then reposition your stocks/bonds ratio, buying more bonds to make your target mix (i.e. 70/30 stocks/bonds). Himself, he's moving a third of his equities into inverse products--like an ETF that rises when markets fall (see his top picks). Investors really feel the pain of a drawdown--people are emotional and irrational. So, probably in the next two years, the market will fall and an inverse product will go up. This is playing defence.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 6, 2020
When to use Norbert's Gambit when buying long-term ETFs? [https://www.millennial-revolution.com/invest/norberts-gambit-how-to-exchange-money-without-paying-fees/] On the bond side he uses a global bond product that's currency-hedged, but won't use a hedge on the equity side. Likely, the Canadian dollar will be high around 80 cents and will revert to the mean at 70--those are the goal posts.
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General Market Comment
January 6, 2020
When to use Norbert's Gambit when buying long-term ETFs? [https://www.millennial-revolution.com/invest/norberts-gambit-how-to-exchange-money-without-paying-fees/] On the bond side he uses a global bond product that's currency-hedged, but won't use a hedge on the equity side. Likely, the Canadian dollar will be high around 80 cents and will revert to the mean at 70--those are the goal posts.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 6, 2020
Cannabis stocks already corrected, but you say markets are 30-50% overvalued. So, what'll happen to weed stocks? If the market drops 20%, few stocks/sectors will survive that (most will fall 20%) and cannabis likely will too. It's still early innings for cannabis.
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General Market Comment
January 6, 2020
Cannabis stocks already corrected, but you say markets are 30-50% overvalued. So, what'll happen to weed stocks? If the market drops 20%, few stocks/sectors will survive that (most will fall 20%) and cannabis likely will too. It's still early innings for cannabis.
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