A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 25, 2020
Monetary policy-makers have been responding to crises over the years (i.e. trade wars). Economic growth should stabilize in the second half of 2020. Don't be skittish about the current sell-off and virus outbreak. Keeping looking long-term and buy the dip. This is the first pandemic during social media (not even SARS); history tells us these are short-term crises, and we live in an age of so much information. China, you could say, has over-reacted (which is good). The bond market has gone crazy as investors flock to safety, but bonds are priced for stagnation. Crazy flows into bonds, partly because of a hangover from the 2008 recession.
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General Market Comment
February 25, 2020
Monetary policy-makers have been responding to crises over the years (i.e. trade wars). Economic growth should stabilize in the second half of 2020. Don't be skittish about the current sell-off and virus outbreak. Keeping looking long-term and buy the dip. This is the first pandemic during social media (not even SARS); history tells us these are short-term crises, and we live in an age of so much information. China, you could say, has over-reacted (which is good). The bond market has gone crazy as investors flock to safety, but bonds are priced for stagnation. Crazy flows into bonds, partly because of a hangover from the 2008 recession.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 25, 2020
He's not worried about the sell-off today or yesterday. The markets have run up with rich valuations, after all. Markets always look for a good excuse to correct. A health scare is one of the least fearful market events; the 2008 recession was worse, because the problem and cause were systemic. This outbreak will come and go like past ones. Markets are reacting badly because we don't know where the virus will go. Remember: the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19 killed many more people than this disease--this disease will eventually pass. Scare-mongering is part of the human condition. Breaking news: Disney's CEO is stepping down. He owns their stock. The news surprises him and the market. Bob Iger did a fantastic job, but there's no need to panic over his departure. The market will digest this news and accept it.
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General Market Comment
February 25, 2020
He's not worried about the sell-off today or yesterday. The markets have run up with rich valuations, after all. Markets always look for a good excuse to correct. A health scare is one of the least fearful market events; the 2008 recession was worse, because the problem and cause were systemic. This outbreak will come and go like past ones. Markets are reacting badly because we don't know where the virus will go. Remember: the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19 killed many more people than this disease--this disease will eventually pass. Scare-mongering is part of the human condition. Breaking news: Disney's CEO is stepping down. He owns their stock. The news surprises him and the market. Bob Iger did a fantastic job, but there's no need to panic over his departure. The market will digest this news and accept it.
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February 24, 2020
Market. Bernie Sanders jumped up to the commanding lead for the US democrats. Even if he can't work, his policies are so draconian in terms of risk that it is a bigger risk than the corona virus affect on supply chains. A study Larry read said that about a third of good consumed in the world touch China, Japan and South Korea once. If those supply chains are broken… Half the people aren't working. The supply chains are broken and right now they are eating through inventory. He thinks it will be months before this all plays out in the world. Lower interest rates cannot help this.
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General Market Comment
February 24, 2020
Market. Bernie Sanders jumped up to the commanding lead for the US democrats. Even if he can't work, his policies are so draconian in terms of risk that it is a bigger risk than the corona virus affect on supply chains. A study Larry read said that about a third of good consumed in the world touch China, Japan and South Korea once. If those supply chains are broken… Half the people aren't working. The supply chains are broken and right now they are eating through inventory. He thinks it will be months before this all plays out in the world. Lower interest rates cannot help this.
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February 24, 2020
Perpetual preferreds are down today. One issue can be that the basket of shares are being sold. Perpetual preferreds are more like bonds. It could also be credit spreads.
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General Market Comment
February 24, 2020
Perpetual preferreds are down today. One issue can be that the basket of shares are being sold. Perpetual preferreds are more like bonds. It could also be credit spreads.
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February 24, 2020
Gold Exit Strategy. Gold has a long runway here but will not go straight up. You could scale out when it reaches highs. He thinks previous highs will be tested. The world is headed to a place where they will literally be printing money to pay for things. Reduce your position to gold and then buy into dips.
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General Market Comment
February 24, 2020
Gold Exit Strategy. Gold has a long runway here but will not go straight up. You could scale out when it reaches highs. He thinks previous highs will be tested. The world is headed to a place where they will literally be printing money to pay for things. Reduce your position to gold and then buy into dips.
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February 24, 2020
Educational Segment. The Corona Virus. People have no idea how this I going to play out. Unlike SARS, we are at market highs. Corona is way bigger than the market thinks.
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General Market Comment
February 24, 2020
Educational Segment. The Corona Virus. People have no idea how this I going to play out. Unlike SARS, we are at market highs. Corona is way bigger than the market thinks.
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February 24, 2020
Market. For the past few years it has been buy the dips on these kinds of reactions. The market is expensive so you will never be able to catch the bottom. The market was looking for an excuse to blow off some steam. You might want to nibble a bit but it is probably not over yet. The volatility will probably persist. He would be careful of companies with too much dependence on China. Defensive names, telecom, renewable energy, and utilities could be bought on dips but it is on a case by case basis.
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General Market Comment
February 24, 2020
Market. For the past few years it has been buy the dips on these kinds of reactions. The market is expensive so you will never be able to catch the bottom. The market was looking for an excuse to blow off some steam. You might want to nibble a bit but it is probably not over yet. The volatility will probably persist. He would be careful of companies with too much dependence on China. Defensive names, telecom, renewable energy, and utilities could be bought on dips but it is on a case by case basis.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 24, 2020
Each correction is different, depending on how deep it goes and for how long. In the past month, sure we've hit highs but below that things are murky. The TSX held up better because of our big financial component. He doesn't see the TSX correcting that much. Gold went up, but the US dollar failed to and is starting to roll over. Oil recently bottomed and today it sold off, but its outlook is looking better. Gold has spiked and went up today, though there wasn't a rush to the US dollar. After gold's spiky move of late, he expects it to come back a little. He expects another wide market sell-off Tuesday. Doesn't expect more QE, because the market fundamentals remain strong. The US treasury yield hit $1.37 today which is the floor, the September 2019 low. Based on past bottoms, the yield should rise from here.
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General Market Comment
February 24, 2020
Each correction is different, depending on how deep it goes and for how long. In the past month, sure we've hit highs but below that things are murky. The TSX held up better because of our big financial component. He doesn't see the TSX correcting that much. Gold went up, but the US dollar failed to and is starting to roll over. Oil recently bottomed and today it sold off, but its outlook is looking better. Gold has spiked and went up today, though there wasn't a rush to the US dollar. After gold's spiky move of late, he expects it to come back a little. He expects another wide market sell-off Tuesday. Doesn't expect more QE, because the market fundamentals remain strong. The US treasury yield hit $1.37 today which is the floor, the September 2019 low. Based on past bottoms, the yield should rise from here.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 24, 2020
What indicators do you use for technical analysis? One isn't enough. Actually, some of the best traders use just one indicator like the 200-day moving average. He likes the RSI vs. the index, a simple--is my stock rising against the index? He also likes the Williams %R (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/williamsr.asp). If one indicator works, then that's fine.
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General Market Comment
February 24, 2020
What indicators do you use for technical analysis? One isn't enough. Actually, some of the best traders use just one indicator like the 200-day moving average. He likes the RSI vs. the index, a simple--is my stock rising against the index? He also likes the Williams %R (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/williamsr.asp). If one indicator works, then that's fine.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 21, 2020

Market Outlook He thinks the impact of Coronavirus is bigger than what some may be thinking, based on the numbers of those infected keep rising. He thinks the Fed Reserve will continue to provide stimulus and expects we may see the Chinese government follow suit as well. They have been keeping cash on the sidelines in case the "V" recovery that many expect does not materialize. If supplies are constrained, how will this impact demand for commodities and for Asian products?

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General Market Comment
February 21, 2020

Market Outlook He thinks the impact of Coronavirus is bigger than what some may be thinking, based on the numbers of those infected keep rising. He thinks the Fed Reserve will continue to provide stimulus and expects we may see the Chinese government follow suit as well. They have been keeping cash on the sidelines in case the "V" recovery that many expect does not materialize. If supplies are constrained, how will this impact demand for commodities and for Asian products?

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 21, 2020
He wasn't concerned about the coronavirus, but now he's seeing more stress in the global supply chain. Everything's being produced in China and it's being cut out. There will be some supply chain issues that will arise. It will be good for gold since it will be a slow-down.
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General Market Comment
February 21, 2020
He wasn't concerned about the coronavirus, but now he's seeing more stress in the global supply chain. Everything's being produced in China and it's being cut out. There will be some supply chain issues that will arise. It will be good for gold since it will be a slow-down.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 21, 2020
Gold and precious metals is a good place to be in this uncertainty. The safety trade makes a lot of sense. He bearish on the economy but it is nice to see gold rising higher. Gold is the ultimate safe haven for him.
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General Market Comment
February 21, 2020
Gold and precious metals is a good place to be in this uncertainty. The safety trade makes a lot of sense. He bearish on the economy but it is nice to see gold rising higher. Gold is the ultimate safe haven for him.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 21, 2020
He's lost trust in the fed since 2008. At some point, you have to stop printing more money. Ultimate utility of debt will run out and you will have to dip into reserve. He's bullish on gold. He has positions in place and now he is looking at other areas like blockchain that is fascinating. We just crossed the billion threshold for Ethereum based apps.
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General Market Comment
February 21, 2020
He's lost trust in the fed since 2008. At some point, you have to stop printing more money. Ultimate utility of debt will run out and you will have to dip into reserve. He's bullish on gold. He has positions in place and now he is looking at other areas like blockchain that is fascinating. We just crossed the billion threshold for Ethereum based apps.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 21, 2020
The value of the blockchain will grow with the coin. It is a ledger. Blockchain is the solution. Gold and blockchain can coexist together. There's a lack of understanding of what money and currency is and its differences.
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General Market Comment
February 21, 2020
The value of the blockchain will grow with the coin. It is a ledger. Blockchain is the solution. Gold and blockchain can coexist together. There's a lack of understanding of what money and currency is and its differences.
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February 20, 2020
Market. The market is a little bit frothy right now so you expect a little bit of a pause. Then the Corona virus is taking a bit back. We are responding to the FED and the Corona virus. If the economy falters a little bit, the FED will come into the market and try to support it. Morgan Stanley is taking over E-Trade in a multibillion dollar deal in an all stock deal. This is not an opportunity to get in. Is there really going to be that much synergy? And we are at a market top. They are paying a lot for it. The fund he works with is fully invested. We are a couple of months away from where the market seasonally moves into a more unfavourable period. He thinks you need to be a little more defensive now. L-T is perhaps a little too defensive. It is too early for that one. Gold is just finishing its seasonal period of strength. The Corona virus is an unknown. There is a lot of optimism about its being contained at present. There is a greater risk that this is different than SARS.
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General Market Comment
February 20, 2020
Market. The market is a little bit frothy right now so you expect a little bit of a pause. Then the Corona virus is taking a bit back. We are responding to the FED and the Corona virus. If the economy falters a little bit, the FED will come into the market and try to support it. Morgan Stanley is taking over E-Trade in a multibillion dollar deal in an all stock deal. This is not an opportunity to get in. Is there really going to be that much synergy? And we are at a market top. They are paying a lot for it. The fund he works with is fully invested. We are a couple of months away from where the market seasonally moves into a more unfavourable period. He thinks you need to be a little more defensive now. L-T is perhaps a little too defensive. It is too early for that one. Gold is just finishing its seasonal period of strength. The Corona virus is an unknown. There is a lot of optimism about its being contained at present. There is a greater risk that this is different than SARS.
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