A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary

Signal
Opinion
Expert
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October 19, 2020
Earning season just started in the US. Markets are also excited for a stimulus deal, but he doesn't think the dems want to give Trump a win before the election.
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General Market Comment
October 19, 2020
Earning season just started in the US. Markets are also excited for a stimulus deal, but he doesn't think the dems want to give Trump a win before the election.
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October 19, 2020
Government debt. When debt is ramped up, and the debt is non-productive, it is bad for long-term growth perspective. The world is slowing significantly. Growth problems will not change seeing the policy from governments. For the next coupe of years, however, getting people back to work is the priority.
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General Market Comment
October 19, 2020
Government debt. When debt is ramped up, and the debt is non-productive, it is bad for long-term growth perspective. The world is slowing significantly. Growth problems will not change seeing the policy from governments. For the next coupe of years, however, getting people back to work is the priority.
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October 19, 2020
Upside and downside to investing in Canadian dollar hedged ETFs. Foreign exposure ETFs typically have a cost to hedging. With interest rate so low, you actually get paid to hedge against the Euro versus the Canadian dollar. That is because interest rates are lower in Europe than Canada. With regards to the US, it's virtually the same so there is no variance.
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General Market Comment
October 19, 2020
Upside and downside to investing in Canadian dollar hedged ETFs. Foreign exposure ETFs typically have a cost to hedging. With interest rate so low, you actually get paid to hedge against the Euro versus the Canadian dollar. That is because interest rates are lower in Europe than Canada. With regards to the US, it's virtually the same so there is no variance.
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October 19, 2020
Educational Segment. There is an asymmetric risk going into the US election. When looking at the prediction and polls, it still favours a blue wave. However, looking at it on the state level, we probably have more market difficulty post election. We will probably see something like Bush versus Al Gore but worse. Today, the price is more priced for perfection. Looking at the electoral colleges, it's too close to call. If we get grid lock, we will see more battles over things like stimulus that is not priced in.
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General Market Comment
October 19, 2020
Educational Segment. There is an asymmetric risk going into the US election. When looking at the prediction and polls, it still favours a blue wave. However, looking at it on the state level, we probably have more market difficulty post election. We will probably see something like Bush versus Al Gore but worse. Today, the price is more priced for perfection. Looking at the electoral colleges, it's too close to call. If we get grid lock, we will see more battles over things like stimulus that is not priced in.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 19, 2020

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The election might cause extra volatility and tax selling in January for some tech names. The world is not yet normal so holding more cash than normal could be okay depending on your comfort level. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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General Market Comment
October 19, 2020

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The election might cause extra volatility and tax selling in January for some tech names. The world is not yet normal so holding more cash than normal could be okay depending on your comfort level. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 19, 2020
Trader Larry Williams' theory True, Biden is leading in the U.S. election polls, but Williams posits that as long as the Dow holds up above the August lows, the market favours Trump. This is based on the 2020 late-summer rally and continued strength (considering some volatility) to the present. This pattern matches historical charts when the incumbent winning. The year after the incumbent wins, markets rally. If a new president wins, then they are rockier.
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General Market Comment
October 19, 2020
Trader Larry Williams' theory True, Biden is leading in the U.S. election polls, but Williams posits that as long as the Dow holds up above the August lows, the market favours Trump. This is based on the 2020 late-summer rally and continued strength (considering some volatility) to the present. This pattern matches historical charts when the incumbent winning. The year after the incumbent wins, markets rally. If a new president wins, then they are rockier.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 16, 2020
He thinks there is a shot for WTI to rise to $50. The economy is healing quicker than thought. The crude surplus YOY and other fuel demands are compressing. Inventory is falling around the world. Demand is also rising; for example, in India, diesel demand is up 9%.
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General Market Comment
October 16, 2020
He thinks there is a shot for WTI to rise to $50. The economy is healing quicker than thought. The crude surplus YOY and other fuel demands are compressing. Inventory is falling around the world. Demand is also rising; for example, in India, diesel demand is up 9%.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 16, 2020
U.S. Shale. The US shale story is over. They will never surpass the high watermark of 13M barrel per day. It negates US growth. Looking at non-US production, we are in the 6th year where we're not investing enough to offset global declines. He is overwhelmingly bullish on oil.
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General Market Comment
October 16, 2020
U.S. Shale. The US shale story is over. They will never surpass the high watermark of 13M barrel per day. It negates US growth. Looking at non-US production, we are in the 6th year where we're not investing enough to offset global declines. He is overwhelmingly bullish on oil.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 16, 2020
He does not believe OPEC will increase production. There is no meaningful reason for a supply response. The additional 2M barrels per day expected in January will not come online either probably.
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General Market Comment
October 16, 2020
He does not believe OPEC will increase production. There is no meaningful reason for a supply response. The additional 2M barrels per day expected in January will not come online either probably.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 16, 2020
Large scale consolidation in energy. Hopefully there will be mergers and acquisitions. There is a management entrenchment problem. The boards or CEOs don't want to transact right now.
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General Market Comment
October 16, 2020
Large scale consolidation in energy. Hopefully there will be mergers and acquisitions. There is a management entrenchment problem. The boards or CEOs don't want to transact right now.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 16, 2020

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Interest in renewable power stems from rapid growth and a belief that traditional carbon energy sources are finished. There is some speculation so one must be careful of valuation. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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General Market Comment
October 16, 2020

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Interest in renewable power stems from rapid growth and a belief that traditional carbon energy sources are finished. There is some speculation so one must be careful of valuation. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 15, 2020
Third day of losses for S&P 500? Tough market right now if you're focused on the short term. October is volatile from the get go. Short-term bounce in the US dollar has brought a deflationary tilt to the current market, with its negative correlation to equities and commodities. Overall, sit back and try to look beyond the next few weeks, and you'll be rewarded by maintaining a solid weight in equities.
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General Market Comment
October 15, 2020
Third day of losses for S&P 500? Tough market right now if you're focused on the short term. October is volatile from the get go. Short-term bounce in the US dollar has brought a deflationary tilt to the current market, with its negative correlation to equities and commodities. Overall, sit back and try to look beyond the next few weeks, and you'll be rewarded by maintaining a solid weight in equities.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 15, 2020
How are you positioning in this environment? Traditional retail is definitely an area he doesn't want to focus on. Companies with a broader online channel, like Nike, will hold up very well. Broadly, he's not shying away from tech that's focused on the consumer or collaborative communication. You want a bit of a balance of growth and value.
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General Market Comment
October 15, 2020
How are you positioning in this environment? Traditional retail is definitely an area he doesn't want to focus on. Companies with a broader online channel, like Nike, will hold up very well. Broadly, he's not shying away from tech that's focused on the consumer or collaborative communication. You want a bit of a balance of growth and value.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 15, 2020
CAD vs. US dollar. Caught a lot of people off guard that the CAD has rallied as much as it has. The USD has been on an elevator down until recently. A lot will depend whether there's a continued rally in the USD, which will continue to depress the CAD. Sectors in Canada are struggling, so it's hard to be super bullish on the CAD. He's been buying US positions which will be a tailwind to portfolios in the years ahead.
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General Market Comment
October 15, 2020
CAD vs. US dollar. Caught a lot of people off guard that the CAD has rallied as much as it has. The USD has been on an elevator down until recently. A lot will depend whether there's a continued rally in the USD, which will continue to depress the CAD. Sectors in Canada are struggling, so it's hard to be super bullish on the CAD. He's been buying US positions which will be a tailwind to portfolios in the years ahead.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 15, 2020
Could the BoC's credibility come into question as a tool of the Liberal government? Sure, but you have to do whatever you can to help those in need and it's serving to keep the economy propped up.
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General Market Comment
October 15, 2020
Could the BoC's credibility come into question as a tool of the Liberal government? Sure, but you have to do whatever you can to help those in need and it's serving to keep the economy propped up.
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