A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary

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Opinion
Expert
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August 7, 2020
A remarkable run since the March lows. Deploying capital was easier then. Now, it's harder to find easier investment opportunities. Move in the real interest rates and pullback of the USD makes a case for gold. They are still focusing on North American equities.
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A remarkable run since the March lows. Deploying capital was easier then. Now, it's harder to find easier investment opportunities. Move in the real interest rates and pullback of the USD makes a case for gold. They are still focusing on North American equities.
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August 7, 2020
Healthcare. He's not a healthcare specialist but there are opportunities in digital health and life sciences. In terms of covid vaccines, they aren't banking on one specific firm. They are focusing on large cap players in the healthcare sector.
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Healthcare. He's not a healthcare specialist but there are opportunities in digital health and life sciences. In terms of covid vaccines, they aren't banking on one specific firm. They are focusing on large cap players in the healthcare sector.
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August 7, 2020
Jobs report. Overall numbers were better than expected. The job recovery was always going to be slow. We should not expect a V shaped recovery. In the US, the number of permanent unemployment remained constant. The flexible and furlough are coming back, but there is still a large number of turnover. Markets are back to all time highs thanks to stimulus, which is remarkable.
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Jobs report. Overall numbers were better than expected. The job recovery was always going to be slow. We should not expect a V shaped recovery. In the US, the number of permanent unemployment remained constant. The flexible and furlough are coming back, but there is still a large number of turnover. Markets are back to all time highs thanks to stimulus, which is remarkable.
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August 7, 2020
US Government Stimulus. There is no hard deadline for coming up with a stimulus program. However, the consumer will feel the impact of delays. He expects a deal next week at around a trillion dollars.
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US Government Stimulus. There is no hard deadline for coming up with a stimulus program. However, the consumer will feel the impact of delays. He expects a deal next week at around a trillion dollars.
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August 7, 2020
US and China Relations. The relation will probably continue to deteriorate. The battle with China will be measured in the next couple decades. The battle is about reserve currency status and technological dominance. The democrats want to take a different strategy by opening up dialogue with China. The fact that the economy is only working because of stimulus is a cause of concern.
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US and China Relations. The relation will probably continue to deteriorate. The battle with China will be measured in the next couple decades. The battle is about reserve currency status and technological dominance. The democrats want to take a different strategy by opening up dialogue with China. The fact that the economy is only working because of stimulus is a cause of concern.
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August 7, 2020
Energy. We're past the best-before date for carbon energy. Every peak will be lower than the last. He would reduce traditional energy sources and go into clean energy to play the sector.
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Energy. We're past the best-before date for carbon energy. Every peak will be lower than the last. He would reduce traditional energy sources and go into clean energy to play the sector.
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August 7, 2020
Educational segment. We're going to start getting results of the vaccine towards October. We will have an understanding of the efficacy of these vaccines before the elections. There is tremendous hope priced into markets. There is a high possibility that Trump will lose, but the most interesting elections will be in the senate. There are some swing states that will affect the senate greatly. The markets are melting up because of FOMO but there is more volatility and uncertainty looking ahead.
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Educational segment. We're going to start getting results of the vaccine towards October. We will have an understanding of the efficacy of these vaccines before the elections. There is tremendous hope priced into markets. There is a high possibility that Trump will lose, but the most interesting elections will be in the senate. There are some swing states that will affect the senate greatly. The markets are melting up because of FOMO but there is more volatility and uncertainty looking ahead.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 6, 2020
We're on the cusp of a new bull market for oil? Once we emerge from the Covid destruction, we'll exit this year about 4% below prior conditions. It's all about supply. The last 5 years have revolved around US shale. But due to shutting of external sources of funding and investor apathy, shale companies are aiming to grow at most 5% a year. The world relies on US shale, so the future is very different from the past. Saudi remains with a budget deficit on the price of oil. We can get back to $60 oil next year.
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We're on the cusp of a new bull market for oil? Once we emerge from the Covid destruction, we'll exit this year about 4% below prior conditions. It's all about supply. The last 5 years have revolved around US shale. But due to shutting of external sources of funding and investor apathy, shale companies are aiming to grow at most 5% a year. The world relies on US shale, so the future is very different from the past. Saudi remains with a budget deficit on the price of oil. We can get back to $60 oil next year.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 6, 2020
The biggest opportunities are in Canadian small and mid cap names? Going forward, investors don't want growth of capital. They want dividends and share buybacks. Low debt levels and low corporate decline rates let them do this. Canada shines in this area. Already seeing capital flow back to Canada. Conditions in a few months will be tighter. His fund is 100% invested in Canada right now.
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The biggest opportunities are in Canadian small and mid cap names? Going forward, investors don't want growth of capital. They want dividends and share buybacks. Low debt levels and low corporate decline rates let them do this. Canada shines in this area. Already seeing capital flow back to Canada. Conditions in a few months will be tighter. His fund is 100% invested in Canada right now.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 5, 2020
What do you make of the markets? There's a bifurcation between the economy and the stock market. The economy is slowly improving, but the markets are at all time highs. But that's not the whole story. The S&P peaked on June 8 with the non-farm payroll, and if you take out the top 6 runaway stocks, the remaining S&P 494 are below that peak.
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What do you make of the markets? There's a bifurcation between the economy and the stock market. The economy is slowly improving, but the markets are at all time highs. But that's not the whole story. The S&P peaked on June 8 with the non-farm payroll, and if you take out the top 6 runaway stocks, the remaining S&P 494 are below that peak.
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COMMENT
August 5, 2020
What do you think about big tech? No question, they've done really well. But it's a very crowded trade, so it's becoming extremely expensive. Watch when tech starts to underperform, as that could be a sign that the global market is in trouble. The market doesn't like the anxiety of an election. Usually, the markets dip down from September to November. Investors should be cautious.
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What do you think about big tech? No question, they've done really well. But it's a very crowded trade, so it's becoming extremely expensive. Watch when tech starts to underperform, as that could be a sign that the global market is in trouble. The market doesn't like the anxiety of an election. Usually, the markets dip down from September to November. Investors should be cautious.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 5, 2020
Where is the US dollar going? You're always making two decisions: the currency and the stock. Converting CAD to US dollars means you're expecting the US dollar to go up. That's not for the average investor. You want to have a macro picture. US dollar has gone down recently, and is very oversold, so we might see a bounce with the non-farm payroll on Friday.
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Where is the US dollar going? You're always making two decisions: the currency and the stock. Converting CAD to US dollars means you're expecting the US dollar to go up. That's not for the average investor. You want to have a macro picture. US dollar has gone down recently, and is very oversold, so we might see a bounce with the non-farm payroll on Friday.
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August 5, 2020
A good time to buy a partial position in natural gas? Nat gas had a huge move in the last week. Inventories are lower than normal, plus the storm on the East Coast. With commodities, they can really go. Seasonal period is September, so look at that as an entry date. Before that, look to see if it's oversold. He's waiting right now, either for a pullback or for seasonality to start. A lot of positives for natural gas.
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A good time to buy a partial position in natural gas? Nat gas had a huge move in the last week. Inventories are lower than normal, plus the storm on the East Coast. With commodities, they can really go. Seasonal period is September, so look at that as an entry date. Before that, look to see if it's oversold. He's waiting right now, either for a pullback or for seasonality to start. A lot of positives for natural gas.
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COMMENT
August 5, 2020
Invest in gold? He watches both gold and the miners. They've all run up a lot. Start with an ETF of gold stocks, such as XGD, GDX or GDXJ. If the market were to correct sharply, the miners can go down quickly, so you have to be careful. Be careful with the miners, as they've run up so much. This is the seasonality for gold miners, and they've performed well.
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Invest in gold? He watches both gold and the miners. They've all run up a lot. Start with an ETF of gold stocks, such as XGD, GDX or GDXJ. If the market were to correct sharply, the miners can go down quickly, so you have to be careful. Be careful with the miners, as they've run up so much. This is the seasonality for gold miners, and they've performed well.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 4, 2020
Earnings seasons and double-digit profit declines (i.e. Air Canada): earnings are dreadful or not as bad as feared, depending on your expectations. Anyway, he's conditioned for earnings to be down a lot, and forecasts were slashed earlier. It's a market of winners vs. losers. Winners: big tech mostly in the U.S. and Shopify here, and gold stocks. Losers: banks struggling with loan loss provisions, and oil given low prices. The gold rally is legit and it's onwards and upwards--gold rallies in troubles times and now certainly is. We'll see Canadian Q3 banks report later this month; banks will be pressured by narrow interest margins and of course loan loss provisions, though business loan deferrals may cushion the blow.
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Earnings seasons and double-digit profit declines (i.e. Air Canada): earnings are dreadful or not as bad as feared, depending on your expectations. Anyway, he's conditioned for earnings to be down a lot, and forecasts were slashed earlier. It's a market of winners vs. losers. Winners: big tech mostly in the U.S. and Shopify here, and gold stocks. Losers: banks struggling with loan loss provisions, and oil given low prices. The gold rally is legit and it's onwards and upwards--gold rallies in troubles times and now certainly is. We'll see Canadian Q3 banks report later this month; banks will be pressured by narrow interest margins and of course loan loss provisions, though business loan deferrals may cushion the blow.
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COMMENT
August 4, 2020
We continue this week with the Stockchase Research "Top Picks". This service provides a look into the latest analyst recommendations along with our own additional insights. As the market reaches higher, it is getting more challenging to identify candidates that provide safe entries. We add some technical suggestions on entries and stop loss levels. Today we focus on a semiconductor technology company, a suggestion for a Cloud-based ETF, and a medical device company.
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We continue this week with the Stockchase Research "Top Picks". This service provides a look into the latest analyst recommendations along with our own additional insights. As the market reaches higher, it is getting more challenging to identify candidates that provide safe entries. We add some technical suggestions on entries and stop loss levels. Today we focus on a semiconductor technology company, a suggestion for a Cloud-based ETF, and a medical device company.
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July 31, 2020
The stock market is going up, with the S&P up 8% ytd. It's a fallacy that the stock market and the economy moves hand in hand. The market is significantly undervalued taking into consideration the interest rates going to zero. Earnings for tech companies are growing, and he is bullish on good quality companies.
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The stock market is going up, with the S&P up 8% ytd. It's a fallacy that the stock market and the economy moves hand in hand. The market is significantly undervalued taking into consideration the interest rates going to zero. Earnings for tech companies are growing, and he is bullish on good quality companies.
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July 31, 2020
There is uncertainty with COVID, but there will always be cause of worries regardless. Looking at earnings being reported by companies like Apple, he thinks it is still undervalued. Chose good quality companies, and it should be alright.
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There is uncertainty with COVID, but there will always be cause of worries regardless. Looking at earnings being reported by companies like Apple, he thinks it is still undervalued. Chose good quality companies, and it should be alright.
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July 31, 2020
US Debt. He believes it's been a long time coming for worries over US debt. If the USD wasn't the currency reserve of the world, it should be trading at AA-. They had to start printing money and it's been decades in the making. It won't mean much for market response until the rating drops by a couple firms.
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US Debt. He believes it's been a long time coming for worries over US debt. If the USD wasn't the currency reserve of the world, it should be trading at AA-. They had to start printing money and it's been decades in the making. It won't mean much for market response until the rating drops by a couple firms.
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July 31, 2020
Tech earnings. The market was delighted for earnings. For Facebook, the backing away of many companies from the social media site has not affected the earnings so much. The firms with data will be hit hardest by anti-trust, like Google or Facebook. He expects some pain coming.
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Tech earnings. The market was delighted for earnings. For Facebook, the backing away of many companies from the social media site has not affected the earnings so much. The firms with data will be hit hardest by anti-trust, like Google or Facebook. He expects some pain coming.
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July 31, 2020
Market performance. The S&P 500 was up 1.7% on the week. It's been an okay week. We now have 3/4 of the large cap stocks report. There is a 30-35% of Russell 2000 small caps reporting their earnings next week. The pain is more in the small cap.
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Market performance. The S&P 500 was up 1.7% on the week. It's been an okay week. We now have 3/4 of the large cap stocks report. There is a 30-35% of Russell 2000 small caps reporting their earnings next week. The pain is more in the small cap.
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July 31, 2020
Educational segment. Back in 2014, he said that gold was broken for a little while. Central bank money printing hadn't played out yet. In 2018, he changed his tune as the Federal Reserves rose rates. In 2019, we saw a breakout from $1,400. Fundamentally, for gold prices to go up, you need investment demands. There is an increase in investment demand and a massive decrease in the jewellery demand now. With real yield going negative, gold is a no-brainer. He expects inflation in the USD. He expects 10-40% upside on an inflation adjusted basis for gold. Lots of upside for gold.
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Educational segment. Back in 2014, he said that gold was broken for a little while. Central bank money printing hadn't played out yet. In 2018, he changed his tune as the Federal Reserves rose rates. In 2019, we saw a breakout from $1,400. Fundamentally, for gold prices to go up, you need investment demands. There is an increase in investment demand and a massive decrease in the jewellery demand now. With real yield going negative, gold is a no-brainer. He expects inflation in the USD. He expects 10-40% upside on an inflation adjusted basis for gold. Lots of upside for gold.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2020
Hello, I'm Michael O'Reilly-- Stockchase Research editor. This week we begin reporting "Stockchase Research Top Picks" and will do so every Tuesday and Thursday. These picks focus on newly released institutional analyst opinions and targets along with our own additional insights. Today's Top Picks focus on a Warren Buffet favorite, a defensive strategy and a household favorite. Enjoy!
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Hello, I'm Michael O'Reilly-- Stockchase Research editor. This week we begin reporting "Stockchase Research Top Picks" and will do so every Tuesday and Thursday. These picks focus on newly released institutional analyst opinions and targets along with our own additional insights. Today's Top Picks focus on a Warren Buffet favorite, a defensive strategy and a household favorite. Enjoy!
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2020
Shares coming under pressure today due to drop in the US GDP. There's been a huge run up. US stimulus payments end today, and that's a challenge. People working from home, lower consumption of energy, and less restaurant traffic are taking a toll on the GDP.
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Shares coming under pressure today due to drop in the US GDP. There's been a huge run up. US stimulus payments end today, and that's a challenge. People working from home, lower consumption of energy, and less restaurant traffic are taking a toll on the GDP.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2020
Behaviour of US dollar related to recessions. Historically, the US dollar has been the standard for global transactions. But the Chinese yuan has taken a bite out of it. Plus fiscal policy has driven interest rates low. These elements are a structural bear on the dollar. The US doesn't have the healthy social safety net that its trading partners do. So the US will experience much deeper recessions than its partners. US dollar will continue to weaken if the full impact of Covid continues to affect the US.
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Behaviour of US dollar related to recessions. Historically, the US dollar has been the standard for global transactions. But the Chinese yuan has taken a bite out of it. Plus fiscal policy has driven interest rates low. These elements are a structural bear on the dollar. The US doesn't have the healthy social safety net that its trading partners do. So the US will experience much deeper recessions than its partners. US dollar will continue to weaken if the full impact of Covid continues to affect the US.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2020
Where to allocate capital? If currency were your only consideration, you'd redeem some of your US assets and put the money into areas like China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Recovery in those markets will benefit you, and then you cycle back into the US when it falls to a low. Global investors cycle their money from strong currencies to weak.
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Where to allocate capital? If currency were your only consideration, you'd redeem some of your US assets and put the money into areas like China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Recovery in those markets will benefit you, and then you cycle back into the US when it falls to a low. Global investors cycle their money from strong currencies to weak.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2020
What stocks on the Australian market can you recommend? BHP has done very, very well. Also South32. Also COH, one of the global leaders in hearing aids, though it's very expensive.
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What stocks on the Australian market can you recommend? BHP has done very, very well. Also South32. Also COH, one of the global leaders in hearing aids, though it's very expensive.
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July 29, 2020
Many of the large cap stocks are trading above their intrinsic values. Rational investors must be careful and look at the fundamentals. He's looking into small and mid cap stocks that are still under valued. There is a large increase in personal investment accounts being open by new investors. These accounts hold investments in many similar companies because they are in the news, and not because of their investment worthiness. He is positive in the market still, especially with lower interest rates expected to hold for a while and government stimulus being injected.
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Many of the large cap stocks are trading above their intrinsic values. Rational investors must be careful and look at the fundamentals. He's looking into small and mid cap stocks that are still under valued. There is a large increase in personal investment accounts being open by new investors. These accounts hold investments in many similar companies because they are in the news, and not because of their investment worthiness. He is positive in the market still, especially with lower interest rates expected to hold for a while and government stimulus being injected.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 28, 2020
It's strange times. Big question: What will the US Congress do with stimulus that's keeping the economy afloat? Will Republicans support working poor people? Many big tech names report on Thursday; it's like the Superbowl. These tech giants have reasonable valuations rooted in reality, so he has no problem with the price run-up of Amazon, Apple, Google, etc. However, Tesla and Shopify share prices are entirely speculative; maybe he'd buy Shopify at a third of the current price.
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It's strange times. Big question: What will the US Congress do with stimulus that's keeping the economy afloat? Will Republicans support working poor people? Many big tech names report on Thursday; it's like the Superbowl. These tech giants have reasonable valuations rooted in reality, so he has no problem with the price run-up of Amazon, Apple, Google, etc. However, Tesla and Shopify share prices are entirely speculative; maybe he'd buy Shopify at a third of the current price.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 28, 2020
Stop losses You tell your broker to sell a stock when it falls to a certain price, useful for traders and speculators but not long-term investors. If you like a stock at $125, you should like it more at $110 and not sell it or even buy more. He never uses stop losses and doesn't recommend them to long-term investors.
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Stop losses You tell your broker to sell a stock when it falls to a certain price, useful for traders and speculators but not long-term investors. If you like a stock at $125, you should like it more at $110 and not sell it or even buy more. He never uses stop losses and doesn't recommend them to long-term investors.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 28, 2020
Hello, I am Michael O'Reilly-- Stockchase Research editor. Today we begin reporting "Stockchase Research Top Picks" and will do so every Tuesday and Thursday. These picks focus on newly released institutional analyst opinions and targets along with our own additional insights. Today's Top Picks focus on the trends in gold, cloud services and 5G, along with home improvement. Enjoy!
Show full opinionHide full opinion
Hello, I am Michael O'Reilly-- Stockchase Research editor. Today we begin reporting "Stockchase Research Top Picks" and will do so every Tuesday and Thursday. These picks focus on newly released institutional analyst opinions and targets along with our own additional insights. Today's Top Picks focus on the trends in gold, cloud services and 5G, along with home improvement. Enjoy!
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 27, 2020
He's been bullish since late-March due to so much stimulus in the system, but in the last 3 weeks the markets has been narrowing with tech and healthcare facing headwinds now. 10 days ago we saw a strong reversal intra-day. He's become cautious, taking profits in tech names and holds short positions. He sees a rotation into transport stocks and medical devices. Expect bumpiness in the next few weeks. Earnings this week are important to watch to see how the market reacts to those reports and to guidance. Markets consistently rally on good vaccine or stimulus news, including today.
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He's been bullish since late-March due to so much stimulus in the system, but in the last 3 weeks the markets has been narrowing with tech and healthcare facing headwinds now. 10 days ago we saw a strong reversal intra-day. He's become cautious, taking profits in tech names and holds short positions. He sees a rotation into transport stocks and medical devices. Expect bumpiness in the next few weeks. Earnings this week are important to watch to see how the market reacts to those reports and to guidance. Markets consistently rally on good vaccine or stimulus news, including today.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 24, 2020
Market Outlook This week in the market has had a lot of issues to deal with. Going forward investors need to be cognizant of these points and how they may impact their portfolios. There is a potential in the US to see the pandemic case and death counts tick up. He suggested investors should re-think asset allocations. Those heading into retirement should want some exposure into fixed income and increasingly into cash.
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Market Outlook This week in the market has had a lot of issues to deal with. Going forward investors need to be cognizant of these points and how they may impact their portfolios. There is a potential in the US to see the pandemic case and death counts tick up. He suggested investors should re-think asset allocations. Those heading into retirement should want some exposure into fixed income and increasingly into cash.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 24, 2020
US Banks? The big US banks have reported this week. All have pre-signalled what they expect loan losses from the pandemic to be. All the expected losses have been big, making this sector one he is suggesting patience with. He might suggest WFC as they have new executives in place. The company has been hurt and could be moving away from the issues dogging them in the past.
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US Banks? The big US banks have reported this week. All have pre-signalled what they expect loan losses from the pandemic to be. All the expected losses have been big, making this sector one he is suggesting patience with. He might suggest WFC as they have new executives in place. The company has been hurt and could be moving away from the issues dogging them in the past.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 24, 2020
Nasdaq vs TSE exchanges? If you look at the Nasdaq, it has been dominated by just a few names with the shift of work to home. We are likely to see mean reversion. He might trim a Nasdaq position and add to a TSE position. He also would look outside North America due to the correlation of the TSE with US markets. He might suggest looking into a Eurostock 600 ETF to be added.
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Nasdaq vs TSE exchanges? If you look at the Nasdaq, it has been dominated by just a few names with the shift of work to home. We are likely to see mean reversion. He might trim a Nasdaq position and add to a TSE position. He also would look outside North America due to the correlation of the TSE with US markets. He might suggest looking into a Eurostock 600 ETF to be added.
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July 24, 2020
Markets. A battle between the bulls and the bears. The quality of this rally, looking at institutions and retail flows, is poor. The rally is really coming from small individual investors and not institutions. It's driven by central bank support and liquidity that hasn't really solved any of the risk issues that is in the backdrop.
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Markets. A battle between the bulls and the bears. The quality of this rally, looking at institutions and retail flows, is poor. The rally is really coming from small individual investors and not institutions. It's driven by central bank support and liquidity that hasn't really solved any of the risk issues that is in the backdrop.
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July 24, 2020
The fundamentals are not bullish, especially since central banks in many countries had to take on debt and print money. It's an inherent sign of the fundamental weakness in the world economy. It doesn't mean the markets can't continue to go higher, especially with investors who fear missing out but he sees tougher times ahead.
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The fundamentals are not bullish, especially since central banks in many countries had to take on debt and print money. It's an inherent sign of the fundamental weakness in the world economy. It doesn't mean the markets can't continue to go higher, especially with investors who fear missing out but he sees tougher times ahead.
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July 24, 2020
Gold. One of his favourite asset classes. It's a great hedge for market uncertainty and volatility. He sees it going even higher.
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Gold. One of his favourite asset classes. It's a great hedge for market uncertainty and volatility. He sees it going even higher.
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July 24, 2020
Share buybacks. He sees buying back stocks as a form of financial engineering that compensates the C-suite tremendously. He is a critique of share buybacks. He thinks that companies that have bought back stocks will have regulatory restrictions, such as the aviation industry.
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Share buybacks. He sees buying back stocks as a form of financial engineering that compensates the C-suite tremendously. He is a critique of share buybacks. He thinks that companies that have bought back stocks will have regulatory restrictions, such as the aviation industry.
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July 24, 2020
USD Reserve Status. Looking at the cycle of the reserve currency economies of the world, there is a shift with the US and China battling for trade. These cycles take place in decades and centuries. Looking at the Chinese yuan, in the last couple years, the government has devalued it tremendously. The broader US Dollar index is still within the average range. Bottom line, countries will be printing money and taking on debt. Right now, you have to like gold.
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USD Reserve Status. Looking at the cycle of the reserve currency economies of the world, there is a shift with the US and China battling for trade. These cycles take place in decades and centuries. Looking at the Chinese yuan, in the last couple years, the government has devalued it tremendously. The broader US Dollar index is still within the average range. Bottom line, countries will be printing money and taking on debt. Right now, you have to like gold.