A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 10, 2019
The economy and stock market are separate. It comes down to easing by the US Fed with three interest rate cuts this year. The economic data, however, hasn't been good in the U.S., Japan and around the world. The glass is half full. Trade data in the US and China was better than expected, but only because exports from China have fallen less than imports. We're near the end of the cycle, though without the typical inflation. Point is, he doesn't see where the growth will come from. He's getting tired of getting whipsawed by the US president, tired of playing this game of reacting to his tweets. The telecoms look good, trading at 6x operating cash flow, whereas the utilities and REITs are at 15x. Financials are high-dividend places to hide, but he isn't rushing to buy any banks.
General Market Comment
December 10, 2019
The economy and stock market are separate. It comes down to easing by the US Fed with three interest rate cuts this year. The economic data, however, hasn't been good in the U.S., Japan and around the world. The glass is half full. Trade data in the US and China was better than expected, but only because exports from China have fallen less than imports. We're near the end of the cycle, though without the typical inflation. Point is, he doesn't see where the growth will come from. He's getting tired of getting whipsawed by the US president, tired of playing this game of reacting to his tweets. The telecoms look good, trading at 6x operating cash flow, whereas the utilities and REITs are at 15x. Financials are high-dividend places to hide, but he isn't rushing to buy any banks.
John Zechner
Chairman, J. Zechner & Assoc
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 10, 2019
OSFI wants Canadian banks to boost their capital cushion by 0.25% of risk assets. We're late in the cycle, so OSFI is trying to prevent banks from doing stupid things. Overall, this lessens risk for the banks, but also pinches growth slightly. Only if we go into a recession will this be an issue. He's not concerned about it now. As for the Dec. 15 US tariff deadline, nobody knows what'll happen. If a deal was signed, markets would stay this high, but if there won't be a deal, he guesses a 3-5% correction in January. He expects the China-US trade front will settle down then we'll hear more news in the new year. Unless something surprising happens there or something weird happens with Brexit/UK election, markets will rally 2-3% more into Christmas.
General Market Comment
December 10, 2019
OSFI wants Canadian banks to boost their capital cushion by 0.25% of risk assets. We're late in the cycle, so OSFI is trying to prevent banks from doing stupid things. Overall, this lessens risk for the banks, but also pinches growth slightly. Only if we go into a recession will this be an issue. He's not concerned about it now. As for the Dec. 15 US tariff deadline, nobody knows what'll happen. If a deal was signed, markets would stay this high, but if there won't be a deal, he guesses a 3-5% correction in January. He expects the China-US trade front will settle down then we'll hear more news in the new year. Unless something surprising happens there or something weird happens with Brexit/UK election, markets will rally 2-3% more into Christmas.
Paul Gardner, CFA
Partner and Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 10, 2019
Preferred shares and what bond to put in an RRSP? The preferred market got decimated earlier this year; plunged 20% because everyone thought interest rates would rise, but went down instead. Bonds are great to own, but yields are very low now. Look for yields of 3%. There remain nuggets of opportunity. Hard to find and be cautious. Stay with BBB-grade or better bonds.
General Market Comment
December 10, 2019
Preferred shares and what bond to put in an RRSP? The preferred market got decimated earlier this year; plunged 20% because everyone thought interest rates would rise, but went down instead. Bonds are great to own, but yields are very low now. Look for yields of 3%. There remain nuggets of opportunity. Hard to find and be cautious. Stay with BBB-grade or better bonds.
Paul Gardner, CFA
Partner and Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Management
N/A
N/A
December 9, 2019
Market. Brexit. It looks like a conservative majority but that does not solve Brexit. There is still a lot of runway, but this is a hurtle for the market and a conservative win would benefit the markets. There will be a Brexit, well negotiated. The British pound has responded. He is still contemplating selling his UK small cap stocks prior to the election or slightly after. A week Sunday if the December 15th tariff day. He would be surprised if Trump did not kick it down the road at this point, but the tariffs could be applied.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
Market. Brexit. It looks like a conservative majority but that does not solve Brexit. There is still a lot of runway, but this is a hurtle for the market and a conservative win would benefit the markets. There will be a Brexit, well negotiated. The British pound has responded. He is still contemplating selling his UK small cap stocks prior to the election or slightly after. A week Sunday if the December 15th tariff day. He would be surprised if Trump did not kick it down the road at this point, but the tariffs could be applied.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 9, 2019
Park money for 3 to 4 months. This is always a challenge. The general idea is that one is not getting enough safe return. If your horizon is 3-4 months, then you can't get into equities. There are high income savings ETFs that have emerged. CSAV, PSA and HISA. They focus on high income savings. You get over 2% interest today. ZST gives you a money market kind of holding.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
Park money for 3 to 4 months. This is always a challenge. The general idea is that one is not getting enough safe return. If your horizon is 3-4 months, then you can't get into equities. There are high income savings ETFs that have emerged. CSAV, PSA and HISA. They focus on high income savings. You get over 2% interest today. ZST gives you a money market kind of holding.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 9, 2019
Put Spread. You buy a put and write a put. You reduce the cost of the downside protection. He would look at doing this. A long put offsets a short put.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
Put Spread. You buy a put and write a put. You reduce the cost of the downside protection. He would look at doing this. A long put offsets a short put.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 9, 2019
US security ETFs clearing in New York or in Toronto yet securities may not be located in the city it trades in. You can buy them in both places and it may impact tax consequences.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
US security ETFs clearing in New York or in Toronto yet securities may not be located in the city it trades in. You can buy them in both places and it may impact tax consequences.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 9, 2019
In the last 10 years US markets have lead the world recovery. We are at that point where the US is so expensive relative to other places in the world that we will start to see conversion to the US doing less well and international markets doing a bit better.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
In the last 10 years US markets have lead the world recovery. We are at that point where the US is so expensive relative to other places in the world that we will start to see conversion to the US doing less well and international markets doing a bit better.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 9, 2019
He has a problem recommending ETFs with leverage in them to an average investor.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
He has a problem recommending ETFs with leverage in them to an average investor.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
December 9, 2019
His favourite way to play international markets is via a covered call, high divined stock strategy.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
His favourite way to play international markets is via a covered call, high divined stock strategy.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 9, 2019
Educational Segment. Looking back on the last year. He thought we would get a bear market over this year but it was a brief but deep pull back last December. He said then and still thinks we will not see it in terms of job losses until well into 2020. He said then, and still believes, that the trend of a declining Canadian dollar will continue into 2020 somewhere below $0.70. The Canadian banks may not correct until well into next year. He thinks interest rates will be lower in a year than they are today.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
Educational Segment. Looking back on the last year. He thought we would get a bear market over this year but it was a brief but deep pull back last December. He said then and still thinks we will not see it in terms of job losses until well into 2020. He said then, and still believes, that the trend of a declining Canadian dollar will continue into 2020 somewhere below $0.70. The Canadian banks may not correct until well into next year. He thinks interest rates will be lower in a year than they are today.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 9, 2019
Market. It looks like we are seeing a bit of re-acceleration in some of the global numbers he is looking at. One thing he is excited about is some of the changes in technical top down indicators. He is starting to see improvements one after another in many global markets around the world. Lots of stocks are moving higher, not just a few. The number of stocks in an uptrend is broadening out. There has been a fair amount of tax loss selling in the energy sector but there are pockets that look like they are ready to re-accelerate. In the cannabis sector he has started to see some interesting technical indicators changing and it looks like the Canopy stock may be turning the corner and ready to accelerate as well.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
Market. It looks like we are seeing a bit of re-acceleration in some of the global numbers he is looking at. One thing he is excited about is some of the changes in technical top down indicators. He is starting to see improvements one after another in many global markets around the world. Lots of stocks are moving higher, not just a few. The number of stocks in an uptrend is broadening out. There has been a fair amount of tax loss selling in the energy sector but there are pockets that look like they are ready to re-accelerate. In the cannabis sector he has started to see some interesting technical indicators changing and it looks like the Canopy stock may be turning the corner and ready to accelerate as well.
Bruce Campbell (2)
President & Portfolio Manager, Stone Castle Investment Management Inc.
BUY
BUY
December 9, 2019
Gold. In some cases it would make sense for smaller companies to merge. The gold price has gone up over the year so now there is more focus on gold. Now you are seeing some mergers are being announced. Junior explorers and producers are now starting to move. The price of gold will depend on inflation, which he thinks will flare up a little. It will be fairly lumpy.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
Gold. In some cases it would make sense for smaller companies to merge. The gold price has gone up over the year so now there is more focus on gold. Now you are seeing some mergers are being announced. Junior explorers and producers are now starting to move. The price of gold will depend on inflation, which he thinks will flare up a little. It will be fairly lumpy.
Bruce Campbell (2)
President & Portfolio Manager, Stone Castle Investment Management Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 9, 2019
He's bullish, certainly more so in the past few months as interest rates worldwide have eased. You have to look a year ahead, but also don't sell stocks on headline news, like tariffs. Focus on the fundamentals. He holds 15-20 names. When their fundamentals change, then he makes a move. keep defensive names; interest rates will remain low or go lower. He's still avoiding resource stocks, though they aren't a bad trade now; they're cheap and you can move them.
General Market Comment
December 9, 2019
He's bullish, certainly more so in the past few months as interest rates worldwide have eased. You have to look a year ahead, but also don't sell stocks on headline news, like tariffs. Focus on the fundamentals. He holds 15-20 names. When their fundamentals change, then he makes a move. keep defensive names; interest rates will remain low or go lower. He's still avoiding resource stocks, though they aren't a bad trade now; they're cheap and you can move them.
James Telfser
Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management Group
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 6, 2019
Market Outlook The latest jobs release in the US is bringing a rally. It has been a volatile week. He thinks the market will rally into the end of the month. There are still several black swan issues out there, particularly regarding trade issues with the US and the impeachment process. The Canadian dollar is off over a half percent today, but he does not think this is a new trend. He thinks the CAD will stay between $0.75-$0.76. A new Bank of Canada leader is expected to be relatively seamless, he thinks. He believes, Tech stocks should encompass the classes of digitalization, autonomous driving, 5G, gaming, hardware, data analytics, AI, software, and Fintech.
General Market Comment
December 6, 2019
Market Outlook The latest jobs release in the US is bringing a rally. It has been a volatile week. He thinks the market will rally into the end of the month. There are still several black swan issues out there, particularly regarding trade issues with the US and the impeachment process. The Canadian dollar is off over a half percent today, but he does not think this is a new trend. He thinks the CAD will stay between $0.75-$0.76. A new Bank of Canada leader is expected to be relatively seamless, he thinks. He believes, Tech stocks should encompass the classes of digitalization, autonomous driving, 5G, gaming, hardware, data analytics, AI, software, and Fintech.
Kim Bolton
President and Portfolio Manager, Black Swan Dexteritas
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 6, 2019
There’s no question that the job data from the US was great. Above expectations. Revisions were positive. In Canada, the compilation is a bit suspect, but overall it was weaker and this leads to weaker GDP numbers. Looks like we’re fading a bit since the beginning of the year.
General Market Comment
December 6, 2019
There’s no question that the job data from the US was great. Above expectations. Revisions were positive. In Canada, the compilation is a bit suspect, but overall it was weaker and this leads to weaker GDP numbers. Looks like we’re fading a bit since the beginning of the year.
Brooke Thackray
Research Analyst, Horizons ETFs (Canada) Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 6, 2019
Oil is coming back up as Saudi’s try to keep a base in price for the IPO of Aramco. Holding the WTI around $60. The energy sector looks to be oversold so it could be a good time to enter there.
General Market Comment
December 6, 2019
Oil is coming back up as Saudi’s try to keep a base in price for the IPO of Aramco. Holding the WTI around $60. The energy sector looks to be oversold so it could be a good time to enter there.
Brooke Thackray
Research Analyst, Horizons ETFs (Canada) Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 5, 2019
Market. There is a bull market in the US currency. He sees the US dollar way outperforming any other currency. Going forward we only need a couple of pieces of good news and it will take off. After five years of negative yields in Europe, the whole banking sector is putting that into effect. It is a mess. Japan is a tough spot to be. The US dollar is the place to be going forward. All assets priced in US dollars will do very well. There is a countdown for the recession. Once the US dollar starts to go up it suck up funds from all over the world. The US market may 'melt up'. Canada is setting up to be the laggard. If the TSX doubled it would still be a laggard in the world.
General Market Comment
December 5, 2019
Market. There is a bull market in the US currency. He sees the US dollar way outperforming any other currency. Going forward we only need a couple of pieces of good news and it will take off. After five years of negative yields in Europe, the whole banking sector is putting that into effect. It is a mess. Japan is a tough spot to be. The US dollar is the place to be going forward. All assets priced in US dollars will do very well. There is a countdown for the recession. Once the US dollar starts to go up it suck up funds from all over the world. The US market may 'melt up'. Canada is setting up to be the laggard. If the TSX doubled it would still be a laggard in the world.
Brian Acker, CA
Chief Executive Officer, President and Chief Inves, Acker Finley Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 5, 2019
Tonight's show was a repeat program from the Wednesday, December 4 MCT.
General Market Comment
December 5, 2019
Tonight's show was a repeat program from the Wednesday, December 4 MCT.
Editor
Editing Team @ Stockchase, Stockchase Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 4, 2019
The S&P's intrinsic value is 3,150. No surprise that the index has pulled back a little since recently reaching that last Wednesday--in the past 25 years, the S&P has rarely exceeded this level. Blind optimism and low interest rates have overridden this math. Barron's recently wrote that the failure of the market to decline has caused investors to believe that we're in a new investing era where market risk is no longer a realistic consideration, and where FOMO exceeds all other actions. In February 1969, the market peaked, then took another 15 years to reach that height again. In that period, there were buying opportunities. He suspects we're at this stage in 1969. We'll find out....
General Market Comment
December 4, 2019
The S&P's intrinsic value is 3,150. No surprise that the index has pulled back a little since recently reaching that last Wednesday--in the past 25 years, the S&P has rarely exceeded this level. Blind optimism and low interest rates have overridden this math. Barron's recently wrote that the failure of the market to decline has caused investors to believe that we're in a new investing era where market risk is no longer a realistic consideration, and where FOMO exceeds all other actions. In February 1969, the market peaked, then took another 15 years to reach that height again. In that period, there were buying opportunities. He suspects we're at this stage in 1969. We'll find out....
Ross Healy
Chairman, Strategic Analysis Corp
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 4, 2019
Santa Claus rally The market is peaking. Either the market rises higher--for a Santa Claus rally--or it pulls back, and he doesn't see it rising higher. Be very careful with your money right now.
General Market Comment
December 4, 2019
Santa Claus rally The market is peaking. Either the market rises higher--for a Santa Claus rally--or it pulls back, and he doesn't see it rising higher. Be very careful with your money right now.
Ross Healy
Chairman, Strategic Analysis Corp
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 4, 2019
The market was overbought coming into December, so it's natural to give some back this week so far. We're still in a consolidation phase, which is normal in early December during tax-loss selling. Technology and financials' gains will offset losses in, says, energy. This selling continues until the Santa Claus rally in mid-December. This year we have a strong consumer, unlike last December which was dismal, the opposite. Be ready after Dec. 15 to buy. Gains are rare in early December. Investors take on risk at the end of the month.
General Market Comment
December 4, 2019
The market was overbought coming into December, so it's natural to give some back this week so far. We're still in a consolidation phase, which is normal in early December during tax-loss selling. Technology and financials' gains will offset losses in, says, energy. This selling continues until the Santa Claus rally in mid-December. This year we have a strong consumer, unlike last December which was dismal, the opposite. Be ready after Dec. 15 to buy. Gains are rare in early December. Investors take on risk at the end of the month.
Jon Vialoux
Research Analyst, CastleMoore Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 4, 2019
Stop loss strategy and indicators to use? He has a three-pronged approach to keep a stock: 1) stock is in seasonality; 2) technicals are good; and 3) fundamentals act as a tailwind. If even one prong fails, he will reduce or sell the position. He doesn't use anything strict for a stop loss, but will use breakdowns of moving averages; he'll sell a stock when it returns to its previous level of resistance/support. He won't sell on a break, because the stock could break down a point points further--don't sell into the panic. But take advantage of the rebound.
General Market Comment
December 4, 2019
Stop loss strategy and indicators to use? He has a three-pronged approach to keep a stock: 1) stock is in seasonality; 2) technicals are good; and 3) fundamentals act as a tailwind. If even one prong fails, he will reduce or sell the position. He doesn't use anything strict for a stop loss, but will use breakdowns of moving averages; he'll sell a stock when it returns to its previous level of resistance/support. He won't sell on a break, because the stock could break down a point points further--don't sell into the panic. But take advantage of the rebound.
Jon Vialoux
Research Analyst, CastleMoore Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 3, 2019

Tax-loss selling is happening for his clients, but he's holding onto candidates like Arc Resources and Manulilfe. The lifecos have done well this year, especially Sun-Life. Both offer relative safety and growth in Asia. In fact, Manulife isn't a tax-loss candidate. But NFI-T is; New Flyer's deliveries are below expectations and their UK acquisition needs time. The stock is overly punished, though, and will stay in this range for a while. There are signs of growth slowing worldwide with manufacturing data declining. Yet, markets are hitting new highs; markets are ignoring these signals. A narrow band of stocks, including tech, are driving these highs. He expects a rollover to come with investors looking for value. Building cash and fixed income isn't a bad idea now.

General Market Comment
December 3, 2019

Tax-loss selling is happening for his clients, but he's holding onto candidates like Arc Resources and Manulilfe. The lifecos have done well this year, especially Sun-Life. Both offer relative safety and growth in Asia. In fact, Manulife isn't a tax-loss candidate. But NFI-T is; New Flyer's deliveries are below expectations and their UK acquisition needs time. The stock is overly punished, though, and will stay in this range for a while. There are signs of growth slowing worldwide with manufacturing data declining. Yet, markets are hitting new highs; markets are ignoring these signals. A narrow band of stocks, including tech, are driving these highs. He expects a rollover to come with investors looking for value. Building cash and fixed income isn't a bad idea now.

Michael Sprung
President, Sprung Investment Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 3, 2019
We've had three down days in a row. Trump can't have a day without getting into the headlines. Today, he's screwing up world markets by slapping tariffs on Brazil, Argentina and France, on top of the US-China trade deal in progress. Google is up after changing leadership today with the two founders staying on the board. Not a surprise and won't change Alphabet much. BMO just announced deep job cuts of 4% of the workforce; he doesn't know the details yet and it's his least-favourite bank (doesn't own it). He suspects the layoffs presage bad earnings.
General Market Comment
December 3, 2019
We've had three down days in a row. Trump can't have a day without getting into the headlines. Today, he's screwing up world markets by slapping tariffs on Brazil, Argentina and France, on top of the US-China trade deal in progress. Google is up after changing leadership today with the two founders staying on the board. Not a surprise and won't change Alphabet much. BMO just announced deep job cuts of 4% of the workforce; he doesn't know the details yet and it's his least-favourite bank (doesn't own it). He suspects the layoffs presage bad earnings.
David Baskin
President, Baskin Wealth Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 3, 2019
What stocks to include in legacy investing long-term for a child? Insurance companies which take a very long view, like life insurance policies. Those companies have to invest their premiums for 50-60 years. Brookfield and Berkshire invest in infrastructure, proprty and renewable utilities, which have very long lives; this isn't quick-hit investing. Think like those companies.
General Market Comment
December 3, 2019
What stocks to include in legacy investing long-term for a child? Insurance companies which take a very long view, like life insurance policies. Those companies have to invest their premiums for 50-60 years. Brookfield and Berkshire invest in infrastructure, proprty and renewable utilities, which have very long lives; this isn't quick-hit investing. Think like those companies.
David Baskin
President, Baskin Wealth Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 3, 2019
Do you use stop losses and when do you use them? Not at all. The reason is the last two days. For example, if you own a high-quality stock like Apple, you could get sold out of it when you don't want to, like Trump says something stupid and the stock drops, but rises again. He is an investor, not a speculator. Sure, some traders use stop losses for their benefit. But for a long-term investor, the risk of using a stop loss is too risky. Also, you'll have to pay capital gains on any stop loss sale.
General Market Comment
December 3, 2019
Do you use stop losses and when do you use them? Not at all. The reason is the last two days. For example, if you own a high-quality stock like Apple, you could get sold out of it when you don't want to, like Trump says something stupid and the stock drops, but rises again. He is an investor, not a speculator. Sure, some traders use stop losses for their benefit. But for a long-term investor, the risk of using a stop loss is too risky. Also, you'll have to pay capital gains on any stop loss sale.
David Baskin
President, Baskin Wealth Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 3, 2019
Given global market uncertainty is it time to buy bonds? Bonds are necessary for a portfolio, but don't reward much now. Also, bonds are taxed high outside of sheltered accounts. He considers them shock absorbers during market volatility. Keep five-year bonds.
General Market Comment
December 3, 2019
Given global market uncertainty is it time to buy bonds? Bonds are necessary for a portfolio, but don't reward much now. Also, bonds are taxed high outside of sheltered accounts. He considers them shock absorbers during market volatility. Keep five-year bonds.
David Baskin
President, Baskin Wealth Management
N/A
N/A
December 2, 2019
Market. Trump had exempted Brazil last time when he went after steel tariffs. Now they are on. Energy is a big part of what moves the Brazilian currency around. Trump's use of tariffs is not going away. The markets are rationally exuberant about trade. Globally the Purchasing Managers Index has ticked up, except for the US, which is part of the market weakness today.
General Market Comment
December 2, 2019
Market. Trump had exempted Brazil last time when he went after steel tariffs. Now they are on. Energy is a big part of what moves the Brazilian currency around. Trump's use of tariffs is not going away. The markets are rationally exuberant about trade. Globally the Purchasing Managers Index has ticked up, except for the US, which is part of the market weakness today.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
N/A
N/A
December 2, 2019
How do you play the negative side? He does not just make one bet. Gold equities and silver will likely go up and stocks in Canada while other equities will probably go down. It is all about diversification.
General Market Comment
December 2, 2019
How do you play the negative side? He does not just make one bet. Gold equities and silver will likely go up and stocks in Canada while other equities will probably go down. It is all about diversification.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
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