A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 3, 2020
Market Outlook He thinks the last 4 weeks have shown a shift towards opening and the market is responding. Volatility has backed down below 26, the lowest level since February. We are seeing broader gains in value and industrial and even banking stocks. He thinks there will be a shift in supply chains. There will be on-shoring and tightening up of supply chains. This quarter is expected to be weak and there will be still be a couple weaker quarters yet to come. But after that we should begin to see good organic growth.
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Market Outlook He thinks the last 4 weeks have shown a shift towards opening and the market is responding. Volatility has backed down below 26, the lowest level since February. We are seeing broader gains in value and industrial and even banking stocks. He thinks there will be a shift in supply chains. There will be on-shoring and tightening up of supply chains. This quarter is expected to be weak and there will be still be a couple weaker quarters yet to come. But after that we should begin to see good organic growth.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 3, 2020
Canadian Insurance and low interest rates? He thinks the valuations of these holdings, trading at 0.6 times book value, and 6 times earnings are good value. Premiums continue to come out of people's accounts, so he would not count them out. He likes the solid yields. You could buy and tuck it away, along with a good dividend.
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Canadian Insurance and low interest rates? He thinks the valuations of these holdings, trading at 0.6 times book value, and 6 times earnings are good value. Premiums continue to come out of people's accounts, so he would not count them out. He likes the solid yields. You could buy and tuck it away, along with a good dividend.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 2, 2020
He expects a vaccine sometime next year; the market is making a big bet that at least a treatment will emerge. This is a pretty fair bet. Governments have no choice but to pay people to stay home or else they'll riot in the streets. No one knows what will happen to the economy. He came into March holding 25-30% cash and spent half that, but was caught off-guard by the rally. So, he has sold some stocks to raise cash. He sold some of his cyclicals.
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He expects a vaccine sometime next year; the market is making a big bet that at least a treatment will emerge. This is a pretty fair bet. Governments have no choice but to pay people to stay home or else they'll riot in the streets. No one knows what will happen to the economy. He came into March holding 25-30% cash and spent half that, but was caught off-guard by the rally. So, he has sold some stocks to raise cash. He sold some of his cyclicals.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 2, 2020
Sitting on a lot of cash. What to do? Start buying in underperforming areas, like Canadian banks and some consumer stocks. The banks offer good dividends. Insurance companies have also been beaten up and worth looking at. You can buy a little in these areas without undue risk.
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Sitting on a lot of cash. What to do? Start buying in underperforming areas, like Canadian banks and some consumer stocks. The banks offer good dividends. Insurance companies have also been beaten up and worth looking at. You can buy a little in these areas without undue risk.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 2, 2020
Cryptocurrencies: will this be the future and completely replace cash? Only buy what you know. He's never gotten a satisfactory answer about the value of cryptos. So, he's steering clear of them. Every central bank now is printing money; world banks won't reset and aren't going anywhere.
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Cryptocurrencies: will this be the future and completely replace cash? Only buy what you know. He's never gotten a satisfactory answer about the value of cryptos. So, he's steering clear of them. Every central bank now is printing money; world banks won't reset and aren't going anywhere.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 2, 2020
A long-term bond or ETF in oil and not buying an oil stock Oil/gas bonds in Suncor or CNQ pay only 3%, or else you buy indebted oil companies that may not survive. He avoids commodity stocks. Oil needs to rise past $55 to really thrive. This could be a depressed industry for a while. Cash is a good idea.
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A long-term bond or ETF in oil and not buying an oil stock Oil/gas bonds in Suncor or CNQ pay only 3%, or else you buy indebted oil companies that may not survive. He avoids commodity stocks. Oil needs to rise past $55 to really thrive. This could be a depressed industry for a while. Cash is a good idea.
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N/A
June 1, 2020
Market. It is important to think about the market from the dynamics of inflation and growth. There is a part of the markets that doing exceptionally well and other parts that are not. Some of the market is really struggling. Tech stocks are really struggling. The tech economy has had a decade's worth of fast forward in the adoption of portability of work. Tech is a return OF your capital rather than a return ON your capital. Zoom is now worth more than the world's seven largest airlines. Some of the economy is booming and some is not ever going to make it back.
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Market. It is important to think about the market from the dynamics of inflation and growth. There is a part of the markets that doing exceptionally well and other parts that are not. Some of the market is really struggling. Tech stocks are really struggling. The tech economy has had a decade's worth of fast forward in the adoption of portability of work. Tech is a return OF your capital rather than a return ON your capital. Zoom is now worth more than the world's seven largest airlines. Some of the economy is booming and some is not ever going to make it back.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 1, 2020

An Airline ETF Recommendation. It is a bottom picking exercise. You have a significant drawdown on these stocks and they had a marginal recovery. He would suggest JETS-N as the purest play. IYT-T is a transportation ETF. Don't rush into it. It might be better to wait until this ETF improves in its price. Wait for it to get to $20.

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An Airline ETF Recommendation. It is a bottom picking exercise. You have a significant drawdown on these stocks and they had a marginal recovery. He would suggest JETS-N as the purest play. IYT-T is a transportation ETF. Don't rush into it. It might be better to wait until this ETF improves in its price. Wait for it to get to $20.

BUY
BUY
June 1, 2020
Gold and Silver ETFs. See his Top Picks today.
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Gold and Silver ETFs. See his Top Picks today.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2020
Market Outlook Earnings expectations have been revised downwards -- chopped by over 35% on the TSX. This is still going to be attractive relative to bond yields. He thinks gold could see further moves higher, perhaps over $2650. Canadian gold producers are reaping improved cash flows thanks to a weakening CAD exchange rate. He thinks low real interest rates will continue, making gold a good asset to hold going forward.
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Market Outlook Earnings expectations have been revised downwards -- chopped by over 35% on the TSX. This is still going to be attractive relative to bond yields. He thinks gold could see further moves higher, perhaps over $2650. Canadian gold producers are reaping improved cash flows thanks to a weakening CAD exchange rate. He thinks low real interest rates will continue, making gold a good asset to hold going forward.
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N/A
May 29, 2020
Market. LB-T cut their dividend, violating the sanctity of the Canadian Bank Dividend. Is there a possibility of others having to do this? Look at real estate. Banks set aside a record amount for loans going sour. People got mortgage deferrals. We can do that for a couple of months but not for ever. It is going to take quite a while for things to normalize. The vast majority of the loan books in Canada are syndicated and the banks don't have massive exposure but they do have exposure to lending. He thinks it will be for longer than the markets realize. Trump made his pronouncement about China and it was not as bad as some feared. He knows what to say and what not to say. As we get closer to the election he will get more brazen in his rhetoric about China. The markets are underestimating the importance of it.
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Market. LB-T cut their dividend, violating the sanctity of the Canadian Bank Dividend. Is there a possibility of others having to do this? Look at real estate. Banks set aside a record amount for loans going sour. People got mortgage deferrals. We can do that for a couple of months but not for ever. It is going to take quite a while for things to normalize. The vast majority of the loan books in Canada are syndicated and the banks don't have massive exposure but they do have exposure to lending. He thinks it will be for longer than the markets realize. Trump made his pronouncement about China and it was not as bad as some feared. He knows what to say and what not to say. As we get closer to the election he will get more brazen in his rhetoric about China. The markets are underestimating the importance of it.
BUY
BUY
May 29, 2020
Favourite Gold Stock. It is one of his favourite asset classes. He does not pick stocks out of the group. He would rather get the right theme. Play the sector with ZGD-T or XGD-T or GDX-N, GDXJ-N or ZJG-T, rather than a particular stock.
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Favourite Gold Stock. It is one of his favourite asset classes. He does not pick stocks out of the group. He would rather get the right theme. Play the sector with ZGD-T or XGD-T or GDX-N, GDXJ-N or ZJG-T, rather than a particular stock.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2020
Hedging and how. If it is a taxable account it is more robust than in a registered account. You can use inverse ETFs but you would have to be half in cash. You could go to VBAL-T. It depends what kind of account you have.
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Hedging and how. If it is a taxable account it is more robust than in a registered account. You can use inverse ETFs but you would have to be half in cash. You could go to VBAL-T. It depends what kind of account you have.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2020
There are going to be challenges to REITs and what he likes now is the apartment REIT. He would be patient.
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There are going to be challenges to REITs and what he likes now is the apartment REIT. He would be patient.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 29, 2020
Strip Bonds. You HAD the benefit of falling interest rates. He thinks you will have stagflation going forward. It will prevent bond yields going up so he could not stay with strips.
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Strip Bonds. You HAD the benefit of falling interest rates. He thinks you will have stagflation going forward. It will prevent bond yields going up so he could not stay with strips.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 29, 2020
Educational Segment. V' Shaped Market Recovery. Fundamentally the risk factors are equity market valuations. Earnings estimates are too high for the S&P. The market is as expensive now as it was in 2000. Markets don’t bottom until we wash out expectations on earnings. There is a lot more to do on the downside before we can get bullish.
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Educational Segment. V' Shaped Market Recovery. Fundamentally the risk factors are equity market valuations. Earnings estimates are too high for the S&P. The market is as expensive now as it was in 2000. Markets don’t bottom until we wash out expectations on earnings. There is a lot more to do on the downside before we can get bullish.
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May 28, 2020
Market. He is cautious because market valuations have increased since the lows but earnings expectations have not kept pace. He is encouraged to see the stimulus from governments and central banks around the world. The markets are reacting positively to therapeutics, vaccines and they are making investors feel comfortable that we will get through the next couple of quarters. Also, there are reopenings over the last couple of weeks and that is encouraging people and keeping them hopeful. At these levels the market is really putting a bridge across Q2 and Q3 of this year and is looking into 2021 and putting a multiple of 18.5 on forecasted earnings which are from 2019. The market is saying 2021 will look a lot like 2019. Investors should be cautious over the summer. He is worried about the situation between China and the US, a cold war, and also the US election that is coming up.
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Market. He is cautious because market valuations have increased since the lows but earnings expectations have not kept pace. He is encouraged to see the stimulus from governments and central banks around the world. The markets are reacting positively to therapeutics, vaccines and they are making investors feel comfortable that we will get through the next couple of quarters. Also, there are reopenings over the last couple of weeks and that is encouraging people and keeping them hopeful. At these levels the market is really putting a bridge across Q2 and Q3 of this year and is looking into 2021 and putting a multiple of 18.5 on forecasted earnings which are from 2019. The market is saying 2021 will look a lot like 2019. Investors should be cautious over the summer. He is worried about the situation between China and the US, a cold war, and also the US election that is coming up.
BUY
BUY
May 28, 2020
Gold. We have a nice base building in gold and it will then make its way to $1950-2000 over the next year to a year and a half. It could drop into the $1600s as well. It is the stimulus that will put a floor in gold. It is a great play, though.
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Gold. We have a nice base building in gold and it will then make its way to $1950-2000 over the next year to a year and a half. It could drop into the $1600s as well. It is the stimulus that will put a floor in gold. It is a great play, though.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 27, 2020
Market Outlook Investors are challenged with economic data showing record drops, yet markets are almost at year highs. Market economic data has softened, but now there are inklings of things looking positive. He thinks investors should avoid sectors that have not responded at all during the recovery. Also, there may be sector rotation going on, where sectors are now performing that were not before. Investors need to be cognizant of these changes.
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Market Outlook Investors are challenged with economic data showing record drops, yet markets are almost at year highs. Market economic data has softened, but now there are inklings of things looking positive. He thinks investors should avoid sectors that have not responded at all during the recovery. Also, there may be sector rotation going on, where sectors are now performing that were not before. Investors need to be cognizant of these changes.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 27, 2020
Canadian REITs? He thinks the trend that is expected is that office space rental will shrink. Lower quality buildings are at risk. Industrial REITs for distribution will likely do well. The bigger, well capitalized offerings will likely do better. When trends become better known, you could look for value in the aftermath of the pandemic.
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Canadian REITs? He thinks the trend that is expected is that office space rental will shrink. Lower quality buildings are at risk. Industrial REITs for distribution will likely do well. The bigger, well capitalized offerings will likely do better. When trends become better known, you could look for value in the aftermath of the pandemic.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 26, 2020
We had an initial panic and not a bifurcated market: companies immune to the downturn (i.e. grocers) and retailers who are struggling. The financial sector intrigues him--there's a 5-6% bump today. Yes, stimulus is driving this rally, but we still need consumers to drive it until there is rigorous economic activity. Very low interest rates will remain a drag on banks, but they will adapt, such as using more technology.
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We had an initial panic and not a bifurcated market: companies immune to the downturn (i.e. grocers) and retailers who are struggling. The financial sector intrigues him--there's a 5-6% bump today. Yes, stimulus is driving this rally, but we still need consumers to drive it until there is rigorous economic activity. Very low interest rates will remain a drag on banks, but they will adapt, such as using more technology.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 26, 2020
Is there really a V-recovery? For most U.S. stocks, like the banks, they haven't seen a V recovery. Remember that stock markets look to the future, so some investors are optimistic, while others are more cautious and expect a slower recovery. The market does not reflect the economy, necessarily. Tech stocks, like Amazon and Google, are driving the markets, while other stocks remain 20% down. This is a bifurcated market. Nobody really knows what the recovery will be. Also, remember that fiscal stimulus lasted 3-4 years after the recession, and there was slow economy growth. Don't be surprised if this happens again. Does your optimism about the recovery match the market's?
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Is there really a V-recovery? For most U.S. stocks, like the banks, they haven't seen a V recovery. Remember that stock markets look to the future, so some investors are optimistic, while others are more cautious and expect a slower recovery. The market does not reflect the economy, necessarily. Tech stocks, like Amazon and Google, are driving the markets, while other stocks remain 20% down. This is a bifurcated market. Nobody really knows what the recovery will be. Also, remember that fiscal stimulus lasted 3-4 years after the recession, and there was slow economy growth. Don't be surprised if this happens again. Does your optimism about the recovery match the market's?
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May 25, 2020
Market. We went through a number of phases since we went to market lows at the beginning of the pandemic. The market has looked at support from governments and so on and now we are in a re-opening phase. We need to see how that goes into June. Markets are a little bit too optimistic about a 'V' shaped recovery and he is encouraging clients to take a bit of money off the table. The market could continue going higher through June if COVID numbers don't overwhelm the healthcare system. At some point if the market is not getting guidance from companies on earnings then it could take money off the table by the fall. Investors are gun shy about putting money to work in the banks. The banks are providing some value right now.
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Market. We went through a number of phases since we went to market lows at the beginning of the pandemic. The market has looked at support from governments and so on and now we are in a re-opening phase. We need to see how that goes into June. Markets are a little bit too optimistic about a 'V' shaped recovery and he is encouraging clients to take a bit of money off the table. The market could continue going higher through June if COVID numbers don't overwhelm the healthcare system. At some point if the market is not getting guidance from companies on earnings then it could take money off the table by the fall. Investors are gun shy about putting money to work in the banks. The banks are providing some value right now.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 22, 2020
Market Outlook He thinks there are two classes of stock out there -- the strong and the weak. He is confounded about how this market continues to rally back. Those strong companies continue to thrive, the weak are struggling. Companies are re-tooling and this may make some companies stronger. Although there may be fewer companies at the end of this and this may not be the best scenario for consumers. He is also hearing that some companies are looking to expand their scope of business, so it will be very dynamic. Earnings are being priced out beyond 2021 and almost zero interest rates are making stocks look attractive. He thinks gold's recent rise is on the back of higher debt levels globally, which are highly correlated together. He prefers to own physical gold.
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Market Outlook He thinks there are two classes of stock out there -- the strong and the weak. He is confounded about how this market continues to rally back. Those strong companies continue to thrive, the weak are struggling. Companies are re-tooling and this may make some companies stronger. Although there may be fewer companies at the end of this and this may not be the best scenario for consumers. He is also hearing that some companies are looking to expand their scope of business, so it will be very dynamic. Earnings are being priced out beyond 2021 and almost zero interest rates are making stocks look attractive. He thinks gold's recent rise is on the back of higher debt levels globally, which are highly correlated together. He prefers to own physical gold.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 22, 2020
CAD $ ETFs in other countries? It depends on your view of the Canadian dollar. He is not bullish on the CAD. He would not be afraid to buy the US dollar equivalent for other country ETFs. He would caution about being too clever about moving away from the US markets, which have a good thing going.
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CAD $ ETFs in other countries? It depends on your view of the Canadian dollar. He is not bullish on the CAD. He would not be afraid to buy the US dollar equivalent for other country ETFs. He would caution about being too clever about moving away from the US markets, which have a good thing going.
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May 22, 2020
Market. They EU is going to back a Euro bond. It is yet more effort from government to put unprecedented support behind the response to COVID-19. The world is awash in debt and they are throwing more debt at it. They will eventually have to monetize it. There is the battle between the US and China and between China and Hong King and these are just more hurtles to get over. China has dropped its economic growth plan.
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Market. They EU is going to back a Euro bond. It is yet more effort from government to put unprecedented support behind the response to COVID-19. The world is awash in debt and they are throwing more debt at it. They will eventually have to monetize it. There is the battle between the US and China and between China and Hong King and these are just more hurtles to get over. China has dropped its economic growth plan.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 22, 2020
Bonds. There is not much yield left anywhere in the world and if you factor in inflation, you have negative yield. Once we get through the deflationary effect of COVOD over a year or more, we are going to have a massive run of inflation. The Fed is planning on buying all bonds above a certain amount. The bond market will be owned by the Fed.
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Bonds. There is not much yield left anywhere in the world and if you factor in inflation, you have negative yield. Once we get through the deflationary effect of COVOD over a year or more, we are going to have a massive run of inflation. The Fed is planning on buying all bonds above a certain amount. The bond market will be owned by the Fed.
WAIT
WAIT
May 22, 2020
Copper. COPX is a basket of copper miners so you are not buying the copper commodity. Buy on the next step down.
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Copper. COPX is a basket of copper miners so you are not buying the copper commodity. Buy on the next step down.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
May 22, 2020
Gold. It is extremely unlikely it will drop dramatically in the short term. He would buy into the dip. It is headed higher for years to come. When bond yields are zero or negative, then gold has no competitor.
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Gold. It is extremely unlikely it will drop dramatically in the short term. He would buy into the dip. It is headed higher for years to come. When bond yields are zero or negative, then gold has no competitor.
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May 22, 2020
Educational Segment. Comparison of present economic situation to that of the early eighties. At the beginning of the eighties Regan had some economic tailwinds behind him. Today we have grossly underfunded pension funds, healthcare and have a massive need for infrastructure as well as major concerns about the environment. There is a tragic demographic in the form of the ratio of people of working age to the young and old which will get worse for decades to come. There is also a massive decline in the output of labour. These are all headwinds they did not have in the early eighties. In investing, quality will be one of the most important factors.
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Educational Segment. Comparison of present economic situation to that of the early eighties. At the beginning of the eighties Regan had some economic tailwinds behind him. Today we have grossly underfunded pension funds, healthcare and have a massive need for infrastructure as well as major concerns about the environment. There is a tragic demographic in the form of the ratio of people of working age to the young and old which will get worse for decades to come. There is also a massive decline in the output of labour. These are all headwinds they did not have in the early eighties. In investing, quality will be one of the most important factors.
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May 21, 2020
Market. It is certainly a concern that people will not resume going into the office after the pandemic is over, impacting office REITs. He feels, though, that the world will return to more normal than not. There are a lot of things we cannot do effectively when we are not working together. 2-3 years out we will return to some sort of normal. SHOP-T will reassess in 2021 as to whether to have everyone work from home any longer. Even if a portion of the workforce has to work from home, social distancing will dictate that more office space is necessary as we resume normal life.
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Market. It is certainly a concern that people will not resume going into the office after the pandemic is over, impacting office REITs. He feels, though, that the world will return to more normal than not. There are a lot of things we cannot do effectively when we are not working together. 2-3 years out we will return to some sort of normal. SHOP-T will reassess in 2021 as to whether to have everyone work from home any longer. Even if a portion of the workforce has to work from home, social distancing will dictate that more office space is necessary as we resume normal life.
BUY
BUY
May 21, 2020
Big 5 Banks. He likes the banks and is adding to them as he was underweight previously. These measure to be the most resilient and strongest businesses in Canada. These things are like utilities. He does not feel they will cut their dividends.
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Big 5 Banks. He likes the banks and is adding to them as he was underweight previously. These measure to be the most resilient and strongest businesses in Canada. These things are like utilities. He does not feel they will cut their dividends.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 21, 2020
Floating rate reset preferreds with interest rates going negative. Negative interest rates are not good for a floating rate preferred. He does not think our government will send rates into a negative territory.
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Floating rate reset preferreds with interest rates going negative. Negative interest rates are not good for a floating rate preferred. He does not think our government will send rates into a negative territory.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 20, 2020
Market Outlook He thinks global crude oil inventories should begin to draw in July. When oil demand collapsed, it was estimated production was about 98 million barrels per day (bpd), whereas demand had shriveled to 65 million bpd. He expects oil demand to recover to 86 million bpd by then. In Q4 he expects demand back to 94 million bpd. Gasoline demand recovery was a little disappointing in the latest statistics, however. He thinks oil price recovery may be a little ahead of itself, because it is not until the second-half that we should see oil prices hit $40-$50. He expects 10 million bpd storage builds in May and 4 million bpd builds in June when storage availability is low. This could cause oil prices to plunge once again soon, perhaps below $20 for WTI. He is telling investors to hold off buying now, because he expects a retracement is yet to come for energy stocks. Be patient.
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Market Outlook He thinks global crude oil inventories should begin to draw in July. When oil demand collapsed, it was estimated production was about 98 million barrels per day (bpd), whereas demand had shriveled to 65 million bpd. He expects oil demand to recover to 86 million bpd by then. In Q4 he expects demand back to 94 million bpd. Gasoline demand recovery was a little disappointing in the latest statistics, however. He thinks oil price recovery may be a little ahead of itself, because it is not until the second-half that we should see oil prices hit $40-$50. He expects 10 million bpd storage builds in May and 4 million bpd builds in June when storage availability is low. This could cause oil prices to plunge once again soon, perhaps below $20 for WTI. He is telling investors to hold off buying now, because he expects a retracement is yet to come for energy stocks. Be patient.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 20, 2020
Oil sands differentials? The differential has widened back out towards $10 /bbl. If WTI prices drop below $20 again, like he expects to happen shortly, heavy oil producers will really struggle. He believes global oil stocks will again begin to build sharply when there is limited storage availability. It is not until Q4, when he expects oil demand to recover, will we see WTI get back towards $40. He does not like the comment against KXL by Biden, which makes him worried about this project. Canadian exports to the US have been dropping along with demand declines. He is not as optimistic on heavy oil as he is on light oil and condensate.
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Oil sands differentials? The differential has widened back out towards $10 /bbl. If WTI prices drop below $20 again, like he expects to happen shortly, heavy oil producers will really struggle. He believes global oil stocks will again begin to build sharply when there is limited storage availability. It is not until Q4, when he expects oil demand to recover, will we see WTI get back towards $40. He does not like the comment against KXL by Biden, which makes him worried about this project. Canadian exports to the US have been dropping along with demand declines. He is not as optimistic on heavy oil as he is on light oil and condensate.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 19, 2020
He's finding the right point to switch to aggressive stocks during this disruption. During bear markets you get lucrative buying opportunities in order to offset lower returns. The strategy is to gradually buy stocks that fell 50%, but will return to previous levels, rather than stocks that declined 10%.
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He's finding the right point to switch to aggressive stocks during this disruption. During bear markets you get lucrative buying opportunities in order to offset lower returns. The strategy is to gradually buy stocks that fell 50%, but will return to previous levels, rather than stocks that declined 10%.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 19, 2020
Dividends for safety, to sleep at night. Also look at Canadian bank stocks which have sold off 19-35%. Factor dividends and stock appreciation for consistent returns. In 2010, they endured without cutting dividends. They haven't cut them since 1940. He isn't worried about the headwinds, like a weak real estate market.
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Dividends for safety, to sleep at night. Also look at Canadian bank stocks which have sold off 19-35%. Factor dividends and stock appreciation for consistent returns. In 2010, they endured without cutting dividends. They haven't cut them since 1940. He isn't worried about the headwinds, like a weak real estate market.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 19, 2020
Are the Americans still shorting Canadian banks? These shorts are quite limited, but attracted media attention. This won't be a short squeeze. He's not worried. The banks have a tremendous track record and did well in the 2008 recession. Post-recession regulation has made banks around the world stronger, including Canada's.
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Are the Americans still shorting Canadian banks? These shorts are quite limited, but attracted media attention. This won't be a short squeeze. He's not worried. The banks have a tremendous track record and did well in the 2008 recession. Post-recession regulation has made banks around the world stronger, including Canada's.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 15, 2020
Market Outlook It is amazing to think oil was trading above $40 a month ago. The build in inventories around the world are starting to slow as demand is slowly recovering. Demand had been down 32 million barrels per day. This may mean it will take a lot less time for things to normalize. Apple tracking mileage in the US shows travel is down only about 9% from a year ago. OPEC members too are struggling for survival. Global offshore is going into stagnation due to loss of capital investment. As bad as thing were, the outlook for 2021 is incredibly bullish. Using $50 oil prices, share prices could potentially quadruple. There are estimates that total oil stocks globally went up 450 million barrels, about half of what the IEA had predicted. June WTI futures go off the board next week. He feels it is much less likely that it will settle negative like the May contract.
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Market Outlook It is amazing to think oil was trading above $40 a month ago. The build in inventories around the world are starting to slow as demand is slowly recovering. Demand had been down 32 million barrels per day. This may mean it will take a lot less time for things to normalize. Apple tracking mileage in the US shows travel is down only about 9% from a year ago. OPEC members too are struggling for survival. Global offshore is going into stagnation due to loss of capital investment. As bad as thing were, the outlook for 2021 is incredibly bullish. Using $50 oil prices, share prices could potentially quadruple. There are estimates that total oil stocks globally went up 450 million barrels, about half of what the IEA had predicted. June WTI futures go off the board next week. He feels it is much less likely that it will settle negative like the May contract.
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N/A
May 15, 2020
Market. There is a new cold war developing between China and the US to be fought on the trade front. We expect more of this. Semi conductors took a bit of a hit on this and there is a lot more to come. Equity markets did not like Trump tweeting that he was tariff man back in 2018 and they won't like this. The exuberance from March is running out. The average stock is very much in a bear market.
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Market. There is a new cold war developing between China and the US to be fought on the trade front. We expect more of this. Semi conductors took a bit of a hit on this and there is a lot more to come. Equity markets did not like Trump tweeting that he was tariff man back in 2018 and they won't like this. The exuberance from March is running out. The average stock is very much in a bear market.
BUY
BUY
May 15, 2020
Just buy covered call ETFs? You should be more diversified including being diversified globally. When you are getting those dividends, remember that they can be cut. He has no other issue otherwise.
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Just buy covered call ETFs? You should be more diversified including being diversified globally. When you are getting those dividends, remember that they can be cut. He has no other issue otherwise.
BUY
BUY
May 15, 2020
Own corporate bonds rather than equities since they will likely be backstopped by the fed. In the US there are several ETFs for corporate bonds. LQD-N is a good one (liquid corporate bond universe) but there is some interest rate risk. You pick up 350 basis points on this. This is not a bad play right now. The FED started buying it last week. Don't broadly jump into junk bonds here.
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Own corporate bonds rather than equities since they will likely be backstopped by the fed. In the US there are several ETFs for corporate bonds. LQD-N is a good one (liquid corporate bond universe) but there is some interest rate risk. You pick up 350 basis points on this. This is not a bad play right now. The FED started buying it last week. Don't broadly jump into junk bonds here.
BUY
BUY
May 15, 2020
Real Estate. He would look at apartment dividend equities. Canadian for taxable accounts or globally for registered accounts. ZWE-T is a recommendation for international dividend payers.
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Real Estate. He would look at apartment dividend equities. Canadian for taxable accounts or globally for registered accounts. ZWE-T is a recommendation for international dividend payers.
N/A
N/A
May 15, 2020
Educational Segment. The role of government and how we measure economic success. He is concerned about the path the world has taken to try to fix the issues. We have thrown easy money at them. 6 stocks make 17% of the US market. It is inequality. We need a fix. There is an OECD better life index that looks at how society is doing. He thinks we should measure quality of life. FED funds futures are pointing to negative interest rates. We are going to a money printing world.
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Educational Segment. The role of government and how we measure economic success. He is concerned about the path the world has taken to try to fix the issues. We have thrown easy money at them. 6 stocks make 17% of the US market. It is inequality. We need a fix. There is an OECD better life index that looks at how society is doing. He thinks we should measure quality of life. FED funds futures are pointing to negative interest rates. We are going to a money printing world.