Canaccord Financial Inc

CF-T

TSE:CF

5.68
0.37 (6.97%)
Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. is a global, full-service investment banking and financial services company that specializes in wealth management and brokerage in capital markets. It is the largest independent investment dealer in Canada.
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Analysis and Opinions about CF-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 28, 2019
Has been tempted to buy it for the valuation, but cannabis and bitcoin generated a lot of revenue for them, but that's since come off. Also, there's the UK headwind. It faces some rocky months ahead. Don't buy it now, but things will shake out in 12 months. Buy it at 0.75 book.
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Has been tempted to buy it for the valuation, but cannabis and bitcoin generated a lot of revenue for them, but that's since come off. Also, there's the UK headwind. It faces some rocky months ahead. Don't buy it now, but things will shake out in 12 months. Buy it at 0.75 book.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 9, 2018

It has struggled. Investment banking last year drove this company; they also the rode and cannabis and blackchain wave. Not a cheap stock. Don't add here. They're in a tough world of small caps with limited capital. They've done
fantastically well with cannabis, so kudos for them.

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It has struggled. Investment banking last year drove this company; they also the rode and cannabis and blackchain wave. Not a cheap stock. Don't add here. They're in a tough world of small caps with limited capital. They've done
fantastically well with cannabis, so kudos for them.

WATCH
WATCH
April 2, 2018

There is a bit of a rounded look on the three year chart. Lately the highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher. It is a cup and handle formation. This is the handle now. You get noise at this point. If it moves up from here then you have a pretty good looking chart. It is in the beginning stages and could end up looking very good.

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There is a bit of a rounded look on the three year chart. Lately the highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher. It is a cup and handle formation. This is the handle now. You get noise at this point. If it moves up from here then you have a pretty good looking chart. It is in the beginning stages and could end up looking very good.

BUY
BUY
March 13, 2018

This stock is breaking out. We’ve seen these levels before, but not for a couple of years. This stock has been a spotty trader, in terms of volume. There was a good consolidation at $6.50 and it looks to be coming off of that. The volume on the recent upside swing looks good. It might rise to $8 or 9 over the next 6 months. It pays a very small dividend. In terms of fundamentals, it looks like a bargain right now. For example it looks good in terms of earnings and in terms of industry relative value. If it does fall, start reducing at $6.40 or $6.50 and use $5.85 for a full exit.

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This stock is breaking out. We’ve seen these levels before, but not for a couple of years. This stock has been a spotty trader, in terms of volume. There was a good consolidation at $6.50 and it looks to be coming off of that. The volume on the recent upside swing looks good. It might rise to $8 or 9 over the next 6 months. It pays a very small dividend. In terms of fundamentals, it looks like a bargain right now. For example it looks good in terms of earnings and in terms of industry relative value. If it does fall, start reducing at $6.40 or $6.50 and use $5.85 for a full exit.

SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
March 5, 2018

It looks from the chart like the stock is breaking out. In 2011 and 2014 there were spikes. He does not know what is causing the current one. It is a speculative move and probably does not have a lot of longevity in it.

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It looks from the chart like the stock is breaking out. In 2011 and 2014 there were spikes. He does not know what is causing the current one. It is a speculative move and probably does not have a lot of longevity in it.

BUY
BUY
February 20, 2018

They fill the space where Canadian banks aren't, for example they were in cannabis and blockchain before the banks. They've done a good job of getting into innovative spaces, though can be cyclical.

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They fill the space where Canadian banks aren't, for example they were in cannabis and blockchain before the banks. They've done a good job of getting into innovative spaces, though can be cyclical.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 24, 2017

Banks are doing well, but unfortunately it is at the expense of the independent brokers in Canada. This is certainly cheap, but the Canadian broker space in general is challenged, because you have the banks on the investment side of things and are doing smaller and smaller things.

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Banks are doing well, but unfortunately it is at the expense of the independent brokers in Canada. This is certainly cheap, but the Canadian broker space in general is challenged, because you have the banks on the investment side of things and are doing smaller and smaller things.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 23, 2017

Not doing very well. Chart shows it tried to recover this year, but didn’t quite make it, and it came back down. Looks like this is going to be trading in a narrow range of $4-$6 going forward. There are better things to do with your money.

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Not doing very well. Chart shows it tried to recover this year, but didn’t quite make it, and it came back down. Looks like this is going to be trading in a narrow range of $4-$6 going forward. There are better things to do with your money.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 31, 2017

(Top Pick July6/17, Down 15.23%) It is up since he first recommended it in his newsletter.

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(Top Pick July6/17, Down 15.23%) It is up since he first recommended it in his newsletter.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 6, 2017

They are a top underwriter for the cannabis industry. They combined with Genuity and are now a full fledge multi-industry service investment firm. Not too many people paid attention at their earnings announcement. They are about to buy a UK wealth manager. He expects over a $1 a share in earnings. He has been buying more. (Analysts’ target: $6.50).

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They are a top underwriter for the cannabis industry. They combined with Genuity and are now a full fledge multi-industry service investment firm. Not too many people paid attention at their earnings announcement. They are about to buy a UK wealth manager. He expects over a $1 a share in earnings. He has been buying more. (Analysts’ target: $6.50).

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 5, 2017

Not quite sure that being Long a Canadian brokerage would be the best place to be over the near term, particularly given that he is not that rosy about the Canadian economy in general. It is a very, very hyper competitive industry they are operating in, with margins being compressed from every direction. However, it is diversifying into other countries, the UK, which is an interesting contrarian play because of the BREXIT overhang. Trading below BV and also have considerable retail assets that would be worth something to a potential acquirer.

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Not quite sure that being Long a Canadian brokerage would be the best place to be over the near term, particularly given that he is not that rosy about the Canadian economy in general. It is a very, very hyper competitive industry they are operating in, with margins being compressed from every direction. However, it is diversifying into other countries, the UK, which is an interesting contrarian play because of the BREXIT overhang. Trading below BV and also have considerable retail assets that would be worth something to a potential acquirer.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 26, 2017

The major 4th retail operator currently listed. It has been through difficult times. The markets have been difficult. They lost their president. Has some very interesting properties in Australia and the US. Volumes have not been tremendous on the stock and IPO markets for the most part. Doesn’t see anything that is going to crank the handle in the near term. If you see something more exciting, then put the cash there. He sold his holdings.

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The major 4th retail operator currently listed. It has been through difficult times. The markets have been difficult. They lost their president. Has some very interesting properties in Australia and the US. Volumes have not been tremendous on the stock and IPO markets for the most part. Doesn’t see anything that is going to crank the handle in the near term. If you see something more exciting, then put the cash there. He sold his holdings.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 9, 2017

Preferred C. This will reset at the 5 year Canada rate, around 3.75%. Why is it at $18, instead of $25, which would normally be the issuance value? 5-6 years ago, the rage was Reset Preferreds because rates were low and if rates went up, there would be a higher yield when it reset. Instead of going up though, rates fell. Therefore at reset, at 3.75% over our Canada 5 year of about 80 basis points, it is going to be reset with a 4.5% yield. The risk doesn’t necessarily correspond with a 4.5% yield that you would get on other safer preferreds. The market doesn’t like that, so it is not going to pay you for value. As long as interest rates stay low, it is a great thing for the issuer because it is a cheap preferred. Unfortunately, it will trade at around $18 for a while.

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Preferred C. This will reset at the 5 year Canada rate, around 3.75%. Why is it at $18, instead of $25, which would normally be the issuance value? 5-6 years ago, the rage was Reset Preferreds because rates were low and if rates went up, there would be a higher yield when it reset. Instead of going up though, rates fell. Therefore at reset, at 3.75% over our Canada 5 year of about 80 basis points, it is going to be reset with a 4.5% yield. The risk doesn’t necessarily correspond with a 4.5% yield that you would get on other safer preferreds. The market doesn’t like that, so it is not going to pay you for value. As long as interest rates stay low, it is a great thing for the issuer because it is a cheap preferred. Unfortunately, it will trade at around $18 for a while.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 25, 2017

Their season is from October into April. Chart shows a long downward drop from 2014 until early 2016, at which time it started basing. He doesn’t have a lot of faith that the stock will have an uptick at this point. Wait for that to take place, and come back to it in October.

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Their season is from October into April. Chart shows a long downward drop from 2014 until early 2016, at which time it started basing. He doesn’t have a lot of faith that the stock will have an uptick at this point. Wait for that to take place, and come back to it in October.

WATCH
WATCH
April 3, 2017

It is a rounded bottom. This is a positive development.

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It is a rounded bottom. This is a positive development.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 14, 2017

Will this benefit from an interest rate hike? The short answer is yes. Brokers do very well in a rising rate environment, or in an environment where there is a yield curve of any sort, because they can actually make money on cash balances that sit on their books. This has a reasonable US presence. The one issue he would caution you on, is that they have a very large UK business.

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Will this benefit from an interest rate hike? The short answer is yes. Brokers do very well in a rising rate environment, or in an environment where there is a yield curve of any sort, because they can actually make money on cash balances that sit on their books. This has a reasonable US presence. The one issue he would caution you on, is that they have a very large UK business.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 8, 2017

The 5-year chart shows a big overhead supply in 2014 into 2015. This is building a base now, and needs to break above $5.70 before it is out of the woods. The jury is still out on this one. You want to see a breakout of $5.70, or at least a bigger base.

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The 5-year chart shows a big overhead supply in 2014 into 2015. This is building a base now, and needs to break above $5.70 before it is out of the woods. The jury is still out on this one. You want to see a breakout of $5.70, or at least a bigger base.

SELL
SELL
September 15, 2016

He has a short position in this one. They have some legacy issues. Independent brokers in Canada are not a particularly good place to be.

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He has a short position in this one. They have some legacy issues. Independent brokers in Canada are not a particularly good place to be.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 27, 2016

One of Canada’s 2 publicly traded brokerage firms. Well diversified with retail, institutional, investment banking and advising business. It has gone through a big restructuring in the last few years. The brokerage industry globally is facing a lot of challenges. It isn’t as profitable as it once was. This one has been very fortunate in being diversified across different industries, but do have a substantial amount of their assets in the UK, and are directly impacted by what has happened with BREXIT. That will impact their profitability and their asset base. He likes this name and it is extremely cheap. Trades at a significant discount to its BV.

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One of Canada’s 2 publicly traded brokerage firms. Well diversified with retail, institutional, investment banking and advising business. It has gone through a big restructuring in the last few years. The brokerage industry globally is facing a lot of challenges. It isn’t as profitable as it once was. This one has been very fortunate in being diversified across different industries, but do have a substantial amount of their assets in the UK, and are directly impacted by what has happened with BREXIT. That will impact their profitability and their asset base. He likes this name and it is extremely cheap. Trades at a significant discount to its BV.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 19, 2016

The whole Canadian independent brokerage sector is under extreme pressure. They now got rid of a lot of acquisitions. Unless the resource sector comes back, they are faced with headaches.

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The whole Canadian independent brokerage sector is under extreme pressure. They now got rid of a lot of acquisitions. Unless the resource sector comes back, they are faced with headaches.

WATCH
WATCH
October 30, 2015

A very volatile stock and trades a lot with commodity pricing. They also have the retail franchise which has about $9 billion in assets, but doesn’t seem to generate too much cash. This is going to move a lot with the S&P 500 and the TSX. It is also going to move along with the sub indices of energy and materials. Soon as you start seeing that turn around, that is when you want to start making an investment.

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A very volatile stock and trades a lot with commodity pricing. They also have the retail franchise which has about $9 billion in assets, but doesn’t seem to generate too much cash. This is going to move a lot with the S&P 500 and the TSX. It is also going to move along with the sub indices of energy and materials. Soon as you start seeing that turn around, that is when you want to start making an investment.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 15, 2015

Generally speaking the Canadian capital markets are undergoing a very difficult period of time and have been for a while. This is in a very challenged environment and there is not much of a growth outlook. Expects there will be more mergers and consolidations, and it is going to be awhile. If he were going to play a Canadian non-bank financial, it would be something like an Investors Group.

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Generally speaking the Canadian capital markets are undergoing a very difficult period of time and have been for a while. This is in a very challenged environment and there is not much of a growth outlook. Expects there will be more mergers and consolidations, and it is going to be awhile. If he were going to play a Canadian non-bank financial, it would be something like an Investors Group.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 17, 2015

Held this about 6 months ago before the market turned down. From the lows, it has had a pretty nice jump off the bottom. They do make money, but it is a very cyclical company. They generate returns based on the energy market, materials market such as gold, and how many deals they do. Also, have a lot of investment advisors. He likes their overall business, but you can’t hold this for the long-term because it is always going to have its ups and downs. Pays a reasonable dividend. If there is a potential of a big move down in the market, this is not a name you want to be in.

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Held this about 6 months ago before the market turned down. From the lows, it has had a pretty nice jump off the bottom. They do make money, but it is a very cyclical company. They generate returns based on the energy market, materials market such as gold, and how many deals they do. Also, have a lot of investment advisors. He likes their overall business, but you can’t hold this for the long-term because it is always going to have its ups and downs. Pays a reasonable dividend. If there is a potential of a big move down in the market, this is not a name you want to be in.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 15, 2015

A very, very cheap company and trading almost below its BV and almost below its cash value as well. They are very highly tuned to the capital market, particularly the Junior markets in terms of technology and resources. He really doesn’t know why investors are not appreciating the stock. It has high leverage to capital markets, a great balance sheet, and great earnings potential if things go well, and as these finances come back, their leverage on investment banking fees and advisory work is very, very big. Good company.

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A very, very cheap company and trading almost below its BV and almost below its cash value as well. They are very highly tuned to the capital market, particularly the Junior markets in terms of technology and resources. He really doesn’t know why investors are not appreciating the stock. It has high leverage to capital markets, a great balance sheet, and great earnings potential if things go well, and as these finances come back, their leverage on investment banking fees and advisory work is very, very big. Good company.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 5, 2015

Had a Short on this and just covered it in the last couple of days. His issue is that the ROE is really, really modest. They have a capital base of about $1.1 billion of equity and are on target to make $35 million. That is a 3.5% return. When you are doing this kind of return on that kind of capital, you won’t trade at BV. The rough rule of thumb in Canada is that if you have an 8% ROE, you will trade at Book, 16% ROE you will trade at 2X Book, etc. This company’s average is around 4%, so that should trade at around .5X Book, and their average is about .6X Book right now. They have to become much more capital efficient. If there is a little bit of a rally in this company and if you own, he would recommend that you Sell.

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Had a Short on this and just covered it in the last couple of days. His issue is that the ROE is really, really modest. They have a capital base of about $1.1 billion of equity and are on target to make $35 million. That is a 3.5% return. When you are doing this kind of return on that kind of capital, you won’t trade at BV. The rough rule of thumb in Canada is that if you have an 8% ROE, you will trade at Book, 16% ROE you will trade at 2X Book, etc. This company’s average is around 4%, so that should trade at around .5X Book, and their average is about .6X Book right now. They have to become much more capital efficient. If there is a little bit of a rally in this company and if you own, he would recommend that you Sell.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 4, 2015

(Top Pick Feb 4/14, Up 1.33%) They have tons of cash and are trading below book value. It is a very attractive company from a valuation perspective. You need the growth in mergers and financings, which we have seen in the last week. Their costs are variable and you have to watch them.

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(Top Pick Feb 4/14, Up 1.33%) They have tons of cash and are trading below book value. It is a very attractive company from a valuation perspective. You need the growth in mergers and financings, which we have seen in the last week. Their costs are variable and you have to watch them.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 26, 2015

(Top Pick Jan 10/14, Down 6.92%) They are geared to a commodity market. They performed well the first half of the year. He took half his position off since. Continue to hold it or buy more.

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(Top Pick Jan 10/14, Down 6.92%) They are geared to a commodity market. They performed well the first half of the year. He took half his position off since. Continue to hold it or buy more.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 22, 2015

Largest free broker left in Canada. Times are not good for independent brokers because of problems in the oil sector where it is hard to do new issues. The yield is okay. You are better in a bank or insurance company, however.

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Largest free broker left in Canada. Times are not good for independent brokers because of problems in the oil sector where it is hard to do new issues. The yield is okay. You are better in a bank or insurance company, however.

BUY
BUY
December 16, 2014

This stock is highly correlated to the stock market. Trading below book value right now. Now is probably a pretty good time to buy. It is very dependent on the market.

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This stock is highly correlated to the stock market. Trading below book value right now. Now is probably a pretty good time to buy. It is very dependent on the market.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 9, 2014

(A Top Pick Jan 10/14. Up 5.97%.) Had anticipated better times and a better year, which he got. Bought more in January, but sold about half his holdings in the $12 area. Today it is trading at about 8X BV, which is when you buy brokers, not when you sell them. It is now becoming very interesting. Close to a 4% dividend yield and management is buying back stock. This would be on his radar screen to pick away at.

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(A Top Pick Jan 10/14. Up 5.97%.) Had anticipated better times and a better year, which he got. Bought more in January, but sold about half his holdings in the $12 area. Today it is trading at about 8X BV, which is when you buy brokers, not when you sell them. It is now becoming very interesting. Close to a 4% dividend yield and management is buying back stock. This would be on his radar screen to pick away at.

PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
August 11, 2014

Brokerage firm profits will go up and down with the general level of the stock market. Highly cyclical businesses. This one has had a big run. They were involved in a very, very large financing, and a lot of investors bought the stock in advance of them reporting their earnings. Generally you want to buy these stocks when the stock market is on its knees. You are in late stage innings. Financing could continue, but it is highly competitive right now. You are into a late, late stage of the game. If you own, consider trimming at least half your position.

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Brokerage firm profits will go up and down with the general level of the stock market. Highly cyclical businesses. This one has had a big run. They were involved in a very, very large financing, and a lot of investors bought the stock in advance of them reporting their earnings. Generally you want to buy these stocks when the stock market is on its knees. You are in late stage innings. Financing could continue, but it is highly competitive right now. You are into a late, late stage of the game. If you own, consider trimming at least half your position.

WATCH
WATCH
August 6, 2014

Has mixed feelings. Had hoped to see a revival in the IPO market and the resource sector, where these mid-tier firms in Canada historically made their money. He would be patient and wouldn’t rush right in. They may have another difficult quarter. Put it on your Watch List and see if you can pick it up after their Q3.

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Has mixed feelings. Had hoped to see a revival in the IPO market and the resource sector, where these mid-tier firms in Canada historically made their money. He would be patient and wouldn’t rush right in. They may have another difficult quarter. Put it on your Watch List and see if you can pick it up after their Q3.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 16, 2014

Very interesting brokerage firm and a decent company. A sub segment of financial services from a public market perspective that he is not terribly keen about. Majority of investment/brokerages are silent partnerships. A shorter-term oriented industry with very highly paid employees. Whether they are public or private, they demand very high compensation. The downside is that they are using the public’s money to leverage their business. Prefers other areas of financial services, but in the short term this is a good investment, but be ready to pull the trigger and Sell.

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Very interesting brokerage firm and a decent company. A sub segment of financial services from a public market perspective that he is not terribly keen about. Majority of investment/brokerages are silent partnerships. A shorter-term oriented industry with very highly paid employees. Whether they are public or private, they demand very high compensation. The downside is that they are using the public’s money to leverage their business. Prefers other areas of financial services, but in the short term this is a good investment, but be ready to pull the trigger and Sell.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 4, 2014

This is more of a cyclical in the sense that it is geared to markets. Quadrupled their earnings from last year. This is your senior, independent of the banks, investment banking company. Should continue to do very well.

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This is more of a cyclical in the sense that it is geared to markets. Quadrupled their earnings from last year. This is your senior, independent of the banks, investment banking company. Should continue to do very well.

HOLD
HOLD
May 8, 2014

Was one of his top picks in the past. It was too cheap and trading below its book value. In ’08 everyone didn’t like the company, but the market bottomed and then there were lots of financings last year and CF is knocking it out of the park now. He would hold it a little bit longer.

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Was one of his top picks in the past. It was too cheap and trading below its book value. In ’08 everyone didn’t like the company, but the market bottomed and then there were lots of financings last year and CF is knocking it out of the park now. He would hold it a little bit longer.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 24, 2014

Preferred. Never average down. This is not a fixed income investment. You get a better yield than the common.

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Preferred. Never average down. This is not a fixed income investment. You get a better yield than the common.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 4, 2014

This is a capital markets play. He rates this as a B-. Valuation is very attractive. BV is $8 a share so it is trading below Book Value. Every 2 weeks they announce how many shares they bought back with their cash. They have $360 million in cash. Starting to see pick up in financing activity. Even the gold sector is starting to do some capital market raises. Their international presence is impressive. If the market does well, financings will pick back up. Yield of 2.98%.

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This is a capital markets play. He rates this as a B-. Valuation is very attractive. BV is $8 a share so it is trading below Book Value. Every 2 weeks they announce how many shares they bought back with their cash. They have $360 million in cash. Starting to see pick up in financing activity. Even the gold sector is starting to do some capital market raises. Their international presence is impressive. If the market does well, financings will pick back up. Yield of 2.98%.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 3, 2014

(A Top Pick Dec 21/12. Up 13.31%.) This is a stock that is hard to get out of. When it doesn’t go up or down, it is hard to make a decision. He’ll probably get out of this, probably very soon. Very sensitive to the financial markets.

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(A Top Pick Dec 21/12. Up 13.31%.) This is a stock that is hard to get out of. When it doesn’t go up or down, it is hard to make a decision. He’ll probably get out of this, probably very soon. Very sensitive to the financial markets.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 15, 2014

These brokerage specific companies are facing some pretty tough challenges. From the regulatory side and on the market for smaller cap issues, which has been dormant. This should be prone to pick up. If you are looking for a higher risk financial play, this is it. There is probably a lot of reward in it, but there is also a lot of risk. Thinks you can get the same exposure, but through the banks with a lot lower risk profile. Dividend yield of 2.77%.

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These brokerage specific companies are facing some pretty tough challenges. From the regulatory side and on the market for smaller cap issues, which has been dormant. This should be prone to pick up. If you are looking for a higher risk financial play, this is it. There is probably a lot of reward in it, but there is also a lot of risk. Thinks you can get the same exposure, but through the banks with a lot lower risk profile. Dividend yield of 2.77%.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 10, 2014

(A Top Pick Jan 8/13. Down 1.51%.) Really didn’t get their act together this year. He was disappointed in management. These guys are stockbrokers and know what works. A lot of insider buying. This is a good leading indicator. Still very cheap. Didn’t participate in the capital market brokers’ led rally. Yield of 2.88%.

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