Boston Pizza Royalties

BPF.UN-T

Analysis and Opinions about BPF.UN-T

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Opinion
Expert
PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
January 21, 2020

Pizza is a challenging space and BPF doesn't execute as well as, say, McDonald's. BPF's 3-year chart shows it's still in a downtrend. The current stock bounce is an opportunity to sell, not buy.

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Pizza is a challenging space and BPF doesn't execute as well as, say, McDonald's. BPF's 3-year chart shows it's still in a downtrend. The current stock bounce is an opportunity to sell, not buy.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 26, 2019
There’s a broader industry trend in casual dining. It’s tougher for restaurants to make money. Trends are going towards delivery services and restaurants should use these to be competitive. However, there is a hit on the margin because there isn’t alcohol sales when delivered. Maybe the concept is a little tired.
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There’s a broader industry trend in casual dining. It’s tougher for restaurants to make money. Trends are going towards delivery services and restaurants should use these to be competitive. However, there is a hit on the margin because there isn’t alcohol sales when delivered. Maybe the concept is a little tired.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 18, 2019
The concern is the 8.2% yield at 85% payout. It may be sustainable. Earnings estimates have been shaved by 2% in the last 90 days. Growth is forecast to drop. It is 5 times PE to Growth next year so he prefers others.
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The concern is the 8.2% yield at 85% payout. It may be sustainable. Earnings estimates have been shaved by 2% in the last 90 days. Growth is forecast to drop. It is 5 times PE to Growth next year so he prefers others.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 8, 2019
It pays an 8% yield but has fallen more than that the past year. The trend says lower lows and lower highs. Not attractive. It's approaching and reacting to its 200-day moving average.
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It pays an 8% yield but has fallen more than that the past year. The trend says lower lows and lower highs. Not attractive. It's approaching and reacting to its 200-day moving average.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 17, 2019
It was one of the original restaurant royalty income companies. They have expanded quite rapidly. Their same store sales growth has been slowing and their payout ratio is slightly over 100%. He prefers to own the whole company and see it reinvesting in the business.
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It was one of the original restaurant royalty income companies. They have expanded quite rapidly. Their same store sales growth has been slowing and their payout ratio is slightly over 100%. He prefers to own the whole company and see it reinvesting in the business.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 15, 2018
It is an okay company but same store sales growth is anemic. He prefers AW.UN-T. BPF.UN-T is okay for income but not for growth.
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It is an okay company but same store sales growth is anemic. He prefers AW.UN-T. BPF.UN-T is okay for income but not for growth.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 26, 2018

He has a small short on this. He is not worried about the sustainability of the dividend as this used to trade as a royalty income fund as all the cash flow is paid as dividends. Overall he sees mid-sized Canadian consumer companies at risk in general, especially if the real estate market rolls over. Yield 7%.

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He has a small short on this. He is not worried about the sustainability of the dividend as this used to trade as a royalty income fund as all the cash flow is paid as dividends. Overall he sees mid-sized Canadian consumer companies at risk in general, especially if the real estate market rolls over. Yield 7%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 2, 2017

Good distribution. His main concern is that this would be a little more sensitive to an economic downturn because receipts for company like this are going to be higher than something like an A&W. He would be fine with this holding. 6.2% dividend yield.

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Good distribution. His main concern is that this would be a little more sensitive to an economic downturn because receipts for company like this are going to be higher than something like an A&W. He would be fine with this holding. 6.2% dividend yield.

HOLD
HOLD
May 26, 2017

Pizza companies do have different structures. Sometimes they are owners, and sometimes they are franchises. He thinks this is a good, long term hold. Good dividend.

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Pizza companies do have different structures. Sometimes they are owners, and sometimes they are franchises. He thinks this is a good, long term hold. Good dividend.

BUY
BUY
September 9, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) He likes the restaurant business. (See Top Picks.)

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(Market Call Minute.) He likes the restaurant business. (See Top Picks.)

HOLD
HOLD
July 27, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) If it pulled back, it would be something he would add to.

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(Market Call Minute.) If it pulled back, it would be something he would add to.

BUY
BUY
May 25, 2016

This is a pretty good entry point. If you can be patient, pick away at it through the summer, which might be a good way to accumulate a position.

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This is a pretty good entry point. If you can be patient, pick away at it through the summer, which might be a good way to accumulate a position.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 8, 2016

Boston Pizza Royalties (BPF.UN-T) or Brookfield Property Partners (BPY.UN-T)? 2 very disparate companies. This one has a very strong yield. As a royalty, it pays out a lot of its earnings back to investors, while the other has not as big a dividend, but has more room to grow it. He would tend to own the one that has the opportunity to grow its earnings, which is probably going to win most of the time. If he had to pick one of the 2, he would go with Brookfield.

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Boston Pizza Royalties (BPF.UN-T) or Brookfield Property Partners (BPY.UN-T)? 2 very disparate companies. This one has a very strong yield. As a royalty, it pays out a lot of its earnings back to investors, while the other has not as big a dividend, but has more room to grow it. He would tend to own the one that has the opportunity to grow its earnings, which is probably going to win most of the time. If he had to pick one of the 2, he would go with Brookfield.

PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
January 11, 2016

It is difficult to predict where the consumer is going to channel their preferences. With a slowdown, consumer sensitive stocks have more risk than they ever have. He would consider trimming your position.

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It is difficult to predict where the consumer is going to channel their preferences. With a slowdown, consumer sensitive stocks have more risk than they ever have. He would consider trimming your position.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 11, 2015

Had a very soft quarter. A big chunk of their business comes out of Alberta and sales have been slow in that part of the country. Wait on the sidelines until you see what happens in the Alberta market. (See Top Picks.)

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Had a very soft quarter. A big chunk of their business comes out of Alberta and sales have been slow in that part of the country. Wait on the sidelines until you see what happens in the Alberta market. (See Top Picks.)

BUY
BUY
May 14, 2015

He is very comfortable with it and has a yield over 6.5%.

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He is very comfortable with it and has a yield over 6.5%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 31, 2014

There is fierce competition in the entire food sector.

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There is fierce competition in the entire food sector.

BUY
BUY
March 6, 2014

Fantastic management. Looks for accelerated earnings growth, but they have every consistent growth. 5.9% growth.

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Fantastic management. Looks for accelerated earnings growth, but they have every consistent growth. 5.9% growth.

BUY
BUY
November 25, 2013

(Market Call Minute) Play on quick serve sit-down restaurants. Very good at what it does.

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(Market Call Minute) Play on quick serve sit-down restaurants. Very good at what it does.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 30, 2013

Have done a fantastic job of growing same-store sales in the 2%-3% range, which is pretty good in a somewhat tough economy. This is kind of a hangover from the income trust era. Pays on virtually all of its earnings to shareholders and holds nothing back. His concern is that when interest rates start to rise, it’s a dividend stock, and that could cause it to drop a little bit. Also, if they need to invest more capital, that might imply a cut to the dividend at some point, but certainly not on the horizon. Doesn’t see a lot of upside from here.

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Have done a fantastic job of growing same-store sales in the 2%-3% range, which is pretty good in a somewhat tough economy. This is kind of a hangover from the income trust era. Pays on virtually all of its earnings to shareholders and holds nothing back. His concern is that when interest rates start to rise, it’s a dividend stock, and that could cause it to drop a little bit. Also, if they need to invest more capital, that might imply a cut to the dividend at some point, but certainly not on the horizon. Doesn’t see a lot of upside from here.

HOLD
HOLD
March 21, 2013

Has gone up about 4% in the last 10 days or so. They are able to buy back 7500 shares per day, a quarter of what is being traded. What does this mean and how should a 2% trailing stop be managed? The generally accepted rule is that a share buyback is a sign that management believes the company is undervalued and they are exercising their right to buy shares back while they are still cheap. Sit back and enjoy the ride as the share price goes up.

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Has gone up about 4% in the last 10 days or so. They are able to buy back 7500 shares per day, a quarter of what is being traded. What does this mean and how should a 2% trailing stop be managed? The generally accepted rule is that a share buyback is a sign that management believes the company is undervalued and they are exercising their right to buy shares back while they are still cheap. Sit back and enjoy the ride as the share price goes up.

PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
February 21, 2013

A royalty business and they don’t actually do anything, just sell franchises. As new restaurants mature, they get put into the pool. Wonderful business. Not growing very quickly and given the appreciation of the stock price, he wouldn’t be a very aggressive buyer here. 5.8% yield.

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A royalty business and they don’t actually do anything, just sell franchises. As new restaurants mature, they get put into the pool. Wonderful business. Not growing very quickly and given the appreciation of the stock price, he wouldn’t be a very aggressive buyer here. 5.8% yield.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 21, 2012

This is a franchise that is growing very, very nicely from a same store sales perspective. Well managed. 6.6% dividend.

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This is a franchise that is growing very, very nicely from a same store sales perspective. Well managed. 6.6% dividend.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 5, 2012
Boston Pizza or Pizza Pizza? Doesn’t follow either one. Boston Pizza has a better in store model. There is a huge hunger for yield.
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Boston Pizza or Pizza Pizza? Doesn’t follow either one. Boston Pizza has a better in store model. There is a huge hunger for yield.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 12, 2012
Whenever possible, he likes to own the parent company, which is private. Their payout ratio is very high. He prefers Pizza Pizza (PZA.UN-T) and A&W (AW.UN-T).
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Whenever possible, he likes to own the parent company, which is private. Their payout ratio is very high. He prefers Pizza Pizza (PZA.UN-T) and A&W (AW.UN-T).
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 23, 2010
Management are selling some shares. They will be faced with taxes in 2011 at 26-30%.
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Management are selling some shares. They will be faced with taxes in 2011 at 26-30%.
HOLD
HOLD
November 23, 2009
Likely to cut payout by 30%-35% when they convert to a corporation. Expect they have had shrinkage but are still earning their distributions. Still likes the underlying business.
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Likely to cut payout by 30%-35% when they convert to a corporation. Expect they have had shrinkage but are still earning their distributions. Still likes the underlying business.
HOLD
HOLD
December 8, 2008
Very solid management team. Names like this are going to be under some pressure as it is not high-end or low like McDonald's. Decent balance sheet.
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Very solid management team. Names like this are going to be under some pressure as it is not high-end or low like McDonald's. Decent balance sheet.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 4, 2008
The problem with this and a lot of other restaurant royalty/income trust is the moving towards conversion time. They basically have 24 months to resolve how they are going to restructure. His fear is that until that is done, these are dead money.
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The problem with this and a lot of other restaurant royalty/income trust is the moving towards conversion time. They basically have 24 months to resolve how they are going to restructure. His fear is that until that is done, these are dead money.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 19, 2008
Casual dining. Will have to change their structure in 2011. Some new stores are cannibalizing some of the older ones. Prefers others such as Pizza Pizza (PZA.UN-T).
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Casual dining. Will have to change their structure in 2011. Some new stores are cannibalizing some of the older ones. Prefers others such as Pizza Pizza (PZA.UN-T).
BUY
BUY
August 12, 2008
Restaurant sector in North America has been hurting. Same-store sales growth in this company continues to be positive. Has shrunk for now and will probably stay on the low level until the economy starts to pick up. Great franchise.
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Restaurant sector in North America has been hurting. Same-store sales growth in this company continues to be positive. Has shrunk for now and will probably stay on the low level until the economy starts to pick up. Great franchise.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 28, 2008
A trust that never recovered from the government's taxation on income trusts. The best restaurant income trust. They have the best same-store sales growth. In a sweet spot that when customers feel good about themselves they trade up from fast food but when the economy starts to slow, they trade down from fancier restaurants. Almost 12% distribution.
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A trust that never recovered from the government's taxation on income trusts. The best restaurant income trust. They have the best same-store sales growth. In a sweet spot that when customers feel good about themselves they trade up from fast food but when the economy starts to slow, they trade down from fancier restaurants. Almost 12% distribution.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2008
Good trust for current economic conditions. Doesn't know what their strategy is, i.e. converting to a corporate structure or leaving it in the current format. If they convert, will their cash flow increase sufficiently that the increase between now and 2011 will more than offset the tax implementations.
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Good trust for current economic conditions. Doesn't know what their strategy is, i.e. converting to a corporate structure or leaving it in the current format. If they convert, will their cash flow increase sufficiently that the increase between now and 2011 will more than offset the tax implementations.
BUY
BUY
January 21, 2008
Very capable management team. Market is worried if the growth pattern is sustainable in the present economic environment. Excellent royalty trust if you want to be in the restaurant space, but you may see some weakness in same-store sales growth. 11.5% distribution should be safe and continue after 2011 changes in trusts.
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Very capable management team. Market is worried if the growth pattern is sustainable in the present economic environment. Excellent royalty trust if you want to be in the restaurant space, but you may see some weakness in same-store sales growth. 11.5% distribution should be safe and continue after 2011 changes in trusts.
BUY
BUY
November 2, 2007
He’s quite positive at these levels. Has a concentration in western Canada.
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He’s quite positive at these levels. Has a concentration in western Canada.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 21, 2007
Has always been one of the highest value names because it is recognized as an almost pure Western Canada play. Have enjoyed some of the highest same-store sales growth because of the Western economy. However, a lot of that has already been reflected in the price.
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Has always been one of the highest value names because it is recognized as an almost pure Western Canada play. Have enjoyed some of the highest same-store sales growth because of the Western economy. However, a lot of that has already been reflected in the price.
BUY
BUY
June 8, 2007
Resturant royalty trusts are a beautiful thing. You won't find a better more stable cash flow anywhere. He will buy at $15.10 He thinks they are fairly valued but will be rock solid during the coming turbulence.
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Resturant royalty trusts are a beautiful thing. You won't find a better more stable cash flow anywhere. He will buy at $15.10 He thinks they are fairly valued but will be rock solid during the coming turbulence.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 9, 2007
Royalty trust where they earn royalties on sales on the underlying restaurant. One of the fastest-growing franchise restaurant brands in Canada. Expects this will continue, but same-store sales growth has been slowing. Expensive relative to their peers. Cautious on what the tax impact is going to be going out to 2011.
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Royalty trust where they earn royalties on sales on the underlying restaurant. One of the fastest-growing franchise restaurant brands in Canada. Expects this will continue, but same-store sales growth has been slowing. Expensive relative to their peers. Cautious on what the tax impact is going to be going out to 2011.
BUY
BUY
March 2, 2007
Very solid management team. Tremendous amount of restaurants across Canada. Growth pattern is going to continue to be very good.
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Very solid management team. Tremendous amount of restaurants across Canada. Growth pattern is going to continue to be very good.
BUY
BUY
November 17, 2006
A spectacularly successful company that is in a growth mode. Very well-run.
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A spectacularly successful company that is in a growth mode. Very well-run.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 20, 2006
Not a fan of restaurants. This one has been an anomaly in that it has performed well. Low cost product, so margins are high. Have had a great run, so if you own, you might want to take some profit.
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