Chartwell Seniors Housing

CSH.UN-T

TSE:CSH.UN

8.63
0.32 (3.58%)
Chartwell Retirement Residences is the largest participant in the Canadian seniors housing sector, with nearly 180 locations across Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia.
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Analysis and Opinions about CSH.UN-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 23, 2014

A good story. He is modeling 7% compounded annual growth. Sees a strong 2nd half coming from ramped up sales and marketing. Have had this really nice strategy of recycling capital from non-core properties and putting them into higher quality, which should continue to drive multiple expansion. It is a potential takeover target. Long term tailwinds of seniors’ assisted living. He would try to buy it on a bit of a pullback.

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A good story. He is modeling 7% compounded annual growth. Sees a strong 2nd half coming from ramped up sales and marketing. Have had this really nice strategy of recycling capital from non-core properties and putting them into higher quality, which should continue to drive multiple expansion. It is a potential takeover target. Long term tailwinds of seniors’ assisted living. He would try to buy it on a bit of a pullback.

BUY
BUY
October 2, 2014

A great demographic play. The population in that range will double over the next 10 years. In the last 4 years we have seen a 10% increase in costs. This year we should see a greater increase in demand growth than supply growth.

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A great demographic play. The population in that range will double over the next 10 years. In the last 4 years we have seen a 10% increase in costs. This year we should see a greater increase in demand growth than supply growth.

Andy Nasr

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Price
$10.910
Owned
Unknown
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
September 25, 2014

She likes it. One of the better REITS to buy in this environment. Less interest rate sensitive. They can pass through inflation increases to customers. They have improved operational performance under their new CEO and they have new runway. They ate their way through supply and demand issues. They are at 89% occupancy. Payout is reasonable and they might increase it next year. One of the better companies in the group. 5% yield is absolutely sustainable. A little room for capital appreciation. There has been a lot of M&A activity in the US in this area.

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She likes it. One of the better REITS to buy in this environment. Less interest rate sensitive. They can pass through inflation increases to customers. They have improved operational performance under their new CEO and they have new runway. They ate their way through supply and demand issues. They are at 89% occupancy. Payout is reasonable and they might increase it next year. One of the better companies in the group. 5% yield is absolutely sustainable. A little room for capital appreciation. There has been a lot of M&A activity in the US in this area.

BUY
BUY
September 17, 2014

In a rate rising scenario, you are locked in to your contracts. These are longer-term in nature. She feels this one can manage through a higher rate environment. These are retirement residences and because of deaths their portfolio is culled continuously and they can adjust to a higher rate environment. This has 90% occupancy.

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In a rate rising scenario, you are locked in to your contracts. These are longer-term in nature. She feels this one can manage through a higher rate environment. These are retirement residences and because of deaths their portfolio is culled continuously and they can adjust to a higher rate environment. This has 90% occupancy.

BUY
BUY
September 10, 2014

Finally sold their US exposure last year. Now they are the only platform to have seniors and nursing homes nationally. They are the largest one out there. The Canadian market is the best one out there. They are now executing better. It could be a takeout target. Canadian senior’s residences are a better platform that in the US. It will be higher next year.

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Finally sold their US exposure last year. Now they are the only platform to have seniors and nursing homes nationally. They are the largest one out there. The Canadian market is the best one out there. They are now executing better. It could be a takeout target. Canadian senior’s residences are a better platform that in the US. It will be higher next year.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 5, 2014

It has done well so there won’t be much tax loss selling this year. Demographics are working for them. Also, American companies are coming in and buying this kind of company. A long term hold that he adds to on weakness.

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It has done well so there won’t be much tax loss selling this year. Demographics are working for them. Also, American companies are coming in and buying this kind of company. A long term hold that he adds to on weakness.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 19, 2014

(Top Pick Aug 16/13, Up 27.94%) We saw the pull back in REITs last spring. She expects that rates will slowly climb up, but no spikes. She likes seniors housing. Nice yield and lots of M&A activity in larger US healthcare REITs. They are looking to Canada. CSH are overdue to raise their dividend.

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(Top Pick Aug 16/13, Up 27.94%) We saw the pull back in REITs last spring. She expects that rates will slowly climb up, but no spikes. She likes seniors housing. Nice yield and lots of M&A activity in larger US healthcare REITs. They are looking to Canada. CSH are overdue to raise their dividend.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 12, 2014

He really likes the seniors housing sector because of demographics. The number of people over 75 in Canada is going to increase by 50% during the next 10 years, which should create a lot of demand for seniors housing. Had a very sloppy quarter and he is surprised the stock has held in as well as it has.

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He really likes the seniors housing sector because of demographics. The number of people over 75 in Canada is going to increase by 50% during the next 10 years, which should create a lot of demand for seniors housing. Had a very sloppy quarter and he is surprised the stock has held in as well as it has.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 15, 2014

Seniors living. We have an aging population. They are getting older, but want to continue to enjoy their life. This gives them a wonderful place to live. Beautiful properties and cash flow. He is seeing a lot of activity involving US players coming into Canada. Stock came off recently and he has been adding to it.

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Seniors living. We have an aging population. They are getting older, but want to continue to enjoy their life. This gives them a wonderful place to live. Beautiful properties and cash flow. He is seeing a lot of activity involving US players coming into Canada. Stock came off recently and he has been adding to it.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
July 9, 2014

Done a very good job and focused on balance sheet and payout ratio, reducing it to 80% last year. You may not see a distribution increase this year as they use cash on the balance sheet for growth. They have projects on the go that will contribute to free cash flow. Anyone owning seniors residences could be in play as a result of changes in the US.

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Done a very good job and focused on balance sheet and payout ratio, reducing it to 80% last year. You may not see a distribution increase this year as they use cash on the balance sheet for growth. They have projects on the go that will contribute to free cash flow. Anyone owning seniors residences could be in play as a result of changes in the US.

BUY
BUY
July 8, 2014

Likes it here. It pulled back a little. Likes the sector because of demographics and penetration is really quite low. Expanding rapidly in the US. They are selling off non-core areas of the US and reinvesting in Canada. Attractive yield of about 4.5%. Expects towards the end of this year they could increase distribution. They have the ability to increase occupancy.

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Likes it here. It pulled back a little. Likes the sector because of demographics and penetration is really quite low. Expanding rapidly in the US. They are selling off non-core areas of the US and reinvesting in Canada. Attractive yield of about 4.5%. Expects towards the end of this year they could increase distribution. They have the ability to increase occupancy.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 6, 2014

(A Top Pick May 7/13. Down 3.96%.) Operationally, the company is doing what it is saying it is going to do, i.e., improve occupancy and focus on certain areas in the US and sell off properties they don’t want. Stock got hit last spring when interest rates pulled back. Has recovered some of its ground, but not to the full extent. She still likes it. Provides a yield in excess of 5%.

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(A Top Pick May 7/13. Down 3.96%.) Operationally, the company is doing what it is saying it is going to do, i.e., improve occupancy and focus on certain areas in the US and sell off properties they don’t want. Stock got hit last spring when interest rates pulled back. Has recovered some of its ground, but not to the full extent. She still likes it. Provides a yield in excess of 5%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 5, 2014

Trading at about 14X AFFO and doesn’t trade at a discount to NAV, which you always like to see. This had so many problems back in 2008-2009 with its US exposure. Senior retirement area is hard, but is much harder when you are dealing with US properties. However, they have divested a lot of the US holdings. Management is a lot better than it was, but he still shies away. He would prefer Leisure World (LW-T) which is focused in Ontario.

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Trading at about 14X AFFO and doesn’t trade at a discount to NAV, which you always like to see. This had so many problems back in 2008-2009 with its US exposure. Senior retirement area is hard, but is much harder when you are dealing with US properties. However, they have divested a lot of the US holdings. Management is a lot better than it was, but he still shies away. He would prefer Leisure World (LW-T) which is focused in Ontario.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 29, 2014

A core strategy. This is a no brainer, assuming they don’t screw it up. The key is focusing on the operations and making sure they take care of our older ones. You have that demographic flow behind them. It is a great sector to be in. This is the growth side. US REITs are saying they want to come to our market. This one is undervalued. US interest creates a great floor for this one. If it went cheap it would get snapped up.

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A core strategy. This is a no brainer, assuming they don’t screw it up. The key is focusing on the operations and making sure they take care of our older ones. You have that demographic flow behind them. It is a great sector to be in. This is the growth side. US REITs are saying they want to come to our market. This one is undervalued. US interest creates a great floor for this one. If it went cheap it would get snapped up.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 1, 2014

(A Top Pick April 9/13. Down 4.55%.) Got hit with the rising rates, as all REITs did. Likes the senior housing industry and they are a dominant player. The demographics are working in their favour. Occupancy is still below where they were in prior peaks. Likes that management is focusing on Canada for growth. Yield of about 5.2%.

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(A Top Pick April 9/13. Down 4.55%.) Got hit with the rising rates, as all REITs did. Likes the senior housing industry and they are a dominant player. The demographics are working in their favour. Occupancy is still below where they were in prior peaks. Likes that management is focusing on Canada for growth. Yield of about 5.2%.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 27, 2014

Likes it and would be buying it here. Great secular growth. Lots of people getting older and will end up in seniors’ residences. They increased capacity and therefore did not increase occupancy recently. If it gets into the $9.50 range he would see someone taking them out.

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Likes it and would be buying it here. Great secular growth. Lots of people getting older and will end up in seniors’ residences. They increased capacity and therefore did not increase occupancy recently. If it gets into the $9.50 range he would see someone taking them out.

BUY
BUY
March 20, 2014

One of the names he would be buying in the REIT sector. Stumbled a little with occupancy, but are already taking initiatives to meet that. Have been selling non-core assets, which is making their balance sheet better. Growing at about 8.5% compounded annually versus the REITs at around 5%. Trading below a multiple market valuation of 13.9% versus the REITs at around 14.2%.

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One of the names he would be buying in the REIT sector. Stumbled a little with occupancy, but are already taking initiatives to meet that. Have been selling non-core assets, which is making their balance sheet better. Growing at about 8.5% compounded annually versus the REITs at around 5%. Trading below a multiple market valuation of 13.9% versus the REITs at around 14.2%.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 19, 2014

Likes management and what they have done to the business. This has been one of the REITs that has taken advantage of the climate that we saw coming out of the financial crisis with the demand for REITs. They have right sized the business when it comes to the quality of the assets, the balance sheet and their payout ratio. Looking at the business from what it was 5-6 years ago, it is a completely different business. A few years ago they had to cut the distribution twice because it was not sustainable. Had to get out of a mezzanine lending business for developments that were being done in the retirement space. Improved the quality of their assets by selling a portion of their portfolio. They do have some work to do in decreasing their leverage. Above average free cash flow growth forecast going into 2014. Dividend yield of 5.25%.

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Likes management and what they have done to the business. This has been one of the REITs that has taken advantage of the climate that we saw coming out of the financial crisis with the demand for REITs. They have right sized the business when it comes to the quality of the assets, the balance sheet and their payout ratio. Looking at the business from what it was 5-6 years ago, it is a completely different business. A few years ago they had to cut the distribution twice because it was not sustainable. Had to get out of a mezzanine lending business for developments that were being done in the retirement space. Improved the quality of their assets by selling a portion of their portfolio. They do have some work to do in decreasing their leverage. Above average free cash flow growth forecast going into 2014. Dividend yield of 5.25%.

BUY
BUY
February 28, 2014

Management has done a bunch of good things for this company. Paying down debt, increasing value add on properties through value add services. Should continue for couple of years yet.

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Management has done a bunch of good things for this company. Paying down debt, increasing value add on properties through value add services. Should continue for couple of years yet.

BUY
BUY
February 26, 2014

Interest rate concern will be trumped by the demographics. Excellent quality and they take Really good care of Moms and Dads. A solid company long term.

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Interest rate concern will be trumped by the demographics. Excellent quality and they take Really good care of Moms and Dads. A solid company long term.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 7, 2014

Doing a good job in repositioning their portfolio. Have been trying to sell some of their US assets. Have also re-jigged management contracts to get better profitability out of some of their US assets. Made a fairly large acquisition in Canada to increase their size and scale. In the last couple of years they have focused on operations and getting their operating costs and operating strategies in line and have done a very good job. Could be an acquisition target for some of the large US Seniors Housing REITs. Trajectory for earnings is quite good.

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Doing a good job in repositioning their portfolio. Have been trying to sell some of their US assets. Have also re-jigged management contracts to get better profitability out of some of their US assets. Made a fairly large acquisition in Canada to increase their size and scale. In the last couple of years they have focused on operations and getting their operating costs and operating strategies in line and have done a very good job. Could be an acquisition target for some of the large US Seniors Housing REITs. Trajectory for earnings is quite good.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 24, 2014

Continues to like this and it’s one of his largest REIT holdings. Fair value is $11.50-$12 but could be significantly higher if they eventually get acquired. Senior housing REITs Portfolios tend to be operating businesses so you have to watch as to how they manage their expenses. This sector and this one particularly are supported by longer-term solid demographics and, potentially, a lot of pent-up demand for seniors housing.

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Continues to like this and it’s one of his largest REIT holdings. Fair value is $11.50-$12 but could be significantly higher if they eventually get acquired. Senior housing REITs Portfolios tend to be operating businesses so you have to watch as to how they manage their expenses. This sector and this one particularly are supported by longer-term solid demographics and, potentially, a lot of pent-up demand for seniors housing.

BUY
BUY
January 17, 2014

Very well run REIT that focuses on the Canadian seniors housing market. Also, have US assets. In his view, this is the operator to own in the long-term care space. Dividend is safe and the balance sheet is good quality.

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Very well run REIT that focuses on the Canadian seniors housing market. Also, have US assets. In his view, this is the operator to own in the long-term care space. Dividend is safe and the balance sheet is good quality.

BUY
BUY
January 16, 2014

Leisure World (LW-T) or Chartwell (CSH.UN-T)? Likes both of these. This one has a very good growth rate of 8% versus the REITs of about 5.5%. Slightly less risk. Has a bigger geographical imprint and less regulatory risks.

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Leisure World (LW-T) or Chartwell (CSH.UN-T)? Likes both of these. This one has a very good growth rate of 8% versus the REITs of about 5.5%. Slightly less risk. Has a bigger geographical imprint and less regulatory risks.

BUY
BUY
January 7, 2014

You get a little bit of growth plus the yield. A pretty good operator. Owns the convertible debentures on this one. He likes it fine at this price. You won’t get double digits on this.

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You get a little bit of growth plus the yield. A pretty good operator. Owns the convertible debentures on this one. He likes it fine at this price. You won’t get double digits on this.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 15, 2013

(A Top Pick Nov 6/12. Up 5.3%.) Trimmed his position in May, not specific to the stock, but specific to the sector because he saw the avalanche that was waiting to happen. Just released their earnings, which looked reasonable but what concerned him a little, was that the organic growth was slowing. A reasonable stock at these levels, but not his favourite at this time.

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(A Top Pick Nov 6/12. Up 5.3%.) Trimmed his position in May, not specific to the stock, but specific to the sector because he saw the avalanche that was waiting to happen. Just released their earnings, which looked reasonable but what concerned him a little, was that the organic growth was slowing. A reasonable stock at these levels, but not his favourite at this time.

BUY
BUY
November 14, 2013

His preferred seniors REIT. Just reported and the numbers look pretty decent. Longer-term you want to invest in a company like this because of the demographic trends. You are going to see a significant increase in the number of people over 75 in Canada and that is going to create a lot of demand for seniors housing. In the last 3-4 years, some of the demand has been offset by excess supply. Supply growth was double digits a few years ago. It was 7% in 2012 and is now gradually declining to low single digits, which should mean that landlords should get some pricing power back during the next 3-4 years.

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His preferred seniors REIT. Just reported and the numbers look pretty decent. Longer-term you want to invest in a company like this because of the demographic trends. You are going to see a significant increase in the number of people over 75 in Canada and that is going to create a lot of demand for seniors housing. In the last 3-4 years, some of the demand has been offset by excess supply. Supply growth was double digits a few years ago. It was 7% in 2012 and is now gradually declining to low single digits, which should mean that landlords should get some pricing power back during the next 3-4 years.

BUY
BUY
October 4, 2013

Very good company. Has great scale. Since May-June this year, investors have shied away from REITs. There are still great companies that generate a tremendous amount of cash flow. For investors that want good cash and cash returns REITs should continue to be a good part of their portfolio.

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Very good company. Has great scale. Since May-June this year, investors have shied away from REITs. There are still great companies that generate a tremendous amount of cash flow. For investors that want good cash and cash returns REITs should continue to be a good part of their portfolio.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 2, 2013

With the market that is very skittish right now, you are probably going to be able to buy everything cheaper now. He sees this name as growing at around 10% versus the sector of around 7%. They continue to shed non-core assets and the balance sheet continues to improve. One of the few REITs that he feels comfortable with. Try to Buy under $10.

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With the market that is very skittish right now, you are probably going to be able to buy everything cheaper now. He sees this name as growing at around 10% versus the sector of around 7%. They continue to shed non-core assets and the balance sheet continues to improve. One of the few REITs that he feels comfortable with. Try to Buy under $10.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 30, 2013

It is all about where interest rates are going in the short run so he is neutral.

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It is all about where interest rates are going in the short run so he is neutral.

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