Chartwell Seniors Housing

CSH.UN-T

TSE:CSH.UN

14.16
0.09 (0.63%)
Chartwell Retirement Residences is the largest participant in the Canadian seniors housing sector, with nearly 180 locations across Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia.
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Analysis and Opinions about CSH.UN-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 11, 2015

(Kicked out of the REIT sector because it doesn’t qualify anymore. Looked on more as healthcare.) It is still interest sensitive. Chart shows a huge leg lower this year, along with the higher yield. The trend is still very much lower. You probably want to stay away from this one right now.

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(Kicked out of the REIT sector because it doesn’t qualify anymore. Looked on more as healthcare.) It is still interest sensitive. Chart shows a huge leg lower this year, along with the higher yield. The trend is still very much lower. You probably want to stay away from this one right now.

BUY
BUY
June 9, 2015

Likes the aging demographics and the Senior Housing industry. The seniors’ population is going to be growing much higher than the general population. This has been trending down because 1) the prospect of rising interest rates and 2) this is being removed from the REITs Index in mid June, and she expects there is going to be a lot of Index selling.

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Likes the aging demographics and the Senior Housing industry. The seniors’ population is going to be growing much higher than the general population. This has been trending down because 1) the prospect of rising interest rates and 2) this is being removed from the REITs Index in mid June, and she expects there is going to be a lot of Index selling.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 3, 2015

This really depends on your view on the whole retirement residence area. Demographics are good because of our aging population. One of the difficulties is getting staff. Labour costs are something you have to watch quite closely. Has come off in the last few months, mostly because of worries about what is going to happen with US interest rate increases. If you don’t think rates are going to go up much in the next year, this is a pretty good buying opportunity.

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This really depends on your view on the whole retirement residence area. Demographics are good because of our aging population. One of the difficulties is getting staff. Labour costs are something you have to watch quite closely. Has come off in the last few months, mostly because of worries about what is going to happen with US interest rate increases. If you don’t think rates are going to go up much in the next year, this is a pretty good buying opportunity.

PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
June 3, 2015

The retirement residence business in general is a growth area because of the aging population. They tend to be good businesses over the long-term. Seeing that the stock has been under pressure, legging in is probably the right thing to do. His preference would be Extendicare (EXE-T).

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The retirement residence business in general is a growth area because of the aging population. They tend to be good businesses over the long-term. Seeing that the stock has been under pressure, legging in is probably the right thing to do. His preference would be Extendicare (EXE-T).

Alex Ruus

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Price
$10.910
Owned
Unknown
HOLD
HOLD
June 1, 2015

A high dividend REIT with some growth, but he would put this in the Hold category.

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A high dividend REIT with some growth, but he would put this in the Hold category.

BUY
BUY
May 21, 2015

There are some questions about what they will do with the proceeds from their US disposition. There is also a concern they will get kicked out of the REIT index. He thinks you should buy it at these levels, however. If they use the cash to buy something it should be something very accretive.

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There are some questions about what they will do with the proceeds from their US disposition. There is also a concern they will get kicked out of the REIT index. He thinks you should buy it at these levels, however. If they use the cash to buy something it should be something very accretive.

Andy Nasr

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Price
$11.400
Owned
Unknown
BUY
BUY
May 20, 2015

This is a better story now. It had invested in retirement homes in Canada and in the US. In the US, you had to deal with regulations, unionization and the rates of return that were poor. They have since exited the US and are trying to make a cleaner story, which is all Canadian. Also, it is a demographic story. Not that expensive. Not a bad Buy now.

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This is a better story now. It had invested in retirement homes in Canada and in the US. In the US, you had to deal with regulations, unionization and the rates of return that were poor. They have since exited the US and are trying to make a cleaner story, which is all Canadian. Also, it is a demographic story. Not that expensive. Not a bad Buy now.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
May 15, 2015

This is going to be dropped from the REIT Index in June. For some time it technically hasn’t been a REIT, but a SIFT. It has to do with how much of its income does not come directly from property, but from other services. He still loves the name; however there may be some selling coming up in June. He would Buy on any weakness.

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This is going to be dropped from the REIT Index in June. For some time it technically hasn’t been a REIT, but a SIFT. It has to do with how much of its income does not come directly from property, but from other services. He still loves the name; however there may be some selling coming up in June. He would Buy on any weakness.

BUY
BUY
May 12, 2015

The largest Senior Housing operator in Canada. She likes this industry. The demographics obviously work in their favour. The seniors’ population of 75+ is going to double over the next 20-30 years. The penetration of seniors in housing communities is actually very low, and that can increase over time as people live longer and require more care. Just announced they were selling their US operations, so they will be getting a big whack of cash of about $420 million. Attractive yield of about 4.5%-5%.

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The largest Senior Housing operator in Canada. She likes this industry. The demographics obviously work in their favour. The seniors’ population of 75+ is going to double over the next 20-30 years. The penetration of seniors in housing communities is actually very low, and that can increase over time as people live longer and require more care. Just announced they were selling their US operations, so they will be getting a big whack of cash of about $420 million. Attractive yield of about 4.5%-5%.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 4, 2015

One of the major attractions of the seniors housing REIT is the demographics tailwind. This happens to be the biggest in Canada. Recently sold its US properties, which could be very, very timely because of the currency. This will allow them to pay down some debt. Dividend yield of 4.56%.

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One of the major attractions of the seniors housing REIT is the demographics tailwind. This happens to be the biggest in Canada. Recently sold its US properties, which could be very, very timely because of the currency. This will allow them to pay down some debt. Dividend yield of 4.56%.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 22, 2015

(A Top Pick April 29/14. Up 22.96%.) This is supported by both the demographics and the business. We have an aging population that needs more care.

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(A Top Pick April 29/14. Up 22.96%.) This is supported by both the demographics and the business. We have an aging population that needs more care.

BUY
BUY
March 19, 2015

Seniors housing play. Just sold off their US assets. Some think the value was not as good at it could have been. Will repatriate the funds back into Canada. This year there will be a good supply/demand balance. He would add to it here. The dividend is sustainable. They have a dominant share in Canada.

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Seniors housing play. Just sold off their US assets. Some think the value was not as good at it could have been. Will repatriate the funds back into Canada. This year there will be a good supply/demand balance. He would add to it here. The dividend is sustainable. They have a dominant share in Canada.

Andy Nasr

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Price
$12.220
Owned
Unknown
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 18, 2015

(A Top Pick March 19/14. Up 23.18%.) Recently sold some of their US assets. This has been an M&A candidate for some time. Large US healthcare REITs have been looking to grow their portfolios and their cost of capital is very attractive, so the sale of assets was not a surprise. It simplifies the business, because it will now be a fully Canadian seniors housing REIT. This will help them reduce their leverage and will probably end up focusing on developments and redevelopments in Canada.

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(A Top Pick March 19/14. Up 23.18%.) Recently sold some of their US assets. This has been an M&A candidate for some time. Large US healthcare REITs have been looking to grow their portfolios and their cost of capital is very attractive, so the sale of assets was not a surprise. It simplifies the business, because it will now be a fully Canadian seniors housing REIT. This will help them reduce their leverage and will probably end up focusing on developments and redevelopments in Canada.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 12, 2015

A demographic play. Occupancy was 93% pre-recession. This is improving. They increased distribution 2% recently. They said they wouldn`t increase the distribution until they felt an increase each year was sustainable.

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A demographic play. Occupancy was 93% pre-recession. This is improving. They increased distribution 2% recently. They said they wouldn`t increase the distribution until they felt an increase each year was sustainable.

HOLD
HOLD
March 9, 2015

Got a new CEO five years ago. They had a lot of debt and now they are waiting for the dividend to go up. They have said they will do it when they can continue to do so on an ongoing basis. He would not sell until the dividend was raised.

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Got a new CEO five years ago. They had a lot of debt and now they are waiting for the dividend to go up. They have said they will do it when they can continue to do so on an ongoing basis. He would not sell until the dividend was raised.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 3, 2015

(A Top Pick April 29/14. Up 24.7%.) A core holding in any portfolio. The demographics that are with the seniors housing’s trend are very strong. Companies like this are specialists in providing this kind of care. Because of this, their portfolio continues to attract a lot of interest from the user base, but is also attracting a lot of interest from the Americans. They have been coming up into Canada and spending significant amounts of money on our seniors housing buildings. This could be a possible take out in the future.

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(A Top Pick April 29/14. Up 24.7%.) A core holding in any portfolio. The demographics that are with the seniors housing’s trend are very strong. Companies like this are specialists in providing this kind of care. Because of this, their portfolio continues to attract a lot of interest from the user base, but is also attracting a lot of interest from the Americans. They have been coming up into Canada and spending significant amounts of money on our seniors housing buildings. This could be a possible take out in the future.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
January 30, 2015

Doing very well. Their Q3 same property net operating income growth is 2.6% and he expects this momentum to continue through 2016. Have been selling their non-core and investing in their core developments. That is pretty well done now and will be turning to developments. He models 10% AFFO growth over the next couple of years. Trading in line with the rest of the REIT sector. The balance sheet has been improving. Payout ratio is reasonable at 69%.

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Doing very well. Their Q3 same property net operating income growth is 2.6% and he expects this momentum to continue through 2016. Have been selling their non-core and investing in their core developments. That is pretty well done now and will be turning to developments. He models 10% AFFO growth over the next couple of years. Trading in line with the rest of the REIT sector. The balance sheet has been improving. Payout ratio is reasonable at 69%.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
January 29, 2015

There is some economic sensitivity because the rooms are expensive and in tougher economic times the vacancy rates might go up a bit. However, they seem to improve their occupancy quarter after quarter.

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There is some economic sensitivity because the rooms are expensive and in tougher economic times the vacancy rates might go up a bit. However, they seem to improve their occupancy quarter after quarter.

Ben Cheng

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Price
$12.720
Owned
Unknown
HOLD
HOLD
January 20, 2015

Retirement homes. Have spent the last couple of years making it a cleaner story. Retirement space is very complicated because they have to deal with government, demographics, senior citizens being unable to pay, etc. What you want is a story that is not as complicated as that. This is the right time to still own this as it is a great cash flow business. Occupancy rates are on a higher trend. About a 7% yield.

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Retirement homes. Have spent the last couple of years making it a cleaner story. Retirement space is very complicated because they have to deal with government, demographics, senior citizens being unable to pay, etc. What you want is a story that is not as complicated as that. This is the right time to still own this as it is a great cash flow business. Occupancy rates are on a higher trend. About a 7% yield.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
January 13, 2015

The leader in seniors housing in Canada. The stock has done quite well. It’s a combination of interest rates moderating and less inflation concerns and the general weaker economy. REITs generally have done quite well in the past month. The company was restructuring their US operations and focusing on certain regions, selling off some assets and reinvesting in Canada. Thinks they are at a point now where they should be able to start increasing distributions in the next year. Likes the demographics of an older population creating an increasing demand for seniors housing. Wait for a pullback below $12. Dividend yield of 4.3%.

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The leader in seniors housing in Canada. The stock has done quite well. It’s a combination of interest rates moderating and less inflation concerns and the general weaker economy. REITs generally have done quite well in the past month. The company was restructuring their US operations and focusing on certain regions, selling off some assets and reinvesting in Canada. Thinks they are at a point now where they should be able to start increasing distributions in the next year. Likes the demographics of an older population creating an increasing demand for seniors housing. Wait for a pullback below $12. Dividend yield of 4.3%.

HOLD
HOLD
January 9, 2015

Has liked this consistently for the last several years. Going forward, it is a company that is going to benefit from an aging population. A headwind for the stock, prior to 2014, has been an excess supply. Supply exceeded demand from 2011 to 2013. 2014 was the 1st year where demand exceeded supply. Going forward, because you are going to have lower supply, you should see occupancy tick higher, hopefully in the lower 90%s, which will really drive cash flow growth. Thinks it is a potential prime acquisition candidate for a US player that may want to enter into the Canadian market.

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Has liked this consistently for the last several years. Going forward, it is a company that is going to benefit from an aging population. A headwind for the stock, prior to 2014, has been an excess supply. Supply exceeded demand from 2011 to 2013. 2014 was the 1st year where demand exceeded supply. Going forward, because you are going to have lower supply, you should see occupancy tick higher, hopefully in the lower 90%s, which will really drive cash flow growth. Thinks it is a potential prime acquisition candidate for a US player that may want to enter into the Canadian market.

BUY
BUY
December 29, 2014

Likes it a lot. It is a great company. If interest rates rise quickly it would be a problem, but you should be comfortable with the kind of income you are getting today. They are good operators. The demographics are behind them. There is a big push into occupancy. There has been American interest in these and it gives you down side protection.

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Likes it a lot. It is a great company. If interest rates rise quickly it would be a problem, but you should be comfortable with the kind of income you are getting today. They are good operators. The demographics are behind them. There is a big push into occupancy. There has been American interest in these and it gives you down side protection.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 9, 2014

A seniors’ home operator, and she likes that space because of aging demographics. The seniors population in Canada is going to be growing at a faster rate than the general population over the next 10 years. Also, seniors are living longer and need more care. Before the 2008 recession, occupancy was in the 94%-95% range, and currently is at around 90%. So there is no reason why occupancy can’t improve. A nice place to hide to get the dividend yield of 4.6%.

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A seniors’ home operator, and she likes that space because of aging demographics. The seniors population in Canada is going to be growing at a faster rate than the general population over the next 10 years. Also, seniors are living longer and need more care. Before the 2008 recession, occupancy was in the 94%-95% range, and currently is at around 90%. So there is no reason why occupancy can’t improve. A nice place to hide to get the dividend yield of 4.6%.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
December 8, 2014

It continues to do well. It would run into trouble in a rising rate environment. It should continue with slow growth going forward.

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It continues to do well. It would run into trouble in a rising rate environment. It should continue with slow growth going forward.

BUY
BUY
November 26, 2014

Likes the demographic tailwinds. If rates are going to rise, you want to own a REIT with a low payout ratio, a high growth rate, improving leverage, organic growth and one that can focus on developments. This company displays all of this. It is also a potential takeover target.

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Likes the demographic tailwinds. If rates are going to rise, you want to own a REIT with a low payout ratio, a high growth rate, improving leverage, organic growth and one that can focus on developments. This company displays all of this. It is also a potential takeover target.

BUY
BUY
November 13, 2014

This is in the seniors’ home sector. Has great demographics, as older ones need more care. Plus there is a lot of US interest in this space. Great name.

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This is in the seniors’ home sector. Has great demographics, as older ones need more care. Plus there is a lot of US interest in this space. Great name.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 11, 2014

The leading seniors housing operator in Canada. About 80% of their suites are in Canada with 20% in US. Have refocused by selling off non-core properties in the US and putting the money back into Canada. She likes the demographics. We are all living longer. The population of seniors, 75+, is going to be growing at 3 times the general population rate. The penetration of seniors housing is quite low. Yield of 4.66%, but they are at the point where they could be increasing this in the next year.

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The leading seniors housing operator in Canada. About 80% of their suites are in Canada with 20% in US. Have refocused by selling off non-core properties in the US and putting the money back into Canada. She likes the demographics. We are all living longer. The population of seniors, 75+, is going to be growing at 3 times the general population rate. The penetration of seniors housing is quite low. Yield of 4.66%, but they are at the point where they could be increasing this in the next year.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 23, 2014

A good story. He is modeling 7% compounded annual growth. Sees a strong 2nd half coming from ramped up sales and marketing. Have had this really nice strategy of recycling capital from non-core properties and putting them into higher quality, which should continue to drive multiple expansion. It is a potential takeover target. Long term tailwinds of seniors’ assisted living. He would try to buy it on a bit of a pullback.

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A good story. He is modeling 7% compounded annual growth. Sees a strong 2nd half coming from ramped up sales and marketing. Have had this really nice strategy of recycling capital from non-core properties and putting them into higher quality, which should continue to drive multiple expansion. It is a potential takeover target. Long term tailwinds of seniors’ assisted living. He would try to buy it on a bit of a pullback.

BUY
BUY
October 2, 2014

A great demographic play. The population in that range will double over the next 10 years. In the last 4 years we have seen a 10% increase in costs. This year we should see a greater increase in demand growth than supply growth.

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A great demographic play. The population in that range will double over the next 10 years. In the last 4 years we have seen a 10% increase in costs. This year we should see a greater increase in demand growth than supply growth.

Andy Nasr

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Price
$10.910
Owned
Unknown
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
September 25, 2014

She likes it. One of the better REITS to buy in this environment. Less interest rate sensitive. They can pass through inflation increases to customers. They have improved operational performance under their new CEO and they have new runway. They ate their way through supply and demand issues. They are at 89% occupancy. Payout is reasonable and they might increase it next year. One of the better companies in the group. 5% yield is absolutely sustainable. A little room for capital appreciation. There has been a lot of M&A activity in the US in this area.

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She likes it. One of the better REITS to buy in this environment. Less interest rate sensitive. They can pass through inflation increases to customers. They have improved operational performance under their new CEO and they have new runway. They ate their way through supply and demand issues. They are at 89% occupancy. Payout is reasonable and they might increase it next year. One of the better companies in the group. 5% yield is absolutely sustainable. A little room for capital appreciation. There has been a lot of M&A activity in the US in this area.

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