Chartwell Seniors Housing (CSH.UN-T) Stock Predictions - Stockchase
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Chartwell Seniors Housing (CSH.UN-T)

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Chartwell Seniors Housing

CSH.UN-T

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Chartwell Seniors Housing (CSH.UN-T) SAVE Jan, 23, 2019, 2:59 am

14.77 0.06 (0.41%)

About Chartwell Seniors Housing (CSH.UN-T)

Chartwell Retirement Residences is the largest participant in the Canadian seniors housing sector, with nearly 180 locations across Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia. More at Wikipedia

What the experts are saying about CSH.UN-T



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Signal Opinion Expert
BUY
Very well managed company. Attractive space. We all live longer and there will be increasing demand for what they offer. They don't do any home care that is more open to potential liability. They have a good pipeline to grow over the next couple of years with an attractive distribution yield of around 4%. This is actually a good entry point for this stock.
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Very well managed company. Attractive space. We all live longer and there will be increasing demand for what they offer. They don't do any home care that is more open to potential liability. They have a good pipeline to grow over the next couple of years with an attractive distribution yield of around 4%. This is actually a good entry point for this stock.
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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$14.030
Owned Owned
Yes

BUY
63% and declining payout ratio. Distribution is safe. Q3 was decent. Rising occupancy. They see NOI of $3 which translates into an AFFO growth of 7%. Quality name. Fine to own. Good to add when the waterfall stops. Other things are less expensive.
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63% and declining payout ratio. Distribution is safe. Q3 was decent. Rising occupancy. They see NOI of $3 which translates into an AFFO growth of 7%. Quality name. Fine to own. Good to add when the waterfall stops. Other things are less expensive.
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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$13.960
Owned Owned
Unknown

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 12/17, Down 2%) Pays over 4% yield. It slipped because of rising interest rates. They built somer supply in Ontario and Quebec, so occupancy in Ontario has temporarily slipped to 88% vs. 91% 18 months ago. The demand is definitely there to absorb these new rooms. She likes the play on aging demographics, so there'll be a growing need for seniors housing. CSH is well-positioned to grow in Canada and is the leader.
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(A Top Pick Dec 12/17, Down 2%) Pays over 4% yield. It slipped because of rising interest rates. They built somer supply in Ontario and Quebec, so occupancy in Ontario has temporarily slipped to 88% vs. 91% 18 months ago. The demand is definitely there to absorb these new rooms. She likes the play on aging demographics, so there'll be a growing need for seniors housing. CSH is well-positioned to grow in Canada and is the leader.
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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$14.650
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

The market is struggling to decide what this is: a yield, a REIT, a cash flow play? The demographics are in their favour, but does this drive CSH enough or does it need an acquisition? He doesn't know. Good dividend, but he hasn't looked at CSH deeply.

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The market is struggling to decide what this is: a yield, a REIT, a cash flow play? The demographics are in their favour, but does this drive CSH enough or does it need an acquisition? He doesn't know. Good dividend, but he hasn't looked at CSH deeply.

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Chris Stuchberr

Portfolio , Wellington-Altus Pri...

Price Price
$14.180
Owned Owned
No

BUY

Still likes it and has been buying it during this pullback. REITs have been pressured by rising rates, but she likes the seniors housing space. Managed well and pays an attractive 4.2% yield. A good long-term hold and would buy it here.

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Still likes it and has been buying it during this pullback. REITs have been pressured by rising rates, but she likes the seniors housing space. Managed well and pays an attractive 4.2% yield. A good long-term hold and would buy it here.

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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$13.970
Owned Owned
Yes

SELL

Bad news is costs elevated, more competitive pressure in retirement homes. Pricey. Balance sheet not perfect. Good news is decent growth rate, and good long-term area to be in. But much better value elsewhere. He’s trimmed to move into other areas. You have to buy things at the right price.

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Bad news is costs elevated, more competitive pressure in retirement homes. Pricey. Balance sheet not perfect. Good news is decent growth rate, and good long-term area to be in. But much better value elsewhere. He’s trimmed to move into other areas. You have to buy things at the right price.

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Greg Newman

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$14.640
Owned Owned
Unknown

TOP PICK

This is the largest provider of senior communities. The demographics play in their favor. The 75-year-plus population is expected to double in the 20 next years, growing 3 to 4 times faster than the general population. Penetration of the seniors market is still low in Canada, so there is a lot of room for growth. 85% of their homes are private-pay rather than relying on government funding. Yield 4%. (Analysts’ price target is $16.75)

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This is the largest provider of senior communities. The demographics play in their favor. The 75-year-plus population is expected to double in the 20 next years, growing 3 to 4 times faster than the general population. Penetration of the seniors market is still low in Canada, so there is a lot of room for growth. 85% of their homes are private-pay rather than relying on government funding. Yield 4%. (Analysts’ price target is $16.75)

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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$15.130
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

Extendicare (EXE-T) or Chartwell Retirement (CSH-U-T). Both are good long term holds.  He prefers and owns Chartwell.  Will see continued growth in this sector.  There were shorts on Extendicare and the rebound lately has been a short covering.  

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Extendicare (EXE-T) or Chartwell Retirement (CSH-U-T). Both are good long term holds.  He prefers and owns Chartwell.  Will see continued growth in this sector.  There were shorts on Extendicare and the rebound lately has been a short covering.  

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Andrew Pyle

Senior wea, The Pyle Group, Scot...

Price Price
$15.360
Owned Owned
Unknown

DON'T BUY

PE ratio this high is a red flag on the surface. He’d be reluctant to own the high PE multiple in a sector where other companies have lower multiples. Own another one, or own a few to diversify. Can’t tell if high PE due to price too high, or a one-time hit to earnings.

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PE ratio this high is a red flag on the surface. He’d be reluctant to own the high PE multiple in a sector where other companies have lower multiples. Own another one, or own a few to diversify. Can’t tell if high PE due to price too high, or a one-time hit to earnings.

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Michael Decter

President , Lawrence Decter Inve...

Price Price
$15.550
Owned Owned
No

DON'T BUY

Demographically, it’s a theme, but you have to ignore this. Had stayed away because of litigation in the US. Missed earnings. Difficult business because of labour costs, regulations. Other investments make sense and aren’t as complicated. Analysts have downgraded. Trades at an 18x multiple. If you’re going to buy, have to buy it washed out. (Analysts’ price target is $16.65.) 

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Demographically, it’s a theme, but you have to ignore this. Had stayed away because of litigation in the US. Missed earnings. Difficult business because of labour costs, regulations. Other investments make sense and aren’t as complicated. Analysts have downgraded. Trades at an 18x multiple. If you’re going to buy, have to buy it washed out. (Analysts’ price target is $16.65.) 

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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$15.320
Owned Owned
No

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 12, 2017. Up 5%). She continues to like Chartwell. This is the leader in seniors housing in Canada. She likes the demographic trend. Chartwell provides the full spectrum of living and care arrangements, including long-term care, which is fully regulated and which constitutes 15% of their business. Occupancy is very high. They grow organically and by acquisition. She likes the management. Rising interest rates have created a headwind for the stock price, but it offers an adequate yield.

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(A Top Pick July 12, 2017. Up 5%). She continues to like Chartwell. This is the leader in seniors housing in Canada. She likes the demographic trend. Chartwell provides the full spectrum of living and care arrangements, including long-term care, which is fully regulated and which constitutes 15% of their business. Occupancy is very high. They grow organically and by acquisition. She likes the management. Rising interest rates have created a headwind for the stock price, but it offers an adequate yield.

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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$15.330
Owned Owned
Yes

BUY

This trend in demographics is going to benefit this company.  He has not bought it and there is a better situation elsewhere in the REIT space.  We don't have enough nursing home beds.  The issue they have is the land grab in the neighborhoods where people want to move from.  This is people moving from homes they own into facilities they rent.  He has TCN-T as it is a slightly better investment.

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This trend in demographics is going to benefit this company.  He has not bought it and there is a better situation elsewhere in the REIT space.  We don't have enough nursing home beds.  The issue they have is the land grab in the neighborhoods where people want to move from.  This is people moving from homes they own into facilities they rent.  He has TCN-T as it is a slightly better investment.

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Lyle Stein

Sr. Portfo, Vestcap Investment M...

Price Price
$15.510
Owned Owned
No

BUY

What healthcare stock to buy? In Canada, he likes Chartwell, in the U.S, Merck (MRK-N), and in Europe, Novo Nordisk.

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What healthcare stock to buy? In Canada, he likes Chartwell, in the U.S, Merck (MRK-N), and in Europe, Novo Nordisk.

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Bruce Campbell

President, Campbell and Lee Inv...

Price Price
$15.250
Owned Owned
Unknown

BUY

Have held it for a number of years and continue to like it. Would be buyers at these levels below $15. Demographics favour this industry. Most of their revenue comes from private pay, not government. Offer all levels of care -- long term, assisted living, independent living. Strong and experienced management team. Good organic growth plus acquisitions. Company got out of the US;  feel they have enough opportunities for growth in Canada. Yield about 4%.

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Have held it for a number of years and continue to like it. Would be buyers at these levels below $15. Demographics favour this industry. Most of their revenue comes from private pay, not government. Offer all levels of care -- long term, assisted living, independent living. Strong and experienced management team. Good organic growth plus acquisitions. Company got out of the US;  feel they have enough opportunities for growth in Canada. Yield about 4%.

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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$14.690
Owned Owned
Yes

TOP PICK

Demographics work in their favour: everyone is getting older so there'll be more demand for assisted-care living. Management is good. Offers a dividend near 4% which will be safe and has been increasing slowly over time. This is a long-term hold; she's held it for five years. The recent pull-back is due to rising interest rates. (Analysts' price target $17.00)

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Demographics work in their favour: everyone is getting older so there'll be more demand for assisted-care living. Management is good. Offers a dividend near 4% which will be safe and has been increasing slowly over time. This is a long-term hold; she's held it for five years. The recent pull-back is due to rising interest rates. (Analysts' price target $17.00)

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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$15.270
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

Extendicare Inc. (EXE-T) vs Chartwell(CSH.UN-T) He favours Chartwell over Extendicare, because they became overextended in the US market and have litigation issues. Whereas Chartwell has re-focused their plan quicker.

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Extendicare Inc. (EXE-T) vs Chartwell(CSH.UN-T) He favours Chartwell over Extendicare, because they became overextended in the US market and have litigation issues. Whereas Chartwell has re-focused their plan quicker.

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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$15.040
Owned Owned
No

BUY

HR.UN-T vs. CHR.UN-T.  Hang onto CSH.UN-T.  They are both AMZN-Q proof.  Tenants pay rent so they are not long term leases like elsewhere in the REIT space.  He would lighten up on HR.UN-T

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HR.UN-T vs. CHR.UN-T.  Hang onto CSH.UN-T.  They are both AMZN-Q proof.  Tenants pay rent so they are not long term leases like elsewhere in the REIT space.  He would lighten up on HR.UN-T

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Stephen Takacsy

Chief Inve, Lester Asset Managem...

Price Price
$15.770
Owned Owned
Unknown

TOP PICK

This is a demographic play. The stock hasn't done too much in the past 3-6 months where we have seen the overall market rally. Just did an equity issue at $15.20, to retire some debt as well as to fund an Alberta acquisition. Dividend yield of 3.7%. This is the largest Canadian operator in seniors housing. Very good operators and have a good pipeline of organic projects as well as some of their M&A. (Analysts' price target is $17.)

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This is a demographic play. The stock hasn't done too much in the past 3-6 months where we have seen the overall market rally. Just did an equity issue at $15.20, to retire some debt as well as to fund an Alberta acquisition. Dividend yield of 3.7%. This is the largest Canadian operator in seniors housing. Very good operators and have a good pipeline of organic projects as well as some of their M&A. (Analysts' price target is $17.)

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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$15.760
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

Runs a variety of retirement homes and long-term care facilities in Canada. Ranks 258 out of 700 stocks. Analysts are bumping up their numbers, but he doesn’t think the stock is inexpensive at this point. Free cash flow is negative at -3.3%. There are other investment income companies he would prefer.

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Runs a variety of retirement homes and long-term care facilities in Canada. Ranks 258 out of 700 stocks. Analysts are bumping up their numbers, but he doesn’t think the stock is inexpensive at this point. Free cash flow is negative at -3.3%. There are other investment income companies he would prefer.

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Robert McWhirte

President, Selective Asset Mana...

Price Price
$15.680
Owned Owned
Unknown

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 15/16. Up 12%.) Just reported this morning and had good numbers and improvement in their Net Operating Income. She likes Senior Housing where the demographics work in your favour. Sold all their US assets a few years ago, and invests solely in Canada now.

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(A Top Pick Nov 15/16. Up 12%.) Just reported this morning and had good numbers and improvement in their Net Operating Income. She likes Senior Housing where the demographics work in your favour. Sold all their US assets a few years ago, and invests solely in Canada now.

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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$15.860
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

One of those defensive stocks, and of course the secular trend works; aging demographics, baby growers retiring. Chart shows the stock is in an up channel. Take your profits at the top of the channel and maybe buy when it is at the bottom of the channel. You are in a very good space on this one.

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One of those defensive stocks, and of course the secular trend works; aging demographics, baby growers retiring. Chart shows the stock is in an up channel. Take your profits at the top of the channel and maybe buy when it is at the bottom of the channel. You are in a very good space on this one.

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William Chin

Portfolio , Caldwell Investment ...

Price Price
$15.210
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT

Key factors you focus on when assessing this kind of company?He tries to look at management, assets, payout ratios and liabilities. When evaluating any REIT, the most important thing is going to be demand and supply. It really affects the ability of management teams to increase occupancy and increase rents. For this one, seniors housing is very operationally intensive, and they benefit from being one of the largest players in Canada. Having national presence gives them the opportunity to purchase things a little cheaper, manage properties more effectively and to increase occupancy in case of a decline. He likes this company. There are very favourable demographic tailwinds that will benefit them going forward.

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Key factors you focus on when assessing this kind of company?He tries to look at management, assets, payout ratios and liabilities. When evaluating any REIT, the most important thing is going to be demand and supply. It really affects the ability of management teams to increase occupancy and increase rents. For this one, seniors housing is very operationally intensive, and they benefit from being one of the largest players in Canada. Having national presence gives them the opportunity to purchase things a little cheaper, manage properties more effectively and to increase occupancy in case of a decline. He likes this company. There are very favourable demographic tailwinds that will benefit them going forward.

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Andy Nasr

VP & Inves, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$15.160
Owned Owned
Yes

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 13/16. Up 2%.) Has held this for a number of years. Pays a good yield of about 4%. Thinks it has pulled back a little with the increases in interest rates. However, she likes the long-term story. They are the largest operator of retirement homes in Canada, and are well positioned to continue to grow.

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(A Top Pick Sept 13/16. Up 2%.) Has held this for a number of years. Pays a good yield of about 4%. Thinks it has pulled back a little with the increases in interest rates. However, she likes the long-term story. They are the largest operator of retirement homes in Canada, and are well positioned to continue to grow.

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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$14.580
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

Seniors’ homes is a growth market. There is not going to be enough places for baby boomers to retire, and this is a great way to participate. This has been weak lately on the basis of rising interest rates, which has hurt a lot of REITs. Ultimately, you own a hard asset with an ability to raise its prices down the road. Not a bad place to be.

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Seniors’ homes is a growth market. There is not going to be enough places for baby boomers to retire, and this is a great way to participate. This has been weak lately on the basis of rising interest rates, which has hurt a lot of REITs. Ultimately, you own a hard asset with an ability to raise its prices down the road. Not a bad place to be.

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Lyle Stein

Sr. Portfo, Vestcap Investment M...

Price Price
$15.190
Owned Owned
No

TOP PICK

The largest provider of seniors housing communities in Canada. In the last couple of weeks, this has gone from $16 to almost $15, which is why she chose it. Everyone is getting older and living longer. It is still a very fragmented market, and this is the leader in the space. Dividend yield of 3.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $16.75.)

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The largest provider of seniors housing communities in Canada. In the last couple of weeks, this has gone from $16 to almost $15, which is why she chose it. Everyone is getting older and living longer. It is still a very fragmented market, and this is the leader in the space. Dividend yield of 3.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $16.75.)

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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$15.210
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

The number of people globally, over 65 years of age, will probably double over the next 20-25 years. That increase will result in more demand for retirement housing. This company should really benefit, provided you don’t see a material increase in supply. Not particularly cheap and is probably fairly valued here. Senior Housing is probably amongst the most operationally intensive asset class in commercial real estate. Great management team. He would probably look elsewhere. Dividend yield of 3.6%.

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The number of people globally, over 65 years of age, will probably double over the next 20-25 years. That increase will result in more demand for retirement housing. This company should really benefit, provided you don’t see a material increase in supply. Not particularly cheap and is probably fairly valued here. Senior Housing is probably amongst the most operationally intensive asset class in commercial real estate. Great management team. He would probably look elsewhere. Dividend yield of 3.6%.

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Andy Nasr

VP & Inves, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$15.840
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

Has no exposure to REITs because of valuations. Also, these names are ultrasensitive to even a whisper of interest rates going up. Any time you buy into an asset class that has done as well as REITs, combined with how sensitive they are to interest rate movements, it is a risky proposition. However, this one is top of class.

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Has no exposure to REITs because of valuations. Also, these names are ultrasensitive to even a whisper of interest rates going up. Any time you buy into an asset class that has done as well as REITs, combined with how sensitive they are to interest rate movements, it is a risky proposition. However, this one is top of class.

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Kash Pashootan

CEO & Chie, First Avenue Investm...

Price Price
$16.040
Owned Owned
No

COMMENT

A big fan of management and their story. People are getting older and need someone to take very good care of them, and this is a very good operator. The real estate component looks very attractive as well. The stock is fairly valued, perhaps a little bit rich, but he continues to hold at these levels. If there was a significant real estate correction, this company would be affected along with others in senior residences. 3.7% dividend yield.

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A big fan of management and their story. People are getting older and need someone to take very good care of them, and this is a very good operator. The real estate component looks very attractive as well. The stock is fairly valued, perhaps a little bit rich, but he continues to hold at these levels. If there was a significant real estate correction, this company would be affected along with others in senior residences. 3.7% dividend yield.

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Derek Warren

Asst Vice , Lincluden Investment...

Price Price
$15.740
Owned Owned
Yes

HOLD

High-quality. Everyone understands the business and everyone understands age demographics. The service this company provides is going to continue to be in demand. What has helped them, is what he believes is hurting them at this point. Some of the names such as this have seen a real inflow of capital, so are trading at all-time high multiples. When there is a correction, it tends to be quite sharp. Too expensive at this time. Dividend yield of 3.8%.

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High-quality. Everyone understands the business and everyone understands age demographics. The service this company provides is going to continue to be in demand. What has helped them, is what he believes is hurting them at this point. Some of the names such as this have seen a real inflow of capital, so are trading at all-time high multiples. When there is a correction, it tends to be quite sharp. Too expensive at this time. Dividend yield of 3.8%.

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Kash Pashootan

CEO & Chie, First Avenue Investm...

Price Price
$15.120
Owned Owned
No

HOLD

She has owned it for quite a number of years.  It is the largest seniors housing player in Canada.  She likes the demographics play.  The company sold off all their US properties and they have been developing and re-investing the money.  It has a 3.5% yield.  It has been strong over the past three weeks.  She would not buy it here, but hold it.  Wait for a pullback if you want to imitate a position.

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She has owned it for quite a number of years.  It is the largest seniors housing player in Canada.  She likes the demographics play.  The company sold off all their US properties and they have been developing and re-investing the money.  It has a 3.5% yield.  It has been strong over the past three weeks.  She would not buy it here, but hold it.  Wait for a pullback if you want to imitate a position.

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Christine Poole

CEO & Mana, GlobeInvest Capital ...

Price Price
$15.870
Owned Owned
Yes

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