Crescent Point Energy Corp

CPG-T

TSE:CPG

4.21
0.12 (2.77%)
Crescent Point Energy Corp. is an oil and gas company based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada and Denver, Colorado, United States. The company focuses primarily on light oil production in southern Saskatchewan and the Uinta basin in Utah.
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Analysis and Opinions about CPG-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
HOLD
HOLD
February 12, 2020
The Corona virus is reeking havoc in the oil markets currently as Chinese oil demand is reportedly down. OPEC believes oil demand will still grow this year by 1 million barrels per day. If oil goes back to $60, the stock will be trading at 2 times cash flow and generate a 17% free cash flow yield. He expects they could continue to buy back shares and pay down debt.
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The Corona virus is reeking havoc in the oil markets currently as Chinese oil demand is reportedly down. OPEC believes oil demand will still grow this year by 1 million barrels per day. If oil goes back to $60, the stock will be trading at 2 times cash flow and generate a 17% free cash flow yield. He expects they could continue to buy back shares and pay down debt.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
January 24, 2020
They had a balance sheet issue and began selling assets to pay down debt, including the sale of infrastructure assets. This will reduce debt below $3 billion. Any cash generation will be levered to WTI prices as they are 90% liquids based. A rise in WTI prices will lead to more share buybacks he thinks. At $70 WTI, it traded at $20. His target price is $7. He thinks there are better names out there. Perhaps buy on weakness.
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They had a balance sheet issue and began selling assets to pay down debt, including the sale of infrastructure assets. This will reduce debt below $3 billion. Any cash generation will be levered to WTI prices as they are 90% liquids based. A rise in WTI prices will lead to more share buybacks he thinks. At $70 WTI, it traded at $20. His target price is $7. He thinks there are better names out there. Perhaps buy on weakness.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 23, 2020
It has never been a favorite. The company has grown but the debt position has also. If the sector rallies then it will move but otherwise there is a lot of stock and high debt.
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It has never been a favorite. The company has grown but the debt position has also. If the sector rallies then it will move but otherwise there is a lot of stock and high debt.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 3, 2020
(A Top Pick Jan 04/19, Up 37%) He recommended it at a low point last year. Today, it moved well. He strictly trades this stock and is not in it right now. However, he has made 30%-50% trading it in the past. He's getting his feet back into energy but he would prefer other names.
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(A Top Pick Jan 04/19, Up 37%) He recommended it at a low point last year. Today, it moved well. He strictly trades this stock and is not in it right now. However, he has made 30%-50% trading it in the past. He's getting his feet back into energy but he would prefer other names.
PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
December 24, 2019
You can take profits now and re-buy later. WTI oil will likely see weakness. Big resistance at $6, so you can take some profits now. He predicts a general market pullback in January. He predicts a 10-15% pullback in CPG, but he likes the 2002-2021 outlook for CPG and oil.
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You can take profits now and re-buy later. WTI oil will likely see weakness. Big resistance at $6, so you can take some profits now. He predicts a general market pullback in January. He predicts a 10-15% pullback in CPG, but he likes the 2002-2021 outlook for CPG and oil.
WATCH
WATCH
December 20, 2019
A lot of the stocks are trading substantially below book values. They are in North Dakota and Southern Saskatchewan. They have been buying back their stocks. The dividend has been cut but the stock has been acting well.
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A lot of the stocks are trading substantially below book values. They are in North Dakota and Southern Saskatchewan. They have been buying back their stocks. The dividend has been cut but the stock has been acting well.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 19, 2019
They have been buying back stock and sold mid-stream assets. It is trading at 18% free cash flow yield. It is 2.7 times enterprise value to cash flow, which is staggering considering multiple compression. They are not as exposed to pipeline bottlenecks as others. (Analysts’ price target is $7.40)
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They have been buying back stock and sold mid-stream assets. It is trading at 18% free cash flow yield. It is 2.7 times enterprise value to cash flow, which is staggering considering multiple compression. They are not as exposed to pipeline bottlenecks as others. (Analysts’ price target is $7.40)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 16, 2019
He would not buy any E&P companies right now. You need a rally in the commodity price to get people excited. Companies are just paying down debt and buying back stock, but that won't get any attention. Look elsewhere.
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He would not buy any E&P companies right now. You need a rally in the commodity price to get people excited. Companies are just paying down debt and buying back stock, but that won't get any attention. Look elsewhere.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 10, 2019
(A Top Pick Dec 31/18, Up 20%) He still likes it. They did wrong things in the past--issuing alot of equity--but are doing the right things now--share buybacks and selling off assets. These please shareholders, not production growth. CPG just sold its infrastructure assets last month at 7x, but the stock is trading at 3x. The balance sheet is now 2x debt-to-EBITDA.
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(A Top Pick Dec 31/18, Up 20%) He still likes it. They did wrong things in the past--issuing alot of equity--but are doing the right things now--share buybacks and selling off assets. These please shareholders, not production growth. CPG just sold its infrastructure assets last month at 7x, but the stock is trading at 3x. The balance sheet is now 2x debt-to-EBITDA.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 10, 2019
They are well-positioned, what he wants an energy company to do. Forget about growing production, but rather get out of residual assets, improving their balance sheet and buying back shares. They're doing the opposite of what they did for years--issuing equity which drowned out valuation. They finally listened to shareholders and have reversed course. Great value at 3x operating cash flow. They just sold off infrastructure assets in Utah at 8x. Free cash flow yield is nearly 20%, which is great value. (Analysts’ price target is $7.40)
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They are well-positioned, what he wants an energy company to do. Forget about growing production, but rather get out of residual assets, improving their balance sheet and buying back shares. They're doing the opposite of what they did for years--issuing equity which drowned out valuation. They finally listened to shareholders and have reversed course. Great value at 3x operating cash flow. They just sold off infrastructure assets in Utah at 8x. Free cash flow yield is nearly 20%, which is great value. (Analysts’ price target is $7.40)
BUY
BUY
November 21, 2019
They just announced a sale of mid-stream operations in mid-Saskatchewan. An infrastructure deal will knock the debt down when it closes in Q1. They will continue to be able to pay down debt. His target is $7.50-$8.
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They just announced a sale of mid-stream operations in mid-Saskatchewan. An infrastructure deal will knock the debt down when it closes in Q1. They will continue to be able to pay down debt. His target is $7.50-$8.
HOLD
HOLD
November 15, 2019
The new CEO has payed down debt, rationalized assets and bought back stock. They are now monetizing assets at 10 times cash flow when the company is only trading at 2.8 times. All good things. If it traded back to 5 times cash flow, its share price would rise 100%.
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The new CEO has payed down debt, rationalized assets and bought back stock. They are now monetizing assets at 10 times cash flow when the company is only trading at 2.8 times. All good things. If it traded back to 5 times cash flow, its share price would rise 100%.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 30, 2019
Oil prices? He doesn't have an oil price forecast. CPG is like a lot of other companies -- divesting assets and paying down debt. He thinks Canadian equities are dead in the water here and does not know what catalyst will help change things.
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Oil prices? He doesn't have an oil price forecast. CPG is like a lot of other companies -- divesting assets and paying down debt. He thinks Canadian equities are dead in the water here and does not know what catalyst will help change things.
Don Lato

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Price
$5.270
Owned
Unknown
WAIT
WAIT
October 25, 2019

Average down? The mid-cap energy trade has been very tough. CPG is executing on their plan, paying down debt, changing management and selling assets. If you like oil, thinking it will go up in value, it would be a good buy. We need to see large foreign investors coming back in again. You might buy CNQ instead.

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Average down? The mid-cap energy trade has been very tough. CPG is executing on their plan, paying down debt, changing management and selling assets. If you like oil, thinking it will go up in value, it would be a good buy. We need to see large foreign investors coming back in again. You might buy CNQ instead.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 18, 2019
They are buying back stocks and breaking the trend of issuing more equity and growing. They have decent light oil, strong production and good cash flow generation. The energy sector risk is there, but it is a good buy among them.
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They are buying back stocks and breaking the trend of issuing more equity and growing. They have decent light oil, strong production and good cash flow generation. The energy sector risk is there, but it is a good buy among them.
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 15, 2019
They're paying down debt and buying back shares. He still doesn't like this stock or Canadian oil stocks. Wait longer. They report in November. He hopes the balance sheet looks better.
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They're paying down debt and buying back shares. He still doesn't like this stock or Canadian oil stocks. Wait longer. They report in November. He hopes the balance sheet looks better.
HOLD
HOLD
October 11, 2019
$10 in a year? They have under gone a management change and he likes the new team. They have sold assets, reduced operational costs, and maximizing cash flow to buy back stock. He would like to see them be more aggressive on the buyback next year. The stock trades at 3 times cash flow and at 74% of their liquidation value -- incredibly cheap. They plan to monetize some of their infrastructure and are buying back $100 million in shares by year end. He would like to see them buy back 10-15% of their shares next year to improve all metrics, while not foolishly production. Back to $10 would require a multiple of 5 times cash flow -- he is optimistic.
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$10 in a year? They have under gone a management change and he likes the new team. They have sold assets, reduced operational costs, and maximizing cash flow to buy back stock. He would like to see them be more aggressive on the buyback next year. The stock trades at 3 times cash flow and at 74% of their liquidation value -- incredibly cheap. They plan to monetize some of their infrastructure and are buying back $100 million in shares by year end. He would like to see them buy back 10-15% of their shares next year to improve all metrics, while not foolishly production. Back to $10 would require a multiple of 5 times cash flow -- he is optimistic.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 10, 2019
(A Top Pick Nov 19/18, Up 3%) They had a massive asset sale. They are still planning to try to monetize some infrastructure assets.
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(A Top Pick Nov 19/18, Up 3%) They had a massive asset sale. They are still planning to try to monetize some infrastructure assets.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 20, 2019
He thinks CPG-T should merge with a small company and re-brand itself. It looks like others in the space that have lost their credibility. They are selling assets, shrinking production, to improve the balance sheet. At best $8-$9 is the upside potential for the share price. He would prefer others in the space.
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He thinks CPG-T should merge with a small company and re-brand itself. It looks like others in the space that have lost their credibility. They are selling assets, shrinking production, to improve the balance sheet. At best $8-$9 is the upside potential for the share price. He would prefer others in the space.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 16, 2019
They sold some assets in Utah and southeast Saskatchewan. He has a $7 target. He is not enamoured with it because they talked about selling Balkan assets, then they said they would sell mid-stream assets and then changed again when they actually sold assets. Are they selling because they have to sell or because they are focusing on their best assets?
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They sold some assets in Utah and southeast Saskatchewan. He has a $7 target. He is not enamoured with it because they talked about selling Balkan assets, then they said they would sell mid-stream assets and then changed again when they actually sold assets. Are they selling because they have to sell or because they are focusing on their best assets?
BUY
BUY
September 12, 2019
He does not know that tax loss selling could start now. He thinks people will get out of one energy and then get into another. CPG-T had quite a rally this month. It has run into resistance. It is above the 200 day average.
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He does not know that tax loss selling could start now. He thinks people will get out of one energy and then get into another. CPG-T had quite a rally this month. It has run into resistance. It is above the 200 day average.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 12, 2019
Has gone through a lot. Cut dividend to almost zero. Criticized for past acquisitions. Now need to sell off assets and refocus, and they've done that. Chart reflects what's gone on in energy patch. She doesn't have any energy exposure now.
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Has gone through a lot. Cut dividend to almost zero. Criticized for past acquisitions. Now need to sell off assets and refocus, and they've done that. Chart reflects what's gone on in energy patch. She doesn't have any energy exposure now.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 9, 2019
There is a play on energy names going into the election as there may be money coming into the sector depending on who wins. He would trade it but not invest in it. It should be an underweight.
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There is a play on energy names going into the election as there may be money coming into the sector depending on who wins. He would trade it but not invest in it. It should be an underweight.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 6, 2019
Has the culture been fixed? Have they decided what to do with the dividend? He feels they have now found religion with regards to their acquisitions. The only thing that can fix them is a slow down in US oil supply -- that could take some time. Given their past on acquisitions, he would pass.
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Has the culture been fixed? Have they decided what to do with the dividend? He feels they have now found religion with regards to their acquisitions. The only thing that can fix them is a slow down in US oil supply -- that could take some time. Given their past on acquisitions, he would pass.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 30, 2019
It still has an ancient stigma, but that's old history. It trades at a 20% free cash flow yield, and trading at 70% of its liquidation value. Land interests total $1.1 billion. or 50% of its market cap. They're marketing some infrastructure assets. If they take one-third of that to pay down debt they can buyback 20% of all shares. A deep discount name that can unlock a lot of value with a catalyst. (Analysts’ price target is $6.91)
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It still has an ancient stigma, but that's old history. It trades at a 20% free cash flow yield, and trading at 70% of its liquidation value. Land interests total $1.1 billion. or 50% of its market cap. They're marketing some infrastructure assets. If they take one-third of that to pay down debt they can buyback 20% of all shares. A deep discount name that can unlock a lot of value with a catalyst. (Analysts’ price target is $6.91)
SELL STRENGTH
SELL STRENGTH
August 26, 2019
It has a debt problem. They are planning to sell assets. Now they are talking about mid-stream assets in Canada. They cut the dividend and are now talking about stock buybacks. He owns a small amount but is not enamored with it. He would sell at $7. (Analysts’ price target is $6.91)
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It has a debt problem. They are planning to sell assets. Now they are talking about mid-stream assets in Canada. They cut the dividend and are now talking about stock buybacks. He owns a small amount but is not enamored with it. He would sell at $7. (Analysts’ price target is $6.91)
BUY
BUY
August 19, 2019

He sold Suncor to buy this recently. It is hitting bottom. He bought it around $3.80, because it can jump to $5 quickly on positive news.

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He sold Suncor to buy this recently. It is hitting bottom. He bought it around $3.80, because it can jump to $5 quickly on positive news.

WAIT
WAIT
August 16, 2019
All oil stocks have been hit in a very difficult environment, though CPG itself is well-run with good value and a decent balance sheet. Wait till after tax-loss selling season.
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All oil stocks have been hit in a very difficult environment, though CPG itself is well-run with good value and a decent balance sheet. Wait till after tax-loss selling season.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 19, 2019
More than any other company, they realize the need to buyback shares. They could buyback 8% of shares based on 25% free cash flow yield. It trades at only 70% of their liquidation value, so they won't spend money on growth. Balance sheet is strong. Nothing wrong here. CPG is clealy mispriced. (Analysts’ price target is $6.80)
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More than any other company, they realize the need to buyback shares. They could buyback 8% of shares based on 25% free cash flow yield. It trades at only 70% of their liquidation value, so they won't spend money on growth. Balance sheet is strong. Nothing wrong here. CPG is clealy mispriced. (Analysts’ price target is $6.80)
HOLD
HOLD
July 11, 2019

LNG had been sinking for some time, and the stock sold way off. About a 66% discount to book value right now. Earnings forecast has turned up. There is hope that oil prices are turning around, and perhaps nat gas has found a base. If you own it, don't sell.

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LNG had been sinking for some time, and the stock sold way off. About a 66% discount to book value right now. Earnings forecast has turned up. There is hope that oil prices are turning around, and perhaps nat gas has found a base. If you own it, don't sell.

HOLD
HOLD
June 24, 2019
People consider it to be very cheap. You aren’t getting per share growth because debt pay down is their priority. You need a rally in the commodity price. They will muddle along with their peers.
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People consider it to be very cheap. You aren’t getting per share growth because debt pay down is their priority. You need a rally in the commodity price. They will muddle along with their peers.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 17, 2019
This used to be his largest oil holding. Investors are worried. The whole oil complex is under pressure, but this is a good company. Canada doesn't have a pipeline, and he doesn't see that changing soon. However, if another pipeline is built, then CPG will greatly recover. He doesn't own much oil, only 3-5% in his portfolio.
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This used to be his largest oil holding. Investors are worried. The whole oil complex is under pressure, but this is a good company. Canada doesn't have a pipeline, and he doesn't see that changing soon. However, if another pipeline is built, then CPG will greatly recover. He doesn't own much oil, only 3-5% in his portfolio.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 14, 2019
Oil in two years He can't predict oil. He won't touch this, not even at $4. They've made their balance sheet worse. His model price $5.31. There are more write-offs--and pain--to come.
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Oil in two years He can't predict oil. He won't touch this, not even at $4. They've made their balance sheet worse. His model price $5.31. There are more write-offs--and pain--to come.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 10, 2019
They have debt and when you don't know your revenue, debt is a scary thing. The question is how do you feel about oil prices. He does not think fack wells are that attractive unless you have lots of capital. It depends where you think oil prices are going in Western Canada.
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They have debt and when you don't know your revenue, debt is a scary thing. The question is how do you feel about oil prices. He does not think fack wells are that attractive unless you have lots of capital. It depends where you think oil prices are going in Western Canada.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 15, 2019
CPG-T has gone through a rough spell. Despite higher oil prices, they have not recovered to the same degree. He blames their last acquisition as it forced them to cut the dividend. They are no longer the glamour stock. They have to "show me" before he gets back in. He would pursue the bigger more liquid names first.
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CPG-T has gone through a rough spell. Despite higher oil prices, they have not recovered to the same degree. He blames their last acquisition as it forced them to cut the dividend. They are no longer the glamour stock. They have to "show me" before he gets back in. He would pursue the bigger more liquid names first.
WATCH
WATCH
May 9, 2019
They should be cautious before raising the dividend. There is a lot going on in the oil patch in Canada. It consolidated and then there was a downturn and it is still in a consolidation phase. May 9 is the end of the seasonal period for it so there will be more consolidation for the sector at this point. There is nothing wrong with it but he would wait on it.
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They should be cautious before raising the dividend. There is a lot going on in the oil patch in Canada. It consolidated and then there was a downturn and it is still in a consolidation phase. May 9 is the end of the seasonal period for it so there will be more consolidation for the sector at this point. There is nothing wrong with it but he would wait on it.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 29, 2019
The company has revamped, but the market hasn't responded. Is it a takeover target? Their payout used to be over 100% and issued more and more equity. That model is gone, and it's now much more sustainable. They have solid assets in the Prairies. When Canada changes governments and foreign capital buys Canadian energy stocks again, then CPG will definitely be a takeover target.
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The company has revamped, but the market hasn't responded. Is it a takeover target? Their payout used to be over 100% and issued more and more equity. That model is gone, and it's now much more sustainable. They have solid assets in the Prairies. When Canada changes governments and foreign capital buys Canadian energy stocks again, then CPG will definitely be a takeover target.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 26, 2019
ATH-T is a prior top pick that he sold about a month ago to buy CPG-T (who has been buying back shares on free cash-flow). He has concerns over ATH-T liquidity in the market and he held heavy oil exposure in other bigger names. ATH-T has done well to deleverage their balance sheet.
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ATH-T is a prior top pick that he sold about a month ago to buy CPG-T (who has been buying back shares on free cash-flow). He has concerns over ATH-T liquidity in the market and he held heavy oil exposure in other bigger names. ATH-T has done well to deleverage their balance sheet.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 26, 2019
He has been critical of them in the past, but it is a new story. The new managment team understands the opportunity when their company trades below book value. They are trading at 26% yield of free cash flow. They should hold production flat, harvest the cash and buy back shares. They have infrastructure and production to monetize and buy back shares. Yield 0.76%. (Analysts’ price target is $7.03)
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He has been critical of them in the past, but it is a new story. The new managment team understands the opportunity when their company trades below book value. They are trading at 26% yield of free cash flow. They should hold production flat, harvest the cash and buy back shares. They have infrastructure and production to monetize and buy back shares. Yield 0.76%. (Analysts’ price target is $7.03)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 22, 2019
He's researched this a lot. He's disappointed with all its write-offs and he's very negative about this. The market still doesn't like some things on its balance sheet. This isn't ready to return to highs yet--but he'll keep his eye on it.
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He's researched this a lot. He's disappointed with all its write-offs and he's very negative about this. The market still doesn't like some things on its balance sheet. This isn't ready to return to highs yet--but he'll keep his eye on it.