Valero Energy Corp

VLO-N

NYSE:VLO

70.18
1.48 (2.15%)
Valero Energy Corporation is a Fortune 500 international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels, other petrochemical products, and power. It is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, United States.
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Analysis and Opinions about VLO-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 6, 2012
Would stay away from the refiners right now. Crack spreads have tightened right now.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
February 6, 2012
Would stay away from the refiners right now. Crack spreads have tightened right now.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 20, 2011
Cracking margin has really blown out. They are a refining company. Lot of refining capability. They have a valuable business model and they have diversity. They are trading at a discount to pier group.
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Cracking margin has really blown out. They are a refining company. Lot of refining capability. They have a valuable business model and they have diversity. They are trading at a discount to pier group.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 24, 2011
Refining is an ugly business. Not an industry of secular growth but one of cyclical margin swings. Hard to make money at it and plants are hard to run. Sector has just had a bounce off a significant rally. Has a fair amount of debt. If dynamics for the sector continue positive for a little while, they will be more of a beneficiary than the un-levered players. (He just sold a refiner, Frontier Oil (FTO-N).)
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
February 24, 2011
Refining is an ugly business. Not an industry of secular growth but one of cyclical margin swings. Hard to make money at it and plants are hard to run. Sector has just had a bounce off a significant rally. Has a fair amount of debt. If dynamics for the sector continue positive for a little while, they will be more of a beneficiary than the un-levered players. (He just sold a refiner, Frontier Oil (FTO-N).)
BUY
BUY
February 17, 2011
His model price is $44.50, a 45% positive differential. These stocks are very cyclical and pricing has to be exactly right in order for the refiners to make money.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
February 17, 2011
His model price is $44.50, a 45% positive differential. These stocks are very cyclical and pricing has to be exactly right in order for the refiners to make money.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 31, 2010
(Market Call Minute.) Refining sector has been one of the most horrible ones over the last couple of years. Still too much capacity and too much inventory and nobody is making any money.
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(Market Call Minute.) Refining sector has been one of the most horrible ones over the last couple of years. Still too much capacity and too much inventory and nobody is making any money.
SELL
SELL
March 5, 2010
(Market Call Minute) It refines and he is negative on refineries.
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(Market Call Minute) It refines and he is negative on refineries.
HOLD
HOLD
January 29, 2010
(Market Call Minute.) Pre-eminent refining company. Refining is in a tough spot but oil prices will go up.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
January 29, 2010
(Market Call Minute.) Pre-eminent refining company. Refining is in a tough spot but oil prices will go up.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 26, 2010
While oil price has been going up, demand has not. This one is not attractive enough over the long term to be in it.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
January 26, 2010
While oil price has been going up, demand has not. This one is not attractive enough over the long term to be in it.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 29, 2009
Refiners have had a very challenging period. Going forward there are other opportunities to put your money, as he doesn't see a dramatic recovery in the sector.
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Refiners have had a very challenging period. Going forward there are other opportunities to put your money, as he doesn't see a dramatic recovery in the sector.
HOLD
HOLD
July 24, 2009
Crack spreads are not moving up. Can refine many grades of crude but they don't get paid for this. Can't see any upside.
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Crack spreads are not moving up. Can refine many grades of crude but they don't get paid for this. Can't see any upside.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 22, 2009
Largest independent refinery/gas marketing in North America. Margins are squeezed and it is not profitable to be in this business. Refineries are up for sale or are being closed so in the long run this will be good as capacity comes down.
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Largest independent refinery/gas marketing in North America. Margins are squeezed and it is not profitable to be in this business. Refineries are up for sale or are being closed so in the long run this will be good as capacity comes down.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 30, 2009
Largest independent oil refiner and marketer in North America. Don't own oil wells. They buy oil, refine and sell through their own gas stations or wholesale it out. Dependent on margins that the market gives them at the time. In the last year or so, it has not been a great business to be in. You have to watch what the margins are.
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Largest independent oil refiner and marketer in North America. Don't own oil wells. They buy oil, refine and sell through their own gas stations or wholesale it out. Dependent on margins that the market gives them at the time. In the last year or so, it has not been a great business to be in. You have to watch what the margins are.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 30, 2009
Refiners tend to do a little bit better in the summer. If you expect energy prices to hold these levels and work higher, you will likely do better in a producer rather than a refiner.
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Refiners tend to do a little bit better in the summer. If you expect energy prices to hold these levels and work higher, you will likely do better in a producer rather than a refiner.
BUY
BUY
February 24, 2009
His model price is $34.87, a 75% positive differential.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
February 24, 2009
His model price is $34.87, a 75% positive differential.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 13, 2009
Crack spread has been going up nicely from $4 to about $15 in the last 3 weeks. Even though this company is lagging other companies he wouldn't worry about it. One of the biggest and most liquid and will play catch-up. If the crack spread narrows, the price of the stock will drop again.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
February 13, 2009
Crack spread has been going up nicely from $4 to about $15 in the last 3 weeks. Even though this company is lagging other companies he wouldn't worry about it. One of the biggest and most liquid and will play catch-up. If the crack spread narrows, the price of the stock will drop again.
BUY
BUY
January 30, 2009
Refinery and makes its money from the crack spread. Gasoline just made a reverse head and shoulders pattern implying that gasoline/heating oil prices are starting to move very strongly relative to crude oil. Very positive fundamentally. Stock looks like it has been oversold. Has a good chance of getting close to its breakdown point of $46.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
January 30, 2009
Refinery and makes its money from the crack spread. Gasoline just made a reverse head and shoulders pattern implying that gasoline/heating oil prices are starting to move very strongly relative to crude oil. Very positive fundamentally. Stock looks like it has been oversold. Has a good chance of getting close to its breakdown point of $46.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 30, 2009
Started to close some capacity at some of their refineries because the crack spreads have not been favourable. This is why the stock price has come down. Best in class as far as refineries are concerned but this is not the right time.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
January 30, 2009
Started to close some capacity at some of their refineries because the crack spreads have not been favourable. This is why the stock price has come down. Best in class as far as refineries are concerned but this is not the right time.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 3, 2008
Had a little bit of positive news on draws on US inventory today but it is hard to be bullish on refiners. Catalytic spreads are way down. You'll have to see a recovery by the consumer first.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
December 3, 2008
Had a little bit of positive news on draws on US inventory today but it is hard to be bullish on refiners. Catalytic spreads are way down. You'll have to see a recovery by the consumer first.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 12, 2008
Refineries are almost structured to be trading vehicles rather than long-term holds. Trading is tough at the best of times, let alone these times.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
November 12, 2008
Refineries are almost structured to be trading vehicles rather than long-term holds. Trading is tough at the best of times, let alone these times.
HOLD
HOLD
October 22, 2008
Right now you don't want to be buying independent refineries. There are a lot of heavy oil refineries under development that are going to come out globally. If you own, Hold until the heating season and the early parts of the winter, as there is some seasonality in the share price.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
October 22, 2008
Right now you don't want to be buying independent refineries. There are a lot of heavy oil refineries under development that are going to come out globally. If you own, Hold until the heating season and the early parts of the winter, as there is some seasonality in the share price.
BUY
BUY
September 10, 2008
One of the largest refiners in the US. Benefiting right now because of falling oil prices. This is a stock that he was looking at but bought Marathon Oil (MRO-N) instead.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
September 10, 2008
One of the largest refiners in the US. Benefiting right now because of falling oil prices. This is a stock that he was looking at but bought Marathon Oil (MRO-N) instead.
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 8, 2008
Refiners have been hit pretty hard. With the price of oil going down, the market should be bullish on refiners but he feels oil will hold at $100. This is a value play and could be good as a long-term play.
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Valero Energy Corp (VLO-N)
September 8, 2008
Refiners have been hit pretty hard. With the price of oil going down, the market should be bullish on refiners but he feels oil will hold at $100. This is a value play and could be good as a long-term play.
WAIT
WAIT
August 20, 2008
He is very positive on refining. This is a bear market but on a longer time horizon the assets should be worth an awful lot. There is excess refining capacity right now. On a 2 or 3 year basis, it's a great time to buy. However, this one can go a lot lower.
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He is very positive on refining. This is a bear market but on a longer time horizon the assets should be worth an awful lot. There is excess refining capacity right now. On a 2 or 3 year basis, it's a great time to buy. However, this one can go a lot lower.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 14, 2008
Has been caught up in the squeeze on refinery margins. With the current retreat of crude, refinery margins might improve so there could be a bit of a bounce back. You could get more protected exposure through Petro-Can (PCA-T) or one of the integrateds in Canada.
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Has been caught up in the squeeze on refinery margins. With the current retreat of crude, refinery margins might improve so there could be a bit of a bounce back. You could get more protected exposure through Petro-Can (PCA-T) or one of the integrateds in Canada.
BUY
BUY
August 12, 2008
Largest independent refining and marketer in the US of gasoline. Has suffered greatly as oil prices have gone up. Margins at the refining level and retail level has shrunk. Drop in oil prices is bullish for this company.
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Largest independent refining and marketer in the US of gasoline. Has suffered greatly as oil prices have gone up. Margins at the refining level and retail level has shrunk. Drop in oil prices is bullish for this company.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 11, 2008
Spreads are not attractive enough to get into this stock. Would need $70-$80 oil. Service companies are a better option.
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Spreads are not attractive enough to get into this stock. Would need $70-$80 oil. Service companies are a better option.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 6, 2008
(A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 51%.) Everything has gone wrong for the refiners including refining capacity in the majors. As a value manager, his big concern would be a Value Trap. Once this one dropped its market cap on the S&P 500, he dropped its weighting. Still has value and great earnings.
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(A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 51%.) Everything has gone wrong for the refiners including refining capacity in the majors. As a value manager, his big concern would be a Value Trap. Once this one dropped its market cap on the S&P 500, he dropped its weighting. Still has value and great earnings.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 5, 2008
Refinery. Has had a difficult time because of high oil prices and managing the mix between distillates and gasoline etc. Believes that oil is in a correction, not broken down. Difficult industry and margins are very tough to make. There are better places for your money.
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Refinery. Has had a difficult time because of high oil prices and managing the mix between distillates and gasoline etc. Believes that oil is in a correction, not broken down. Difficult industry and margins are very tough to make. There are better places for your money.
BUY
BUY
July 21, 2008
A buying opportunity, but it is not going to turn around overnight.
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A buying opportunity, but it is not going to turn around overnight.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 11, 2008
From a profitability standpoint, refiners are in a difficult spot. They are geared to produce as much gasoline as they can but gas inventories are not tight. However, diesel inventories are tight. Crude prices continue to move higher.
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From a profitability standpoint, refiners are in a difficult spot. They are geared to produce as much gasoline as they can but gas inventories are not tight. However, diesel inventories are tight. Crude prices continue to move higher.
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