Archer Daniels Midland Company

ADM-N

NYSE:ADM

41.14
0.63 (1.56%)
The Archer Daniels Midland Company is an American global food processing and commodities trading corporation, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
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Analysis and Opinions about ADM-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
HOLD
HOLD
July 11, 2017

This had a big earnings collapse. It is currently at $40.81, and his model price is $45.64. There was a big decline in the model price from about $64, and is not sure why that happened. 3.14% dividend yield.

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This had a big earnings collapse. It is currently at $40.81, and his model price is $45.64. There was a big decline in the model price from about $64, and is not sure why that happened. 3.14% dividend yield.

BUY
BUY
October 24, 2016

AGU-T vs. ADM-N. AGU-T has the merger firmly baked into the stock. ADM-T is well positioned with good commodity exposure and from here has a good 15-20% upside in the stock. They don’t use opportunistic hedges but have a commodities trading desk and lock in some of their contracts.

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AGU-T vs. ADM-N. AGU-T has the merger firmly baked into the stock. ADM-T is well positioned with good commodity exposure and from here has a good 15-20% upside in the stock. They don’t use opportunistic hedges but have a commodities trading desk and lock in some of their contracts.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 13, 2015

(Top Pick Sep 9/14, Down 4.39%) He got stopped out. The AG space had been choppy at best. He got out in the fall of last year.

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(Top Pick Sep 9/14, Down 4.39%) He got stopped out. The AG space had been choppy at best. He got out in the fall of last year.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 4, 2015

A very difficult company to understand. In the grain trading business. A few years ago there was a very popular story about the consumption of grain. Asian consumers in particular were going to be eating more protein, which was going to drive the demand for grain, and grain prices were going to go up. We are not so convinced now about that story, and grains are actually in a big surplus. Would be wary of this.

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A very difficult company to understand. In the grain trading business. A few years ago there was a very popular story about the consumption of grain. Asian consumers in particular were going to be eating more protein, which was going to drive the demand for grain, and grain prices were going to go up. We are not so convinced now about that story, and grains are actually in a big surplus. Would be wary of this.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 3, 2014

(A Top Pick Sept 15/14. Up 6.72%.) (These 3 were a “Buy on Weakness of the market” plays.) From about mid October through to the end of the year is the time of the year for agricultural stocks.

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(A Top Pick Sept 15/14. Up 6.72%.) (These 3 were a “Buy on Weakness of the market” plays.) From about mid October through to the end of the year is the time of the year for agricultural stocks.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 14, 2014

His model price is $50.41, a 13% upside. The risk here would be that it could fall back to the $41.50 level if the markets sell off any more. He would be a buyer at that level. 2% dividend yield.

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His model price is $50.41, a 13% upside. The risk here would be that it could fall back to the $41.50 level if the markets sell off any more. He would be a buyer at that level. 2% dividend yield.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 15, 2014

The 3 Top Picks are “Buy on Weakness” plays. Agriculture products tend to do well from August all the way through to the end of the year. However, we have seen grain prices get crushed preventing fertilizer stocks from doing well. This is just a food processor so it doesn’t have that fluctuation. On average, it gains about 16% from the beginning of August through to the end of December and has been positive 90% of the time.

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The 3 Top Picks are “Buy on Weakness” plays. Agriculture products tend to do well from August all the way through to the end of the year. However, we have seen grain prices get crushed preventing fertilizer stocks from doing well. This is just a food processor so it doesn’t have that fluctuation. On average, it gains about 16% from the beginning of August through to the end of December and has been positive 90% of the time.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 9, 2014

This is a beneficiary of the huge crop in corn and wheat. Prices for the product are very weak, but all they do is process, so it just comes down to volume for them. They came off 2 years where there was drought in the US and their earnings were depressed. They have become very efficient to deal with that. Now they have a bumper crop and are likely to have much higher volumes. Generates cash flow yield of almost 8%. Very shareholder friendly. Have grown their dividend 15% a year over the last 4 years. That is likely to continue. Yield of 1.9%.

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This is a beneficiary of the huge crop in corn and wheat. Prices for the product are very weak, but all they do is process, so it just comes down to volume for them. They came off 2 years where there was drought in the US and their earnings were depressed. They have become very efficient to deal with that. Now they have a bumper crop and are likely to have much higher volumes. Generates cash flow yield of almost 8%. Very shareholder friendly. Have grown their dividend 15% a year over the last 4 years. That is likely to continue. Yield of 1.9%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 10, 2014

Recently acquired Wild Flavorings, food additives, but the acquisition didn’t really do much. With the global weather and the droughts, food and grain prices are up and down. This kind of company is not universally liked, but the product they sell and make, will continue to do well over time. Over the long run, you are going to see more names like this, and he could definitely see holding a position in this company.

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Recently acquired Wild Flavorings, food additives, but the acquisition didn’t really do much. With the global weather and the droughts, food and grain prices are up and down. This kind of company is not universally liked, but the product they sell and make, will continue to do well over time. Over the long run, you are going to see more names like this, and he could definitely see holding a position in this company.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 2, 2014

One of the dominant players in the agricultural space with commodity exposure, but when you look at their ability to hedge commodity exposure, this is one of the best companies in the business. He sees another 10%-15% upside in this company before the end of the year. 2.2% dividend yield.

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One of the dominant players in the agricultural space with commodity exposure, but when you look at their ability to hedge commodity exposure, this is one of the best companies in the business. He sees another 10%-15% upside in this company before the end of the year. 2.2% dividend yield.

WATCH
WATCH
January 22, 2013

Great diversified play. Global food company. One of the premier companies in the business of feeding the world. Diversified book of business. Multistage revenue growth, both from emerging as well as developed markets. Has seen some deceleration in earnings and looking at their revenue, they are challenged to find a footing in the market. Sort of in the 7th inning stretch. Nowhere near accelerations yet but one to keep your eye on.

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Great diversified play. Global food company. One of the premier companies in the business of feeding the world. Diversified book of business. Multistage revenue growth, both from emerging as well as developed markets. Has seen some deceleration in earnings and looking at their revenue, they are challenged to find a footing in the market. Sort of in the 7th inning stretch. Nowhere near accelerations yet but one to keep your eye on.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 30, 2012

If you own, you might want to consider selling this for tax loss selling and then, after 30 days, buy it back. There are a lot of good companies out there and he would probably look at others. (Canadian instead of US.)

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If you own, you might want to consider selling this for tax loss selling and then, after 30 days, buy it back. There are a lot of good companies out there and he would probably look at others. (Canadian instead of US.)

PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
September 6, 2012

Has been hit hard because of the run-up in corn prices. If you own, he would recommend that you sell half your position. Fundamentally, this is a good company and has demonstrated tremendous growth over the last 4-5 years. This could be a temporary setback for them.

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Has been hit hard because of the run-up in corn prices. If you own, he would recommend that you sell half your position. Fundamentally, this is a good company and has demonstrated tremendous growth over the last 4-5 years. This could be a temporary setback for them.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 22, 2012

Too many moving parts for him. It is too sensitive to commodity prices. When agriculture prices skyrocket by the drought, it hurts companies like this.

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Too many moving parts for him. It is too sensitive to commodity prices. When agriculture prices skyrocket by the drought, it hurts companies like this.

HOLD
HOLD
August 17, 2012

Has been volatile, meandering stock,. Tends to rise in the latter half of the year. This would be one of the first stock he sold if the market started to roll over.

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Has been volatile, meandering stock,. Tends to rise in the latter half of the year. This would be one of the first stock he sold if the market started to roll over.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
February 21, 2012
Recently reported a really lousy quarter but even so, the stock went up. Very complicated company to follow. Just because corn prices and fertilizers are going higher, doesn't mean they are making more or less money. You have to look at this one on a yearly basis. Cheap on valuation and a great raiser of dividends. Try to get under $30.
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Recently reported a really lousy quarter but even so, the stock went up. Very complicated company to follow. Just because corn prices and fertilizers are going higher, doesn't mean they are making more or less money. You have to look at this one on a yearly basis. Cheap on valuation and a great raiser of dividends. Try to get under $30.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 30, 2012
One of the underlying catalysts for this has been the grand peripheral (?) trade. That whole valley chain has caused land prices for farmers to reach inflated levels. As, at the same time as a Chinese big demand for these food commodities. Longer-term, you have a backdrop of sovereign risk at the banking levels for the US governments. Wonders if longer-term, the trade is going to unwind.
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One of the underlying catalysts for this has been the grand peripheral (?) trade. That whole valley chain has caused land prices for farmers to reach inflated levels. As, at the same time as a Chinese big demand for these food commodities. Longer-term, you have a backdrop of sovereign risk at the banking levels for the US governments. Wonders if longer-term, the trade is going to unwind.
SELL
SELL
January 11, 2012
So many moving parts to it that it is tough to figure out. Announced a layoff today. Never great news.
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So many moving parts to it that it is tough to figure out. Announced a layoff today. Never great news.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 19, 2011
(A Top Pick Dec 22/10. Down 7.56%.) Grain handling. Still things the global demand for food stuff is a good story. Still likes.
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(A Top Pick Dec 22/10. Down 7.56%.) Grain handling. Still things the global demand for food stuff is a good story. Still likes.
BUY
BUY
December 12, 2011
Very hard and complex company to understand. Involved in making additives for food as well as in the trading business. Does like that they are the biggest supplier of soybeans to China and over time, China is going to need more and more soybeans. Very cheap on a PE basis trading at a Price to Book Value of 1. Has raised its dividend 30+ years in a row.
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Very hard and complex company to understand. Involved in making additives for food as well as in the trading business. Does like that they are the biggest supplier of soybeans to China and over time, China is going to need more and more soybeans. Very cheap on a PE basis trading at a Price to Book Value of 1. Has raised its dividend 30+ years in a row.
SELL
SELL
November 23, 2011
Too many moving parts. Crop prices/failure, flowthrough issues. Tough industry.
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Too many moving parts. Crop prices/failure, flowthrough issues. Tough industry.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 21, 2011
(A Top Pick Nov 4/10. Down 8.02%.) Agriculture services company. Exporter of corn, soy, etc. Had a really good year last year and raised its dividend twice. The problem is that they had a lousy 1st quarter. Very cheap at 9X earnings.
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(A Top Pick Nov 4/10. Down 8.02%.) Agriculture services company. Exporter of corn, soy, etc. Had a really good year last year and raised its dividend twice. The problem is that they had a lousy 1st quarter. Very cheap at 9X earnings.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 13, 2011
Processor of oil seeds. With crop size being small it could impact their revenues. Prefers not to be in processors but in fertilizers.
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Processor of oil seeds. With crop size being small it could impact their revenues. Prefers not to be in processors but in fertilizers.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 28, 2011
There were serious spikes in food commodities and they are now reversing course, which are squeezing margins. Would prefer a company with a longer-term cycle like Deere (DE-N). Can be quite volatile.
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There were serious spikes in food commodities and they are now reversing course, which are squeezing margins. Would prefer a company with a longer-term cycle like Deere (DE-N). Can be quite volatile.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 14, 2011
Into everything to do with what goes into food, grains, edible oils and the like. A major global player. Have a lot of pricing power. Have been looking at this, but it is a little too expensive.
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Into everything to do with what goes into food, grains, edible oils and the like. A major global player. Have a lot of pricing power. Have been looking at this, but it is a little too expensive.
BUY
BUY
June 3, 2011
One of the leading global grain producers, storage and traders. Great company but a lot of analysts have trouble on how to properly predict earnings. He believes in the long term story on agriculture and this is an excellent way to play it.
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One of the leading global grain producers, storage and traders. Great company but a lot of analysts have trouble on how to properly predict earnings. He believes in the long term story on agriculture and this is an excellent way to play it.
BUY
BUY
March 9, 2011
Used to be his top pick. He has always liked the name. They need to watch for $7 corn because the spread within Corn/Ethanol will be problematic is corn starts to creep up. They are the top ethanol producer in the US. It’s always a great stock to get on pullbacks. It’s a good name to own as a defense against grain prices.
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Used to be his top pick. He has always liked the name. They need to watch for $7 corn because the spread within Corn/Ethanol will be problematic is corn starts to creep up. They are the top ethanol producer in the US. It’s always a great stock to get on pullbacks. It’s a good name to own as a defense against grain prices.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 1, 2011
(A Top Pick Feb 19/09. Up 26.55%.) (BNN indicated Top Picks as being on Feb 19/10 but were actually Picks on Feb 19/09 so percentages could be wrong.)
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(A Top Pick Feb 19/09. Up 26.55%.) (BNN indicated Top Picks as being on Feb 19/10 but were actually Picks on Feb 19/09 so percentages could be wrong.)
BUY
BUY
February 16, 2011
One of the best agricultural/grain processing companies. Buy grain globally, process it and then sell it. Strong business in high fructose corn syrup. Expect sugar prices will increase so corn syrup is a good substitute. $40 longer term.
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One of the best agricultural/grain processing companies. Buy grain globally, process it and then sell it. Strong business in high fructose corn syrup. Expect sugar prices will increase so corn syrup is a good substitute. $40 longer term.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 19, 2011
(Top Pick Feb 16/10, 16.45%) Saw some volatility numbers he wasn’t comfortable with and exited the position.
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(Top Pick Feb 16/10, 16.45%) Saw some volatility numbers he wasn’t comfortable with and exited the position.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
December 30, 2010
Hasn’t performed all that well this year. One of the biggest companies that supplies seeds. As a long term strategic holding it is something you should have. 2-3 year horizon.
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Hasn’t performed all that well this year. One of the biggest companies that supplies seeds. As a long term strategic holding it is something you should have. 2-3 year horizon.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 22, 2010
Biggest grain and vegetable oil trader globally. Asia will start demanding more and more oil seeds and grains and this company is well positioned to benefit.
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Biggest grain and vegetable oil trader globally. Asia will start demanding more and more oil seeds and grains and this company is well positioned to benefit.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 10, 2010
Food and agriculture. A lot of risk such as crop failures, input risks of ag commodity prices.
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Food and agriculture. A lot of risk such as crop failures, input risks of ag commodity prices.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 4, 2010
One of the largest distributors of grains, crops and especially soybeans. China imports 55 Million tones of soybeans and can only produce 15 tones. Problem with soybeans is you can’t just throw more fertilizer on them, they need lots of water and China is a little short of water. Biggest risk is crop prices dropping. This quarter they couldn’t source grains from Russia. Over the long term this is a great place to be. Raised dividends 37 years in a row and is trading at a cheap valuation.
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One of the largest distributors of grains, crops and especially soybeans. China imports 55 Million tones of soybeans and can only produce 15 tones. Problem with soybeans is you can’t just throw more fertilizer on them, they need lots of water and China is a little short of water. Biggest risk is crop prices dropping. This quarter they couldn’t source grains from Russia. Over the long term this is a great place to be. Raised dividends 37 years in a row and is trading at a cheap valuation.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 31, 2010
(A Top Pick April 3/09. No Change.)
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(A Top Pick April 3/09. No Change.)
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 1, 2010
(Top Pick Sep 29/09, Up 7.2%) (Preferred A.)It’s in the conversion range right now. Likes the company. Margins of Corn Ethanol have been strong. Lot of cash in their balance sheet. 6.5% dividend. Safe as it come close to its conversion price.
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(Top Pick Sep 29/09, Up 7.2%) (Preferred A.)It’s in the conversion range right now. Likes the company. Margins of Corn Ethanol have been strong. Lot of cash in their balance sheet. 6.5% dividend. Safe as it come close to its conversion price.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 19, 2010
(Top Pick Feb. 19/09, Up 9.82%)
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(Top Pick Feb. 19/09, Up 9.82%)
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 16, 2010
(Preferred A.)Put option $29.56 on ADM-N. It’s a good way to gradually accumulate a position. He has been working this way for may years. Is a beneficiary of global agricultural demand. Volumes and margins are strong. Recently raised dividends.
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(Preferred A.)Put option $29.56 on ADM-N. It’s a good way to gradually accumulate a position. He has been working this way for may years. Is a beneficiary of global agricultural demand. Volumes and margins are strong. Recently raised dividends.
VAGUE
VAGUE
January 26, 2010
Cash flow does not exceed earnings so he doesn’t like this one, but has bought it for snowbirds for its income.
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Cash flow does not exceed earnings so he doesn’t like this one, but has bought it for snowbirds for its income.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 30, 2009
(A Top Pick Apr 3/09. Up 11.15%.) Still likes.
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(A Top Pick Apr 3/09. Up 11.15%.) Still likes.