Baytex Energy Corp

BTE-T

For TFSA? BTE is the poster child of beaten-up Canadian oil stocks. They have a great asset in the U.S. They have both good and bad, but BTE will move with the oil price which is weak now, but will probably go higher in 20201. But BTE still carries a lot of debt. Not the ideal stock in this sector.

(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 58%) It remains a core holding, but it's fallen off the radar of investors. Investors aren't buying Canadian oil. Trades at 30% free cash flow yield. He expects 2x debt-to-cash flow in the second half of 2019. By then, they should heavily buyback shares.

It's fallen off many radar screens. Their leverage will be lower in coming months. Trades at 30% free cash flow yield and positioned to buyback a lot of shares. It is clearly mispriced now. (Analysts’ price target is $3.55)

It has been a while since he held it. He prefers owning the senior producers, when it comes to heavy oil. Their projects have not been well capitalized and they have taken time to get the Duvernay assets incorporated from the Raging River acquisition. Nothing wrong with it and they are paying down debt. There are just better opportunities out there.

Canadian oil stocks are finally seeing what the market wants from them: stop production growth, pay shareholders, buy back shares and pay down debt. Hopefully this translates into higher stock prices. We've seen a massive exodus of investment from this sector. Valuations are cheap enough. (Analysts’ price target is $3.59)

It's very cheap and profitable. The balance sheet has gotten better. This should trade at $4, though he can't see it happening. The current price is a good entry, but the oil sector needs a catalyst (i.e. pipelines) for this--and other energy stocks--to really move.

Stock had a run, but collapsed when earnings didn't follow. Cheap at $1.68, and he'd buy it.

Perception that western Canada is uninvestible. He owns the bonds at 6.5% instead, and he doesn't have to take the equity risk.

It's consolidating and could return to the bottom of its trading range. It's sideways. He's lukewarm on it.

(A Top Pick Dec 14/18, Up 12%) He is surprised it is not getting more favour than it is. He is seeing good exposure to the Duvernay and Eagleford plays. It is trading at a 25% free cash-flow yield. He thinks they could even privatize themselves by buying back their shares.

Because the balance sheet has been repaired, when they trade at a discount to book value they can use free cash flow to buy back shares. They are trading at a 25% free cash flow yield -- in theory they could buy back their shares in 4 years using this strategy. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $3.90)

Not a fan. Debt level is high at 69%. Narrowing differentials is helping. Management increased its pay package, even though stock is on sale at 2 for 1. This isn't right. When you get your proxy, take a stand and make your vote count.

He has a $4.50 target but this pays no dividend. Has owned this in the past. He avoids Canadian oil companies given the lack of capacity, owning only 6% oil mostly outside Canada through the HPF-T. That said, we've seen a rebound in oil prices.

It's caught in the Canadian oil stock downturn. They cut the dividend. They hold big assets in Texas shale, so there's opportunity there. But the chart shows no sign of perking up. Maybe higher oil prices will help.

This is a Canadian energy company. They made an acquisition in the US unfortunately at the top of the cycle. He does not own highly levered oil and gas companies. There are others that are much more attractive. He prefers clean balance sheets.