West Fraser Timber

WFT-T

TSE:WFT

62.95
1.66 (2.57%)
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. is a Canadian forestry company based in Quesnel, British Columbia. West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. is a member of the Forest Products Association of Canada.
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Analysis and Opinions about WFT-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 19, 2018

Merger with Canfor? Cheap, well-run, but there’s softwood lumber deal risk. Market has already reacted to the softwood deal. They’ve heard M&A speculation, but unlikely with Canfor. Not a lot of M&A in public companies, instead, companies just buy smaller US mills. Outlook very strong, and upcoming earnings should be good, especially given strong lumber prices.

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Merger with Canfor? Cheap, well-run, but there’s softwood lumber deal risk. Market has already reacted to the softwood deal. They’ve heard M&A speculation, but unlikely with Canfor. Not a lot of M&A in public companies, instead, companies just buy smaller US mills. Outlook very strong, and upcoming earnings should be good, especially given strong lumber prices.

HOLD
HOLD
April 19, 2018

There are restrictions on Canadian exports of lumber. Lumber futures just hit a record high. Party of it has to do with demand. Never short anything just as it is going up even if the valuation makes no sense. Wait for it to peak and is in the down trend.

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There are restrictions on Canadian exports of lumber. Lumber futures just hit a record high. Party of it has to do with demand. Never short anything just as it is going up even if the valuation makes no sense. Wait for it to peak and is in the down trend.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 20, 2018

Large company, 6 billion dollar market cap. Year over year earnings are up 100% and next year earnings estimates have been revised upwards in the last 90 days. (Analysts’ price target is 87.86$)

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
February 20, 2018

Large company, 6 billion dollar market cap. Year over year earnings are up 100% and next year earnings estimates have been revised upwards in the last 90 days. (Analysts’ price target is 87.86$)

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 22, 2017

This has very strong seasonality. Historically it has done very well from approximately October right through until approximately February of each year. That doesn't work all the time. In 2016, we started to get into squabbles with the US on tariffs, etc. His chart shows it is working again this year. On a seasonal basis, it’s time to be an owner right through until the end of February. Technically it’s in a trading range right now. A move above its resistance at around $80 would be a very positive indication that seasonality will continue right through until about the end of February.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
December 22, 2017

This has very strong seasonality. Historically it has done very well from approximately October right through until approximately February of each year. That doesn't work all the time. In 2016, we started to get into squabbles with the US on tariffs, etc. His chart shows it is working again this year. On a seasonal basis, it’s time to be an owner right through until the end of February. Technically it’s in a trading range right now. A move above its resistance at around $80 would be a very positive indication that seasonality will continue right through until about the end of February.

WATCH
WATCH
November 30, 2017

(Market Call Minute) Be careful. It trades at 2.5 times book. You should buy it when there is blood in the streets. They are 50% above the 20 year average.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
November 30, 2017

(Market Call Minute) Be careful. It trades at 2.5 times book. You should buy it when there is blood in the streets. They are 50% above the 20 year average.

BUY
BUY
October 18, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) He really likes the home building industry in the US, and the materials that go into home building.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
October 18, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) He really likes the home building industry in the US, and the materials that go into home building.

WATCH
WATCH
October 16, 2017

It is experiencing a cup and handle, or a rounded bottom. It is a smooth transition from a downward transition to an uptrend. The most important part is that it was a rounded approach. There is resistance at this point. If it gets thought it, it looks pretty good.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
October 16, 2017

It is experiencing a cup and handle, or a rounded bottom. It is a smooth transition from a downward transition to an uptrend. The most important part is that it was a rounded approach. There is resistance at this point. If it gets thought it, it looks pretty good.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 7, 2017

It is the biggest in Canada and the second biggest in the US after Weyerhaeuser (WY-N). Over the years they now have over 43% of their productive assets in the US. They have a 6.7 price to cash flow ratio and a great balance sheet. As the forth largest city in the US gets rebuilt they will be needed. (Analysts’ target: $70.50).

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
September 7, 2017

It is the biggest in Canada and the second biggest in the US after Weyerhaeuser (WY-N). Over the years they now have over 43% of their productive assets in the US. They have a 6.7 price to cash flow ratio and a great balance sheet. As the forth largest city in the US gets rebuilt they will be needed. (Analysts’ target: $70.50).

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 28, 2017

Lumber stocks have had a good run. SPF prices have gone to $375, which is absolutely insane. Most analysts are factoring in $300 lumber prices, so a $375 lumber price means there is going to be a lot of upward revision which would potentially be positive for this company. He has avoided the space because of the uncertainty around the softwood lumber agreement. It is hard to get a handle on how that is going to shake out, especially with the Trump administration. There is also the potential of some negative backlash from the border adjustment tax. Until there is clarity, this is a space he wants to avoid for the time being. This is a very good company. The largest lumber producer in North America and have very good assets. However, their assets are primarily located in Canada. You could consider Interfor (IFP-T) whose majority of sawmills are in the US and they sell domestically. It could also be a take-out candidate given its size and its ideal positioning in the US south east.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
February 28, 2017

Lumber stocks have had a good run. SPF prices have gone to $375, which is absolutely insane. Most analysts are factoring in $300 lumber prices, so a $375 lumber price means there is going to be a lot of upward revision which would potentially be positive for this company. He has avoided the space because of the uncertainty around the softwood lumber agreement. It is hard to get a handle on how that is going to shake out, especially with the Trump administration. There is also the potential of some negative backlash from the border adjustment tax. Until there is clarity, this is a space he wants to avoid for the time being. This is a very good company. The largest lumber producer in North America and have very good assets. However, their assets are primarily located in Canada. You could consider Interfor (IFP-T) whose majority of sawmills are in the US and they sell domestically. It could also be a take-out candidate given its size and its ideal positioning in the US south east.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 23, 2016

Still a little concerned on software lumber. When Donald Trump takes office, he thinks he is looking to negate a couple of trade deals, and this is probably the easiest one to step on.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
December 23, 2016

Still a little concerned on software lumber. When Donald Trump takes office, he thinks he is looking to negate a couple of trade deals, and this is probably the easiest one to step on.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 14, 2016

This has exceptional seasonality in a different way, both on the upside from the middle of October until April, and the downside from April until October. This year has been a little different because of what is happening with the softwood lumber agreement. The agreement is up in the air and we don’t know what is going to happen. He would want to see the results of the agreement before making any recommendation.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
October 14, 2016

This has exceptional seasonality in a different way, both on the upside from the middle of October until April, and the downside from April until October. This year has been a little different because of what is happening with the softwood lumber agreement. The agreement is up in the air and we don’t know what is going to happen. He would want to see the results of the agreement before making any recommendation.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 27, 2016

Had owned this as a play on US housing, until he discovered just how much of the US housing is not wood, but concrete. A high-quality company, so if you are going to make that bet, it is probably the best pick. There is an ongoing softwood lumber issue which has some implications, and generates some uncertainty. Also, the US has gotten really good at growing their own timber and meeting the demands themselves.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
September 27, 2016

Had owned this as a play on US housing, until he discovered just how much of the US housing is not wood, but concrete. A high-quality company, so if you are going to make that bet, it is probably the best pick. There is an ongoing softwood lumber issue which has some implications, and generates some uncertainty. Also, the US has gotten really good at growing their own timber and meeting the demands themselves.

HOLD
HOLD
July 22, 2016

He is a little concerned on lumber stocks. It looks again like they are not getting a deal with the US on softwood. That’s a bit of a problem. Housing starts in the US looks fine, and the Cdn$ down is more of a positive. They just reported, and had bad numbers, but it wasn’t on the lumber side, it was more on the pulp operations.

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He is a little concerned on lumber stocks. It looks again like they are not getting a deal with the US on softwood. That’s a bit of a problem. Housing starts in the US looks fine, and the Cdn$ down is more of a positive. They just reported, and had bad numbers, but it wasn’t on the lumber side, it was more on the pulp operations.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 15, 2016

He likes timber stocks. Doesn’t own this, but it is certainly showing up on his screens at these levels. Housing cycles tend to be very long, and we have had a very good one since 2008. This stock is worth a good look at these prices.

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He likes timber stocks. Doesn’t own this, but it is certainly showing up on his screens at these levels. Housing cycles tend to be very long, and we have had a very good one since 2008. This stock is worth a good look at these prices.

WAIT
WAIT
July 11, 2016

Forest products in Canada have double seasonality. From early March to beginning of October they move lower. Buy then.

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Forest products in Canada have double seasonality. From early March to beginning of October they move lower. Buy then.

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