West Fraser Timber

WFT-T

TSE:WFT

57.67
0.70 (1.20%)
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. is a Canadian forestry company based in Quesnel, British Columbia. West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. is a member of the Forest Products Association of Canada.
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Analysis and Opinions about WFT-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY
BUY
December 30, 2019
A great company and there has been some recent volatility from the back off on the Canfor opportunity. He likes the space here. There was a huge run-up on the US home-builders space. The fundamentals are tightening and it could be a good year for this company.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
December 30, 2019
A great company and there has been some recent volatility from the back off on the Canfor opportunity. He likes the space here. There was a huge run-up on the US home-builders space. The fundamentals are tightening and it could be a good year for this company.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 24, 2019
Has broken out, showing higher highs since mid-2019. Like oil sticks, lumber is poised to rise as the economy accelerates. The sweet spot lies ahead. He likes this. Good reward/risk. (Analysts’ price target is $64.29)
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
December 24, 2019
Has broken out, showing higher highs since mid-2019. Like oil sticks, lumber is poised to rise as the economy accelerates. The sweet spot lies ahead. He likes this. Good reward/risk. (Analysts’ price target is $64.29)
BUY
BUY
November 19, 2019
They had a huge run and is now on the low part of a head and shoulders. Buy it now, which is in an interesting pocket.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
November 19, 2019
They had a huge run and is now on the low part of a head and shoulders. Buy it now, which is in an interesting pocket.
BUY
BUY
November 18, 2019
2011-12, 2015-16 and late-2018 were corrections. After each one, lumber rallies. Lumber is his favourite commodity. Short-term expect weakness, will pick up later. WFT is doing this, picking up, lately, breaking its 2019 downtrend. Any lumber name is timely and good to buy now. Lumber will do well going forward.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
November 18, 2019
2011-12, 2015-16 and late-2018 were corrections. After each one, lumber rallies. Lumber is his favourite commodity. Short-term expect weakness, will pick up later. WFT is doing this, picking up, lately, breaking its 2019 downtrend. Any lumber name is timely and good to buy now. Lumber will do well going forward.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 8, 2019
(A Top Pick Nov 05/18, Down 18%) He guessed it would go to $80 and it did for a moment. The turnaround in the housing market looked good at the time he recommended it. He did buy it and took a small loss. A good trading stock but wouldn’t be buying it right now.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
November 8, 2019
(A Top Pick Nov 05/18, Down 18%) He guessed it would go to $80 and it did for a moment. The turnaround in the housing market looked good at the time he recommended it. He did buy it and took a small loss. A good trading stock but wouldn’t be buying it right now.
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
September 25, 2019

Mills are closing in BC, leaving more operations in the US. Housing there is stabilizing and lumber prices have perked up. If you believe we are not headed to recession, the stock could rebound. Remember, these are cyclical stocks -- not long term holds.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
September 25, 2019

Mills are closing in BC, leaving more operations in the US. Housing there is stabilizing and lumber prices have perked up. If you believe we are not headed to recession, the stock could rebound. Remember, these are cyclical stocks -- not long term holds.

John Kim

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Price
$54.700
Owned
Unknown
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
September 18, 2019
His first job as an analyst was in forestry products. What he learned was that this is a very cyclical business. You want to buy them when their earnings are down and the their PE looks high -- but not on a price to book level. He has not seen enough of an extreme to enter just yet. Book value is $40. He would be patient and look to buy closer to this level.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
September 18, 2019
His first job as an analyst was in forestry products. What he learned was that this is a very cyclical business. You want to buy them when their earnings are down and the their PE looks high -- but not on a price to book level. He has not seen enough of an extreme to enter just yet. Book value is $40. He would be patient and look to buy closer to this level.
WAIT
WAIT
June 18, 2019
He was recommending lumber in early 2019 as a good commodity to invest. Over the last week there is volume coming back in and if it can trade back above $65-$70 he would be back in. There is good value here, but he would wait for the breakout. Yield 1.3%
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He was recommending lumber in early 2019 as a good commodity to invest. Over the last week there is volume coming back in and if it can trade back above $65-$70 he would be back in. There is good value here, but he would wait for the breakout. Yield 1.3%
BUY
BUY
June 17, 2019
Canadian Forestry stocks. Here is an industry that is in a bit of oversupply. Curtailing production should be good in the short term. We are seeing all of these stocks selling towards their lows rather than highs. CFF is selling at a fraction of the book value. They have had negative earnings of late. WFT-T is 1.5 times book. IFP-T is at book value but has a much higher multiple. WEF-T is trading in the middle of the previous two but with a much more significant yield, possibly not as secure. They all have reasonable assets. They are a decent value play and could stand to do well if we get a building resurgence. You have to be patient.
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Canadian Forestry stocks. Here is an industry that is in a bit of oversupply. Curtailing production should be good in the short term. We are seeing all of these stocks selling towards their lows rather than highs. CFF is selling at a fraction of the book value. They have had negative earnings of late. WFT-T is 1.5 times book. IFP-T is at book value but has a much higher multiple. WEF-T is trading in the middle of the previous two but with a much more significant yield, possibly not as secure. They all have reasonable assets. They are a decent value play and could stand to do well if we get a building resurgence. You have to be patient.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 30, 2019
Forestry is out of favour. WFT will be victim to commodity price swings. But US housing will rebound this spring and will benefit lumber stocks.
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Forestry is out of favour. WFT will be victim to commodity price swings. But US housing will rebound this spring and will benefit lumber stocks.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 23, 2019
West Fraser vs. Canfor He owns neither, as lumber prices are weak and not rebounding in the spring when they usually do. They're trading near book value. The upcoming quarter will be weak for lumber. Be cautious here, but start doing your homework on them.
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West Fraser vs. Canfor He owns neither, as lumber prices are weak and not rebounding in the spring when they usually do. They're trading near book value. The upcoming quarter will be weak for lumber. Be cautious here, but start doing your homework on them.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
February 21, 2019
He is very constructive on lumber and it is his favourite commodity. We saw a double bottom and a pull back. A longer term base is developing. The next 4 year cycle is developing and he sees significant upside and he buys on weakness.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
February 21, 2019
He is very constructive on lumber and it is his favourite commodity. We saw a double bottom and a pull back. A longer term base is developing. The next 4 year cycle is developing and he sees significant upside and he buys on weakness.
WAIT
WAIT
February 8, 2019
Lumber's seasonality is between early-November and early-March, before people actually buy their homes. Lumber prices are starting to rise from a serious low (and bad year), but they're starting to come back. WFT had a declining trend based on the falling lumber price, but peer Canfor is cutting output which may benefit EFT. He's concerned it touching its 200-day moving average and declining today. Support at $70, its 50-day moving average. If it holds less level, WFT could see higher highs.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
February 8, 2019
Lumber's seasonality is between early-November and early-March, before people actually buy their homes. Lumber prices are starting to rise from a serious low (and bad year), but they're starting to come back. WFT had a declining trend based on the falling lumber price, but peer Canfor is cutting output which may benefit EFT. He's concerned it touching its 200-day moving average and declining today. Support at $70, its 50-day moving average. If it holds less level, WFT could see higher highs.
WATCH
WATCH
January 24, 2019
Basing after a downtrend. If it breaks $75 it could be very bullish. It is looking constructive.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
January 24, 2019
Basing after a downtrend. If it breaks $75 it could be very bullish. It is looking constructive.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 16, 2019
(A Top Pick Feb 20/18, Down 18%) Despite a large increase in the price of lumber and strand board, the stock fell. He sold it in July. An analyst thinks lumber stocks are showing good technical signals. If housing rebounds this stock would benefit significantly. He is not convinced yet.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
January 16, 2019
(A Top Pick Feb 20/18, Down 18%) Despite a large increase in the price of lumber and strand board, the stock fell. He sold it in July. An analyst thinks lumber stocks are showing good technical signals. If housing rebounds this stock would benefit significantly. He is not convinced yet.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 31, 2018
WFT-T vs. IFP-T. He is still cautious on lumber stocks. We have seen the peak in US housing. Canadian lumber stocks do better with the Canadian dollar down. IFP-T is a better play because at least 50% of the lumber is out of the US. There is probably going to be a bit of a cloud over the sector for some time.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
December 31, 2018
WFT-T vs. IFP-T. He is still cautious on lumber stocks. We have seen the peak in US housing. Canadian lumber stocks do better with the Canadian dollar down. IFP-T is a better play because at least 50% of the lumber is out of the US. There is probably going to be a bit of a cloud over the sector for some time.
SELL
SELL
December 20, 2018
Timber has been a very volatile sector this year. A highly cyclicaly business. Avoid this sector, even though it's been oversold. Sell when this rallies.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
December 20, 2018
Timber has been a very volatile sector this year. A highly cyclicaly business. Avoid this sector, even though it's been oversold. Sell when this rallies.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 21, 2018
(A Top Pick Sep 07/17, Up 15%) This is all related to US housing. 40 – 45% of wood demand goes into repairs and renovations. Their product also goes to China and Japan. About 2/3’s of their operations come from the US. They have a good balance sheet. He expects to see US housing industry pick up in the spring.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
November 21, 2018
(A Top Pick Sep 07/17, Up 15%) This is all related to US housing. 40 – 45% of wood demand goes into repairs and renovations. Their product also goes to China and Japan. About 2/3’s of their operations come from the US. They have a good balance sheet. He expects to see US housing industry pick up in the spring.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 5, 2018

He looks for trend reversals. He thinks this one might pull back a dollar of two from here before buying. He is looking to buy at $70 or below. There is a potential for $80 next January or February and he has an exit point of $67. It found good volume at its bottom. (Analysts’ price target is $84.50)

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
November 5, 2018

He looks for trend reversals. He thinks this one might pull back a dollar of two from here before buying. He is looking to buy at $70 or below. There is a potential for $80 next January or February and he has an exit point of $67. It found good volume at its bottom. (Analysts’ price target is $84.50)

WAIT
WAIT
November 1, 2018
Over the last little while lumber stocks have begun to deteriorate. He removed it from his watch list earlier. It is trying to put in a short term low and then he sees a short term bounce. There will be heavy choppiness over the next little while.
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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
November 1, 2018
Over the last little while lumber stocks have begun to deteriorate. He removed it from his watch list earlier. It is trying to put in a short term low and then he sees a short term bounce. There will be heavy choppiness over the next little while.
WATCH
WATCH
October 12, 2018

Lumber stocks and home builders in the US have a stock chart like this one – plunging down to the right. At these levels, the valuations are suggesting a depression is coming – he does not believe in this. His downside target is $66, so based on his model, it is a buy if the market can find a bottom soon.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
October 12, 2018

Lumber stocks and home builders in the US have a stock chart like this one – plunging down to the right. At these levels, the valuations are suggesting a depression is coming – he does not believe in this. His downside target is $66, so based on his model, it is a buy if the market can find a bottom soon.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 14, 2018

It peaked in early June and fell to $80, breaking a strong 19-month trend. The early-August low fell along with commodoties as a whole. It'll likely continue to fall.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
September 14, 2018

It peaked in early June and fell to $80, breaking a strong 19-month trend. The early-August low fell along with commodoties as a whole. It'll likely continue to fall.

BUY
BUY
September 5, 2018

Forest stocks have come off due to U.S. trade issues under Trump, which has added US$7,000 to the cost of a US house. This is a good time to buy this.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
September 5, 2018

Forest stocks have come off due to U.S. trade issues under Trump, which has added US$7,000 to the cost of a US house. This is a good time to buy this.

Alex Ruus

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Price
$87.600
Owned
Unknown
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 22, 2018

With all the lumber tariffs, he wouldn't get into this space. However, there's been a lot of home building that lumber companies have enjoyed. Current valuations are high. If there was a market setback, this space would be vulnerable. The BC fires have spiked the stock price, but the fires can eat into the supply areas.

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With all the lumber tariffs, he wouldn't get into this space. However, there's been a lot of home building that lumber companies have enjoyed. Current valuations are high. If there was a market setback, this space would be vulnerable. The BC fires have spiked the stock price, but the fires can eat into the supply areas.

HOLD
HOLD
August 3, 2018

Earnings recently were very positive. Unfortunately lumber prices have recently collapsed. It is a cyclical company, but is a very good one. With the strength of the US and Canadian economies, he thinks this is one of the best in the sector, and would continue to hold it for the next year.

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Earnings recently were very positive. Unfortunately lumber prices have recently collapsed. It is a cyclical company, but is a very good one. With the strength of the US and Canadian economies, he thinks this is one of the best in the sector, and would continue to hold it for the next year.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 24, 2018

It's not the kind of company he invests in. It's a great Canadian resource play and has done well, but the issues are Trump's tariffs on Canadian lumber and disappointing U.S. housing starts.

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It's not the kind of company he invests in. It's a great Canadian resource play and has done well, but the issues are Trump's tariffs on Canadian lumber and disappointing U.S. housing starts.

BUY
BUY
June 25, 2018

It's testing support levels where it's been before and volumes are lifting--both positives. The low-80s is support. The consolidation is healthy.

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It's testing support levels where it's been before and volumes are lifting--both positives. The low-80s is support. The consolidation is healthy.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 19, 2018

Merger with Canfor? Cheap, well-run, but there’s softwood lumber deal risk. Market has already reacted to the softwood deal. They’ve heard M&A speculation, but unlikely with Canfor. Not a lot of M&A in public companies, instead, companies just buy smaller US mills. Outlook very strong, and upcoming earnings should be good, especially given strong lumber prices.

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Merger with Canfor? Cheap, well-run, but there’s softwood lumber deal risk. Market has already reacted to the softwood deal. They’ve heard M&A speculation, but unlikely with Canfor. Not a lot of M&A in public companies, instead, companies just buy smaller US mills. Outlook very strong, and upcoming earnings should be good, especially given strong lumber prices.

HOLD
HOLD
April 19, 2018

There are restrictions on Canadian exports of lumber. Lumber futures just hit a record high. Party of it has to do with demand. Never short anything just as it is going up even if the valuation makes no sense. Wait for it to peak and is in the down trend.

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There are restrictions on Canadian exports of lumber. Lumber futures just hit a record high. Party of it has to do with demand. Never short anything just as it is going up even if the valuation makes no sense. Wait for it to peak and is in the down trend.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 20, 2018

Large company, 6 billion dollar market cap. Year over year earnings are up 100% and next year earnings estimates have been revised upwards in the last 90 days. (Analysts’ price target is 87.86$)

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
February 20, 2018

Large company, 6 billion dollar market cap. Year over year earnings are up 100% and next year earnings estimates have been revised upwards in the last 90 days. (Analysts’ price target is 87.86$)

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 22, 2017

This has very strong seasonality. Historically it has done very well from approximately October right through until approximately February of each year. That doesn't work all the time. In 2016, we started to get into squabbles with the US on tariffs, etc. His chart shows it is working again this year. On a seasonal basis, it’s time to be an owner right through until the end of February. Technically it’s in a trading range right now. A move above its resistance at around $80 would be a very positive indication that seasonality will continue right through until about the end of February.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
December 22, 2017

This has very strong seasonality. Historically it has done very well from approximately October right through until approximately February of each year. That doesn't work all the time. In 2016, we started to get into squabbles with the US on tariffs, etc. His chart shows it is working again this year. On a seasonal basis, it’s time to be an owner right through until the end of February. Technically it’s in a trading range right now. A move above its resistance at around $80 would be a very positive indication that seasonality will continue right through until about the end of February.

WATCH
WATCH
November 30, 2017

(Market Call Minute) Be careful. It trades at 2.5 times book. You should buy it when there is blood in the streets. They are 50% above the 20 year average.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
November 30, 2017

(Market Call Minute) Be careful. It trades at 2.5 times book. You should buy it when there is blood in the streets. They are 50% above the 20 year average.

BUY
BUY
October 18, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) He really likes the home building industry in the US, and the materials that go into home building.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
October 18, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) He really likes the home building industry in the US, and the materials that go into home building.

WATCH
WATCH
October 16, 2017

It is experiencing a cup and handle, or a rounded bottom. It is a smooth transition from a downward transition to an uptrend. The most important part is that it was a rounded approach. There is resistance at this point. If it gets thought it, it looks pretty good.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
October 16, 2017

It is experiencing a cup and handle, or a rounded bottom. It is a smooth transition from a downward transition to an uptrend. The most important part is that it was a rounded approach. There is resistance at this point. If it gets thought it, it looks pretty good.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 7, 2017

It is the biggest in Canada and the second biggest in the US after Weyerhaeuser (WY-N). Over the years they now have over 43% of their productive assets in the US. They have a 6.7 price to cash flow ratio and a great balance sheet. As the forth largest city in the US gets rebuilt they will be needed. (Analysts’ target: $70.50).

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
September 7, 2017

It is the biggest in Canada and the second biggest in the US after Weyerhaeuser (WY-N). Over the years they now have over 43% of their productive assets in the US. They have a 6.7 price to cash flow ratio and a great balance sheet. As the forth largest city in the US gets rebuilt they will be needed. (Analysts’ target: $70.50).

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 28, 2017

Lumber stocks have had a good run. SPF prices have gone to $375, which is absolutely insane. Most analysts are factoring in $300 lumber prices, so a $375 lumber price means there is going to be a lot of upward revision which would potentially be positive for this company. He has avoided the space because of the uncertainty around the softwood lumber agreement. It is hard to get a handle on how that is going to shake out, especially with the Trump administration. There is also the potential of some negative backlash from the border adjustment tax. Until there is clarity, this is a space he wants to avoid for the time being. This is a very good company. The largest lumber producer in North America and have very good assets. However, their assets are primarily located in Canada. You could consider Interfor (IFP-T) whose majority of sawmills are in the US and they sell domestically. It could also be a take-out candidate given its size and its ideal positioning in the US south east.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
February 28, 2017

Lumber stocks have had a good run. SPF prices have gone to $375, which is absolutely insane. Most analysts are factoring in $300 lumber prices, so a $375 lumber price means there is going to be a lot of upward revision which would potentially be positive for this company. He has avoided the space because of the uncertainty around the softwood lumber agreement. It is hard to get a handle on how that is going to shake out, especially with the Trump administration. There is also the potential of some negative backlash from the border adjustment tax. Until there is clarity, this is a space he wants to avoid for the time being. This is a very good company. The largest lumber producer in North America and have very good assets. However, their assets are primarily located in Canada. You could consider Interfor (IFP-T) whose majority of sawmills are in the US and they sell domestically. It could also be a take-out candidate given its size and its ideal positioning in the US south east.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 23, 2016

Still a little concerned on software lumber. When Donald Trump takes office, he thinks he is looking to negate a couple of trade deals, and this is probably the easiest one to step on.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
December 23, 2016

Still a little concerned on software lumber. When Donald Trump takes office, he thinks he is looking to negate a couple of trade deals, and this is probably the easiest one to step on.

COMMENT
COMMENT
October 14, 2016

This has exceptional seasonality in a different way, both on the upside from the middle of October until April, and the downside from April until October. This year has been a little different because of what is happening with the softwood lumber agreement. The agreement is up in the air and we don’t know what is going to happen. He would want to see the results of the agreement before making any recommendation.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
October 14, 2016

This has exceptional seasonality in a different way, both on the upside from the middle of October until April, and the downside from April until October. This year has been a little different because of what is happening with the softwood lumber agreement. The agreement is up in the air and we don’t know what is going to happen. He would want to see the results of the agreement before making any recommendation.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 27, 2016

Had owned this as a play on US housing, until he discovered just how much of the US housing is not wood, but concrete. A high-quality company, so if you are going to make that bet, it is probably the best pick. There is an ongoing softwood lumber issue which has some implications, and generates some uncertainty. Also, the US has gotten really good at growing their own timber and meeting the demands themselves.

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West Fraser Timber (WFT-T)
September 27, 2016

Had owned this as a play on US housing, until he discovered just how much of the US housing is not wood, but concrete. A high-quality company, so if you are going to make that bet, it is probably the best pick. There is an ongoing softwood lumber issue which has some implications, and generates some uncertainty. Also, the US has gotten really good at growing their own timber and meeting the demands themselves.

HOLD
HOLD
July 22, 2016

He is a little concerned on lumber stocks. It looks again like they are not getting a deal with the US on softwood. That’s a bit of a problem. Housing starts in the US looks fine, and the Cdn$ down is more of a positive. They just reported, and had bad numbers, but it wasn’t on the lumber side, it was more on the pulp operations.

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He is a little concerned on lumber stocks. It looks again like they are not getting a deal with the US on softwood. That’s a bit of a problem. Housing starts in the US looks fine, and the Cdn$ down is more of a positive. They just reported, and had bad numbers, but it wasn’t on the lumber side, it was more on the pulp operations.

COMMENT