United Parcel Services

UPS-N

NYSE:UPS

96.72
0.42 (0.44%)
United Parcel Service is a package delivery company and a provider of supply chain management solutions.
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Analysis and Opinions about UPS-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 14, 2018

(A Top Pick Sept 27/17, up 1%). The largest small parcel company in the world. Amazon will not crush them. They have large economies of scale. Amazon needs UPS and FedEx. Is cheap at 14X next year’s earnings and thinks it is going higher.

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(A Top Pick Sept 27/17, up 1%). The largest small parcel company in the world. Amazon will not crush them. They have large economies of scale. Amazon needs UPS and FedEx. Is cheap at 14X next year’s earnings and thinks it is going higher.

PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
February 23, 2018

He believes the entry of Amazon into this space is creating concern. He would be a buyer here or on further weakness after the current fears subside.

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He believes the entry of Amazon into this space is creating concern. He would be a buyer here or on further weakness after the current fears subside.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 16, 2018

He has viewed this a good indicator of the economy – especially consumer goods. Amazon has decided UPS could not meet peak delivery demand and has decided to invest in their own distribution network. They will still survive.

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He has viewed this a good indicator of the economy – especially consumer goods. Amazon has decided UPS could not meet peak delivery demand and has decided to invest in their own distribution network. They will still survive.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 6, 2018

Involved with the disruption of buying at home rather than in the store. He prefers FedEx, likes its exposure to Europe. UPS exposure to Europe is about 16% whereas FedEx was around 5% before acquiring TNT, increasing exposure by about 12%, putting them neck and neck with UPS. Fedex and UPS have both had a big runup in prices. He likes the FedEx balance sheet better. Neither company pays much of a dividend. Analysts consensus for the UPS stock is around $113. (Analysts' price target $129).

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Involved with the disruption of buying at home rather than in the store. He prefers FedEx, likes its exposure to Europe. UPS exposure to Europe is about 16% whereas FedEx was around 5% before acquiring TNT, increasing exposure by about 12%, putting them neck and neck with UPS. Fedex and UPS have both had a big runup in prices. He likes the FedEx balance sheet better. Neither company pays much of a dividend. Analysts consensus for the UPS stock is around $113. (Analysts' price target $129).

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 16, 2018

The world's largest package document/delivery company. A clear beneficiary of what is happening with everybody's purchasing behaviour. Produces a lot of free cash flow. Dividend yield 2.5%. (Analysts' price target is $130.)

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The world's largest package document/delivery company. A clear beneficiary of what is happening with everybody's purchasing behaviour. Produces a lot of free cash flow. Dividend yield 2.5%. (Analysts' price target is $130.)

BUY
BUY
January 9, 2018

Very attractive. It is riding the trend of e-commerce. Not just a courier company, they are a "next day" logistics company. He would have no trouble owning this for the long-term.

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Very attractive. It is riding the trend of e-commerce. Not just a courier company, they are a "next day" logistics company. He would have no trouble owning this for the long-term.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 3, 2018

Has avoided this, but can see why people are interested. There is the view that the post office is going to have to raise package delivery prices. However, the discussion that is important is the complete change in logistics Amazon has created. Feels this and Federal Express are organized around the idea of hubs and moving distribution through central hubs. Amazon is arranged completely differently, building warehouses in large cities. He sees incentives for retailers going directly to consumers to try to take the line away from companies, and try to turn it into a local P&D business.

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Has avoided this, but can see why people are interested. There is the view that the post office is going to have to raise package delivery prices. However, the discussion that is important is the complete change in logistics Amazon has created. Feels this and Federal Express are organized around the idea of hubs and moving distribution through central hubs. Amazon is arranged completely differently, building warehouses in large cities. He sees incentives for retailers going directly to consumers to try to take the line away from companies, and try to turn it into a local P&D business.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 19, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 27/17 Down 1%.) There is a big question mark around the future of delivery. Everybody is scared of Amazon. From a seasonal perspective, UPS doesn’t do well at this time. The seasonal trade finished on December 10th and since has pull back a little bit. From now until March it tends to be a poor performer. It’s better in fall time. This is not the time to be in UPS.

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(A Top Pick Oct 27/17 Down 1%.) There is a big question mark around the future of delivery. Everybody is scared of Amazon. From a seasonal perspective, UPS doesn’t do well at this time. The seasonal trade finished on December 10th and since has pull back a little bit. From now until March it tends to be a poor performer. It’s better in fall time. This is not the time to be in UPS.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 14, 2017

This is their busy time. It is not as compelling now. Their peak date is in a few days. Their seasonal hiring may be a little bit less this year. They get surges and try to deal with it by charging higher rates. It could lead to higher costs also. Between now and Christmas if there is no bad weather the company could do well. It all has to do with how they deal with the surge in business. At some point Ecommerce growth will slow. At the current valuation it is not as compelling as at lower levels.

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This is their busy time. It is not as compelling now. Their peak date is in a few days. Their seasonal hiring may be a little bit less this year. They get surges and try to deal with it by charging higher rates. It could lead to higher costs also. Between now and Christmas if there is no bad weather the company could do well. It all has to do with how they deal with the surge in business. At some point Ecommerce growth will slow. At the current valuation it is not as compelling as at lower levels.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 5, 2017

The balance sheet is taking a sort of a series of steps downwards. That is probably due to the idiots (company?) buying back their own stocks. Looking at the earnings forecasts and FMV, it has been flat lining since they began buying back stock. Because of this, the stock has actually created extra value. It is very expensive, trading at 30X its BV. The FMV is $82 which gives you a 33% downside risk from here. He would be very cautious about this company.

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The balance sheet is taking a sort of a series of steps downwards. That is probably due to the idiots (company?) buying back their own stocks. Looking at the earnings forecasts and FMV, it has been flat lining since they began buying back stock. Because of this, the stock has actually created extra value. It is very expensive, trading at 30X its BV. The FMV is $82 which gives you a 33% downside risk from here. He would be very cautious about this company.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 16, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 21/17. Up 8%.) Given the advent of e-retailing there are more package deliveries going on. Amazon has been the high profile player in e-commerce, but he would argue that the safer players would be companies like this and FedEx. Trading at 16X 2018 earnings with a 3% dividend yield that gets increased every year.

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(A Top Pick Feb 21/17. Up 8%.) Given the advent of e-retailing there are more package deliveries going on. Amazon has been the high profile player in e-commerce, but he would argue that the safer players would be companies like this and FedEx. Trading at 16X 2018 earnings with a 3% dividend yield that gets increased every year.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 27, 2017

There is a really strong seasonal period for this company. Since 2000 to 2016 on average, it has underperformed the S&P 500 annually. However, in the small window from Oct 10 to Dec 8, it has averaged 8% and outperformed the S&P 500 88% of the time. You want to be in it before everybody else gets in, so you get in early. If you are into Short Selling, then you want to Short this from Dec 9 to March 1. Dividend yield of 2.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $125.)

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There is a really strong seasonal period for this company. Since 2000 to 2016 on average, it has underperformed the S&P 500 annually. However, in the small window from Oct 10 to Dec 8, it has averaged 8% and outperformed the S&P 500 88% of the time. You want to be in it before everybody else gets in, so you get in early. If you are into Short Selling, then you want to Short this from Dec 9 to March 1. Dividend yield of 2.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $125.)

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 17, 2017

This hits all the boxes. It is expensive. Closed at $118.34, and his model price is $57.25, 51% higher than its model price. He would be a buyer on any pullback.

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This hits all the boxes. It is expensive. Closed at $118.34, and his model price is $57.25, 51% higher than its model price. He would be a buyer on any pullback.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 27, 2017

World’s largest package delivery company. Trading at about 9X-10X EV to EBITDA. Trading at 17-18 times earnings for a dominant position, and it is going higher. Dividend yield of 2.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $117.)

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World’s largest package delivery company. Trading at about 9X-10X EV to EBITDA. Trading at 17-18 times earnings for a dominant position, and it is going higher. Dividend yield of 2.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $117.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 9, 2017

This is in the industrial space, and with the economy moving along and getting stronger, it will be a name that will probably do well going forward. Trading at around 18X earnings with about a 9% growth rate, so it is not too cheap at this point. It has dropped below its 200-day moving average, which concerns him a little.

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This is in the industrial space, and with the economy moving along and getting stronger, it will be a name that will probably do well going forward. Trading at around 18X earnings with about a 9% growth rate, so it is not too cheap at this point. It has dropped below its 200-day moving average, which concerns him a little.

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