United Parcel Services

UPS-N

NYSE:UPS

99.71
0.01 (0.01%)
United Parcel Service is a package delivery company and a provider of supply chain management solutions.
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Analysis and Opinions about UPS-N

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 25, 2020

FDX-N vs. UPS-N. There was a split between FDX-N and AMZN-Q so now investors are favouring UPS-N. Now the US postal service is looking to increase its service to Sunday deliveries. He would still prefer UPS-N over FDX-N.

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FDX-N vs. UPS-N. There was a split between FDX-N and AMZN-Q so now investors are favouring UPS-N. Now the US postal service is looking to increase its service to Sunday deliveries. He would still prefer UPS-N over FDX-N.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 21, 2020

He likes the UPS name. There are really only two big players in the space, them and FedEx. He prefers FedEx and owns that one. The problem is that there is a growing need for capital to move towards same-day delivery. He thinks FedEx did a smart thing pushing back on Amazon pricing terms and they have reduced their exposure to them to only 1% of revenues.

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He likes the UPS name. There are really only two big players in the space, them and FedEx. He prefers FedEx and owns that one. The problem is that there is a growing need for capital to move towards same-day delivery. He thinks FedEx did a smart thing pushing back on Amazon pricing terms and they have reduced their exposure to them to only 1% of revenues.

WATCH
WATCH
February 11, 2020

FedEx has more problems, namely absorbing a big European acquisition of TNT Express, but both are impacted by Amazon's move into overnight delivery and the trade war. He won't buy them, but prices are starting to look attractive. Wants to see a turnaround before buying either.

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FedEx has more problems, namely absorbing a big European acquisition of TNT Express, but both are impacted by Amazon's move into overnight delivery and the trade war. He won't buy them, but prices are starting to look attractive. Wants to see a turnaround before buying either.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
December 5, 2019
He would be a buyer here because it is one of the top 100 S&P. His model price is $144.21 or a 24% upside.
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He would be a buyer here because it is one of the top 100 S&P. His model price is $144.21 or a 24% upside.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 3, 2019
UPS-N had some interesting news with the FFA approval of their drone delivery business. FDX-N is a few PE multiple points cheaper. UPS has had a positive trend change. FDX has been pulling back again. He prefers UPS if you had to. But neither one is really doing well. Global growth is the most important indicator for both companies and it is not favourable.
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UPS-N had some interesting news with the FFA approval of their drone delivery business. FDX-N is a few PE multiple points cheaper. UPS has had a positive trend change. FDX has been pulling back again. He prefers UPS if you had to. But neither one is really doing well. Global growth is the most important indicator for both companies and it is not favourable.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 3, 2019
UPS vs. Fedex Fedex got clobbered based on past earnings, so they've diverged from UPS. Positive seasonality all the way to Thanksgiving. UPS has a trend of higher highs, higher lows, but Fedex is the reverse. He'd stay away from all transportation altogether because shipping metrics on the economy are pathetic. Better places to be.
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UPS vs. Fedex Fedex got clobbered based on past earnings, so they've diverged from UPS. Positive seasonality all the way to Thanksgiving. UPS has a trend of higher highs, higher lows, but Fedex is the reverse. He'd stay away from all transportation altogether because shipping metrics on the economy are pathetic. Better places to be.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 26, 2019

(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Down 5%) Has sold some of this. UPS is more resilient than FedEx. Long-term it's a great play on e-commerce--more stuff is getting delivered. It's a short-term trade now--global trade is a little off--but a long-term hold. It's the best company in this industry. Pays over a 3% dividend yield.

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(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Down 5%) Has sold some of this. UPS is more resilient than FedEx. Long-term it's a great play on e-commerce--more stuff is getting delivered. It's a short-term trade now--global trade is a little off--but a long-term hold. It's the best company in this industry. Pays over a 3% dividend yield.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 21, 2019

Would sell UPS and buy Fedex. Fedex is better managing headwinds from Amazon. They also have more areas that Amazon won' tackle. Wouldn't invest in either due to high cost in order to compete. Their current infrastructure is not ready to compete in the e-commerce world, and will eat up their free cashflow.

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Would sell UPS and buy Fedex. Fedex is better managing headwinds from Amazon. They also have more areas that Amazon won' tackle. Wouldn't invest in either due to high cost in order to compete. Their current infrastructure is not ready to compete in the e-commerce world, and will eat up their free cashflow.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 11, 2019

Longer term, it is a solid company and e-commerce will work well for them. They have to build out their business to allow direct delivery to consumers. This will eliminate their free cash flow for the next several years. Amazon is increasing competition and adding further headwinds.

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Longer term, it is a solid company and e-commerce will work well for them. They have to build out their business to allow direct delivery to consumers. This will eliminate their free cash flow for the next several years. Amazon is increasing competition and adding further headwinds.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 22, 2019
(A Top Pick Dec 03/18, Up 8%) Very up-down chart since 2014. $120 is a good sell target which it has hit four times in that time frame. A good company.
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(A Top Pick Dec 03/18, Up 8%) Very up-down chart since 2014. $120 is a good sell target which it has hit four times in that time frame. A good company.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 18, 2019
UPS or Fedex? Fedex gave an earnings warning late last year and that hurt the value. The two stocks trade similarly. Amazon is an issue for both, who is developing their own delivery service. He wouldn't own either stock.
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UPS or Fedex? Fedex gave an earnings warning late last year and that hurt the value. The two stocks trade similarly. Amazon is an issue for both, who is developing their own delivery service. He wouldn't own either stock.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 14, 2019
(A Top Pick Oct 25/18, Down 8%) From October to December this one usually outperforms the S&P. This year the trade war got in the way so he never bought it.
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(A Top Pick Oct 25/18, Down 8%) From October to December this one usually outperforms the S&P. This year the trade war got in the way so he never bought it.
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 21, 2018
Looked like an easy trade, and then it broke down. But this is a relatively short occurrence. It will at least bounce up to where he bought it, as it's oversold. If it gets through that level, you have another sideways stock. Have to be prepared to pull triggers to sell if they fail. Yield is 3.9%. (Analysts’ price target is $122.24)
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Looked like an easy trade, and then it broke down. But this is a relatively short occurrence. It will at least bounce up to where he bought it, as it's oversold. If it gets through that level, you have another sideways stock. Have to be prepared to pull triggers to sell if they fail. Yield is 3.9%. (Analysts’ price target is $122.24)
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 25, 2018

It is a play on the US economy. The US economy is doing quite well. This is their busy time. You are trying to get in before all the other investors. Get out about December 8th.

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It is a play on the US economy. The US economy is doing quite well. This is their busy time. You are trying to get in before all the other investors. Get out about December 8th.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 5, 2018

The world leader in deliveries. they will continue to grow and will transition from brick and mortar to online. Trades at only 15x forward earnings and 4% free cash flow yield. A cheap stock. A strong buy. (2.9% dividend, Analysts' price target: $128.05)

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The world leader in deliveries. they will continue to grow and will transition from brick and mortar to online. Trades at only 15x forward earnings and 4% free cash flow yield. A cheap stock. A strong buy. (2.9% dividend, Analysts' price target: $128.05)

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 14, 2018

(A Top Pick Sept 27/17, up 1%). The largest small parcel company in the world. Amazon will not crush them. They have large economies of scale. Amazon needs UPS and FedEx. Is cheap at 14X next year’s earnings and thinks it is going higher.

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(A Top Pick Sept 27/17, up 1%). The largest small parcel company in the world. Amazon will not crush them. They have large economies of scale. Amazon needs UPS and FedEx. Is cheap at 14X next year’s earnings and thinks it is going higher.

PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
February 23, 2018

He believes the entry of Amazon into this space is creating concern. He would be a buyer here or on further weakness after the current fears subside.

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He believes the entry of Amazon into this space is creating concern. He would be a buyer here or on further weakness after the current fears subside.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 16, 2018

He has viewed this a good indicator of the economy – especially consumer goods. Amazon has decided UPS could not meet peak delivery demand and has decided to invest in their own distribution network. They will still survive.

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He has viewed this a good indicator of the economy – especially consumer goods. Amazon has decided UPS could not meet peak delivery demand and has decided to invest in their own distribution network. They will still survive.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 6, 2018

Involved with the disruption of buying at home rather than in the store. He prefers FedEx, likes its exposure to Europe. UPS exposure to Europe is about 16% whereas FedEx was around 5% before acquiring TNT, increasing exposure by about 12%, putting them neck and neck with UPS. Fedex and UPS have both had a big runup in prices. He likes the FedEx balance sheet better. Neither company pays much of a dividend. Analysts consensus for the UPS stock is around $113. (Analysts' price target $129).

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Involved with the disruption of buying at home rather than in the store. He prefers FedEx, likes its exposure to Europe. UPS exposure to Europe is about 16% whereas FedEx was around 5% before acquiring TNT, increasing exposure by about 12%, putting them neck and neck with UPS. Fedex and UPS have both had a big runup in prices. He likes the FedEx balance sheet better. Neither company pays much of a dividend. Analysts consensus for the UPS stock is around $113. (Analysts' price target $129).

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 16, 2018

The world's largest package document/delivery company. A clear beneficiary of what is happening with everybody's purchasing behaviour. Produces a lot of free cash flow. Dividend yield 2.5%. (Analysts' price target is $130.)

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The world's largest package document/delivery company. A clear beneficiary of what is happening with everybody's purchasing behaviour. Produces a lot of free cash flow. Dividend yield 2.5%. (Analysts' price target is $130.)

BUY
BUY
January 9, 2018

Very attractive. It is riding the trend of e-commerce. Not just a courier company, they are a "next day" logistics company. He would have no trouble owning this for the long-term.

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Very attractive. It is riding the trend of e-commerce. Not just a courier company, they are a "next day" logistics company. He would have no trouble owning this for the long-term.

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 3, 2018

Has avoided this, but can see why people are interested. There is the view that the post office is going to have to raise package delivery prices. However, the discussion that is important is the complete change in logistics Amazon has created. Feels this and Federal Express are organized around the idea of hubs and moving distribution through central hubs. Amazon is arranged completely differently, building warehouses in large cities. He sees incentives for retailers going directly to consumers to try to take the line away from companies, and try to turn it into a local P&D business.

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Has avoided this, but can see why people are interested. There is the view that the post office is going to have to raise package delivery prices. However, the discussion that is important is the complete change in logistics Amazon has created. Feels this and Federal Express are organized around the idea of hubs and moving distribution through central hubs. Amazon is arranged completely differently, building warehouses in large cities. He sees incentives for retailers going directly to consumers to try to take the line away from companies, and try to turn it into a local P&D business.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 19, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 27/17 Down 1%.) There is a big question mark around the future of delivery. Everybody is scared of Amazon. From a seasonal perspective, UPS doesn’t do well at this time. The seasonal trade finished on December 10th and since has pull back a little bit. From now until March it tends to be a poor performer. It’s better in fall time. This is not the time to be in UPS.

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(A Top Pick Oct 27/17 Down 1%.) There is a big question mark around the future of delivery. Everybody is scared of Amazon. From a seasonal perspective, UPS doesn’t do well at this time. The seasonal trade finished on December 10th and since has pull back a little bit. From now until March it tends to be a poor performer. It’s better in fall time. This is not the time to be in UPS.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 14, 2017

This is their busy time. It is not as compelling now. Their peak date is in a few days. Their seasonal hiring may be a little bit less this year. They get surges and try to deal with it by charging higher rates. It could lead to higher costs also. Between now and Christmas if there is no bad weather the company could do well. It all has to do with how they deal with the surge in business. At some point Ecommerce growth will slow. At the current valuation it is not as compelling as at lower levels.

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This is their busy time. It is not as compelling now. Their peak date is in a few days. Their seasonal hiring may be a little bit less this year. They get surges and try to deal with it by charging higher rates. It could lead to higher costs also. Between now and Christmas if there is no bad weather the company could do well. It all has to do with how they deal with the surge in business. At some point Ecommerce growth will slow. At the current valuation it is not as compelling as at lower levels.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 5, 2017

The balance sheet is taking a sort of a series of steps downwards. That is probably due to the idiots (company?) buying back their own stocks. Looking at the earnings forecasts and FMV, it has been flat lining since they began buying back stock. Because of this, the stock has actually created extra value. It is very expensive, trading at 30X its BV. The FMV is $82 which gives you a 33% downside risk from here. He would be very cautious about this company.

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The balance sheet is taking a sort of a series of steps downwards. That is probably due to the idiots (company?) buying back their own stocks. Looking at the earnings forecasts and FMV, it has been flat lining since they began buying back stock. Because of this, the stock has actually created extra value. It is very expensive, trading at 30X its BV. The FMV is $82 which gives you a 33% downside risk from here. He would be very cautious about this company.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 16, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 21/17. Up 8%.) Given the advent of e-retailing there are more package deliveries going on. Amazon has been the high profile player in e-commerce, but he would argue that the safer players would be companies like this and FedEx. Trading at 16X 2018 earnings with a 3% dividend yield that gets increased every year.

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(A Top Pick Feb 21/17. Up 8%.) Given the advent of e-retailing there are more package deliveries going on. Amazon has been the high profile player in e-commerce, but he would argue that the safer players would be companies like this and FedEx. Trading at 16X 2018 earnings with a 3% dividend yield that gets increased every year.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 27, 2017

There is a really strong seasonal period for this company. Since 2000 to 2016 on average, it has underperformed the S&P 500 annually. However, in the small window from Oct 10 to Dec 8, it has averaged 8% and outperformed the S&P 500 88% of the time. You want to be in it before everybody else gets in, so you get in early. If you are into Short Selling, then you want to Short this from Dec 9 to March 1. Dividend yield of 2.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $125.)

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There is a really strong seasonal period for this company. Since 2000 to 2016 on average, it has underperformed the S&P 500 annually. However, in the small window from Oct 10 to Dec 8, it has averaged 8% and outperformed the S&P 500 88% of the time. You want to be in it before everybody else gets in, so you get in early. If you are into Short Selling, then you want to Short this from Dec 9 to March 1. Dividend yield of 2.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $125.)

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 17, 2017

This hits all the boxes. It is expensive. Closed at $118.34, and his model price is $57.25, 51% higher than its model price. He would be a buyer on any pullback.

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This hits all the boxes. It is expensive. Closed at $118.34, and his model price is $57.25, 51% higher than its model price. He would be a buyer on any pullback.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 27, 2017

World’s largest package delivery company. Trading at about 9X-10X EV to EBITDA. Trading at 17-18 times earnings for a dominant position, and it is going higher. Dividend yield of 2.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $117.)

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World’s largest package delivery company. Trading at about 9X-10X EV to EBITDA. Trading at 17-18 times earnings for a dominant position, and it is going higher. Dividend yield of 2.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $117.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 9, 2017

This is in the industrial space, and with the economy moving along and getting stronger, it will be a name that will probably do well going forward. Trading at around 18X earnings with about a 9% growth rate, so it is not too cheap at this point. It has dropped below its 200-day moving average, which concerns him a little.

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This is in the industrial space, and with the economy moving along and getting stronger, it will be a name that will probably do well going forward. Trading at around 18X earnings with about a 9% growth rate, so it is not too cheap at this point. It has dropped below its 200-day moving average, which concerns him a little.

BUY
BUY
February 27, 2017

Has a huge position in FedEx (FDX-N) which is where he sticks his claim on the whole delivery space. However, this would certainly be something he would be happy to own. Doesn’t know why it has dropped, but would take advantage of it.

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Has a huge position in FedEx (FDX-N) which is where he sticks his claim on the whole delivery space. However, this would certainly be something he would be happy to own. Doesn’t know why it has dropped, but would take advantage of it.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 21, 2017

The world’s largest, global logistic company. The largest provider of small package and document delivery in the world. There was a little disappointment with their earnings last quarter and the stock pulled off, making it a great buying opportunity. Trading at 16X next year’s earnings and a 5% free cash flow yield. Dividend yield of 3.08%. (Analysts’ price target is $115.)

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The world’s largest, global logistic company. The largest provider of small package and document delivery in the world. There was a little disappointment with their earnings last quarter and the stock pulled off, making it a great buying opportunity. Trading at 16X next year’s earnings and a 5% free cash flow yield. Dividend yield of 3.08%. (Analysts’ price target is $115.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 3, 2017

He likes the carrier space and has done quite well on them. This one is acting well and has not been part of this whole run up. It is drifting higher on half decent volume. He thinks this is going to go higher.

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He likes the carrier space and has done quite well on them. This one is acting well and has not been part of this whole run up. It is drifting higher on half decent volume. He thinks this is going to go higher.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 13, 2016

(A Top Pick Oct 27/16. Up 11.94%.) This has an extremely strong seasonal trend coming into the holiday season. It has outperformed the S&P 500 80% of the time. October 10 is the time to get in, and December 8 is the time to get out.

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(A Top Pick Oct 27/16. Up 11.94%.) This has an extremely strong seasonal trend coming into the holiday season. It has outperformed the S&P 500 80% of the time. October 10 is the time to get in, and December 8 is the time to get out.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 27, 2016

From early in the year he has been talking about it. They do well from Oct. to Dec. each year.

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From early in the year he has been talking about it. They do well from Oct. to Dec. each year.

SELL
SELL
February 18, 2016

Normally when a stock goes down 10%, he ditches it, and probably before it gets there. Doesn’t like this stock. All the fundamentals are quite weak. FedEx (FDX-N) is the preferable route to go if you want to be in shipping, but with weaker overall growth in Europe and the US, and with market expectations coming down, you should just Sell on any up day.

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Normally when a stock goes down 10%, he ditches it, and probably before it gets there. Doesn’t like this stock. All the fundamentals are quite weak. FedEx (FDX-N) is the preferable route to go if you want to be in shipping, but with weaker overall growth in Europe and the US, and with market expectations coming down, you should just Sell on any up day.

SELL
SELL
January 25, 2016

This has been underperforming FedEx (FDX-N) for some time. What is worrying the street and the market generally is growth. It is really hard to see how the stock is going to perform and if you own, you should lighten up. You could consider 3M (MMM-N) instead.

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This has been underperforming FedEx (FDX-N) for some time. What is worrying the street and the market generally is growth. It is really hard to see how the stock is going to perform and if you own, you should lighten up. You could consider 3M (MMM-N) instead.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 8, 2016

We are in a period of seasonal strength for industrial companies in general, but everything seems to be rolling over. Chart shows it is coming back down to support at $94, but that was broken today. January until May is the next run up seasonally.

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We are in a period of seasonal strength for industrial companies in general, but everything seems to be rolling over. Chart shows it is coming back down to support at $94, but that was broken today. January until May is the next run up seasonally.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 11, 2015

FedEx (FDX-N) or UPS (UPS-N)? Both very good companies. Everybody is now buying online, and both companies are bulking up for the peak season. They have both equally increased prices. As an income investor he has always preferred this one. Feels it is a better run business with higher margins. Gives a higher return on capital with a much more aggressive return of capital back to shareholders with a large dividend and a significant share buyback. Dividend yield of about 3%.

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FedEx (FDX-N) or UPS (UPS-N)? Both very good companies. Everybody is now buying online, and both companies are bulking up for the peak season. They have both equally increased prices. As an income investor he has always preferred this one. Feels it is a better run business with higher margins. Gives a higher return on capital with a much more aggressive return of capital back to shareholders with a large dividend and a significant share buyback. Dividend yield of about 3%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 8, 2015

FedEx (FDX-N) or UPS (UPS-N)? Model price of $55.90 versus $102.45. This company blew out its balance sheet. Of the 2, he would look at FedEx before he would look at this one.

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