Talisman Energy

TLM-T

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Analysis and Opinions about TLM-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 17, 2015

(A Top Pick May 2/14. Down 10.28%.) Sold his holdings. It turned out to be not as good a company as he had hoped.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
April 17, 2015

(A Top Pick May 2/14. Down 10.28%.) Sold his holdings. It turned out to be not as good a company as he had hoped.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 16, 2015

If you could sell it today and replace with something with more upside, you should consider it.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
March 16, 2015

If you could sell it today and replace with something with more upside, you should consider it.

SELL
SELL
March 9, 2015

Being acquired by Repsol. If you own, take the money and run. It was always a risk, even though it was slim, that the deal wouldn’t get done.

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Being acquired by Repsol. If you own, take the money and run. It was always a risk, even though it was slim, that the deal wouldn’t get done.

SELL
SELL
January 5, 2015

This didn’t get beaten up quite so badly because it had a nice takeover bid. If you own, he would suggest that you take your money and run.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
January 5, 2015

This didn’t get beaten up quite so badly because it had a nice takeover bid. If you own, he would suggest that you take your money and run.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
December 19, 2014

When he sees what Repsol is paying for this company, he wonders what they are doing. If you own, take your money and run.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
December 19, 2014

When he sees what Repsol is paying for this company, he wonders what they are doing. If you own, take your money and run.

SELL
SELL
December 15, 2014

If they were being bought out, would he buy? It was not bought originally for a takeover. It means when it does happen, the reason for the investment is no longer there. He would get out of there, sell on the speculation.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
December 15, 2014

If they were being bought out, would he buy? It was not bought originally for a takeover. It means when it does happen, the reason for the investment is no longer there. He would get out of there, sell on the speculation.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 5, 2014

This is gassy and gas stocks are facing significant headwinds. We have an excess of gas in North America. Just doesn’t see much future for the company. Selling off assets because they need the money. There doesn’t seem to be a decent chance of having an LNG plant in the next year or 2 in Canada.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
December 5, 2014

This is gassy and gas stocks are facing significant headwinds. We have an excess of gas in North America. Just doesn’t see much future for the company. Selling off assets because they need the money. There doesn’t seem to be a decent chance of having an LNG plant in the next year or 2 in Canada.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 11, 2014

Chart shows a channel formation in 2012 and 2013, followed by a severe drop in the last half of 2014. This is not a good sign. Feels that the sudden drop has taken the stock so far from the mean that it should rebound. If crude continues lower, there is no bottom in sight for the stock. If you are trading, and it makes a 52-week low, he would sell immediately.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
November 11, 2014

Chart shows a channel formation in 2012 and 2013, followed by a severe drop in the last half of 2014. This is not a good sign. Feels that the sudden drop has taken the stock so far from the mean that it should rebound. If crude continues lower, there is no bottom in sight for the stock. If you are trading, and it makes a 52-week low, he would sell immediately.

SELL
SELL
October 30, 2014

There are better companies out there. If you find something better to buy you should sell this one. You need to look at CVE-T, for example, or SU-T. TLM-T is at a 10-year low.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
October 30, 2014

There are better companies out there. If you find something better to buy you should sell this one. You need to look at CVE-T, for example, or SU-T. TLM-T is at a 10-year low.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 23, 2014

This stock was very unattractive before the oil slide. At oil prices now, balance sheet gets weaker and the cash flow is about 3.9X. Valuation gets pricier, not horrible at 8.3X versus its peers at around 7.5. Dividend is not safe. Prefers others.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
October 23, 2014

This stock was very unattractive before the oil slide. At oil prices now, balance sheet gets weaker and the cash flow is about 3.9X. Valuation gets pricier, not horrible at 8.3X versus its peers at around 7.5. Dividend is not safe. Prefers others.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 6, 2014

Lower lows and lower highs after the last year. You have to be careful of a value trap. It is underperforming so dramatically to others. 50% or more of revenue comes from Indonesia. If they are having trouble executing in some of those markets then you should just sand aside.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
October 6, 2014

Lower lows and lower highs after the last year. You have to be careful of a value trap. It is underperforming so dramatically to others. 50% or more of revenue comes from Indonesia. If they are having trouble executing in some of those markets then you should just sand aside.

SELL
SELL
October 2, 2014

Has been a difficult company to follow. He exited at the beginning of this year. They have some problems that are tough to fix. There are lots of other solid oil companies.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
October 2, 2014

Has been a difficult company to follow. He exited at the beginning of this year. They have some problems that are tough to fix. There are lots of other solid oil companies.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 19, 2014

This is a tough one. You would think this would be a good Buy, but it isn’t. Debt to Cash Flow is 3X, which is way too high. Their 7.4 Enterprise Value to Adj. Cash Flow is still higher than others. Trying to clean up their North Sea assets to try to Sell.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
September 19, 2014

This is a tough one. You would think this would be a good Buy, but it isn’t. Debt to Cash Flow is 3X, which is way too high. Their 7.4 Enterprise Value to Adj. Cash Flow is still higher than others. Trying to clean up their North Sea assets to try to Sell.

SELL
SELL
September 9, 2014

This is a serial underperformer. Has been under performing the group significantly. If there is additional weakness in oil/gas, it is likely to break lows. Keep in mind that we are heading into October/November which is tax loss selling season.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
September 9, 2014

This is a serial underperformer. Has been under performing the group significantly. If there is additional weakness in oil/gas, it is likely to break lows. Keep in mind that we are heading into October/November which is tax loss selling season.

HOLD
HOLD
September 5, 2014

Has been a huge disappointment. Expects company to be sold in whole or in parts over the next year or two so he is hanging on.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
September 5, 2014

Has been a huge disappointment. Expects company to be sold in whole or in parts over the next year or two so he is hanging on.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 3, 2014

They have been running on a treadmill. They need to sell assets to fund their CapX program and pay their dividend. They have some good assets and some tough assets and a lot of liabilities. High commodity prices will ensure the dividend. Not a favourite name. Still a lot of risk.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
September 3, 2014

They have been running on a treadmill. They need to sell assets to fund their CapX program and pay their dividend. They have some good assets and some tough assets and a lot of liabilities. High commodity prices will ensure the dividend. Not a favourite name. Still a lot of risk.

SELL
SELL
August 18, 2014

Take the money and run. North Sea oil has had the run and is now in decline. They are trying to figure out what to do with the North Sea. Sees it as dead money.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
August 18, 2014

Take the money and run. North Sea oil has had the run and is now in decline. They are trying to figure out what to do with the North Sea. Sees it as dead money.

HOLD
HOLD
July 28, 2014

Don’t buy on the speculation of a take-out. He never owned it.

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Don’t buy on the speculation of a take-out. He never owned it.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 28, 2014

Feels the parts are worth much more than what the current share price is reflecting. Management has changed over the last 2 years. They are more focused on nearer-term profitable ventures and selling off what they consider to be more extraneous assets. They have a target of selling about another $2 billion of assets. There are rumours that Repsol is coming in looking at the company, or possibly select assets. It hasn’t really participated with a lot of the other energy companies. He is hoping to see some capital gains from here.

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Feels the parts are worth much more than what the current share price is reflecting. Management has changed over the last 2 years. They are more focused on nearer-term profitable ventures and selling off what they consider to be more extraneous assets. They have a target of selling about another $2 billion of assets. There are rumours that Repsol is coming in looking at the company, or possibly select assets. It hasn’t really participated with a lot of the other energy companies. He is hoping to see some capital gains from here.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 25, 2014

(Market Call Minute.) Have been tempted to Short this. He does not see Repsol coming in and buying an entity that is trading at a premium to most Canadian oils. Short reserve life and crummy assets.

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(Market Call Minute.) Have been tempted to Short this. He does not see Repsol coming in and buying an entity that is trading at a premium to most Canadian oils. Short reserve life and crummy assets.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 27, 2014

A company that is still going through a refocusing effort. Leverage is still an issue. North Sea is still a tremendous drag on cash flow, and is the Achilles heel. If they could sell this part of their interests it would do wonders for the stock. You might be sitting around for quite a while because he can’t think of too many people that would want to buy such a mature asset that is bleeding cash.

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A company that is still going through a refocusing effort. Leverage is still an issue. North Sea is still a tremendous drag on cash flow, and is the Achilles heel. If they could sell this part of their interests it would do wonders for the stock. You might be sitting around for quite a while because he can’t think of too many people that would want to buy such a mature asset that is bleeding cash.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 26, 2014

This is a horrible looking chart, especially when you look at relative performance. Has been doing nothing since its decline of 2011. If you Buy you want to use $10.80 as your Exit point. There are so many other energy stocks that you could have.

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This is a horrible looking chart, especially when you look at relative performance. Has been doing nothing since its decline of 2011. If you Buy you want to use $10.80 as your Exit point. There are so many other energy stocks that you could have.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 24, 2014

They are a poor allocator of capital. There are unknown tax consequences of breaking up the company. Unless there as a visible path to cash flow growth he could not invest in it.

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They are a poor allocator of capital. There are unknown tax consequences of breaking up the company. Unless there as a visible path to cash flow growth he could not invest in it.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 29, 2014

His model price is $5.24. That is a negative 52%.

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His model price is $5.24. That is a negative 52%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 27, 2014

There have been some disappointments with this company with its production in the North Sea. Stock is down, which is unusual for an oil/gas stock in the last year. Sold half their North Sea exposure to a Chinese oil company.

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There have been some disappointments with this company with its production in the North Sea. Stock is down, which is unusual for an oil/gas stock in the last year. Sold half their North Sea exposure to a Chinese oil company.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 27, 2014

We are out of the seasonal strength period for energy, so you might want to be a little cautious on this sector. On this chart, the one low is a little higher than the last one, but the most recent high was lower than the last one.

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We are out of the seasonal strength period for energy, so you might want to be a little cautious on this sector. On this chart, the one low is a little higher than the last one, but the most recent high was lower than the last one.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 6, 2014

(Market Call Minute.) Trying to refocus so are selling off their asset portfolio in order to focus on certain areas. Feels there are more attractive energy plays out there.

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(Market Call Minute.) Trying to refocus so are selling off their asset portfolio in order to focus on certain areas. Feels there are more attractive energy plays out there.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 2, 2014

Has been treading water for quite some time. New CEO brought in to turn company around. They had assets everywhere and it became unmanageable. He will sell off assets or part of the company and maybe someone will eventually come along and buy the remainder of the company. 2.5% yield. Eventually the market will realize this is a really good company.

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Has been treading water for quite some time. New CEO brought in to turn company around. They had assets everywhere and it became unmanageable. He will sell off assets or part of the company and maybe someone will eventually come along and buy the remainder of the company. 2.5% yield. Eventually the market will realize this is a really good company.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 24, 2014

We’ve seen a continual turnover of management. It is continually restructuring. He has stayed away from it.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
April 24, 2014

We’ve seen a continual turnover of management. It is continually restructuring. He has stayed away from it.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
April 14, 2014

They are trying to restructure it, sell some assets. They have to start generating more cash flow. As they restructure, he thinks they will start to focus again on core areas.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
April 14, 2014

They are trying to restructure it, sell some assets. They have to start generating more cash flow. As they restructure, he thinks they will start to focus again on core areas.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 8, 2014

A gassy stock. Going through a reorganization. They really have to sell assets. Have a problem in the North Sea, simply because that area is slowing down in production. Also, have remediation in the North Sea that is going to cost them a fair amount of money. Because gas has performed so well in North America, and storage is relatively low, he has become neutral and is watching the stock again.

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A gassy stock. Going through a reorganization. They really have to sell assets. Have a problem in the North Sea, simply because that area is slowing down in production. Also, have remediation in the North Sea that is going to cost them a fair amount of money. Because gas has performed so well in North America, and storage is relatively low, he has become neutral and is watching the stock again.

HOLD
HOLD
March 17, 2014

Struggled. Had to concentrate on core areas and that hurt them. Hang on to it but it is not a favorite for growth going forward. The debt is a little higher than it needs to be. Prefers Crew, which he owns.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
March 17, 2014

Struggled. Had to concentrate on core areas and that hurt them. Hang on to it but it is not a favorite for growth going forward. The debt is a little higher than it needs to be. Prefers Crew, which he owns.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 12, 2014

Worth a quick trade? That’s a tough one. Carl Eichorn is involved and he doesn’t do things for no reason. He’s in there to stir things up. It is difficult for them to split up some of their stuff and they already tried for a couple of years but hadn’t been very successful. To him the Asset Value is only about $13. He wouldn’t try because he doesn’t like the assets that much.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
March 12, 2014

Worth a quick trade? That’s a tough one. Carl Eichorn is involved and he doesn’t do things for no reason. He’s in there to stir things up. It is difficult for them to split up some of their stuff and they already tried for a couple of years but hadn’t been very successful. To him the Asset Value is only about $13. He wouldn’t try because he doesn’t like the assets that much.

SELL
SELL
March 10, 2014

Gave up on this a number of years ago. This has the awkward situation of always being worth more if you broke it up than it was together. If you own, he would try something else.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
March 10, 2014

Gave up on this a number of years ago. This has the awkward situation of always being worth more if you broke it up than it was together. If you own, he would try something else.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 27, 2014

Anytime you get an active investor coming in, you saw what happened with CP but in this one he did it in one year. It seems to him this one is too hard to turn things around.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
January 27, 2014

Anytime you get an active investor coming in, you saw what happened with CP but in this one he did it in one year. It seems to him this one is too hard to turn things around.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 22, 2014

A gassy company and, at the present time gas margins are still not great and are not likely to get great. Have a lot of restructuring to do to pare down costs and really bring the company back into more of a growth mode. Also the US is coming on with relatively cheap production in various areas.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
January 22, 2014

A gassy company and, at the present time gas margins are still not great and are not likely to get great. Have a lot of restructuring to do to pare down costs and really bring the company back into more of a growth mode. Also the US is coming on with relatively cheap production in various areas.

BUY
BUY
January 20, 2014

Has a good chance of breaking out. It has made a major base since 2012. It just had a breakout and probably about to break out of a much larger trading range. It could participate in the general movement of the energy stocks.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
January 20, 2014

Has a good chance of breaking out. It has made a major base since 2012. It just had a breakout and probably about to break out of a much larger trading range. It could participate in the general movement of the energy stocks.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 3, 2014

Relative strength (RSI) is a bit concerning. Chart shows lower lows and lower highs. Not showing the strength you want to see coming into the period of seasonal strength. Bouncing off its 200 day moving average, which could provide a bit of support.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
January 3, 2014

Relative strength (RSI) is a bit concerning. Chart shows lower lows and lower highs. Not showing the strength you want to see coming into the period of seasonal strength. Bouncing off its 200 day moving average, which could provide a bit of support.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 11, 2013

(A Top Pick Dec 21/12. Down 22.63%.) Still likes this. This is a case where the parts are worth more than the whole. Management has been divesting a lot of assets. Prices they have been getting have been pretty good. New Management is very focused on capital allocation and going to projects with more immediate returns.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
December 11, 2013

(A Top Pick Dec 21/12. Down 22.63%.) Still likes this. This is a case where the parts are worth more than the whole. Management has been divesting a lot of assets. Prices they have been getting have been pretty good. New Management is very focused on capital allocation and going to projects with more immediate returns.

SELL
SELL
November 19, 2013

(Market Call Minute) Trying to be actively restructured and it looks like it will be really, really difficult to turn around.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
November 19, 2013

(Market Call Minute) Trying to be actively restructured and it looks like it will be really, really difficult to turn around.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 11, 2013

A chronic underperformed for a number of years. We have a nice multiyear base pattern developing. Thinks we could get a turnaround story here. The energy space is still pretty dead money for the next couple of years, though. The sector won’t do much and oil prices will stay pretty much anchored for the next year. Take advantage of pull backs in stocks to start accumulating this.

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Talisman Energy (TLM-T)
November 11, 2013