TFI International Inc

TFII-T

TSE:TFII

50.70
1.34 (2.71%)
TFI International Inc. is a Canadian transport and logistics company based in Montreal, Quebec. It operates across Canada through 4 business segments, and in the United States.
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Analysis and Opinions about TFII-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 25, 2016

(Top Pick Aug 14/15, Up 11.14%) There is a good opportunity to cut costs. He likes it but does not own it any more. He moved on.

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(Top Pick Aug 14/15, Up 11.14%) There is a good opportunity to cut costs. He likes it but does not own it any more. He moved on.

BUY
BUY
August 2, 2016

A really smart operator in a really bad industry. Trucking is not a good business, but their ability to basically outsource the trucks and trailers from Saputo (SAP-T) about 20 years ago, turned it into the business that we see today. Management has done a phenomenal job by running a slightly better business than everybody else, in a terrible industry. Today it is about an 11% free cash flow yield on 2017, with M&A potential. Good management.

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A really smart operator in a really bad industry. Trucking is not a good business, but their ability to basically outsource the trucks and trailers from Saputo (SAP-T) about 20 years ago, turned it into the business that we see today. Management has done a phenomenal job by running a slightly better business than everybody else, in a terrible industry. Today it is about an 11% free cash flow yield on 2017, with M&A potential. Good management.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 18, 2016

(A Top Pick Aug 14/15. Up 2.95%.) Sold this to move into CNR (CNR-T). He continues to like the company. They are doing a good job in their acquisition and consolidation strategy, and pay a decent yield. Still a Hold.

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(A Top Pick Aug 14/15. Up 2.95%.) Sold this to move into CNR (CNR-T). He continues to like the company. They are doing a good job in their acquisition and consolidation strategy, and pay a decent yield. Still a Hold.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 7, 2016

(A Top Pick July 2/15. Down 5.23%.) A consolidator in a very fragmented industry. Trucking rates have been weak, which has held them back. He still thinks there are legs on this story. Dividend yield of 2.9%.

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(A Top Pick July 2/15. Down 5.23%.) A consolidator in a very fragmented industry. Trucking rates have been weak, which has held them back. He still thinks there are legs on this story. Dividend yield of 2.9%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 1, 2016

There have been multiple spikes in volume, and every time there is a spike, there is a drop. It is acting well and looks great, but is very, very toppy in the high $20s. Has good support at $22. Looks like it is going to be very range bound for quite some time, barring news of some sort.

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There have been multiple spikes in volume, and every time there is a spike, there is a drop. It is acting well and looks great, but is very, very toppy in the high $20s. Has good support at $22. Looks like it is going to be very range bound for quite some time, barring news of some sort.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 9, 2016

LTL trucking. We are seeing a head and shoulders pattern with overhead supply. Investors buying over $24 are looking to sell.

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LTL trucking. We are seeing a head and shoulders pattern with overhead supply. Investors buying over $24 are looking to sell.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 5, 2016

A free cash flow machine. The trucking Index in the US is at a 52 week high, and this company hasn’t followed, because they had put a Dutch auction to buy back $200 million of stock up to $22. It capped a little, and you are now seeing it drift over $22. Of the $200 million, only $60 million was tendered, which means a) the company’s $22 was a very opportunistic price and b) shareholders thought it was a very low price, so he feels it is probably worth more than $22. At the same time, they are investing quite a bit in "last mile", developing a relationship with Amazon (AMZN-Q), which is taking over the retail world. Has one of the best COs in Canada. Dividend yield of 3.08%.

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A free cash flow machine. The trucking Index in the US is at a 52 week high, and this company hasn’t followed, because they had put a Dutch auction to buy back $200 million of stock up to $22. It capped a little, and you are now seeing it drift over $22. Of the $200 million, only $60 million was tendered, which means a) the company’s $22 was a very opportunistic price and b) shareholders thought it was a very low price, so he feels it is probably worth more than $22. At the same time, they are investing quite a bit in "last mile", developing a relationship with Amazon (AMZN-Q), which is taking over the retail world. Has one of the best COs in Canada. Dividend yield of 3.08%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 28, 2016

Trucking, courier and hauling large equipment in the oil country, which has not been a good part of their business. Did an exciting deal by selling their waste management business. They now have a big cash collection where they are planning to do a Dutch Auction for some of the shares, which they will use to reduce debt. Trucking has been tough in Canada, but he is seeing data of improving truck tonnage in the US, where they have a lot of exposure. Also, has big exposure to Google (GOOG-Q) and Amazon (AMZN-Q), and is involved in same day shipping with a lot of online retailers. An interesting way to play on-line growth over time. Pays a nice dividend. Trading at around 10-11 times earnings, and it is undervalued.

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Trucking, courier and hauling large equipment in the oil country, which has not been a good part of their business. Did an exciting deal by selling their waste management business. They now have a big cash collection where they are planning to do a Dutch Auction for some of the shares, which they will use to reduce debt. Trucking has been tough in Canada, but he is seeing data of improving truck tonnage in the US, where they have a lot of exposure. Also, has big exposure to Google (GOOG-Q) and Amazon (AMZN-Q), and is involved in same day shipping with a lot of online retailers. An interesting way to play on-line growth over time. Pays a nice dividend. Trading at around 10-11 times earnings, and it is undervalued.

BUY
BUY
March 21, 2016

The selling of their garbage assets out East made perfect sense, so it is now just a pure play on trucking. Doesn’t think the market is punishing them because of the sale of their asset. Trucking stocks have all come down, because of the fear that the US and Canadian economies are rolling over into a recession, especially here in Canada. People believe that volumes are coming down and that there is excess capacity in the US. Since half of their revenues come from that, there are fears that rates will start to come down. There have been talks about pressures over the last while. This is probably a good bet right now at this lower valuation.

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The selling of their garbage assets out East made perfect sense, so it is now just a pure play on trucking. Doesn’t think the market is punishing them because of the sale of their asset. Trucking stocks have all come down, because of the fear that the US and Canadian economies are rolling over into a recession, especially here in Canada. People believe that volumes are coming down and that there is excess capacity in the US. Since half of their revenues come from that, there are fears that rates will start to come down. There have been talks about pressures over the last while. This is probably a good bet right now at this lower valuation.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 2, 2016

Theoretically lower fuel prices are supposed to help these companies. The chart is showing a breakdown with lower highs and lower lows since early 2015. There is some hope as some of the lows seem to be holding. Pay a lot of attention to the last peak of around $25-$26, which might be a point of target if the market rallies the way he thinks it might over the next 2-3 weeks.

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Theoretically lower fuel prices are supposed to help these companies. The chart is showing a breakdown with lower highs and lower lows since early 2015. There is some hope as some of the lows seem to be holding. Pay a lot of attention to the last peak of around $25-$26, which might be a point of target if the market rallies the way he thinks it might over the next 2-3 weeks.

HOLD
HOLD
January 21, 2016

Very little organic growth on this, and not cheap relative to its peers. He still models pretty good dividend growth. Leverage is a little high right now, so they are probably not making acquisitions. Spun out their waste business, which brings their debt levels down to a more reasonable place. Not cheap relative to its peers.

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Very little organic growth on this, and not cheap relative to its peers. He still models pretty good dividend growth. Leverage is a little high right now, so they are probably not making acquisitions. Spun out their waste business, which brings their debt levels down to a more reasonable place. Not cheap relative to its peers.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 5, 2016

(Top Pick Feb 4/2015, Down 17.59%) He still likes the story. They have firmed up margins. We need a little more growth in the economy.

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(Top Pick Feb 4/2015, Down 17.59%) He still likes the story. They have firmed up margins. We need a little more growth in the economy.

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 18, 2015

He is a believer in this company. They have done very well in consolidating the “less than truckload” cartridge industry in Canada. Stock took a bit of a hit in the 3rd quarter like everybody else, but is now coming back a little. Low fuel prices are to their advantage. Thinks there are more acquisitions out there for them.

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He is a believer in this company. They have done very well in consolidating the “less than truckload” cartridge industry in Canada. Stock took a bit of a hit in the 3rd quarter like everybody else, but is now coming back a little. Low fuel prices are to their advantage. Thinks there are more acquisitions out there for them.

BUY
BUY
October 29, 2015

They sold their waste management division so they could focus on their trucking business which is where they make the bulk of their money. The fact that they sold a distraction and freed up cash makes sense to him as a shareholder. He continues to buy for new clients. 35% revenue in the US and 65% in Canada. It has not done much this year, but he felt the valuation was reasonable. Right now he feels people are just taking profits.

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They sold their waste management division so they could focus on their trucking business which is where they make the bulk of their money. The fact that they sold a distraction and freed up cash makes sense to him as a shareholder. He continues to buy for new clients. 35% revenue in the US and 65% in Canada. It has not done much this year, but he felt the valuation was reasonable. Right now he feels people are just taking profits.

WAIT
WAIT
September 14, 2015

A very well run company and it generates lots of free cash flow. Last year they used half their cash flow to buy back stock. It looks attractive. In ’08 when the economy slowed down they got hit hard, so he worries what will happen in this slowdown. Wait until we know we are not in a recession.

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A very well run company and it generates lots of free cash flow. Last year they used half their cash flow to buy back stock. It looks attractive. In ’08 when the economy slowed down they got hit hard, so he worries what will happen in this slowdown. Wait until we know we are not in a recession.

BUY
BUY
September 8, 2015

Likes this company, primarily on valuation. ROE is at around 15%. PE of about 16. Beat their last quarter by about 27%. Yield of 2.9%.

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Likes this company, primarily on valuation. ROE is at around 15%. PE of about 16. Beat their last quarter by about 27%. Yield of 2.9%.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 14, 2015

A cross-border trucking company, and with gas prices being as low as they are, they will benefit. Also, with the Cdn$ coming down as much is it has, it encourages cross-border shipping to take place. They have been busy doing acquisitions which have put downside pressure on the share price. Attractive valuation. Trading at 15X. Good dividend yield of 2.70%.

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A cross-border trucking company, and with gas prices being as low as they are, they will benefit. Also, with the Cdn$ coming down as much is it has, it encourages cross-border shipping to take place. They have been busy doing acquisitions which have put downside pressure on the share price. Attractive valuation. Trading at 15X. Good dividend yield of 2.70%.

WATCH
WATCH
July 23, 2015

Technically this is not looking too good. It is in a downward trend and is underperforming the TSE Composite and currently trading below its 20 day moving average. This is not an attractive opportunity technically. It has long term support at around $22, and we are not too far off of that. Wait for it to test around the $22 level and show signs of bottoming.

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Technically this is not looking too good. It is in a downward trend and is underperforming the TSE Composite and currently trading below its 20 day moving average. This is not an attractive opportunity technically. It has long term support at around $22, and we are not too far off of that. Wait for it to test around the $22 level and show signs of bottoming.

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 20, 2015

They have expanded and done very, very well in terms of their fleet acquisition. He is not all that enthusiastic about transport, particularly in Canada. One of the things that should be positively affecting them is the cost of diesel, which has been a big wind at their back. This has not affected their stock price as much as he had expected. He would want this to be a lot cheaper before he looked at it. Such as 5X EBITDA. Their core operating profit has been out West which is going to get hurt.

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They have expanded and done very, very well in terms of their fleet acquisition. He is not all that enthusiastic about transport, particularly in Canada. One of the things that should be positively affecting them is the cost of diesel, which has been a big wind at their back. This has not affected their stock price as much as he had expected. He would want this to be a lot cheaper before he looked at it. Such as 5X EBITDA. Their core operating profit has been out West which is going to get hurt.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 2, 2015

Mostly East West business, but some North South. It was sold off because of Alberta and a lack of pickup in manufacturing in Ontario. They acquired a number of companies and have become the premier trucking company in Canada. It is cheap, down about 14% and you can buy it while it is down.

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Mostly East West business, but some North South. It was sold off because of Alberta and a lack of pickup in manufacturing in Ontario. They acquired a number of companies and have become the premier trucking company in Canada. It is cheap, down about 14% and you can buy it while it is down.

BUY
BUY
June 15, 2015

Continues to buy this for new clients. Has pulled back meaningfully from the beginning of the year. They always have a lousy 1st quarter, weather related. Sees them selling off their waste division and looking to split the company into 2 or 3 parts. That could realize value. Recently got contracts with Google and Amazon for same day delivery in New York and some Canadian cities. Generates a lot of free cash flow, which is being used right now to buy back stock.

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Continues to buy this for new clients. Has pulled back meaningfully from the beginning of the year. They always have a lousy 1st quarter, weather related. Sees them selling off their waste division and looking to split the company into 2 or 3 parts. That could realize value. Recently got contracts with Google and Amazon for same day delivery in New York and some Canadian cities. Generates a lot of free cash flow, which is being used right now to buy back stock.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 10, 2015

This has a pretty good upward trend. Broke a little bit of support recently, but wouldn’t be too concerned until it broke the low of later 2014. Pays a reasonable dividend. Looks like the easy money has been made. Yield of 2.6%.

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This has a pretty good upward trend. Broke a little bit of support recently, but wouldn’t be too concerned until it broke the low of later 2014. Pays a reasonable dividend. Looks like the easy money has been made. Yield of 2.6%.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 5, 2015

Transportation actually starts to fall off at this time of year. He would not be stepping into this during the summertime. Transportation will come back in the October time frame. It is actually a possible short in the summertime as it gets quite weak.

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Transportation actually starts to fall off at this time of year. He would not be stepping into this during the summertime. Transportation will come back in the October time frame. It is actually a possible short in the summertime as it gets quite weak.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 24, 2015

(A Top Pick Feb 5/2014. Up 24.93%.) Had a lousy year last year because of bad weather, which provided a couple of opportunities to buy the stock. Last year this was trading at a 10% free cash flow yield. Companies that generate massive free cash flows, provide wonderful opportunities. Still loves this.

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(A Top Pick Feb 5/2014. Up 24.93%.) Had a lousy year last year because of bad weather, which provided a couple of opportunities to buy the stock. Last year this was trading at a 10% free cash flow yield. Companies that generate massive free cash flows, provide wonderful opportunities. Still loves this.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 6, 2015

On transportation companies, either trucks or rails, there are fuel surcharges. Lower oil prices will stimulate the economy. This company is a very large, diverse trucking firm. One of the growth areas is the packaging/courier business. This company has some partnerships with Google, and he thinks this will grow over time with the continued growth of e-commerce. You also get the benefit of a spin out sometime this year of their truckload business. Over time, they could also sell/dispose of their waste management division. These are key catalysts. Extremely well-run.

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On transportation companies, either trucks or rails, there are fuel surcharges. Lower oil prices will stimulate the economy. This company is a very large, diverse trucking firm. One of the growth areas is the packaging/courier business. This company has some partnerships with Google, and he thinks this will grow over time with the continued growth of e-commerce. You also get the benefit of a spin out sometime this year of their truckload business. Over time, they could also sell/dispose of their waste management division. These are key catalysts. Extremely well-run.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 4, 2015

This company has been consolidating the “less than truckload” trucking industry. When you buy your competitors, there is always a little question about digesting them and merging the cultures, but over time you should be able to become more efficient and be able to increase your margins. Lower fuel prices are a huge benefit for the trucking companies, not just because of the cost saving, but allowing them to become more competitive with the railways. Dividend yield of 2.34%.

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This company has been consolidating the “less than truckload” trucking industry. When you buy your competitors, there is always a little question about digesting them and merging the cultures, but over time you should be able to become more efficient and be able to increase your margins. Lower fuel prices are a huge benefit for the trucking companies, not just because of the cost saving, but allowing them to become more competitive with the railways. Dividend yield of 2.34%.

BUY
BUY
January 15, 2015

Transportation Sector. Loves the sector a lot. They bought 3 other companies. Likes this one a lot and thinks it is going higher. Alternatively you could get FDX-N in the US.

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Transportation Sector. Loves the sector a lot. They bought 3 other companies. Likes this one a lot and thinks it is going higher. Alternatively you could get FDX-N in the US.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 12, 2015

(A Top Pick Feb 5/14. Up 25.99%.) Had a very lousy 1st and 2nd quarter in 2014. The ice storm really affected their business. With Canada Post possibly dropping out next year, this will have a bigger market share. He plans to hold this one for a long time.

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(A Top Pick Feb 5/14. Up 25.99%.) Had a very lousy 1st and 2nd quarter in 2014. The ice storm really affected their business. With Canada Post possibly dropping out next year, this will have a bigger market share. He plans to hold this one for a long time.

BUY
BUY
November 17, 2014

Have developed a pretty solid track record for showing they can identify good acquisitions and integrating them. Because of that it has a very good growth profile. Has been looking at this. Looking out to 2015-2016, he feels fairly confident they can keep a pretty good growth profile. The stock is not that expensive in that context. A good candidate to own for 2-3 years. 2% dividend yield.

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Have developed a pretty solid track record for showing they can identify good acquisitions and integrating them. Because of that it has a very good growth profile. Has been looking at this. Looking out to 2015-2016, he feels fairly confident they can keep a pretty good growth profile. The stock is not that expensive in that context. A good candidate to own for 2-3 years. 2% dividend yield.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 13, 2014

(Top Pick Oct 30/13, Up 31.16%) They are good at acquiring businesses and keep the business going. They got into waste management also. Going forward they need to reduce their debt. They need to use the free cash flow to pay down debt.

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(Top Pick Oct 30/13, Up 31.16%) They are good at acquiring businesses and keep the business going. They got into waste management also. Going forward they need to reduce their debt. They need to use the free cash flow to pay down debt.

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