Trican Well Service Ltd.

TCW-T

TSE:TCW

0.95
0.04 (4.40%)
Trican Well Service Ltd. is an oilfield services corporation headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada with operations in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Canada as well as the United States.
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Analysis and Opinions about TCW-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 5, 2018

Extra service names are absolutely where the best risk/reward opportunities are. He's specifically focused on the fracers both Canada and the US. This is an area where pricing power remains very strong. Canada's ECO pricing is impacting pricing power, but he sees it sticking. Believes both Canada and the US will be undersupplied for pressure pumping for all of 2018, and likely heading into 2019 despite the concerns of weak natural gas prices. This company gives you almost pure exposure in Canada. You are paying a multiple that is about half its historical average because of this worry of overcapacity in Canada. He doesn't believe in that thesis. Sees about 50% upside in the shares. (Analysts' price target is $6.50.)

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Extra service names are absolutely where the best risk/reward opportunities are. He's specifically focused on the fracers both Canada and the US. This is an area where pricing power remains very strong. Canada's ECO pricing is impacting pricing power, but he sees it sticking. Believes both Canada and the US will be undersupplied for pressure pumping for all of 2018, and likely heading into 2019 despite the concerns of weak natural gas prices. This company gives you almost pure exposure in Canada. You are paying a multiple that is about half its historical average because of this worry of overcapacity in Canada. He doesn't believe in that thesis. Sees about 50% upside in the shares. (Analysts' price target is $6.50.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2018

Just took over Canyon Energy Services. The company does fracing pressure pumping with fluids to crack the rocks to get the hydrocarbons out. These companies are poised to have a pretty good year in 2018, especially as oil prices are perking up. It looks pretty good going into the new year, but you are vulnerable to a collapse in oil prices with no dividend to back you up.

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Just took over Canyon Energy Services. The company does fracing pressure pumping with fluids to crack the rocks to get the hydrocarbons out. These companies are poised to have a pretty good year in 2018, especially as oil prices are perking up. It looks pretty good going into the new year, but you are vulnerable to a collapse in oil prices with no dividend to back you up.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 29, 2017

Over the last 2 years, the chart looks fairly promising in an up channel, but there is a big overhead supply going back over time. The stock is going nowhere, and will probably go sideways from here. There are probably better things to do.

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Over the last 2 years, the chart looks fairly promising in an up channel, but there is a big overhead supply going back over time. The stock is going nowhere, and will probably go sideways from here. There are probably better things to do.

BUY
BUY
December 18, 2017

He thinks it is should be bought in Q1 after a possible back off in oil. They have debt but shares in a US operation that offsets the debt. They had a fabulous quarter. It bottomed in early 2016. The balance sheet is now clean and they could make acquisitions. A non-compete clause with an acquisition expires in 2018.

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He thinks it is should be bought in Q1 after a possible back off in oil. They have debt but shares in a US operation that offsets the debt. They had a fabulous quarter. It bottomed in early 2016. The balance sheet is now clean and they could make acquisitions. A non-compete clause with an acquisition expires in 2018.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 15, 2017

This gives you pure Canadian exposure in a market that is undersupplied. In their conference call, they said they had visibility through to break up, which would be Q2. All their equipment is spoken for through all 2018.

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This gives you pure Canadian exposure in a market that is undersupplied. In their conference call, they said they had visibility through to break up, which would be Q2. All their equipment is spoken for through all 2018.

WATCH
WATCH
November 2, 2017

It is flat but had a bit of a recovery with the whole group. If he was going to play this group he would choose this or one other. He wants to see another quarter (first week in Feb) and that may be when he gets back in.

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It is flat but had a bit of a recovery with the whole group. If he was going to play this group he would choose this or one other. He wants to see another quarter (first week in Feb) and that may be when he gets back in.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 18, 2017

Came off dramatically as oil prices came off in 2015-2016. He typically doesn’t like oil services or energy related stocks, simply because they don’t have the ROE profile he is looking for. Would prefer Pason Systems (PSI-T) or Badger (BAD-T) instead.

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Came off dramatically as oil prices came off in 2015-2016. He typically doesn’t like oil services or energy related stocks, simply because they don’t have the ROE profile he is looking for. Would prefer Pason Systems (PSI-T) or Badger (BAD-T) instead.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 15, 2017

Pricing is going up and demand is nearing a record high. They are at 100% utilization of all the equipment that they can man. They have demand for 3 more spreads, and can’t find people to actually work on it. This shows how tight this market is at a fairly crappy commodity price, where you have weak gas prices. Thinks this stock next year, can EBITDA $300 million. Trading at 4X EV to EBITDA on 2018, where it usually trades at 7 or 7.5 times, so still sees it as a $6-$7 stock. He likes this company very, very much.

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Pricing is going up and demand is nearing a record high. They are at 100% utilization of all the equipment that they can man. They have demand for 3 more spreads, and can’t find people to actually work on it. This shows how tight this market is at a fairly crappy commodity price, where you have weak gas prices. Thinks this stock next year, can EBITDA $300 million. Trading at 4X EV to EBITDA on 2018, where it usually trades at 7 or 7.5 times, so still sees it as a $6-$7 stock. He likes this company very, very much.

WAIT
WAIT
July 28, 2017

He likes the service sector, but if he is right and the price of oil is going down below $40, these stocks get hurt more. They are high beta securities. This company has a nice investment in Kean, the US assets, which almost equals the amount of debt they have. At the end of Q1, BV was $2.62. Feels this is going to be very attractive in the next cycle. Feels the stock could come down below $2.

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He likes the service sector, but if he is right and the price of oil is going down below $40, these stocks get hurt more. They are high beta securities. This company has a nice investment in Kean, the US assets, which almost equals the amount of debt they have. At the end of Q1, BV was $2.62. Feels this is going to be very attractive in the next cycle. Feels the stock could come down below $2.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 19, 2017

Canada is materially undersupplied for pressure pumping demand. Pricing will continue to go up, and yet these stocks are selling off in the belief that while crude oil has checked back, companies are losing pricing power. That is not correct. This company can cash flow $300 million next year. Where the stock price is trading at, it is discounting by about $150 million of cash flow next year, not $300 million. If he is correct, there is 75%-100% upside in the stock. A stock price of $6-$7 is not unreasonable. (Analysts’ price target is $5.88.)

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Canada is materially undersupplied for pressure pumping demand. Pricing will continue to go up, and yet these stocks are selling off in the belief that while crude oil has checked back, companies are losing pricing power. That is not correct. This company can cash flow $300 million next year. Where the stock price is trading at, it is discounting by about $150 million of cash flow next year, not $300 million. If he is correct, there is 75%-100% upside in the stock. A stock price of $6-$7 is not unreasonable. (Analysts’ price target is $5.88.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
July 14, 2017

If the underlying commodity price improves, that should be beneficial. At the moment, earnings estimates are for $.04 in 2017, a pretty pricey PE multiple. This is expected to improve to $.27 in 2018 which gives a 12 multiple, and a $.53 multiple for 2019 giving a 7 PE, which becomes interesting. It looks like a reasonable bet.

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If the underlying commodity price improves, that should be beneficial. At the moment, earnings estimates are for $.04 in 2017, a pretty pricey PE multiple. This is expected to improve to $.27 in 2018 which gives a 12 multiple, and a $.53 multiple for 2019 giving a 7 PE, which becomes interesting. It looks like a reasonable bet.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
July 5, 2017

*Long* (Pairs trade with a Short on Pason Systems (PSI-T)). An area he likes in energy services. The pressure pumpers and fracers are the ones that are actually making money at the moment. The stock is cheap. He likes management and the merger they just did. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $6.)

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*Long* (Pairs trade with a Short on Pason Systems (PSI-T)). An area he likes in energy services. The pressure pumpers and fracers are the ones that are actually making money at the moment. The stock is cheap. He likes management and the merger they just did. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $6.)

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 28, 2017

This, along with all the other drillers, has been a tough one. On a pure price momentum basis, it has held up better than a lot of its exploration energy peers. It has the same problem that a lot of energy companies have. Not cheap on some of the measures he looks at. The whole sector needs to start earning money for him to get interested.

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This, along with all the other drillers, has been a tough one. On a pure price momentum basis, it has held up better than a lot of its exploration energy peers. It has the same problem that a lot of energy companies have. Not cheap on some of the measures he looks at. The whole sector needs to start earning money for him to get interested.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 12, 2017

In the process of integrating Canyon, and will be the largest fracing company in Canada. A very high beta stock that does very well when you have big swings in the cycle. BV is $2.62. Had an operating profit in Q1 of $23 million versus a loss of 26 million in the prior year.

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In the process of integrating Canyon, and will be the largest fracing company in Canada. A very high beta stock that does very well when you have big swings in the cycle. BV is $2.62. Had an operating profit in Q1 of $23 million versus a loss of 26 million in the prior year.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 23, 2017

Thinks the market is completely asleep in terms of their earning capability. Pricing is going up quarter after quarter, and their equipment is fully utilized for the rest of this year. They have a merger with Canyon Services (FCR-T) pretty soon. Prices are increasing virtually every day. He sees extremely good upside on a stock that has been out of favour. At the same time, you get the hidden optionality with their remaining interest in Kean (?). (Analysts’ price target is $6.)

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Thinks the market is completely asleep in terms of their earning capability. Pricing is going up quarter after quarter, and their equipment is fully utilized for the rest of this year. They have a merger with Canyon Services (FCR-T) pretty soon. Prices are increasing virtually every day. He sees extremely good upside on a stock that has been out of favour. At the same time, you get the hidden optionality with their remaining interest in Kean (?). (Analysts’ price target is $6.)

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