Trican Well Service Ltd.

TCW-T

TSE:TCW

0.84
0.02 (2.44%)
Trican Well Service Ltd. is an oilfield services corporation headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada with operations in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Canada as well as the United States.
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Analysis and Opinions about TCW-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
May 1, 2018

He really likes this but has not moved it to his Action Alert list yet. Book value is $3.40, which is about where the stock is trading. It has a fabulous balance sheet. They have a little bit of debt, $83 million, but they own a position in Keane Energy which is worth much more than that, so this is effectively a debt-free company. They are the largest fracker in Canada. The stock is up about 20% from its lows of the last month because of the bounce. Wait until the stock drops again; he thinks it will go below $3.

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He really likes this but has not moved it to his Action Alert list yet. Book value is $3.40, which is about where the stock is trading. It has a fabulous balance sheet. They have a little bit of debt, $83 million, but they own a position in Keane Energy which is worth much more than that, so this is effectively a debt-free company. They are the largest fracker in Canada. The stock is up about 20% from its lows of the last month because of the bounce. Wait until the stock drops again; he thinks it will go below $3.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 17, 2018

(A Top Pick June 19, 2017. Down 16%). The entire pressure-pumping sector, including Trican, is completely undervalued. This company trades at 3x next year’s EBITDA. Mid-cycle valuations are closer to 4 or 4.5. The company has been spitting out high free cash flow, which has let them do $54 million in buybacks. When Shell makes its positive decision on an LNG terminal, which he expects this year, it will be very positive for Trican. He projects their free cash flow yield next year at 20%. He sold his position even though he likes the stock because he thinks that US pumpers are even more cheap than Trican. He can buy the US peers nearer 2.2 times EBITDA, compared to Trican’s 3x and they generate even better cash flow.

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(A Top Pick June 19, 2017. Down 16%). The entire pressure-pumping sector, including Trican, is completely undervalued. This company trades at 3x next year’s EBITDA. Mid-cycle valuations are closer to 4 or 4.5. The company has been spitting out high free cash flow, which has let them do $54 million in buybacks. When Shell makes its positive decision on an LNG terminal, which he expects this year, it will be very positive for Trican. He projects their free cash flow yield next year at 20%. He sold his position even though he likes the stock because he thinks that US pumpers are even more cheap than Trican. He can buy the US peers nearer 2.2 times EBITDA, compared to Trican’s 3x and they generate even better cash flow.

WATCH
WATCH
April 6, 2018

This stock has been a source of frustration for many investors. Recent earnings guidance has disappointed the market. Their margins have been eroded and they hold a lot of debt. He thinks this is getting closer to an entry.

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This stock has been a source of frustration for many investors. Recent earnings guidance has disappointed the market. Their margins have been eroded and they hold a lot of debt. He thinks this is getting closer to an entry.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
April 3, 2018

This is on his coverage list but not yet on his recommended list. Book value is $3.47 compared to its price today of $2.85. The balance sheet is in good shape, their debts are relatively low ($83 million compared to 1.17 billion of equity, which he calls a “non-debt company”). They’re coming to their lows of the year. He likes the company a lot and he expects it to do much better than it did last year. However, if oil drops below $60, Trican will probably be hit a little more. He expects to add it to his action alert buy list in Q2. This company has traded on 2x book value a few times, during bull markets for oil. He thinks it can more than double over the next two years.

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This is on his coverage list but not yet on his recommended list. Book value is $3.47 compared to its price today of $2.85. The balance sheet is in good shape, their debts are relatively low ($83 million compared to 1.17 billion of equity, which he calls a “non-debt company”). They’re coming to their lows of the year. He likes the company a lot and he expects it to do much better than it did last year. However, if oil drops below $60, Trican will probably be hit a little more. He expects to add it to his action alert buy list in Q2. This company has traded on 2x book value a few times, during bull markets for oil. He thinks it can more than double over the next two years.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 16, 2018

He likes the leadership and the balance sheet. They are doing stock buy-backs. Below $3 this is a great buy. They are the biggest fracker in Canada. Book value is $3.47 and it has traded 2.6 times book value. Be patient. He has a $12 target for 3-5 years.

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He likes the leadership and the balance sheet. They are doing stock buy-backs. Below $3 this is a great buy. They are the biggest fracker in Canada. Book value is $3.47 and it has traded 2.6 times book value. Be patient. He has a $12 target for 3-5 years.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 15, 2018

(A Top Pick May 23/17, Down 27%) A pure play in Canadian pressure pumping. Still a big holding for him. Got penalized for concerns to their exposure to dry natural gas. But the market ignored their play in East Duvernay. This has been the poster child to Americans selling or shorting Canadian oil. A major plus: This company is buying back $54 million of stock with their net cash.

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(A Top Pick May 23/17, Down 27%) A pure play in Canadian pressure pumping. Still a big holding for him. Got penalized for concerns to their exposure to dry natural gas. But the market ignored their play in East Duvernay. This has been the poster child to Americans selling or shorting Canadian oil. A major plus: This company is buying back $54 million of stock with their net cash.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 23, 2018

A very volatile industry. They are in fracking. A lot of their cost structure is labor. As the labor market becomes tighter it gets into their margins. Very difficult for these companies to get pricing pressure because it is an undifferentiated commodity.

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A very volatile industry. They are in fracking. A lot of their cost structure is labor. As the labor market becomes tighter it gets into their margins. Very difficult for these companies to get pricing pressure because it is an undifferentiated commodity.

WATCH
WATCH
February 12, 2018

They have a fabulous balance sheet. The debt is offset by their investment in a fracker. $3.40 book value.

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They have a fabulous balance sheet. The debt is offset by their investment in a fracker. $3.40 book value.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 9, 2018

(A Top Pick March 23/17 - Down 16.4%.) This is outer stupidity. Talk later about this.

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(A Top Pick March 23/17 - Down 16.4%.) This is outer stupidity. Talk later about this.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 9, 2018

100% Canadian name. Trading at 2.9 times EBITDA. Trading at 20% free cash flow yield. 80% of their business is based off of strong WTI pricing on condensate. Difficult to explain when shares are down 30%. (Analysts’ price target is $6.40)

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100% Canadian name. Trading at 2.9 times EBITDA. Trading at 20% free cash flow yield. 80% of their business is based off of strong WTI pricing on condensate. Difficult to explain when shares are down 30%. (Analysts’ price target is $6.40)

WATCH
WATCH
February 5, 2018

Last year we formed a base and now we are heading down to it. These businesses can do extremely well if the energy sector picks up. $3.20 would be a place to step in.

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Last year we formed a base and now we are heading down to it. These businesses can do extremely well if the energy sector picks up. $3.20 would be a place to step in.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 23, 2018

He likes this because it has torque, and it is trading at a very cheap multiple. The fracing business in Canada has really been consolidated and is far less competitive than in the US. Trading at a very low valuation of about 3-3.5 times enterprise value to EBITDA. Has a really good balance sheet and will be generating free cash flow this year. This doesn't have any balance sheet concerns. (Analysts' price target is $6.50.)

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He likes this because it has torque, and it is trading at a very cheap multiple. The fracing business in Canada has really been consolidated and is far less competitive than in the US. Trading at a very low valuation of about 3-3.5 times enterprise value to EBITDA. Has a really good balance sheet and will be generating free cash flow this year. This doesn't have any balance sheet concerns. (Analysts' price target is $6.50.)

HOLD
HOLD
January 22, 2018

The services companies are collectively quite cheap by multiple and so is the whole energy E&P sector. Western Canadian Select has not moved as have other oil prices. If you had US exposure that would be better because then you would have un-trapped oil. Pipelines will not fix this for a couple of years.

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The services companies are collectively quite cheap by multiple and so is the whole energy E&P sector. Western Canadian Select has not moved as have other oil prices. If you had US exposure that would be better because then you would have un-trapped oil. Pipelines will not fix this for a couple of years.

WATCH
WATCH
January 18, 2018

He likes it. It is a long in three of his funds. It has good valuation. There is one particularly large seller and that has held back the price. He would like to see it stronger, but all of its peers are picking up good momentum. 16 times PE and a really solid balance sheet. It should get a pop when the last of the selling clears up.

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He likes it. It is a long in three of his funds. It has good valuation. There is one particularly large seller and that has held back the price. He would like to see it stronger, but all of its peers are picking up good momentum. 16 times PE and a really solid balance sheet. It should get a pop when the last of the selling clears up.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 5, 2018

(A Top Pick Jan 31/17. Down 16%.) Thinks the frac market, both in Canada and especially in the US, is and will remain undersupplied. There is very good upside in this.

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(A Top Pick Jan 31/17. Down 16%.) Thinks the frac market, both in Canada and especially in the US, is and will remain undersupplied. There is very good upside in this.

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