Trican Well Service Ltd.

TCW-T

(A Top Pick January 5/18 Down 52%) He exited this when light oil differentials widened and capital spending declined. Bidding has remained very hostile for their services. It is trading at a 10% discount to NAV and he thinks negative sentiment is almost at its worst. They are diverting free cashflow into share buybacks, so he thinks there is hope going forward in a $70 WTI world and a $10 differential.

Likes it a lot. He is still waiting to add it to his action alert list. Its metrics are excellent but tax loss season is coming and the price will come down. The company has been buying its stock back aggressively, at an average price of $3.47. The price keeps going down and the company has slowed down its buyback. With tax loss selling, he thinks the price could drop below $2. He would buy it himself for that price. He sees this as a $3.70 stock in late 2019 and an $8.50 stock 5 years later. It was $20 in 2014

(A Top Pick November 15/17 Down 46%) He exited energy services earlier this year. The E&Ps, he feels, are harbouring cash to survive, which has resulted in lower demand for the service sector. The company trades today at a trough PE and the company is paying down debt and buying back shares. He likes the management team strategy.

He was trying to buy some today. It is trading at a 15% free cash flow yield. They are buying back $85 million of stock. A Canadian producer is selling at the equivalent of $80 Canadian per barrel – this is a cash flow machine. The stock is undervalued and they are essentially debt free.

Very cheap, trading below book value. They are using their excess cash to buy back stock. As the fracking business picks up, this stock will benefit. This stock has a lot of upside. He has a 1 year target of $6.00 and a 3-5 year target of $12.00. A very attractive buy below $3.00.

The momentum may become positive soon. He was previously worried about the massive amount of debt, but they have dramatically improved the balance sheet. You might get a 10-15% appreciation in price over the next 6-12 months.

Sell or buy more? Has fairly strong support level at $2.90. Bad sign that dropped below that and continues to drop. Technicians shouldn’t average down. Significant resistance point at $2.80. Anyone who bought in last 2-3 years, is looking to get out. Everything is saying negative. Wouldn’t touch it. Be very cautious. There’s no indication of a bottom.

(A top pick July 19/17, down 21%) Is a pure play Canadian pressure pumper. Concerns were weak natural gas pricing and lowering of capital expense spending. They have been successful at share buybacks. Are being encouraged not to buy new equipment but continue to buy back stock. Trading at about 25% free cash flow yield.

Trican Well Services (TCW-T) vs. Trinidad Drilling (TDG-T). Trinidad is still going through strategic alternatives. The founder quit suddenly. Trinidad still has a large exposure to the Permian, so this is a detractor. Trican is pure play Canada and should work in its favour. He would take Trican over Trinidad

He likes it. He believes it has a $6 one year target. He is waiting because of concerns on the oil price. They have minimal debt. We are trading below book value. They are buying back a lot of shares. The buyback price suggests the company thinks their stock is cheap. When oil gets below $60 he thinks the stock will get down to $2.80 and it would be a buy then.

Trican Well vs. Birchcliff (BIR-T) Be wary of Trican fracking right now, how much extra do you need. Tough to be a fracker up north, with most of the activity in the 48 states.

He is bullish on natural gas and in the future he will be bullish on oil. Differentials are a problem, as is egress of the commodity. They are buying back stock right now. They have really no debt. He I warming up to the story.

(A Top Pick Nov 15/17, Down 32%) The concern was around the level of dry gas spending. He still thinks there is an opportunity for an upward revision later this year. Everyone seems to forget the uplift from the change in currency. This one has been a target of shorts but it unwound last Friday. You will be the recipient of a lot of free cash flow in forms like share buybacks.

Not a great looking chart. It is in a sideways trend and the highs are lower. He would prefer Calfrac, due to its better up trend. He could see this drop to $2.80 and would not be a buyer until it moved back above $3.50. (Analysts’ price target is $5)

He would favour shifting into a much bigger company than this one. Technically it is in a downtrend and it is not a peak period for the energy sector. He would not buy this one.

It's unlikely he'll buy this in the near future. It's wildly cyclical, so it's a trader's stock, not an investor's one. Profitability can swing a lot. He's a long-term, conservative investor. He can't buy-and-hold this.

The perception of weak natural gas pricing has held this stock back. If they report weak Q1 earnings, it may not be until the fall that they will be able to prove themselves. He thinks there is better opportunity trading E&P companies. In the services sector he has picked other horses.

He really likes this but has not moved it to his Action Alert list yet. Book value is $3.40, which is about where the stock is trading. It has a fabulous balance sheet. They have a little bit of debt, $83 million, but they own a position in Keane Energy which is worth much more than that, so this is effectively a debt-free company. They are the largest fracker in Canada. The stock is up about 20% from its lows of the last month because of the bounce. Wait until the stock drops again; he thinks it will go below $3.

(A Top Pick June 19, 2017. Down 16%). The entire pressure-pumping sector, including Trican, is completely undervalued. This company trades at 3x next year’s EBITDA. Mid-cycle valuations are closer to 4 or 4.5. The company has been spitting out high free cash flow, which has let them do $54 million in buybacks. When Shell makes its positive decision on an LNG terminal, which he expects this year, it will be very positive for Trican. He projects their free cash flow yield next year at 20%. He sold his position even though he likes the stock because he thinks that US pumpers are even more cheap than Trican. He can buy the US peers nearer 2.2 times EBITDA, compared to Trican’s 3x and they generate even better cash flow.

This stock has been a source of frustration for many investors. Recent earnings guidance has disappointed the market. Their margins have been eroded and they hold a lot of debt. He thinks this is getting closer to an entry.

This is on his coverage list but not yet on his recommended list. Book value is $3.47 compared to its price today of $2.85. The balance sheet is in good shape, their debts are relatively low ($83 million compared to 1.17 billion of equity, which he calls a “non-debt company”). They’re coming to their lows of the year. He likes the company a lot and he expects it to do much better than it did last year. However, if oil drops below $60, Trican will probably be hit a little more. He expects to add it to his action alert buy list in Q2. This company has traded on 2x book value a few times, during bull markets for oil. He thinks it can more than double over the next two years.

He likes the leadership and the balance sheet. They are doing stock buy-backs. Below $3 this is a great buy. They are the biggest fracker in Canada. Book value is $3.47 and it has traded 2.6 times book value. Be patient. He has a $12 target for 3-5 years.

(A Top Pick May 23/17, Down 27%) A pure play in Canadian pressure pumping. Still a big holding for him. Got penalized for concerns to their exposure to dry natural gas. But the market ignored their play in East Duvernay. This has been the poster child to Americans selling or shorting Canadian oil. A major plus: This company is buying back $54 million of stock with their net cash.

A very volatile industry. They are in fracking. A lot of their cost structure is labor. As the labor market becomes tighter it gets into their margins. Very difficult for these companies to get pricing pressure because it is an undifferentiated commodity.

They have a fabulous balance sheet. The debt is offset by their investment in a fracker. $3.40 book value.

(A Top Pick March 23/17 - Down 16.4%.) This is outer stupidity. Talk later about this.

100% Canadian name. Trading at 2.9 times EBITDA. Trading at 20% free cash flow yield. 80% of their business is based off of strong WTI pricing on condensate. Difficult to explain when shares are down 30%. (Analysts’ price target is $6.40)

Last year we formed a base and now we are heading down to it. These businesses can do extremely well if the energy sector picks up. $3.20 would be a place to step in.

He likes this because it has torque, and it is trading at a very cheap multiple. The fracing business in Canada has really been consolidated and is far less competitive than in the US. Trading at a very low valuation of about 3-3.5 times enterprise value to EBITDA. Has a really good balance sheet and will be generating free cash flow this year. This doesn't have any balance sheet concerns. (Analysts' price target is $6.50.)

The services companies are collectively quite cheap by multiple and so is the whole energy E&P sector. Western Canadian Select has not moved as have other oil prices. If you had US exposure that would be better because then you would have un-trapped oil. Pipelines will not fix this for a couple of years.

He likes it. It is a long in three of his funds. It has good valuation. There is one particularly large seller and that has held back the price. He would like to see it stronger, but all of its peers are picking up good momentum. 16 times PE and a really solid balance sheet. It should get a pop when the last of the selling clears up.

(A Top Pick Jan 31/17. Down 16%.) Thinks the frac market, both in Canada and especially in the US, is and will remain undersupplied. There is very good upside in this.

Extra service names are absolutely where the best risk/reward opportunities are. He's specifically focused on the fracers both Canada and the US. This is an area where pricing power remains very strong. Canada's ECO pricing is impacting pricing power, but he sees it sticking. Believes both Canada and the US will be undersupplied for pressure pumping for all of 2018, and likely heading into 2019 despite the concerns of weak natural gas prices. This company gives you almost pure exposure in Canada. You are paying a multiple that is about half its historical average because of this worry of overcapacity in Canada. He doesn't believe in that thesis. Sees about 50% upside in the shares. (Analysts' price target is $6.50.)

Just took over Canyon Energy Services. The company does fracing pressure pumping with fluids to crack the rocks to get the hydrocarbons out. These companies are poised to have a pretty good year in 2018, especially as oil prices are perking up. It looks pretty good going into the new year, but you are vulnerable to a collapse in oil prices with no dividend to back you up.

Over the last 2 years, the chart looks fairly promising in an up channel, but there is a big overhead supply going back over time. The stock is going nowhere, and will probably go sideways from here. There are probably better things to do.

He thinks it is should be bought in Q1 after a possible back off in oil. They have debt but shares in a US operation that offsets the debt. They had a fabulous quarter. It bottomed in early 2016. The balance sheet is now clean and they could make acquisitions. A non-compete clause with an acquisition expires in 2018.

This gives you pure Canadian exposure in a market that is undersupplied. In their conference call, they said they had visibility through to break up, which would be Q2. All their equipment is spoken for through all 2018.

It is flat but had a bit of a recovery with the whole group. If he was going to play this group he would choose this or one other. He wants to see another quarter (first week in Feb) and that may be when he gets back in.