Trican Well Service Ltd. | StockChase
163
Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T)

Last Price Recorded: $3.7200 on 2017-12-15

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Aug 2001

oil/gas field services
163
Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T)

Last Price Recorded: $3.7200 on 2017-12-15

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Aug 2001

oil/gas field services

Trican Well Service Ltd.


Signal Opinion Expert
TOP PICK

This gives you pure Canadian exposure in a market that is undersupplied. In their conference call, they said they had visibility through to break up, which would be Q2. All their equipment is spoken for through all 2018. 

oil/gas field services

This gives you pure Canadian exposure in a market that is undersupplied. In their conference call, they said they had visibility through to break up, which would be Q2. All their equipment is spoken for through all 2018. 

oil/gas field services
Eric Nuttall

Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners...

PricePrice
$4.560
Owned Owned
Yes

WATCH

It is flat but had a bit of a recovery with the whole group.  If he was going to play this group he would choose this or one other.  He wants to see another quarter (first week in Feb) and that may be when he gets back in.

oil/gas field services

It is flat but had a bit of a recovery with the whole group.  If he was going to play this group he would choose this or one other.  He wants to see another quarter (first week in Feb) and that may be when he gets back in.

oil/gas field services
Bruce Campbell (1)

President, Campbell and Lee Inv...

PricePrice
$5.060
Owned Owned
No

DON'T BUY
Trican Well Service Ltd.(TCW-T) 

September 18, 2017

Came off dramatically as oil prices came off in 2015-2016. He typically doesn’t like oil services or energy related stocks, simply because they don’t have the ROE profile he is looking for. Would prefer Pason Systems (PSI-T) or Badger (BAD-T) instead.

oil/gas field services

Came off dramatically as oil prices came off in 2015-2016. He typically doesn’t like oil services or energy related stocks, simply because they don’t have the ROE profile he is looking for. Would prefer Pason Systems (PSI-T) or Badger (BAD-T) instead.

oil/gas field services
Jason Del Vicario

Portfolio Manager, HollisWealth...

PricePrice
$3.840
Owned Owned
No

COMMENT
Trican Well Service Ltd.(TCW-T) 

September 15, 2017

Pricing is going up and demand is nearing a record high. They are at 100% utilization of all the equipment that they can man. They have demand for 3 more spreads, and can’t find people to actually work on it. This shows how tight this market is at a fairly crappy commodity price, where you have weak gas prices. Thinks this stock next year, can EBITDA $300 million. Trading at 4X EV to EBITDA on 2018, where it usually trades at 7 or 7.5 times, so still sees it as a $6-$7 stock. He likes this company very, very much.

oil/gas field services

Pricing is going up and demand is nearing a record high. They are at 100% utilization of all the equipment that they can man. They have demand for 3 more spreads, and can’t find people to actually work on it. This shows how tight this market is at a fairly crappy commodity price, where you have weak gas prices. Thinks this stock next year, can EBITDA $300 million. Trading at 4X EV to EBITDA on 2018, where it usually trades at 7 or 7.5 times, so still sees it as a $6-$7 stock. He likes this company very, very much.

oil/gas field services
Eric Nuttall

Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners...

PricePrice
$3.900
Owned Owned
Unknown

WAIT

He likes the service sector, but if he is right and the price of oil is going down below $40, these stocks get hurt more. They are high beta securities. This company has a nice investment in Kean, the US assets, which almost equals the amount of debt they have. At the end of Q1, BV was $2.62. Feels this is going to be very attractive in the next cycle. Feels the stock could come down below $2.

oil/gas field services

He likes the service sector, but if he is right and the price of oil is going down below $40, these stocks get hurt more. They are high beta securities. This company has a nice investment in Kean, the US assets, which almost equals the amount of debt they have. At the end of Q1, BV was $2.62. Feels this is going to be very attractive in the next cycle. Feels the stock could come down below $2.

oil/gas field services
Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

PricePrice
$3.760
Owned Owned
No

TOP PICK

Canada is materially undersupplied for pressure pumping demand. Pricing will continue to go up, and yet these stocks are selling off in the belief that while crude oil has checked back, companies are losing pricing power. That is not correct. This company can cash flow $300 million next year. Where the stock price is trading at, it is discounting by about $150 million of cash flow next year, not $300 million. If he is correct, there is 75%-100% upside in the stock. A stock price of $6-$7 is not unreasonable. (Analysts’ price target is $5.88.)

oil/gas field services

Canada is materially undersupplied for pressure pumping demand. Pricing will continue to go up, and yet these stocks are selling off in the belief that while crude oil has checked back, companies are losing pricing power. That is not correct. This company can cash flow $300 million next year. Where the stock price is trading at, it is discounting by about $150 million of cash flow next year, not $300 million. If he is correct, there is 75%-100% upside in the stock. A stock price of $6-$7 is not unreasonable. (Analysts’ price target is $5.88.)

oil/gas field services
Eric Nuttall

Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners...

PricePrice
$3.700
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

If the underlying commodity price improves, that should be beneficial. At the moment, earnings estimates are for $.04 in 2017, a pretty pricey PE multiple. This is expected to improve to $.27 in 2018 which gives a 12 multiple, and a $.53 multiple for 2019 giving a 7 PE, which becomes interesting. It looks like a reasonable bet.

oil/gas field services

If the underlying commodity price improves, that should be beneficial. At the moment, earnings estimates are for $.04 in 2017, a pretty pricey PE multiple. This is expected to improve to $.27 in 2018 which gives a 12 multiple, and a $.53 multiple for 2019 giving a 7 PE, which becomes interesting. It looks like a reasonable bet.

oil/gas field services
Robert McWhirter

President, Selective Asset Mana...

PricePrice
$3.400
Owned Owned
Unknown

TOP PICK

*Long* (Pairs trade with a Short on Pason Systems (PSI-T)). An area he likes in energy services. The pressure pumpers and fracers are the ones that are actually making money at the moment. The stock is cheap. He likes management and the merger they just did. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $6.)

oil/gas field services

*Long* (Pairs trade with a Short on Pason Systems (PSI-T)). An area he likes in energy services. The pressure pumpers and fracers are the ones that are actually making money at the moment. The stock is cheap. He likes management and the merger they just did. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $6.)

oil/gas field services
Daniel Lloyd

Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Ma...

PricePrice
$3.440
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

This, along with all the other drillers, has been a tough one. On a pure price momentum basis, it has held up better than a lot of its exploration energy peers. It has the same problem that a lot of energy companies have. Not cheap on some of the measures he looks at. The whole sector needs to start earning money for him to get interested.

oil/gas field services

This, along with all the other drillers, has been a tough one. On a pure price momentum basis, it has held up better than a lot of its exploration energy peers. It has the same problem that a lot of energy companies have. Not cheap on some of the measures he looks at. The whole sector needs to start earning money for him to get interested.

oil/gas field services
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$3.410
Owned Owned
No

COMMENT

In the process of integrating Canyon, and will be the largest fracing company in Canada. A very high beta stock that does very well when you have big swings in the cycle. BV is $2.62. Had an operating profit in Q1 of $23 million versus a loss of 26 million in the prior year.

oil/gas field services

In the process of integrating Canyon, and will be the largest fracing company in Canada. A very high beta stock that does very well when you have big swings in the cycle. BV is $2.62. Had an operating profit in Q1 of $23 million versus a loss of 26 million in the prior year.

oil/gas field services
Josef Schachter

President, Schachter Asset Mana...

PricePrice
$4.240
Owned Owned
No

TOP PICK

Thinks the market is completely asleep in terms of their earning capability. Pricing is going up quarter after quarter, and their equipment is fully utilized for the rest of this year. They have a merger with Canyon Services (FCR-T) pretty soon. Prices are increasing virtually every day. He sees extremely good upside on a stock that has been out of favour. At the same time, you get the hidden optionality with their remaining interest in Kean (?). (Analysts’ price target is $6.)

oil/gas field services

Thinks the market is completely asleep in terms of their earning capability. Pricing is going up quarter after quarter, and their equipment is fully utilized for the rest of this year. They have a merger with Canyon Services (FCR-T) pretty soon. Prices are increasing virtually every day. He sees extremely good upside on a stock that has been out of favour. At the same time, you get the hidden optionality with their remaining interest in Kean (?). (Analysts’ price target is $6.)

oil/gas field services
Eric Nuttall

Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners...

PricePrice
$4.420
Owned Owned
Yes

DON'T BUY

The sector has been doing some strange things lately. This normally does quite well from late January right through until May of each year, so we have reached the end of the period of seasonal strength. The stock is in a downward trend, at a time when you normally expect it to see positive seasonality. This is the time when you no longer want to be involved, either seasonally or technically, with the stock.

oil/gas field services

The sector has been doing some strange things lately. This normally does quite well from late January right through until May of each year, so we have reached the end of the period of seasonal strength. The stock is in a downward trend, at a time when you normally expect it to see positive seasonality. This is the time when you no longer want to be involved, either seasonally or technically, with the stock.

oil/gas field services
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$4.060
Owned Owned
Unknown

TOP PICK

They will now be above the $ billion market cap and it opens up to a lot more buyers and can get index inclusion.  In the US we are talking 25% quarter over quarter price increases.  (Analysts’ target: $6.50).

oil/gas field services

They will now be above the $ billion market cap and it opens up to a lot more buyers and can get index inclusion.  In the US we are talking 25% quarter over quarter price increases.  (Analysts’ target: $6.50).

oil/gas field services
Eric Nuttall

Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners...

PricePrice
$3.660
Owned Owned
Yes

TOP PICK

They monetize a portion of their US former operations, which is now in a public company called Keane. The market has been over penalizing the value of that asset, and he expects another $2.10 of future value. If you strip off the value for Keane, the stock is trading at about 4.3X next year’s EBITDA. He thinks they can EBITDA $150 million. If you put a 7.5X multiple on that, he gets over a $7 share price, a 50% upside. (Analysts’ price target is $5.77.)

oil/gas field services

They monetize a portion of their US former operations, which is now in a public company called Keane. The market has been over penalizing the value of that asset, and he expects another $2.10 of future value. If you strip off the value for Keane, the stock is trading at about 4.3X next year’s EBITDA. He thinks they can EBITDA $150 million. If you put a 7.5X multiple on that, he gets over a $7 share price, a 50% upside. (Analysts’ price target is $5.77.)

oil/gas field services
Eric Nuttall

Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners...

PricePrice
$4.890
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

A leveraged call on oil. Of the entire service complex, the 2 areas that will tighten the fastest are the frac sands as #1 and pressure pumpers as #2. At $2.15, this stock is very attractive and has been picking away at this in the last month or so.

oil/gas field services

A leveraged call on oil. Of the entire service complex, the 2 areas that will tighten the fastest are the frac sands as #1 and pressure pumpers as #2. At $2.15, this stock is very attractive and has been picking away at this in the last month or so.

oil/gas field services
Eric Nuttall

Senior Portfolio Manager, Ninepoint Partners...

PricePrice
$2.150
Owned Owned
Yes

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