Transalta Corp

TA-T

TSE:TA

8.40
0.09 (1.06%)
TransAlta Corporation is an electricity power generator and wholesale marketing company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. It is a privately owned corporation and its shares are traded publicly.
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Analysis and Opinions about TA-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
January 28, 2020
Has a $12 price target. Brookfield owns a portion and will buy more. Its ESG score has risen. It's a turnaround story and underowned. Good for renewable exposure. (Analysts’ price target is $10.97)
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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
January 28, 2020
Has a $12 price target. Brookfield owns a portion and will buy more. Its ESG score has risen. It's a turnaround story and underowned. Good for renewable exposure. (Analysts’ price target is $10.97)
BUY
BUY
December 11, 2019
It does not pay much of a yield, so it generally is ignored. They are modeling 6% growth in cash flow per share. The balance sheet is in good shape. They are buying back shares. Not his favorite name, but has upside to $11.
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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
December 11, 2019
It does not pay much of a yield, so it generally is ignored. They are modeling 6% growth in cash flow per share. The balance sheet is in good shape. They are buying back shares. Not his favorite name, but has upside to $11.
HOLD
HOLD
November 29, 2019
It has had a good bounce this year. Brookfield has been brought in (now holding 5% of the stock) and holds a couple of board seats. The true value is $11-$12, he thinks. He likes the hydro generation assets on the renewable trend. Yield 2.5%
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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
November 29, 2019
It has had a good bounce this year. Brookfield has been brought in (now holding 5% of the stock) and holds a couple of board seats. The true value is $11-$12, he thinks. He likes the hydro generation assets on the renewable trend. Yield 2.5%
SELL
SELL
November 18, 2019
He prefers ALA-T to this one at these levels. Nothing is going to move this one materially higher in the next while.
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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
November 18, 2019
He prefers ALA-T to this one at these levels. Nothing is going to move this one materially higher in the next while.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 25, 2019
(A Top Pick Oct 03/18, Up 11%) Doing what it is supposed to do. Dull and boring. He likes their hydro assets and Brookfield has bought into a convertible bond, equivalent to about 5% of the stock outstanding and may add another 5% in the future. Management wants to buy back stock. It should be a $9-$10 stock.
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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
October 25, 2019
(A Top Pick Oct 03/18, Up 11%) Doing what it is supposed to do. Dull and boring. He likes their hydro assets and Brookfield has bought into a convertible bond, equivalent to about 5% of the stock outstanding and may add another 5% in the future. Management wants to buy back stock. It should be a $9-$10 stock.
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
September 16, 2019

It's been smashed in the past five years, dropping from the mid-teens to around $5-6, and cut their dividend. They made some bad calls when Alberta de-regulated and they let their transmission lines go. But they have turned around. The dividend could rise in coming years and it could move to $12. He prefers Capital Power.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
September 16, 2019

It's been smashed in the past five years, dropping from the mid-teens to around $5-6, and cut their dividend. They made some bad calls when Alberta de-regulated and they let their transmission lines go. But they have turned around. The dividend could rise in coming years and it could move to $12. He prefers Capital Power.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 23, 2019
(A Top Pick May 03/18, Up 30%) They did a good job of highlighting value in their hydro assets. They are buying back stock but he would prefer they increased the dividend more. This is a good entry point again.
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(A Top Pick May 03/18, Up 30%) They did a good job of highlighting value in their hydro assets. They are buying back stock but he would prefer they increased the dividend more. This is a good entry point again.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 6, 2019
It is difficult. It is southern Alberta. It has been in transition for a bit and still seems to be. He would not feel comfortable in the sector until things look better in Alberta.
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It is difficult. It is southern Alberta. It has been in transition for a bit and still seems to be. He would not feel comfortable in the sector until things look better in Alberta.
BUY
BUY
March 18, 2019
This hurt a lot of people. Now they are cheap, trading at 15.1% free-cash yield. He sees more upside 25-50% though nowhere near to $30.
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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
March 18, 2019
This hurt a lot of people. Now they are cheap, trading at 15.1% free-cash yield. He sees more upside 25-50% though nowhere near to $30.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 17, 2019
Over a number of years are making a transition from coal to natural gas fired power plants. He would prefer to look at the renewables or NPI-T.
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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
January 17, 2019
Over a number of years are making a transition from coal to natural gas fired power plants. He would prefer to look at the renewables or NPI-T.
BUY
BUY
October 22, 2018

It has not done very well. He also bought some of the preferreds. He thinks they are moving in the right direction. The dividend is pretty secure. They have a long way to go to complete their turnaround. There may be tax loss selling at the end of the year but many have already taken their loss.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
October 22, 2018

It has not done very well. He also bought some of the preferreds. He thinks they are moving in the right direction. The dividend is pretty secure. They have a long way to go to complete their turnaround. There may be tax loss selling at the end of the year but many have already taken their loss.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
October 3, 2018

There is deep value in this name, owning 60% of TransAlta Renewables – the share value of which equals the market value of TA-T on its own. They own 9% of the Alberta hydro market. The new PPAs on the hydro assets, which act as backup for wind and solar, could help propel this company to a double in the next three years. Yield 2.2%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.25)

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
October 3, 2018

There is deep value in this name, owning 60% of TransAlta Renewables – the share value of which equals the market value of TA-T on its own. They own 9% of the Alberta hydro market. The new PPAs on the hydro assets, which act as backup for wind and solar, could help propel this company to a double in the next three years. Yield 2.2%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.25)

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 28, 2018

Has been a terrible place to be. Long-term decline. It’s destroyed wealth. Market’s trading off of underlying ownership of Transalta Renewables. Pays a small dividend. Washed out, fairly decent value in it.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
September 28, 2018

Has been a terrible place to be. Long-term decline. It’s destroyed wealth. Market’s trading off of underlying ownership of Transalta Renewables. Pays a small dividend. Washed out, fairly decent value in it.

WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
May 23, 2018

It has a good dividend. The consolidation this year is actually pretty good, given the utility sector performance as a whole. This is in a good spot to begin to go higher. The quarterly dividend had been cut from $0.29 per share to $0.04, but this is already factored in by the market. Yield 2%.

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It has a good dividend. The consolidation this year is actually pretty good, given the utility sector performance as a whole. This is in a good spot to begin to go higher. The quarterly dividend had been cut from $0.29 per share to $0.04, but this is already factored in by the market. Yield 2%.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
May 3, 2018

It is not the same company of 5 years ago. All the headwinds are now tailwinds. They are becoming cash flow positive and paying down debt. It is quite attractive, being a utility. (Analysts’ target: $8.20).

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It is not the same company of 5 years ago. All the headwinds are now tailwinds. They are becoming cash flow positive and paying down debt. It is quite attractive, being a utility. (Analysts’ target: $8.20).

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 24, 2017

(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Up 28%.) *Long* (Pairs trade with a Short on TRP-T.) He still has both positions on.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
November 24, 2017

(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Up 28%.) *Long* (Pairs trade with a Short on TRP-T.) He still has both positions on.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 2, 2017

It has had a nice recovery based on the bottom but not when you look at the high of a couple of years ago. They have the renewable side and it used to be worth more than TA-T corp. That imbalance got fixed. They got into trouble on the balance sheet. He would prefer something more stable.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
November 2, 2017

It has had a nice recovery based on the bottom but not when you look at the high of a couple of years ago. They have the renewable side and it used to be worth more than TA-T corp. That imbalance got fixed. They got into trouble on the balance sheet. He would prefer something more stable.

HOLD
HOLD
August 3, 2017

Alberta shut down its coal fired electrical generation plants. Contracts were ended. Australia has some issues for them too. They have cut their costs down and re-focused. There used to be funding issues. They are fine now, but not the best in their sector. He leans more to interpipes. There is clearly not a dividend cut coming. They are not overlevered.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
August 3, 2017

Alberta shut down its coal fired electrical generation plants. Contracts were ended. Australia has some issues for them too. They have cut their costs down and re-focused. There used to be funding issues. They are fine now, but not the best in their sector. He leans more to interpipes. There is clearly not a dividend cut coming. They are not overlevered.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 27, 2017

You buy this because of its assets and the ability of those assets to generate cash flow. Feels the Alberta electric generation market is still subject to a lot of question marks. He would rather own wind power in Europe.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
June 27, 2017

You buy this because of its assets and the ability of those assets to generate cash flow. Feels the Alberta electric generation market is still subject to a lot of question marks. He would rather own wind power in Europe.

COMMENT
COMMENT
June 1, 2017

This has struggled over the last couple of years as it got hurt by the environmental movement and the NDP government in Alberta wanting to shut down all coal producing energy assets. They are migrating from coal to natural gas and have 2 plants, Sundance 1 and Sundance 2 that are coal fired, which are going to close by the end of this year. That hurts their bottom line. Also, for the last number of years, they have been over levered. Their bond rating has always hovered below investment grade or just barely above it. Thinks it will be in the penalty box for another 6 months to 1 year because they don’t have the greatest of assets.

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This has struggled over the last couple of years as it got hurt by the environmental movement and the NDP government in Alberta wanting to shut down all coal producing energy assets. They are migrating from coal to natural gas and have 2 plants, Sundance 1 and Sundance 2 that are coal fired, which are going to close by the end of this year. That hurts their bottom line. Also, for the last number of years, they have been over levered. Their bond rating has always hovered below investment grade or just barely above it. Thinks it will be in the penalty box for another 6 months to 1 year because they don’t have the greatest of assets.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 9, 2017

This, by default, is a contrarian company that happens to be in the utility space. This is coming back. They’ve had to do some major cost cutting. They’re converting some of their coal plants to natural gas in order to avoid some carbon tax. The beauty of utilities is that they do generate cash flow. The question becomes, how sustainable is that cash flow. Feels you can do better elsewhere.

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This, by default, is a contrarian company that happens to be in the utility space. This is coming back. They’ve had to do some major cost cutting. They’re converting some of their coal plants to natural gas in order to avoid some carbon tax. The beauty of utilities is that they do generate cash flow. The question becomes, how sustainable is that cash flow. Feels you can do better elsewhere.

HOLD
HOLD
April 3, 2017

He likes the sector. He thinks it looks okay. It broke out and came back to do a test. There is some upside.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
April 3, 2017

He likes the sector. He thinks it looks okay. It broke out and came back to do a test. There is some upside.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
March 30, 2017

(Top Pick Apr 6/16, Up 35%) Cheap valuation. They have an agreement with the Alberta government on their coal. Brookfield has been buying up similar assets.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
March 30, 2017

(Top Pick Apr 6/16, Up 35%) Cheap valuation. They have an agreement with the Alberta government on their coal. Brookfield has been buying up similar assets.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 24, 2017

A utility type stock, and is fully priced at this level. It has had an excellent run this year. He questions if the yield is sustainable on a longer-term basis.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
February 24, 2017

A utility type stock, and is fully priced at this level. It has had an excellent run this year. He questions if the yield is sustainable on a longer-term basis.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 14, 2017

Cut their dividend pretty significantly about 1.5 years ago, and there isn’t really a lot of catalysts in the stock. A coal fired power production largely with some CPA’s that are rolling off over time, and then they will ultimately need to replace their fleet with natural gas, renewables or some combination of the 2. With a yield at 2.1%, and without a lot of growth, there are better options elsewhere.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
February 14, 2017

Cut their dividend pretty significantly about 1.5 years ago, and there isn’t really a lot of catalysts in the stock. A coal fired power production largely with some CPA’s that are rolling off over time, and then they will ultimately need to replace their fleet with natural gas, renewables or some combination of the 2. With a yield at 2.1%, and without a lot of growth, there are better options elsewhere.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 10, 2017

A utility company that he would not own. You own utility companies for slow, steady growth, steady rising dividends so that you can sleep at nights. This has not been that kind of company. Its operations have been troubled. Management has done some questionable things.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
February 10, 2017

A utility company that he would not own. You own utility companies for slow, steady growth, steady rising dividends so that you can sleep at nights. This has not been that kind of company. Its operations have been troubled. Management has done some questionable things.

HOLD
HOLD
January 20, 2017

Their legacy business was coal which experienced some difficulty, and was on the way to being shut down in Alberta. The issue was, how much will they get for these legacy assets. Also, they wisely decided to set up a renewable subsidiary where they still own a good chunk of it. This has grown quite nicely. Thinks the CEO is doing a decent job.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
January 20, 2017

Their legacy business was coal which experienced some difficulty, and was on the way to being shut down in Alberta. The issue was, how much will they get for these legacy assets. Also, they wisely decided to set up a renewable subsidiary where they still own a good chunk of it. This has grown quite nicely. Thinks the CEO is doing a decent job.

COMMENT
COMMENT
December 9, 2016

Reached an agreement with Alberta for transition payments of about $97 million a year from 2017 to 2030. That news was better than expected and he upgraded it to a $7.50 target. It is a little higher than that, but still pretty cheap on a free cash yield. Trading at 15.3 versus its peers at lower levels. Its payout ratio on a free cash flow is 14%. He would prefer one with a bigger yield and one with the drop downs, Transalta Renewables (RNW-T).

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
December 9, 2016

Reached an agreement with Alberta for transition payments of about $97 million a year from 2017 to 2030. That news was better than expected and he upgraded it to a $7.50 target. It is a little higher than that, but still pretty cheap on a free cash yield. Trading at 15.3 versus its peers at lower levels. Its payout ratio on a free cash flow is 14%. He would prefer one with a bigger yield and one with the drop downs, Transalta Renewables (RNW-T).

COMMENT
COMMENT
November 30, 2016

Preferreds. The settlement of the energy issue last week has been very favourable. This company is in good shape, because a lot of their existing coal capacity can also convert into natural gas, so as they meet the capacity markets in Alberta that have been created, that is a plus for them. As to preferreds, people own them for 1) income and 2) for the higher position on the balance sheet. It has a 7% yield, but in 2017, that will reset to 3.1% above whatever the 5-year yield is at the time. The rate-reset game that has been going on in the Canadian preferred market since 2008, has been very painful.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
November 30, 2016

Preferreds. The settlement of the energy issue last week has been very favourable. This company is in good shape, because a lot of their existing coal capacity can also convert into natural gas, so as they meet the capacity markets in Alberta that have been created, that is a plus for them. As to preferreds, people own them for 1) income and 2) for the higher position on the balance sheet. It has a 7% yield, but in 2017, that will reset to 3.1% above whatever the 5-year yield is at the time. The rate-reset game that has been going on in the Canadian preferred market since 2008, has been very painful.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 28, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Has had a good run lately, but given that it is a utility you don’t want to be here.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
November 28, 2016

(Market Call Minute.) Has had a good run lately, but given that it is a utility you don’t want to be here.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 9, 2016

Long half of pairs trade (Top Pick Sept 15/16, Down 6.65%) He still likes it a lot and it did well until a couple of days ago. It is a deeply undervalued utility.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
November 9, 2016

Long half of pairs trade (Top Pick Sept 15/16, Down 6.65%) He still likes it a lot and it did well until a couple of days ago. It is a deeply undervalued utility.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 3, 2016

It is not just the stable generator of electricity any more. Alberta has to go through a full resolution of what they are going to do with coal plants. The dividend has been cut to virtually nothing.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
October 3, 2016

It is not just the stable generator of electricity any more. Alberta has to go through a full resolution of what they are going to do with coal plants. The dividend has been cut to virtually nothing.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 21, 2016

There is too much uncertainty about the Alberta policy vis-à-vis stranded assets, and what compensation they will or won’t get. Until that uncertainty is removed, he would be very careful.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
September 21, 2016

There is too much uncertainty about the Alberta policy vis-à-vis stranded assets, and what compensation they will or won’t get. Until that uncertainty is removed, he would be very careful.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 15, 2016

*Long* (Pairs trade with a short on TRP-T). TA-T he was buying as long as a couple of days ago and TRP-T shorting the week before. The ownership of TA renewable in TA-T is worth $7.70 of the share price. At this point the rest of TA-T has a negative value. TRP-T is incredibly expensive. They have excessive debt. They are about to cut the toll of their gas pipeline by 40% which is a major part of their revenue.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
September 15, 2016

*Long* (Pairs trade with a short on TRP-T). TA-T he was buying as long as a couple of days ago and TRP-T shorting the week before. The ownership of TA renewable in TA-T is worth $7.70 of the share price. At this point the rest of TA-T has a negative value. TRP-T is incredibly expensive. They have excessive debt. They are about to cut the toll of their gas pipeline by 40% which is a major part of their revenue.

PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
July 14, 2016

If you own, he would suggest you lighten up over time. Feels the worst is over. The problem with the company is that power prices in Alberta were weak for some time, and management wasn’t considered to be top of the heap. He would suggest you switch over time to something like Canadian Utilities (CU-T) Fortis (FTS-T) or Emera (EMA-T).

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
July 14, 2016

If you own, he would suggest you lighten up over time. Feels the worst is over. The problem with the company is that power prices in Alberta were weak for some time, and management wasn’t considered to be top of the heap. He would suggest you switch over time to something like Canadian Utilities (CU-T) Fortis (FTS-T) or Emera (EMA-T).

WAIT
WAIT
June 30, 2016

This company has gone through a lot of trouble. He took a loss on it. The whole space has done well. The chart shows a nice upward trend from January, and is now facing some resistance at around $7. There will be resistance again at $10. It looks like it currently wants to go sideways. Until you see it get above $6.75-$7 range, he wouldn’t add to your holdings.

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Transalta Corp (TA-T)
June 30, 2016

This company has gone through a lot of trouble. He took a loss on it. The whole space has done well. The chart shows a nice upward trend from January, and is now facing some resistance at around $7. There will be resistance again at $10. It looks like it currently wants to go sideways. Until you see it get above $6.75-$7 range, he wouldn’t add to your holdings.