Rogers Sugar Inc

RSI-T

TSE:RSI

4.77
0.00 (0.00%)
Rogers Sugar Income Fund is the income trust that was established in October 1997 to act as a holding company for Lantic Sugar Limited that operates in Eastern Canada and Rogers Sugar Ltd. that is based in Western Canada.
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Analysis and Opinions about RSI-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 21, 2014

Not a growth company, this is a “steady Eddie” dividend payer. The problem is that the last 4-5 quarters have been lousy and higher natural gas prices have affected them. There is a really weak demand for sugar. They are in a cutthroat competition for pricing. He owns convertible debentures which is the way he plays it.

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Not a growth company, this is a “steady Eddie” dividend payer. The problem is that the last 4-5 quarters have been lousy and higher natural gas prices have affected them. There is a really weak demand for sugar. They are in a cutthroat competition for pricing. He owns convertible debentures which is the way he plays it.

HOLD
HOLD
May 5, 2014

Is the dividend safe? This is close. Sold his holdings at about $6.50 and got back in at around $5. The trouble is that the inputs are natural gas. Also, lost some Mexican contracts. Also, the overpayment of dividends is getting into the mix. If they cut their dividend, they are going to be in trouble because of the share price. It would be more sustainable. but in this type of business, you just want to see a quiet type of company. He would be a buyer if it got a little cheaper.

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Is the dividend safe? This is close. Sold his holdings at about $6.50 and got back in at around $5. The trouble is that the inputs are natural gas. Also, lost some Mexican contracts. Also, the overpayment of dividends is getting into the mix. If they cut their dividend, they are going to be in trouble because of the share price. It would be more sustainable. but in this type of business, you just want to see a quiet type of company. He would be a buyer if it got a little cheaper.

BUY
BUY
April 25, 2014

(Market Call Minute) Management has been buying their stock. It is a Canadian dollar play.

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(Market Call Minute) Management has been buying their stock. It is a Canadian dollar play.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 7, 2014

The big drop in February was because of an earnings miss. The one thing this has going for it is a little base being built. If it holds at around $4.50-$4.45, that would be good. There is going to be a lot of overhead resistance not far away. If you own, he would use a Stop of around $4.30.

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The big drop in February was because of an earnings miss. The one thing this has going for it is a little base being built. If it holds at around $4.50-$4.45, that would be good. There is going to be a lot of overhead resistance not far away. If you own, he would use a Stop of around $4.30.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 27, 2014

Has gone down and stabilized over the past few weeks. Reported an awful 4th quarter. Analysts are concerned they could cut the dividend and he is as well. A dividend cut has already been priced into the stock. He sold his holdings and bought their convertibles. Management has been buying back shares.

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Has gone down and stabilized over the past few weeks. Reported an awful 4th quarter. Analysts are concerned they could cut the dividend and he is as well. A dividend cut has already been priced into the stock. He sold his holdings and bought their convertibles. Management has been buying back shares.

PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
March 18, 2014

Chart shows an uptrend channel running from 2009 up to the end of 2012. Believes this is probably sensitive to natural gas prices. You have to decide if the natural gas run is over. He expects the big advance of natural gas is now behind us so this is probably okay at this price but he wouldn’t add at this price, and if you own, he would consider reducing your holdings. 8% dividend yield.

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Chart shows an uptrend channel running from 2009 up to the end of 2012. Believes this is probably sensitive to natural gas prices. You have to decide if the natural gas run is over. He expects the big advance of natural gas is now behind us so this is probably okay at this price but he wouldn’t add at this price, and if you own, he would consider reducing your holdings. 8% dividend yield.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 4, 2014

Sugar is a commodity. He looks for stable businesses. Unbelievably stable business plan. Nat Gas is an input. However, now they are losing a few contracts. They won’t be able to get them back. This isn’t a business that can grow. He can’t figure out why they lost the contract so is standing back.

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Sugar is a commodity. He looks for stable businesses. Unbelievably stable business plan. Nat Gas is an input. However, now they are losing a few contracts. They won’t be able to get them back. This isn’t a business that can grow. He can’t figure out why they lost the contract so is standing back.

WAIT
WAIT
March 3, 2014

We need to see a little more price action and see if the base starts to build again. It’s too early to tell if a base is going to build.

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We need to see a little more price action and see if the base starts to build again. It’s too early to tell if a base is going to build.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 21, 2014

Nat Gas is one of their major costs. This company has not been a favourite of his. MX-T in contrast can pass on more of their cost increase in gas to customers. RSI has fierce competition off-shore. Not a great area long term.

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Rogers Sugar Inc (RSI-T)
February 21, 2014

Nat Gas is one of their major costs. This company has not been a favourite of his. MX-T in contrast can pass on more of their cost increase in gas to customers. RSI has fierce competition off-shore. Not a great area long term.

HOLD
HOLD
February 11, 2014

Owns a little bit of this. Numbers last quarter were not good. This is supposed to be a boring company that immunizes its expenses, which is mostly natural gas which is creeping up. They also lost a big customer. Feels the distribution is safe for now. Has very good cash flow, but the competitive nature has really changed over the last couple of years.

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Rogers Sugar Inc (RSI-T)
February 11, 2014

Owns a little bit of this. Numbers last quarter were not good. This is supposed to be a boring company that immunizes its expenses, which is mostly natural gas which is creeping up. They also lost a big customer. Feels the distribution is safe for now. Has very good cash flow, but the competitive nature has really changed over the last couple of years.

HOLD
HOLD
February 5, 2014

Had a whiz-bang of a year in 2012 and then the last 4-5 quarters have been atrocious. In the past 2 years, they have been able to export sugar outside North America and that has been great for them. This business has no pricing power and has no growth and is dependent on GDP growth. Feels the dividend is safe for this year. Have a look at their 5.7% convertible bond which gives you almost as much yield as the stock, but with a little more safety.

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Rogers Sugar Inc (RSI-T)
February 5, 2014

Had a whiz-bang of a year in 2012 and then the last 4-5 quarters have been atrocious. In the past 2 years, they have been able to export sugar outside North America and that has been great for them. This business has no pricing power and has no growth and is dependent on GDP growth. Feels the dividend is safe for this year. Have a look at their 5.7% convertible bond which gives you almost as much yield as the stock, but with a little more safety.

WAIT
WAIT
February 4, 2014

Last quarter was quite rough. They didn’t meet estimates and their guidance wasn’t that great. A couple of brokers downgraded the stock to “underperform” and even an outright Sell. Cash flow is still there. Paid a $0.39 special dividend last year, so for them to kind of change fortunes that fast, feels the stock reaction was a little bit too much. Cyclical business. Thinks long-term it is okay but waiting for the volume to pick up is probably the best strategy.

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Rogers Sugar Inc (RSI-T)
February 4, 2014

Last quarter was quite rough. They didn’t meet estimates and their guidance wasn’t that great. A couple of brokers downgraded the stock to “underperform” and even an outright Sell. Cash flow is still there. Paid a $0.39 special dividend last year, so for them to kind of change fortunes that fast, feels the stock reaction was a little bit too much. Cyclical business. Thinks long-term it is okay but waiting for the volume to pick up is probably the best strategy.

WATCH
WATCH
January 3, 2014

Sugar is in a period of seasonal strength right now. Runs from November through to February, basically the times of your key holidays such as Halloween, Christmas, Valentine’s Day and Easter. Not seeing too much strength in this. Pushing up against the declining trend line, but, you want to see it break out above the trend line in order to get excited. Wait for it to break out and then pursue it.

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Rogers Sugar Inc (RSI-T)
January 3, 2014

Sugar is in a period of seasonal strength right now. Runs from November through to February, basically the times of your key holidays such as Halloween, Christmas, Valentine’s Day and Easter. Not seeing too much strength in this. Pushing up against the declining trend line, but, you want to see it break out above the trend line in order to get excited. Wait for it to break out and then pursue it.

WATCH
WATCH
December 18, 2013

It is trying to base. He would only buy it if it broke out.

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Rogers Sugar Inc (RSI-T)
December 18, 2013

It is trying to base. He would only buy it if it broke out.

BUY
BUY
November 28, 2013

Had a lousy end to this year. Although sugar prices were strong, they just weren’t able to ship the volume and there is a price war. They did pay out a special dividend this year of $0.36.

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Rogers Sugar Inc (RSI-T)
November 28, 2013

Had a lousy end to this year. Although sugar prices were strong, they just weren’t able to ship the volume and there is a price war. They did pay out a special dividend this year of $0.36.

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