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General Comment by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Bias Subject Owned

Educational Segment.  How to Play the Canadian Dollar in Coming Months.  People are paying more and more attention to currencies.  In early 2015 Canada surprised us by lowering interest rates.  Now they have raised them.  It has had a meaningful impact on the Canadian dollar.  There are three factors for currency decisions:  (a) Oil prices (inverse); (b) Interest rate differential between CAD and US 2 year rate; (c) Net speculative positions in the Canadian dollar.  Oil could potentially move us up if it went up, but there are only a couple of months of potential increases left in this year.  We have probably seen the high end of the Canadian dollar last week.  It should settle into $.77.  He is playing it as a being in a new trading range.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

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