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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

2017-03-13

General Comment by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Bias Subject Owned
CAUTIOUS STOCKS & ETFs _N/A

Educational Segment: Market Drawdowns. What he calls “market noise” is a 5% correction or less. He looked at the peaks and the lowest lows in a 4-year business cycle since 1920. Looking at the drawdowns over the years, you can see the great depression, where 86% was the drawdown in US large caps. We’ve had several in the 50% range. However, the average surprisingly was 13.4%, and the average was only 10 months long. You tend to get a 5%-13% correction at least once a year, so it is pretty normal to get volatility in the markets. Drawing down a little further, he has a one-year version, which shows that we get more frequent declines. The interesting thing is, if we are down 13.4% from the previous peak, and we look out one year knowing that the bear decline is about 10 months, this is the time to start investing, to get aggressive once the markets are down. Your forward returns go up exponentially from a low point, compared to putting money to work at a high point. We are probably due for a downturn that is going to be about 24% at some point in the next year or 2, so he is playing defence because of that. Once we are down 13.4%, he’ll be thinking about buying.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc. http://www.etfcm.com

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