|UNKNOWN||NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs||_N/A|
Markets. He is calling for a correction after the Trump rally. Statistically, most times from the beginning of the year until some point later, you can buy the market cheaper than when the year first started (80% of the time). US Earnings season gets ticking this Friday. There has been a huge move in some of the banks since the election, looking at higher interest rates and deregulation. The reality may be much different than the market is looking for. Net interest margins will not be meaningfully impacted yet. A year from now we will see the impact of interest rate increases. Hopefully now banks will have freer use of their capital. Are autos looking at trade wars – it has not come out except in the twittisphere. Oil poked above $50 and shale producer rig count rose in the US. Over the next 6 months it will go up to $56 and then will remain constant for 4 or 5 years. It remains questionable whether OPEC can execute on their deal. We have not seen the impact of Brexit and won’t for a year or two. There will be a hard line on both sides as to what that looks like.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc. http://www.etfcm.com