Recent Opinions | StockChase
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Compiling comments that experts make about stocks while on public TV.

Recent Opinions

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Date Signal Company Expert Opinion Price
2017-02-14 DON'T BUY Blackstone Group LP
BX-N
David Burrows

KKR & Co (KKR-N) or Blackstone (BX-N)? He prefers an asset manager that is focused on public market equities. Asset classes are always being revalued. At certain times, certain asset classes do better than others. We have just gone through 10 years where regulation, compliance and rules around being a public company went through the roof, and it became very, very expensive. During that time, managing investing in private companies became very attractive, as they didn’t have the same problems. However, many private companies trade at higher valuations than public market companies, and yet public market companies are liquid every day and can be bought or sold. We have entered a period of many years where public market equities and developed markets, are likely to outperform. Asset managers in that area are under-owned and under-loved, and things changing for the better. Multiples are expanding. Prefers Morgan Stanley (MS-N).


Price: $30.450
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-14 COMMENT Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
CM-T
Ryan Bushell

Metrics look good relative to the other banks. However, it is cheaper for a reason. At current levels, he feels it is as attractive as the other banks. On the positive side, they have taken the tack of increasing payout ratios, which means a higher dividend yield and more dividend increases. More domestically focused than the others.


Price: $115.810
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-02-14 TOP PICK Canadian Natural Rsrcs
CNQ-T
Ryan Bushell

A lot of the large Canadian oil producers have gone on sale recently. There are 2 big concerns in the market. One is the possible border adjustment tax, which would raise the price of retail gasoline in the US, and he doesn’t think that is likely to pass. The 2nd is how much production comes on in the US and what happens with the OPEC deal. The WTI strip has hung in their pretty solidly, even with some big inventory builds over the last couple of weeks. The stock is cheap. Dividend yield of 2.52%. (Analysts’ price target is $49.74.)


Price: $39.690
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 COMMENT CSX Corp
CSX-Q
David Burrows

He likes the US stock market right now and the sectors that are economically sensitive. Transports are very economically sensitive. This one has been a remarkable performer in this market. Part of this is that there is some expectation that Hunter Harrison is going to get his hands on this and try to work his magic. Because of this, the stock has really responded incredibly well over the last 6 weeks, and is a bit extended now.


Price: $48.000
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-14 PAST TOP PICK Cenovus Energy
CVE-T
Ryan Bushell

(A Top Pick Feb 29/16. Up 17.19%.) Low cost oil sands producer. A lot of US investors are more enamored with near-term production growth that might come from some of the shale producers in the US, but they are ultimately going to find that decline rates are going to hurt and they’ll have to replace the reserves. This company’s oil reserves are almost infinite.


Price: $17.950
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 BUY Dollarama Inc.
DOL-T
David Burrows

Even though retail has lagged a little, this company has a very specifically strong business model. If you want to have some exposure, he wouldn’t have a problem owning it.


Price: $102.650
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-14 TOP PICK Dow Chemical
DOW-N
David Burrows

This is a good company that is getting better. They are merging into DuPont (DD-N), and will wind up splitting into 3 pieces. The US has the lowest cost natural gas globally. In chemical companies, natural gas is the biggest cost. There are very persistent low natural gas prices because of what has happened with fracing in the US. The merging companies will likely unlock some value. They generated about a 20% dividend growth over the last 5 years. Dividend yield of 3.01%. (Analysts’ price target is $67.06.)


Price: $61.720
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 COMMENT Electronics Arts Inc
EA-Q
David Burrows

He really likes the video game space. You make money if you find a company or industry that is perceived to be good to begin with, but where there is some change that has taken place that allows them to take their business to a whole different level. It used to be that you would buy a disc to upgrade a videogame. Now you download a game, and you are in the heat of a battle, and you pay extra for another weapon. Their ability to generate cash from their properties has gone markedly upward. So, the multiple you pay for that business should expand. Not only are earnings growing, but the multiple of earnings that people are willing to pay is growing.


Price: $86.060
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 TOP PICK EnerCare Inc
ECI-T
Ryan Bushell

He likes this for the long-term. This services, sells and rents water heaters, furnaces and air conditioners. Increased penetration of rentals is really valuable for them longer-term. Good management team. Just did a big acquisition in the US where they are going to roll out rentals, which should be good for the company longer-term. Dividend yield of 4.86%. (Analysts’ price target is $21.60.)


Price: $19.020
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 COMMENT Enbridge
ENB-T
Ryan Bushell

This has done about 12% annualized total return since 1952. The future still looks bright. They have the line 3 replacement project, the largest capital project in their history, which is going through some regulatory hurdles, but thinks they will get it going. The merger with Spectra is another thing for them. The pipeline sector, is moving from sort of more in the “growth at a reasonable price” area into a more utility like cash flow arena. With a solid yield and the dividend growth, you can’t go too far wrong.


Price: $56.510
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 COMMENT Enbridge Income Fund Holdings
ENF-T
Ryan Bushell

Enbridge Income Fund (ENF-T) or Inter Pipeline (IPL-T)? These are not similar companies, but have similar stories. They are both slower growth companies with a slower dividend growth, but with a higher yield and more stability. It just a matter of how much you want to own of them in your portfolio and what your goal is. Ultimately both companies are solid.


Price: $34.330
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-02-14 BUY Freehold Royalties
FRU-T
Ryan Bushell

This has exposure to oil, which was the volatility in the stock in the last 1.5 years. As a royalty producer, it has almost zero CapX and very low leverage, so it is more defensive relative to other oil producers. Expects there will be a dividend increase, if not in Q1, then in Q2.This has exposure to oil, which was the volatility in the stock in the last 1.5 years. As a royalty producer, it has almost zero CapX and very low leverage, so it is more defensive relative to other oil producers. Expects there will be a dividend increase, if not in Q1, then in Q2.


Price: $13.200
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 PAST TOP PICK Fortis Inc.
FTS-T
Ryan Bushell

(A Top Pick Feb 29/16. Up 16.27%.) The 46th-47th year they’ve increased their dividend. A company he plans to own forever. It doesn’t get much more sustainable than gas/electric distribution, and they are one of the best in North America.


Price: $42.010
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 PAST TOP PICK General Electric
GE-N
David Burrows

(A Top Pick Feb 18/16. Up 6.26%.) Industrials have been a theme for him over the course of the year. About 20% of his portfolios are industrials, which is probably the most under-owned sector of the market, but the one with the most upside as we go out over the next 5 years.


Price: $30.280
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: No
2017-02-14 PAST TOP PICK Alphabet Inc (C)
GOOG-Q
David Burrows

(A Top Pick Feb 18/16. Up 17.92%.) Technology has been a theme for him all year. This continues to perform really, really well. At that time, the biggest things were the things that were working best. Over the course of the year, he has moved to include mid and smaller cap securities.


Price: $820.450
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 COMMENT Hydro One
H-T
Ryan Bushell

A steady Eddie stock. You aren’t going to make a fortune, but you can sleep well at night. With the potential of further de-regulations coming, some of their assets could be operated more efficiently. There are some opportunities for them to consolidate within the market, but it remains to be seen. The other large Canadian utilities are buying assets in the US, so it will be interesting to see how this one augments their growth rate longer-term. There are other investments in the space that he likes better. 3.5% dividend yield.


Price: $23.590
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-02-14 TOP PICK Home Depot
HD-N
David Burrows

He likes owning companies that can grow a dividend. This has about 2,200 locations and has been growing same-store sales at about 7% for the last 5 years. They’ve grown their dividend 21% a year over the last 5 years. If you think the consumer is improving, this is a good place to go. Technically, after having consolidated over the last year, the stock is breaking out. Dividend yield of 1.96%. (Analysts’ price target is $148.67.)


Price: $141.360
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 COMMENT IBM
IBM-N
David Burrows

There is lots working in large cap technology. The difficulty he has is that they are having a hard time growing. The stock is acting well and is certainly participating. He prefers Microsoft (MSFT-Q).


Price: $180.130
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-14 COMMENT Inter Pipeline
IPL-T
Ryan Bushell

Enbridge Income Fund (ENF-T) or Inter Pipeline (IPL-T)? These are not similar companies, but have similar stories. They are both slower growth companies with a slower dividend growth, but with a higher yield and more stability. This one probably has a little more potential given that it is a bit smaller so incremental projects means more for them. They have a proposal on a propylene plant in Western Canada, which would be very positive longer-term. Ultimately both companies are solid. It just a matter of how much you want to own of them in your portfolio and what your goal is.


Price: $28.780
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-02-14 DON'T BUY KKR & Co. LP
KKR-N
David Burrows

KKR & Co (KKR-N) or Blackstone (BX-N)? He prefers an asset manager that is focused on public market equities. Asset classes are always being revalued. At certain times, certain asset classes do better than others. We have just gone through 10 years where regulation, compliance and rules around being a public company went through the roof, and it became very, very expensive. During that time, managing investing in private companies became very attractive, as they didn’t have the same problems. However, many private companies trade at higher valuations than public market companies, and yet public market companies are liquid every day and can be bought or sold. We have entered a period of many years where public market equities and developed markets, are likely to outperform. Asset managers in that area are under-owned and under-loved, and things are changing for the better. Multiples are expanding. Prefers Morgan Stanley (MS-N).


Price: $18.010
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-14 DON'T BUY Coca-Cola Company
KO-N
David Burrows

Sectors that started performing better than the rest of the market in June 2016, were transports, industrials, financials, technology and materials. These are the groups that are positively correlated to rising inflation and rising real interest rates. They are the most economically sensitive sectors. Earnings have been improving for the last three quarters. Where money is coming from and going to come are sectors that benefit in low interest rates and low growth, to sectors that benefit in higher growth and a little higher inflation. Consumer staples don’t fit that category, and are being used as a source of funds. Doesn’t think you will get hurt badly with this, but feels you are just missing out.


Price: $40.530
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-14 COMMENT Manitoba Telecom Services
MBT-T
Ryan Bushell

Being acquired by Bell Canada (BCE-T). Accept the offer or just take the cash? You might as well wait for the tender offer and get the full price. If you already own BCE, you may not want to take shares, but take the cash instead. At current levels with a 5% yield, BCE is decent.


Price: $37.600
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-02-14 BUY on WEAKNESS Manulife Financial
MFC-T
Ryan Bushell

He was adding to his positions at the $17 level. Now the question is, how fast do interest rates rise, how far do the rise, and how much does it help them. On their most recent quarter, their core earnings beat estimates and were better than expected, but their headline earnings were $.01, because they lost a lot of money on hedging and interest rates. That is short term. He likes this for the long-term, but would be looking for a better entry point in the low $20s. 3.3% dividend yield.


Price: $24.950
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 COMMENT Martinrea
MRE-T
David Burrows

The auto space is battling the views that last year was a peak year for auto sales. A lot of people are thinking we are going to have a slowdown at some point. His view is that the consumer is improving globally. When he looks at a sector, he tends to look at securities that are acting the best. Picking a Canadian name, he would probably pick Linamar (LNR-T) or Magna (MG-T). However, the group is slowly improving. In a healthy market, the market should broaden, more and more stocks should participate, and this company looks like it has made the turn here. You are probably okay.


Price: $8.970
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-14 TOP PICK Morgan Stanley
MS-N
David Burrows

Since 1841, US equities have returned about 9% a year, versus bonds of about 05%. However, there are 2 extended periods; 1910 to 1945, and 1981 to 2016, where bonds and stocks gave roughly the same results, with less volatility in bonds. It’s no wonder that in both cases people got to like bonds a lot. In the late 1940s, when stocks started to outperform for the next 35 years, they went up 5 for 1. We have just come out of a period where bonds and stocks gave the same return. So arguably for the rest of our investing lives, we may see stocks outperform by a multiple in bonds. This one is a leader in institutional equities. 43% of their revenues come from wealth management. The wealth management business is the 2nd biggest in the US. This is a business that is firmly focused on domestic equity. The company has quietly transformed itself into a wealth management machine. Dividend yield of 1.74%. (Analysts’ price target is $48.35.)


Price: $46.040
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 BUY Nvidia Corp
NVDA-Q
David Burrows

This was a Top Pick about a year ago, and has been one of his best performing positions over the last year. He really likes semiconductors as a group and technology as a whole, because that is secular growth, i.e., there is change taking place that will go on for a long time. This company is in the absolute forefront of what is happening with things like self driving and Artificial Intelligence (AI). An expensive stock, but in technology, if it is good it should be expensive.


Price: $108.780
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 COMMENT Oclaro
OCLR-Q
David Burrows

Another example of an industry that is going through a change. The last time we were in a boom for fibre was the late 1990s, and they put way too much fibre in the ground, so we had too much capacity and the whole thing went to sleep. With the growth and boom in band width use, these networks are now getting strained, and are going through another uptick in replacement of some of the fibre and some of the fibre gear. This company sells transmitters and multiplexers that are used in fibre. A very interesting industry, because demand is really ramping up. This has doubled in the last 6 months, and has just recently technically broken out again. It is only trading at 13X next year’s earnings.


Price: $10.870
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 HOLD Pembina Pipeline Corp
PPL-T
Ryan Bushell

He likes management. Very conservative and have done a good job taking some gas fractionation business and turning it more fee for service, annuitizing the revenue. Pays out a consistent dividend with over a 4% yield. Thinks growth is still pretty good, but not as good as it was before. He is thinking of slightly reducing his position.


Price: $41.140
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 COMMENT Russel Metals
RUS-T
Ryan Bushell

Has been pretty volatile over the last 3-4 years. It has a significant amount of businesses that is geared towards energy services. Great management team. If it gets over $30, that is where you would want to take some profits. 5.5% dividend yield.


Price: $27.690
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 BUY Shopify Inc.
SHOP-T
David Burrows

This is really financial-technology, the platform for small and medium-sized Internet retailers that are selling their products. An enabler of Internet commerce. Growing very rapidly. In the very near term, it appears the market is favouring value over growth slightly more.


Price: $73.240
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 PAST TOP PICK Sherwin-Williams Co.
SHW-N
David Burrows

(A Top Pick Feb 18/16. Up 22.14%.) He really likes home building and the building industry in general. There is a big pent-up demand. As people renovate and build new homes, the paint companies are doing very, very well. (See Top Picks.)


Price: $309.900
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: No
2017-02-14 PAST TOP PICK Shaw Communication (B)
SJR.B-T
Ryan Bushell

(A Top Pick Feb 29/16. Up 25.43%.) This was the best performer in the group by far in the last 12 months.


Price: $28.070
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 COMMENT Suncor Energy Inc
SU-T
David Burrows

This is more of a cyclical trade than a long-term secular trade.


Price: $41.830
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-14 BUY on WEAKNESS Telus Corp
T-T
Ryan Bushell

The economic recovery in the West benefited them last year. This was the laggard in wireless, and then they were the leader in terms of subscriber additions, and now are at the back of the pack. He is waiting for this to get hit on some macro trade with interest rates. He would like to see it down another 5% combined with another dividend increase.


Price: $42.990
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 DON'T BUY Transalta Corp
TA-T
Ryan Bushell

Cut their dividend pretty significantly about 1.5 years ago, and there isn’t really a lot of catalysts in the stock. A coal fired power production largely with some CPA’s that are rolling off over time, and then they will ultimately need to replace their fleet with natural gas, renewables or some combination of the 2. With a yield at 2.1%, and without a lot of growth, there are better options elsewhere.


Price: $7.620
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: No
2017-02-14 DON'T BUY Teva Pharmaceutical
TEVA-N
David Burrows

There are a lot of big problems here. Their CEO has resigned, there were corruption charges in a number of countries for bribery, a couple of their big drugs have come under attack by generics. We are in a bull market, so do you really want to fight this battle?


Price: $34.900
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-14 COMMENT Trans Canada Corp
TRP-T
Ryan Bushell

This has had a fantastic run over the last year or so. Pretty much everything has gone right for them. He would prefer a better entry point. Has been trimming his position over the last 6 months. The long-term dividend growth rate is going to be in the 8%-12% range. The Columbian pipeline acquisition looks really good. 3.2% dividend yield.


Price: $62.260
Subject: CANADIAN LARGE (DIVIDENDS)
Bias: OPTIMISTIC
Owned: Yes
2017-02-14 BUY Veresen Inc
VSN-T
David Burrows

This company was able to do some deals over the last while that will be quite accretive over time. The majority of his exposure in energy is in a couple of very big services companies, and then these infrastructure companies. This stock is behaving well.


Price: $14.190
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: BULLISH
Owned: Yes
2017-02-13 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Markets.  He is not sure we will see anything significant coming out of the Trump/ Trudeau meeting.  If you X-out all the commodities we export to the US, there is a pretty balanced trade between Canada and the US.  If they target specific industries those industries could get hurt.  He did not see softwood lumber on the agenda for today.  Trump’s idea of fair may be very different than Trudeau’s idea of fair.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Paying the S&P-500 – Pullback possible?  He thinks we will get some disappointment risk on execution.  The tax plan is probably not being implemented until 2018 now.  He thinks there will be a buying opportunity coming soon with a 5-10% pullback as there is one every year.  He would not be a buyer of the S&P-500 for the long term right now, but it is good for a trade.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-13 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Canadian version of ZPW-T?  He does not think there is one coming because there is not the depth to the Canadian market. 


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2017-02-13 SELL A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Gold.  He was buying XGD-T, ZGD-T when gold was around $1150 a month and a half back.  He has since sold out of XGD-T.  He trimmed GLD-N last week.  He does not know if Trump will be bullish for gold or not.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: Yes
2017-02-13 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Educational Segment. Using Stops. The value approach looks for a range of support and how you buy into it.  Anchoring is a behaviour where you want to try to get your money back.  That is the wrong way to think about it.  You should think about where you should put the money in a losing stock.  Get out of a position if it is not working.  You should have a plan on when to get out.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE & ETFs
Bias: UNKNOWN
Owned: _N/A
2017-02-13 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
Paul Harris, CFA

Markets.  Trudeau and Trump should be talking about the economic issues that both countries share, rather than how to deal with refugees and so on.  NAFTA is important to both Canada and the US.  Energy and financials have upside potential.  You need to see some action being taken for the stocks to move higher.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: BEAR
Owned: _N/A
2017-02-13 N/A A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John Zechner

Market. It was interesting to see the $20 trillion mark on the S&P 500. The US government is going to go through a level of $20 trillion worth of debt as well. He is reducing his positions in financials and materials. He is not finding a lot of things to buy in this market. Valuations are too high, and there is not any fear out there. Volatility is low, and no one thinks anything can go wrong. There is a time for caution. Volatility is low and people are not worried, and that is the time when you should be worried. Economic growth is OK, but he questions if it can get ahead of inflation which is coming a little bit higher. The game of low interest rates is somewhat over. Valuations are excessively high and bullishness is high. Once you get to thinking you are missing the party, the party is almost over. There is a lot more risk to the downside than there is to the upside in the short term.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: _N/A
2017-02-13 COMMENT A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
A Commentary
John Zechner

Energy? Canadian oil stocks have been under a lot of pressure this year. A lot of that was US selling on the basis of taxes, royalties and changes in Canada, so they have been dumping Canadian stocks. He is not a real Bull on oil long-term. Thinks it is stuck in the $50-$60 range for a period of time. Shale production in the US and global production is going to limit price gains. Has been picking away at some of the names in the past week or so, buying on some of the weakness.


Price: $0.020
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-13 COMMENT Air Canada (B)
AC-T
John Zechner

They have their pilots and the tail end crew under contract for years to come, and it doesn’t look like there is going to be any fuel shocks. He keeps waiting for them to stumble, but they don’t. Management has done a fantastic job in turning the company around, and getting so much more efficient; the operations, fleet management, etc. On a valuation basis, it is only trading at about 5X earnings and 3X Enterprise Value to EBITDA. If it could show a little more consistency in earnings growth going forward, it could probably have a higher multiple attributed to it. Thinks there is still a lot of potential upside, but it is an airline stock and it is always going to be volatile.


Price: $13.950
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2017-02-13 TOP PICK AutoCanada Inc.
ACQ-T
Paul Harris, CFA

It fell a lot because of Western Canadian exposure.  Management was going to do 3-5 acquisitions per year and then did 14 in one year.  As things fell apart they did not integrate their acquisitions well.  Now they have done this and they have integrated their back office as well, making it easier to integrate acquisitions in the future.  Albertans are big spenders on cars.  (Analysts’ target: $25.71).


Price: $25.370
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: BEAR
Owned: Yes
2017-02-13 COMMENT Amazon.com
AMZN-Q
Paul Harris, CFA

A very interesting company.  Trades at a ridiculous multiple so there are a lot of expectations in the stock.  They are growing their AWS cloud business exponentially and their retail business is the core retail business in the world.  It is hard for so many other retailers to complete with them.  They need to create the revenue.  You have to expect a lot of volatility if you own this thing.


Price: $836.530
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: BEAR
Owned: No
2017-02-13 HOLD Aecon Group Inc
ARE-T
John Zechner

He likes this company. Not only are they strong in infrastructure, but are also strong in energy spending, in particular in their Alberta acquisition they did a couple of years ago. They’ve been improving their operating margins. Volatility was always a big problem, where they got the big giant contracts and ended up losing money because of cost overruns. They’ve got that under better control and are stabilizing the earnings growth.


Price: $16.680
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-13 PAST TOP PICK Bank of America
BAC-N
Paul Harris, CFA

(Top Pick Feb 11/16, Up 113.46%) They had a big run after Trump came in.  The financials are not expensive at these levels.  It is still below book value.  They are massively overcapitalized so there should be buybacks.  You need to see actualization of some of the policies coming in.


Price: $23.400
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: BEAR
Owned: Yes
2017-02-13 DON'T BUY Bank of America
BAC-N
John Zechner

Recently Shorted this in his Hedge Fund. People are paying up for a turn in earnings. It is coming, but maybe not at the rate that was to be expected. The positive view on the yield curve for financials is certainly positive. Interest rates had a bit of a move to the upside, but they seemed to have stalled out. Unwinding Dodd-Frank is going to take a long time. He wouldn’t own it at this time.


Price: $23.400
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2017-02-13 BUY Brookfield Asset Management (A)
BAM.A-T
Paul Harris, CFA

He sold recently because he preferred another opportunity, but there is nothing wrong with it.  When you buy them they own an interest in all the others.  It will trade at a discount to the NAV.  When they sell assets to the other division it is not clear how the pricing is determined.   He prefers this to the individual parts.


Price: $48.160
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: BEAR
Owned: No
2017-02-13 PAST TOP PICK Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
BMW-GR
Paul Harris, CFA

(Top Pick Feb 11/16, Up 34.93%) A great brand.  It is a very unique company that is 40% owned by one family in Germany.  China continues to do well for them.  During QE in the US, the car industry collapsed, and then there was a huge buying spree.  In Europe this had not happened yet when he bought it. 


Price: $0.000
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: BEAR
Owned: Yes
2017-02-13 TOP PICK Blackstone Group LP
BX-N
Paul Harris, CFA

They have a private equity business, hedge funds and real estate.  He thinks this is a very good environment for a private equity firm.  They bought a lot of cheap assets in 07/08.  They have a lot of capital to buy things with.  Debt is not that expensive.  (Analysts’ target: $35.13) .


Price: $30.450
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: BEAR
Owned: Yes
2017-02-13 COMMENT Blackstone Group LP
BX-N
John Zechner

This is very deal driven and very opaque driven on how they make their money and what the current investments are. Had a lot in energy about a year ago, which has done well. But look at the volatility in the stock since it went public. It has been so up and down. Any sort of turn-down in the market could be a problem. A very volatile stock. He would rather own this at the bottom of the cycle rather than the top. Dividend yield of 6%+.


Price: $30.450
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: No
2017-02-13 TOP PICK Caterpillar
CAT-N
John Zechner

*Short* They’ve missed expectations 14 quarters in a row, 5 down-years of earnings. Management just said expectations were too high for next year. On their website, they are selling used equipment at a discount, rather than new equipment. Doesn’t see where growth is coming from. Dividend yield of 3.13%. (Analysts’ price target is $98.45.)


Price: $98.500
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN - LARGE
Bias: CAUTIOUS
Owned: Yes
2017-02-13 BUY Canadian Natural Rsrcs
CNQ-T
Paul Harris, CFA

It is similar to SU-T, being a big cap, and it is important to own big caps in this industry.  They will do well whether oil goes up or drifts lower from here.


Price: $39.200
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: BEAR
Owned: Yes
2017-02-13 BUY Canadian National R.R.
CNR-T
Paul Harris, CFA

18 times earnings.  You have a growing US economy and the Canadian economy is turning around.  There are large barriers to entry.  There are fewer competitors and those competitors are more rational.  He thinks you will see some increases in pricing.  It is a great place to be right now.  It trades at a discount to US peers. 


Price: $93.460
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: BEAR
Owned: Unknown
2017-02-13 BUY DH Corporation
DH-T
Paul Harris, CFA

He bought more when it fell after earnings came out last quarter.  Hopefully this quarter they get some of the business from the RFPs they put out previously.  Over the next couple of quarters you will see some changes in the company.  The dividend is reasonable and he was glad they cut it.  There is opportunity for the stock to go up from here.


Price: $23.520
Subject: NORTH AMERICAN/GLOBAL
Bias: BEAR
Owned: Yes
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